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9
Paranormal Phenomena
BACKGROUND
The primary purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the scientific evidence
on parapsychological techniques in selected areas. A more complete
understanding of the topic, however, requires that we provide background
on the military's interest in these phenomena and treat the conceptual
issue of how people come to believe as they do. This background section
includes a discussion of the phenomena and the military's interest in
them as well as an overview of the committee's focus. A brief examination
of the different kinds of justifications for the claims is followed by a more
detailed treatment of the evidence in areas that have produced large
literatures: remote viewing, random number generators' and what are
called Ganzfeld (whole visual field) experiments. In addition, we describe
experimental work that the committee actually witnessed by visiting a
parapsychological laboratory. Despite the growing scientific tradition in
some of these areas, many people continue to rely on qualitative or
experiential evidence to support their beliefs; we discuss the problems
associated with qualitative evidence in conjunction with the research on
cognitive and emotional biases, which is reviewed in the paper by Dale
Griffin (Appendix B). Finally, the chapter summarizes the committee's
. .
mayor cone uslons.
THE NATURE OF THE PHENOMENA
Parapsychologists divide psi the term applied to all psychic phenom-
ena into two broad categories: extrasensory perception (ESP) and
169
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170
psychokinesis (PK). Included in ESP are telepathy, precognition, and
clairvoyance, all of which refer to methods of gathering information about
objects or thoughts without the intervention of known sensory mecha-
nisms. Popularly called mind over matter, PK refers to the influence of
thoughts upon objects without the intervention of known physical proc
ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
esses.
A presentation to the committee by several military officers described
in some detail the results of experiments in remote viewing carried out
at both SRI International and the Engineering Anomalies Research
Laboratory at Princeton University. In these experiments subjects are
said to have more or less accurately described a geographical location
being visited by a target team. Although the human subjects have no way
of normally knowing the target location, the examples recounted appear
to indicate, at first glance, some striking correspondences between their
descriptions and the actual sites. These studies have been related by
some persons to reported out-of-body experiences.
The presentation included discussion of psychic mind-altering tech-
niques, the levitation claims of transcendental meditation groups, psy-
chotronic weapons, psychic metal bending, dowsing, thought photogra-
phy, and bioenergy transfer. It was indicated that the Soviet Union is far
ahead of the United States in developing potential applications of such
paranormal phenomena, in particular psychically controlling and influ-
encing minds at a distance. At the presentation, personal accounts were
given of spoon-bending parties, in which participants believe they have
caused cutlery to bend with the power of their minds, as well as instances
of self-hypnosis to control pain and cure illness, walking barefoot on fire
and handling hot coals without being burned, leaving one's body at will,
and bursting clouds by psychic means.
The media and popular publications, especially in recent years, have
discussed various aspects of psychic warfare. Three recent books, by
Ebon (1983), McRae (1984), and Targ and Harary (1984), have attempted
to document Soviet and American efforts to develop military and intel-
ligence applications of alleged paranormal phenomena. These accounts
have been augmented by newspaper stories, magazine articles, and
television programs. Many of these sources acknowledge the speculative
nature of the proposed applications, but others report that some of the
techniques already exist and work.
The claimed phenomena and applications range from the incredible to
the outrageously incredible. The "antimissile time warp," for example,
is supposed to somehow deflect attack by nuclear warheads so that they
~ ~ +~ time ~nc1 r~rpl~l~. among the ancient dinosaurs, thereby
leaving us unharmed but destroying many dinosaurs (and, presumably,
some of our evolutionary ancestors). Other psychotropic weapons, such
-
W lil Ll ~ll~ll ~LI111- ~-''- ~-~
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PARANORMAL PHENOMENA
171
as the "hyperspatial nuclear howitzer," are claimed to have equally
bizarre capabilities. Many of the sources cite the claim that Soviet
psychotropic weapons were responsible for the 1976 outbreak of Legion-
naires, disease, as well as the 1963 sinking of the nuclear submarine
Thresher.
POTENTIAL MILITARY APPLICATIONS
Some people, including some military decision makers, can imagine
potential military applications of the two broad categories of psychic
phenomena. In their view, ESP, if real and controllable, could be used
for intelligence gathering and, because it includes "precognition," ESP
could also be used to anticipate the actions of an enemy. It is believed
that PK, if realizable, might be used to jam enemy computers, prematurely
trigger nuclear weapons, and incapacitate weapons and vehicles. More
specific applications envisioned involve behavior modification; inducing
sickness, disorientation, or even death in a distant enemy; communicating
with submarines; planting thoughts in individuals without their knowledge;
hypnotizing individuals at a distance; psychotropic weapons of various
kinds; psychic shields to protect sensitive information or military instal-
lations; and the like. One suggested application is a conception of the
"First Earth Battalion," made up of "warrior monks," who will have
mastered almost all the techniques under consideration by the committee,
including the use of ESP, leaving their bodies at will, levitating, psychic
healing, and walking through walls.
THE COMMITTEE S FOCUS
Although such colorful examples provide the context for our agenda,
the cumulative body of data in the discipline of parapsychology enables
us to judge the degree to which paranormal claims should be taken
seriously. Since 1882 reports of both naturally occurring incidents and
phenomena in laboratory settings have been accumulated in journals,
monographs, and books. Just to survey the reports in the refereed journals
of parapsychology would be an enormous undertaking. As scientists, our
inclination is, of course, to restrict ourselves to the evidence that purports
to be scientific. But the alleged phenomena that have apparently gained
most attention and that have apparently convinced many proponents do
not come from the parapsychological laboratory. Nothing approaching a
scientific literature supports the claims for psychotropic weaponry,
psychic metal bending, out-of-body experiences, and other potential
applications supported by many proponents.
The phenomena are real and important in the minds of proponents, so
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EI4HANClNC HUMAN PERFORMANCE
we attempt to evaluate them fairly. Although we cannot rely solely on a
scientific data base to evaluate the claims, their credibility ultimately
must stand or fall on the basis of data from scientific research that is
subject to adequate control and is potentially replicable.
We divided the task into two parts. First, we looked at the best scientific
arguments for the reality of psychic phenomena. Our sponsors, as well
as our own appraisal of the current status of parapsychology, indicated
that the two most influential scientific programs were the experiments on
remote viewing and the experiments on psychokinesis using random
event generators. In addition, we looked at the research on the Ganzfeld
(whole visual field) because this, in the opinion of many parapsychologists,
is the most likely candidate for a replicable experiment. We also report
on a parapsychological experiment that the committee itself witnessed.
Second, we considered the arguments of proponents who rely on what
they call qualitative as opposed to quantitative evidence for the paranor-
mal. Such evidence depends on personal experience or the testimony of
others who have had such experience. Most, if not all, of this evidence
cannot be evaluated by scientific standards, yet it has created compelling
beliefs among many who have encountered it. Witnessing or having an
anomalous experience can be more powerful than large accumulations of
quantitative, scientific data as a method of creating and reinforcing beliefs.
Because personal experience rather than scientific data has been the
source of most beliefs in the paranormal, we have devoted some of our
resources to considering this sort of cognitive method as a tool for
achieving knowledge.
STANDARDS OF EVIDENCE
Diverse justifications have been offered for pursuing paranormal claims.
One argument asserts that paranormal phenomena may no longer be
anomalous, given the implications of contemporary quantum mechanics.
Indeed, a few physicists have supported some parapsychologists in
maintaining that certain forms of precognition and psychokinesis are
consistent with some interpretations of quantum theory. The other major
argument is that we have no choice but to get involved because the
Soviet Union already has a program to develop military applications of
psychic phenomena.
Several proponents, including some scientists, firmly believe that
paranormal phenomena have been scientifically demonstrated several
times over. At the same time, most scientists do not believe that psi
exists. Many persons on both sides believe this paradox to be the result
of irrational and dogmatic belief systems. The proponents accuse the
critics of being closed-minded and bigoted. The critics imply that the
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PARANORMAL PHENOMENA
173
proponents have allowed wishful thinking to bias their judgment and that
they are incompetent scientists and are self-deceived. Both sides can
point to examples to back their positions.
One essential question confronts the committee: What does an impartial
examination of the scientific evidence reveal about the existence of psi?
Such an examination assumes that clear standards exist for judging the
adequacy of the evidence, which, in turn, raises the issue of what
constitutes sufficient evidence. That issue involves many difficult philo-
sophical, theoretical, and methodological matters. For example, Palmer,
in his '`An Evaluative Report on the Current Status of Parapsychology"
(1985), denies that current parapsychological experiments can provide
any evidence for the existence of psi. This is because psi implies
paranormality and, according to Palmer, we cannot argue that a given
effect has a paranormal cause until we have an adequate theory of
paranormality. He further argues, however, that parapsychological ex-
periments can and do provide evidence for the existence of anomalies.
By an anomaly, Palmer means a statistically significant deviation from
chance expectation that cannot readily be explained by existing scientific
theories. The burden of Palmer's paper is that just such anomalies have
been demonstrated.
Because parapsycnologists other than Palmer do not make this distinc-
tion between demonstrating an anomaly and testing a theory of paranor-
mality, we do not carry on this distinction in our own assessment of the
evidence. We tend to agree with Palmer on this matter, however. When
we talk about evidence for psi in the remainder of this chapter, we are
using psi in the neutral sense of an apparent anomaly rather than in the
stronger sense of a paranormal phenomenon.
MINIMAL CRITERIA
Fortunately, critics and parapsychologists appear to agree on the
general requirements necessary to demonstrate psi in a parapsychological
experiment. Both Palmer (1985) and James E. Alcock (Appendix B)
discuss such criteria in their respective papers. As Palmer points out, psi
is defined negatively as a statistical departure from a chance baseline
that cannot be accounted for by chance, sensory cues, or known artifacts.
Such a negative definition implies the minimal criteria required to justify
a conclusion that psi has been demonstrated.
Given the statistical aspect, it is imperative that the data be collected
in such a way that the underlying probability model and assumptions of
the statistical test are fulfilled. This means that targets must be adequately
randomized and that each trial in the experiment must be independent of
the preceding ones and, of course, the statistical procedures must be
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74
ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
applied and interpreted correctly. Given that all ordinary explanations
must be ruled out, the experimenter must take special precautions to
ensure that sensory cues, recording errors, subject fraud, and other
alternatives have been prevented. Although it is impossible to rule out
completely every possible contaminant or to anticipate every alternative,
there are reasonable standards that most parapsychologists would agree
should be followed.
Because different research paradigms have their own special require-
ments, no single set of standards can be specified in advance for all
parapsychological experiments. Experiments with electronic number
generators, for example, rarely have problems with data recording, but
they do require special methods such as tests of randomness and attention
to the immediate physical environment that are unnecessary with more
traditional parapsychological experiments. One requirement for assessing
the adequacy of a given experiment is that its procedures and methods
of analysis be adequately documented. Unless we know how the targets
were selected, how the results were analyzed, how the possibility of
sensory leakage was prevented, and how other such aspects of the study
were carried out, we have no basis for evaluating the quality of the
information provided by the experiment.
GLOBAL CRITERIA
The criteria mentioned in the preceding paragraphs apply to the
individual experiment. More global criteria come into play when one
wants to evaluate an entire research program or set of experiments. Here
we look for such things as replicability, robustness, lawfulness, manip-
ulability, and coherent theory. These criteria deal with the coherence
and intelligibility of the alleged phenomena. It is in terms of such global
criteria that parapsychological research has been especially vulnerable.
Much of the objectivity involved in assessing the adequacy of research
applies to judging individual experiments. But science is cumulative and
depends not so much on the outcome of a single experiment as on
consistent and lawful patterns of results across many experiments carried
out in a variety of independent settings. Lawful consistency in this sense,
according to both parapsychologists and their critics, has never been
found in parapsychological investigations in the history of psychic
research. Recently a few parapsychologists have expressed the hope that
the experiments on remote viewing, random number generators, and the
Ganzfeld (the very ones we have chosen to examine in detail in this
report) may actually yield the long-sought replicability. The type of
replicability that has been claimed so far is the possibility of obtaining
significant departures from the chance baseline In only a proportion of
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PARANORMAL PHENOMENA
175
the experiments, which is a kind of replicability quite different from the
consistent and lawful patterns of covariation found in other areas of
Inquiry.
Despite the fact that scientific progress in a given area depends on the
accumulation of lawful and consistent patterns across many experiments,
the methods for deciding that such consistency exists are still quite
primitive in comparison with the standards for judging the adequacy of
a single experiment. Indeed, it is only within the past few years that
serious attention has been devoted to developing objective and standard-
ized procedures for evaluating the consistencies across a body of inde-
pendent studies. For the most part, judgment about what a body of
investigations demonstrates is still a surprisingly intuitive and haphazard
process. This probably has not been a serious drawback in those areas
of inquiry in which the basic phenomena are robust and experiments can
be conducted with high confidence that the predicted relations will be
obtained; but such impressionistic means for aggregating the outcomes
of several experiments in the domain of parapsychology open the door
to all the motivational and cognitive biases discussed in the paper prepared
for the committee by Griffin. Not only are the data and alleged correlations
erratic and elusive in this field, but their very existence is open to
question.
EVALUATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE
To evaluate the best scientific evidence on the existence of psi, and
with the advice of proponents and our sponsors, we conducted site visits
to some of the most notable parapsychological laboratories. The para-
psychology subcommittee (see Appendix C) visited Robert Jahn's Engi-
neering Anomalies Research Laboratory at Princeton University, where
it witnessed presentations and demonstrations regarding psychokinetic
experiments on random number generators. Jahn and his associates also
briefed the subcommittee on the current status of their work in remote
. .
viewing.
The subcommittee also visited Helmut Schmidt's laboratory at the
Mind Science Foundation, San Antonio, Texas. Schmidt pioneered the
use of random number generators in parapsychology experiments in 1969.
His is considered one of the two major research programs on psychokinesis
(the second is Jahn's).
As an additional posssible input, the committee agreed to participate
in a psychokinetic experiment of new design with Helmut Schmidt.
Specifically, Schmidt accepted the suggestion that the committee's con-
sultant, Paul Horwitz, be included in the conduct of the experiment. The
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ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
work has not yet begun, however, and it now appears that we will not
have any results to report before our terms expire.
The chair of the parapsychology subcommittee also visited SRI Inter-
national, another major laboratory studying psychic effects on random
number generators. (This latter research group argues that the observed
effects are not due to psychokinesis but rather represent a special form
of precognition.) The subcommittee chair also attended the meetings of
the Parapsychological Association held at Sonoma State College in
California. The entire committee made a site visit to Cleve Backster's
laboratory in San Diego (arranged to coincide with the committee's
meeting in La Jolla, California).
These site visits enabled the committee to observe firsthand the
experimental arrangements and equipment used by some of the major
contributors to parapsychological research. They also provided us an
opportunity to discuss results, interpretations, and problems with a few
important investigators. We were impressed with the sincerity and
dedication of these investigators and believe that they are trying to
conduct their research in the best scientific tradition. We also got the
impression that this type of research involves many unresolved problems
and still has a long way to go before it develops standardized, easily
replicable procedures. The information obtained from these site visits
does not provide an adequate basis for making scientific judgments. For
this we rely, as we would in other fields of science, on a careful survey
of the literature.
RESEARCH ON REMOTE VIEWING
The SRI Remote Viewing Program
Since the early 1970s, probably the best known research program
in parapsychology has been the experiments in remote viewing initiated
by physicists Harold Puthoff and Russell Targ when they were at
SRI International. In a typical remote viewing experiment a subject,
or percipient, remains in a room or laboratory with an experimenter,
while a target team visits a randomly selected geographical site
(e.g., a shopping mall, an outdoor arena, the Palo Alto airport, the
Hoover tower). Neither the experimenter nor the subject has been
given any information about the target. Once the experimenter and
the subject are closeted in the laboratory, they wait for 30 minutes
before the subject begins to describe his or her impressions of the
target site.
Meanwhile the target team, consisting of two to four members of
the SRI staff, obtains instructions for going to a randomly chosen
target site from another SRI staff member. They then drive to the
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PARANORMAL PHENOMENA
_ _
. . .
-- r ~r -A
177
designated target site and remain there for an agreed-on 15-minute
period (after allowing approximately 30 minutes to reach the site).
During the time that the target team remains at the target site, the
subject describes his or her impressions into a tape recorder and also
makes any drawings that would help to clarify those impressions.
When the target team returns to the laboratory, all the participants
listen to the tape recording of the subject's impressions. Then all
the participants go to the target site, where the subject is allowed
to see how closely his or her impressions agreed with the actual
target.
The first subject to participate in such a formal series of trials was
the late Pat Price. In the first series, consisting of nine sessions, the
duration of each session was 30 minutes. The transcript for each
session is rich in detail; the one published transcript in Targ and
Puthoff's first book runs to almost six printed pages (Tar" and
Puthoff, 1977~.
Given such data, how does one decide if the experiment was a
success? Did Price's descriptions, for example, convey correct knowl-
edge of the different target sites? In fact, two methods have been
used to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote viewing. One method
is simply to compare the description with the target and make a
judgment as to whether the correspondence is sufficient to claim a
"hit." The second method uses an independent judge to rank the
degree to which each description matches each site and then applies
statistical tests to decide if the association is greater than chance.
Unprecedented success was claimed for the early remote viewing
experiments in terms of both methods (Tar" and Puthoff, 1974, 1977;
Puthoff and Targ, 19761. Many examples were supplied of dramatic
correspondences between impressions of the percipient and the physical
details of the actual target. Such correspondences, no matter how
dramatic and compelling? do not carry scientific weight, because it
is impossible to assess their probabilities. In addition, much psycholog-
ical research indicates how such subjective validation can create
strong. but false, illusions of matching (see below).
The more formal evidence from the rankings of independent judges
was also impressive. The first formal series of nine trials resulted in
~ .. . , . . . . ~ . . .. . . . . . . .
seven ot the transcripts being ranked 1 against their intended larger
sites by the independent judge. Only one such ranking would be
expected by chance. Puthoff and Targ reported the probability of
such an outcome being due to chance as only 0.0000029. The second
formal series, using Hella Hammid, was equally impressive, producing
five first places and four second places in the rankings of transcripts
against target sites.
Although subsequent series by Targ and Puthoff, as well as by
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ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
other investigators, have not always yielded such overwhelmingly
impressive results, most of them have continued to display highly
significant outcomes (Tar" and Harary, 1984~. On the surface, at
least, this is a reliable, simple, and highly effective recipe for
producing paranormal communication. Especially appealing is the
claim that remote viewing works with just about everyone. Targ and
Harary, for example, provide exercises for anyone who wants to
develop and improve his or her ability to pick up information at remote
sites. Neither space nor time, its proponents assert, is a barrier. The
percipient can pick up information from the surface of Jupiter as well
as from target sites that can be visited at some future time.
Scientific Assessment of Remote Viewing
After the first remote viewing experiments were conducted in the
early 1970s, many investigators throughout the world tried to follow
suit. Most of them believed that their findings supported the claims
of the SRI International researchers. The majority of these experi-
ments, however, consisted of informal demonstrations rather than
formal scientific experiments and relied solely on subjective matching.
In the past 15 years, the number of formal experimental replications
of the SRI remote viewing experiments has been surprisingly few.
Targ and Harary (1984) include as an appendix in their book a
report by Hansen, Schlitz, and Tart that evaluates all the known
remote viewing experiments conducted from 1973 through 1982. "In
an examination of the twenty-eight formal published reports of
attempted replications of remote viewing," write Targ and Harary,
"Hansen, Schlitz, and Tart at the Institute for Parapsychology
found that more than half of the papers reported successful out-
comes." They concluded: "We have found that more than half
(fifteen out of twenty-eight) of the published formal experiments
have been successful, where only one in twenty would be expected
by chance."
Two comments may be in order with respect to the foregoing
conclusion. First, given the enormous publicity and the unusually
strong claims, 28 formal experiments in 10 years seems surprisingly
few. In comparison, the Ganzfeld psi experiments produced approxi-
mately twice as many formal experiments during the same interval.
Second, 13 of the 28 formal experiments, or 46 percent, failed to
claim successful outcomes. This rate of failure is much higher than
what might have been expected on the basis of the earlier claims by
Targ and Puthoff (1977), namely, that they had succeeded with every
subject they had tried.
.
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PARANORMAL PHENOMENA
Even 15 successful outcomes out of 28 tries
179
is impressive, especially
of the listed studies
by parapsychological standards. An inspection
however, suggests that the 28 formal experiments vary considerably
in their importance. Some of these "published formal experiments"
appeared as brief reports or abstracts of papers delivered at meetings
of the Parapsychological Association or similar organizations. Others
appeared in print only as brief or informal reports in book chapters
or letters to the editor. Altogether, 15 of the 28 were published
under conditions that fall short of scientific acceptability. Only 13,
or 46 percent, of the experiments were published under refereed
auspices. As in other sciences, only published reports that have
undergone peer review and are adequately documented can be con-
sidered seriously as part of the scientific data base.
Of the 13 scientifically reported experiments, 9 are classified as
successful in their outcomes by Hansen et al. (Tar" and Harary,
1984~. Seven of these nine experiments were conducted by Targ and
Puthoff at SRI International, the remaining two at other labora-
tories. This relatively small harvest of nine "successful" experiments
suffers from the fact that each is seriously flawed. A variety of
problems afflicts the published reports on remote viewing. The
documentation, even according to many parapsychologists, is seriously
inadequate. Attempts by both neutral and skeptical investigators to
gain access to the raw data have typically been thwarted or strongly
resisted. Because the essence of scientific justification is public
accessibility to the data, this relative inaccessibility suggests that
much of the remote viewing data base is not part of science.
Most of the reasons for questioning the acceptability of the evi-
dence for remote viewing lie in a methodological flaw that char-
acterizes all but one of the experiments deemed successful: the
successive trials are not independent of one another. This lack
of independence has unfortunate consequences for any attempt to
draw conclusions about ESP based on the outcomes of such experiments.
The concept of independence is technical and somewhat difficult to
explain simply, but. since it is critical to understanding why the remote
viewing experiments fail to make their case, we supply an Intuitive
explanation.
Assume that we are considering a remote viewing experiment in
which the subject participates in only two trials. In other words, we
deal with two randomly chosen target sites. For the first trial, the
target team goes to the first target site and remains there while the
subject produces his or her first description. Immediately after this
trial, the target team returns to the laboratory and takes the subject
to the actual target site so that he or she and the others can gain a
,,
,% . . . ~. . . ~, .
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198
yielded several deflections, so it
ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
is reasonable to assume that many more
than 12 deflections were obtained in the complete record. It is likely that
these unreported deflections were not preceded by any emotional re
sponses.
Almost certainly, more than 12 emotional responses must have appeared
in the total record. The point of conducting the sessions was to expose
the subjects to a variety of emotional stimuli; therefore, it is essential to
know the number of times that emotional responses occurred without the
corresponding occurrence of polygraph responses. Finally, to determine
correlation, it is essential to know the frequency of co-occurrence of the
absence of emotional responses and the absence of polygraph responses.
All this information is needed to determine whether the claimed
correlation exists. All the data must be used. From these data, one can
compare the proportion of times that an emotional response is followed
by a polygraph response with the proportion of times that the absence
of an emotional response is followed by a polygraph response. Only if
these two proportions are significantly different from one another can we
assume that the data provide evidence for a correlation between emotional
response and leukocyte activity. The fact that Backster was able to find
12 examples of the co-occurrence between emotional response and
polygraph deflection, even if these correspondences had come from
double-blind matching, provides us with absolutely no information about
whether a correlation exists.
The stronger claim would be, of course, not that a correlation exists,
but that a causal connection exists between the subject's emotional states
and the responses of the detached leukocytes. As Chapter 3 on evaluation
indicates, such a causal explanation requires much more than the
demonstration of correlation between two series. Because Backster did
not use double-blind procedures to determine emotional responses, and
because the procedures he did use are known to be just those that
facilitate the occurrence of a variety of subjective biases, he may well'
have obtained a correlation between his two series. However, his
procedures for finding such correlations are sufficiently flawed that we
do not know if in fact the suspected (and presumably biased) correlation
actually does exist in his data. The Backster experiment indicates that
the best intentions combined with scientific instrumentation and poly-
graphic records cannot, in themselves, guarantee data of scientific quality.
DISCUSSION 0F THE SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE
Both the parapsychologists cited in this report and the critics of
parapsychology believe that the best contemporary experiments in para-
psychology fall short of acceptable methodological standards. The critics
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PARANORMAL PHENOMENA
199
conclude that such data, based on methodologically flawed procedures,
cannot justify any conclusions about psi. The parapsychologists argue
that, while each experiment is individually flawed, when taken together
they justify the conclusion that psi exists.
Palmer's conclusion in this regard is unique. Although he agrees that
the data do not justify the conclusion that a paranormal phenomenon has
been demonstrated, he argues that the data, with all their drawbacks, do
justify the conclusion that an anomaly of some sort has been demonstrated.
It is this purported demonstration of an anomaly that, according to
Palmer, further justifies the claim that parapsychologists do have a subject
matter. The awkward aspect of Palmer's position is that, without an
adequate theory, there is no way to know that the anomaly "demon-
strated" in one experiment is the same anomaly "demonstrated" in
another; indeed, there is no limit to the possible causes of the anomaly
in a given experiment. Without an adequate theory, there is no reason
to assume that the various anomalies constitute a coherent or intelligibly
related class of phenomena.
The committee distinguishes among three types of criticism that can
be leveled at a given parapsychological finding. The first is what we might
refer to as the smoking gun. This type of criticism asserts or strongly
implies that the observed findings were due not to psi but to factor X.
Such a claim puts the burden of proof on the critic. To back up such a
claim, the critic must provide evidence that the results were in fact caused
by X. Many of the bitterly contested feuds between critics and proponents
have often been the result of the proponent's assuming, correctly or
incorrectly, that this type of criticism was being made.
The second type of criticism can be referred to as the plausible
alternative. In this case, the critic does not assert that the result was due
to factor X, but instead asserts that the result could have been due to
factor X. Such a stance also places a burden on the critic, but one not
so stringent as the smoking gun assertion. The critic now has to make a
plausible case for the possibility that factor X was sufficient to have
caused the result. For example, optional stopping of an experiment on
the part of a subject can bias the results, but the bias is a small one; it
would be a mistake to assert that an outcome was due to optional stopping
if the probability of the outcome is extremely low. Akers's critique,
which was previously discussed, is an example based on the plausible
alternative.
The third type of criticism is what we have called the dirty test tube.
In this case, the critic does not claim that the results have been produced
by some artifact, but instead points out that the results have been obtained
under conditions that fail to meet generally accepted standards. The gist
of this type of criticism is that test tubes should be clean when doing
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ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
careful and important scientific research. To the extent that the test tubes
were dirty, it is suggested that the experiment was not carried out
according to acceptable standards. Consequently, the results remain
suspect even though the critic cannot demonstrate that the dirt in the
test tubes was sufficient to have produced the outcome. Hyman's critique
of the Ganzfeld psi research and Alcock's paper on remote viewing and
random number generator research are examples of this type of criticism.
In the committee's view, it is in this latter sense, the dirty test tube
sense, that the best parapsychological experiments fall short. We do not
have a smoking gun, nor have we demonstrated a plausible alternative;
but we imagine that even the parapsychological community must be
concerned that their best experiments still fall far short of the methodo-
logical adequacy that they themselves profess.
Honorton and Hyman differ on whether to assign a flaw in randomization
to a particular series of experiments. With Honorton's assignment, the
studies with adequate randomization do not differ in significance of
outcome from those with inadequate randomization. With Hyman's
assignment, the experiments with inadequate randomization have signif-
icantly more successful outcomes than do those with adequate random-
ization. A simple disagreement on one experiment can thus make a huge
difference as to whether we conclude that this flaw contributed or did
not contribute to the observed outcomes. Several similar examples could
be cited to illustrate the extreme sensitivity of this data base to slight
changes in flaw assignments.
Even if Palmer is correct in asserting that in a particular case an
anomaly has been demonstrated, serious problems remain. In astronomy
and other sciences, an anomaly is a very precise and specifiable departure
from a well-defined theoretical expectation. Neptune was discovered, for
example, when Leverrier was able to specify not only that the orbit of
Uranus departed from that expected by Newtonian theory, but also
precisely in what way it departed from expectation. Nothing approaching
such a specifiable anomaly has been claimed for parapsychology. A vague
and unspecifiable departure from chance is a far cry from a well-described
and systematic departure from a precise, theoretical equation. Leverrier's
anomaly was consistent with only a very narrow range of possibilities.
The sort of anomaly claimed for parapsychology is currently consistent
with an almost infinite variety of possibilities, including artifacts of various
kinds.
THE PROBLEM OF QUALITATIVE EVIDENCE
The committee continually encountered the distinction between qual-
itative and quantitative evidence for the existence of paranormal phe
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nomena. Many proponents of the paranormal acknowledge such a differ-
ence in one way or another. Some realize that it is only quantitative
evidence that will convince the scientific community. Although they
themselves have relied on qualitative evidence for their own beliefs, they
refer us to the RNG experiments of Robert Jahn or the remote viewing
experiments at SRI as examples of supporting quantitative data.
Most proponents seem impatient with the request for scientific evidence.
They have been convinced through their own experiences or the vivid
testimonies of individuals whom they trust. Many argue that qualitative
evidence can be as good as quantitative; indeed, they claim that in some
circumstances it can be better.
The arguments for the superiority of qualitative evidence are based in
many cases on such factors as ecological validity, conducive atmosphere,
and holism. The ecological validity argument asserts that the artificial
conditions required for laboratory experiments are so different from the
natural settings in which paranormal phenomena typically occur that
findings from such controlled studies are irrelevant. By removing the
psychic from his or her natural domain or by arranging conditions to suit
the needs of scientific observation, it is claimed, the scientist destroys
the very phenomenon under question. The ecological validity argument
is closely related to the other arguments. Proponents who emphasize the
conducive atmosphere assert that the austere conditions of strict labo-
ratory procedure create an atmosphere that is numbing or inimical to
psychic functioning. Those who emphasize holism point out that the
experimental procedures necessarily dissect and focus on restricted
portions of a system. Such compartmentalization, it is claimed, makes it
impossible to study the sorts of paranormal phenomena that operate only
as a total system in a naturalistic context.
QUALITATIVE EVIDENCE AND SUBJECTIVE BIASES
What is meant by qualitative evidence? Roughly, it means any sort of
nonscientific evidence that proponents find personally convincing. Typ-
ically, it involves personally experiencing or witnessing the phenomenon.
Less compelling, but still effective, is the testimony of friends or trusted
acquaintances who have personally experienced it. Even individuals who
are intellectually aware of the pitfalls of personal observation and
testimony find it difficult, even impossible, to disregard the compelling
quality of such evidence in the formation of their own beliefs.
A major parapsychologist admitted to one committee member that the
scientific evidence did not justify concluding that psi exists. "As a trained
scientist," he said, "I know quite well that by scientific criteria there is
no evidence for the existence of psi. In fact, I have always argued with
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my parapsychological colleagues that they are making a serious mistake
in trying to get the scientific community to take their current evidence
seriously. Before they do this, they first have to be able to collect the
sort of repeatable and lawful data that constitute scientific evidence."
This same parapsychologist then explained why, despite the current lack
of evidence, he remained a parapsychologist. "When I was 16 I had some
personal experiences of a psychic nature that were so compelling that I
have no doubt that they were real. Yet, as a trained scientist, I know
that my personal experiences and subjective convictions cannot and
should not be the basis for asking others to believe me." This parapsy-
chologist is unusual in that he makes the distinction within himself
between beliefs that are subjectively compelling and beliefs that are
scientifically justifiable. More typical is the proponent who, as a result
of compelling personal experience, not only has no doubt about the reality
of underlying paranormal cause, but also has no patience with the refusal
of others to support that belief.
We see two problems regarding qualitative evidence. First, personal
observation and testimony are subject to a variety of strong biases of
which most of us are unaware. When such observations and testimony
emerge from circumstances that are emotional and personal, the biases
and distortions are greatly enhanced. Psychologists and others have found
that the circumstances under which such evidence is obtained are just
those that foster a variety of human biases and erroneous beliefs. Second,
beliefs formed under such circumstances tend to carry a high degree of
subjective certainty and often resist alteration by later, more reliable
disconfirming data. Such beliefs become self-sealing, in that when new
information comes along that would ordinarily contradict them, the
believers find ways to turn the apparent contradictions into additional
confirmation.
The committee asked Dale Griffin to describe many of the ways in
which cognitive and social psychologists have documented that human
subjective judgment can lead us astray. Griffin's paper emphasizes the
cognitive biases termed availability and representativeness, but he also
discusses motivational biases. Although most of these biases have been
created under laboratory conditions, they are nonetheless quite powerful,
and evidence has been mounting that, if anything, they are much more
powerful in natural settings. Griffin points out that one vivid, concrete
experience is usually sufficient to outweigh conclusions based on hundreds
or thousands of cases based on abstract summary statistics. These and
the other biases discussed by Griffin should make us wary of conclusions
based on qualitative evidence.
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EXAMPLES OF PROBLEMATIC BELIEFS
In this section we discuss some examples of beliefs about paranormal
phenomena that have been formed under conditions known to generate
cognitive illusions and strong delusional beliefs. We attempt to make
clear why we are skeptical of any evidence offered in support of the
paranormal that does not strictly fulfill scientific criteria. We believe it is
important to realize the power of such conditions to create strong but
false beliefs.
In 1974 a group of distinguished physicists at the University of London
observed renowned psychic Uri Geller apparently bend metallic objects
and cause part of a crystal, encapsulated in a container, to disappear.
Impressed with what they saw, in 1975 these scientists contributed an
article to Nature outlining their ideas about how to conduct successful
parapsychological research (reprinted in Hasted et al., 1976~. In their
discussion they note that successful results depend on the relation among
the participants and that phenomena are more likely to occur when all
participants are in a relaxed state, all sincerely want the psychic to
succeed, and "the experimental arrangement is aesthetically or imagi-
natively appealing to the person with apparent psychokinetic powers.,'
Hasted and his colleagues describe further desiderata. The psychic
should be treated as one of the experimental team, contributing to an
attitude of mutual trust and confidence that facilitates successful appear-
ance of the allegedly paranormal effects. The slightest hint of suspicion
on the part of the observers can stifle the occurrence of any phenomena.
Observers should avoid looking for any particular outcome that interferes
with the required relaxed state of mind and impedes paranormal powers.
To help avoid the inhibiting effects of concentrated attention, participants
should talk and think about matters irrelevant to the experiment at hand.
Acknowledging that these desiderata make it difficult to preclude
trickery, Hasted and his colleagues express confidence that they can both
create psi-conducive conditions and eliminate the possibility of being
tricked (Hasted et al., 1976:1941:
It should be possible to design experimental arrangements which are beyond any
reasonable possibility of trickery, and which magicians will generally acknowledge
to be so. In the first stages of our work we did in fact present Mr. Geller with
several such arrangements, but these proved aesthetically unappealing to him.
Although we may sympathize with the British physicists' desire to
create conditions conducive to the appearance of genuine psychic powers,
if such powers exist, we cannot fail to note the quandary that their efforts
produce. In their quest for psi-conducive conditions, they have created
guidelines that play into the hands of anyone intent on deceiving them.
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The very conditions that are specified as being conducive to the appearance
of paranormal phenomena are almost always precisely those that are
conducive to the successful performance of conjuring tricks. One of the
first rules the aspiring conjuror learns is never to announce in advance
the specific outcome that he or she is going to produce. In this way
onlookers will not know where and on what they should focus their
attention and consequently will be less apt to detect the method by which
the trick was accomplished. The authors' advice to avoid focusing on a
predetermined outcome greatly facilitates the conjuror's task.
The insistence that the arrangements meet with the psychic's approval
is by far the most devastating of these conditions. Geller will perform
only if the conditions are "aesthetically pleasing." This amounts to giving
the alleged psychic complete veto power over any situation in which he
or she feels that success is not ensured. This in turn means that the
psychic being tested, not the experimenters, is controlling the experiment.
Surely the British physicists ought to realize the irony of their admission
that all their experimental arrangements designed to preclude trickery
turned out to be aesthetically unacceptable to Uri Geller.
Another example of beliefs generated in circumstances that are known
to create cognitive illustions is macro-PK, which is practiced at spoon-
bending, or PK, parties. The 15 or more participants in a PK party, who
usually pay a fee to attend and bring their own silverware, are guided
through various rituals and encouraged to believe that, by cooperating
with the leader, they can achieve a mental state in which their spoons
and forks will apparently soften and bend through the agency of their
minds.
Since 1981, although thousands of participants have apparently bent
metal objects successfully, not one scientifically documented case of
paranormal metal bending has been presented to the scientific community.
Yet participants in the PK parties are convinced that they have both
witnessed and personally produced paranormal metal bending. Over and
over again we have been told by participants that they know that metal
became paranormally deformed in their presence. This situation gives
the distinct impression that proponents of macro-PK, having consistently
failed to produce scientific evidence, have forsaken the scientific method
and undertaken a campaign to convince themselves and others on the
basis of clearly nonscientific data based on personal experience and
testimony obtained under emotionally charged conditions.
Consider the conditions that leaders and participants agree facilitate
spoon bending. Efforts are made to exclude critics because, it is asserted,
skepticism and attempts to make objective observations can hinder or
prevent the phenomena from appearing. As Houck, the originator of the
PK party, describes it, the objective is to create in the participants a
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peak emotional experience (Houck, 19841. To this end, various exercises
involving relaxation, guided imagery, concentration, and chanting are
performed. The participants are encouraged to shout at the silverware
and to "disconnect" by deliberately avoiding looking at what their hands
are doing. They are encouraged to shout Bend! throughout the party.
"To help with the release of that initial concentration, people are
encouraged to jump up or scream that theirs is bending, so that others
can observe." Houck makes it clear that the objective is to create a state
of emotional chaos. 'iShouting at the silverware has also been added as
a means of helping to enhance the emotional level in a group. This
procedure adds to the intensity of the command to bend and helps create
pandemonium throughout the party."
A PK party obviously is not the ideal situation for obtaining reliable
observations. The conditions are just those which psychologists and
others have described as creating states of heightened suggestibility and
implanting compelling beliefs that may be unrelated to reality. It is beliefs
acquired in this fashion that seem to motivate persons who urge us to
take macro-PK seriously. Complete absence of any scientific evidence
does not discourage the proponents; they have acquired their beliefs
under circumstances that instill zeal and subjective certainty. Unfortu-
nately, it is just these circumstances that foster false beliefs.
DISCUSSION OF QUALITATIVE EVIDENCE
Our analysis of the evidence put before us indicates that even the most
solidly based arguments for the existence of paranormal phenomena fall
short of the currently accepted parapsychological standards. Even if the
best evidence had been collected according to acceptable scientific
standards, most proponents would have in fact remained convinced by
personal experiences and data that clearly fall far short of scientific
acceptability. We have looked at two examples to make clear why and
in what ways such failures to meet acceptable standards render the
corresponding arguments useless as evidence for the paranormal, even
though they have created compelling and strongly held beliefs in those
who have been exposed to them.
The examples illustrate how different ways of attempting to acquire
evidence for paranormal phenomena can depart from adequate standards.
These inadequacies become especially critical when we note that the
conditions under which the alleged paranormal phenomena are supposed
to occur are just those known to foster biases and false beliefs. The PK
parties, while creating powerful beliefs in paranormal metal bending,
clearly violate almost every principle for obtaining trustworthy data.
These parties offer no standardization, no objective records, and no
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controls against self-deception or the deliberate deception of others. All
participants, including the leader, are encouraged to achieve a peak
emotional state, and general chaos is encouraged.
The suggestions of a group of British physicists for testing alleged
psychics are aimed at somehow combining the desire to keep the psychic
from feeling inhibited with the desire to obtain evidence of acceptable
scientific quality. The observers' zeal for making the psychic feel trusted
produces conditions that make scientific observation impossible: observ-
ers are instructed to refrain from focusing attention on any expected
result, and the experimental arrangement must be aesthetically acceptable
to the psychic, a condition that in effect puts the psychic in control of
the experiment.
The search for psi-conducive conditions is understandable. Parapsy-
chological research, even at its best, has been continually frustrated by
the lack of robust, lawful, and repeatable outcomes, yet parapsychologists
have experienced phenomena or have encountered data that have con-
vinced them of the reality of the paranormal. When they try to put such
evidence before their critics, however, the phenomena have a habit of
disappearing. If one fervently believes that the phenomena are real, then
it becomes easy to imagine a variety of reasons why they are elusive and
hard to produce on demand.
When proponents encounter a new phenomenon or psychic, they are
strongly motivated to create conditions that will not drive the phenomenon
away. The special atmosphere of PK parties and the suggestions of the
British physicists are just two examples of attempts to generate psi-
conducive conditions that also seem to be deception-conducive and bias-
conducive.
CONCLUSIONS
In drawing conclusions from our review of evidence and other consid-
erations related to psychic phenomena, we note that the large body of
research completed to date does not present a clear picture. Overall, the
experimental designs are of insufficient quality to arbitrate between the
claims made for and against the existence of the phenomena. While the
best research is of higher quality than many critics assume, the bulk of
the work does not meet the standards necessary to contribute to the
knowledge base of science. Definitive conclusions must depend on
evidence derived from stronger research designs. The points below
summarize key arguments in this chapter.
1. Although proponents of ESP have made sweeping claims, not only
for its existence but also for its potential applications, an evaluation of
the best available evidence does not justify such optimism. The strongest
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claims have been made for remote viewing and the Ganzfeld experiments.
The scientific case for remote viewing is based on a relatively small
number of experiments, almost all of which have serious methodological
defects. Although the first experiments of this type were begun in 1972,
the existence of remote viewing still has not been established. Further-
more, although success rates varying from 30 to 60 percent have been
claimed for the Ganzfeld experiments, the evidence remains problematic
because all the experiments deviate in one or more respects from accepted
scientific procedures. In the committee's view, the best scientific evidence
does not justify the conclusion that ESP that is, gathering information
about objects or thoughts without the intervention of known sensory
mechanisms-exists.
2. Nor does scientific evidence offer support for the existence of
psychokinesis that is, the influence of thoughts upon objects without
the intervention of known physical processes. In the experiments using
random number generators, the reported size of effects is very small, a
hit rate of no more than 50.5 percent compared with the chance expectancy
of 50 percent. Although analysis indicates that overall significance for
the experiments, with their unusually large number of trials, is probably
not due to a statistical fluke, virtually all the studies depart from good
scientific practice in a variety of ways; furthermore, it is not clear that
the pattern of results is consistent across laboratories. In the committee's
view, any conclusions favoring the existence of an effect so small must
at least await the results of experiments conducted according to more
adequate protocols.
3. Should the Army be interested in evaluating further experiments,
the following procedures are recommended: first, the Army and outside
scientists should arrive at a common protocol; second, the research
should be conducted according to that protocol by both proponents and
skeptics, and third, attention should be Riven to the manipulability and
practical application of any effects found. Even if psi phenomena are
determined to exist in some sense, this does not guarantee that they will
have any practical utility, let alone military applications. For this to be
possible, the phenomena would have to obey causal laws and be
manipulable.
4. The committee is aware of the discrepancy between the lack of
scientific evidence and the strength of many individuals' beliefs in
r ~ ~ T _. ~ 1 ] . . ~ ~ _- ,
paranormal phenomena. lines Is a cause for concern. ray, my
~ .
Of the the world's most prominent scientists have concluded that such
phenomena exist and that they have been scientifically verified. Yet in
just about all these cases, subsequent information has revealed that their
convictions were misguided. We also are aware that many proponents
believe that the scientific method may not be the only, or the most
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ENHANCING HUMAN PERFORMANCE
appropriate, method for establishing the reality of paranormal phenomena.
Unfortunately, the alternative methods that have been used to demonstrate
the existence of the paranormal create just those conditions that psy-
chologists have found enhance human tendencies toward self-deception
and suggestibility. Concerns about making the experimental situation
comfortable for the alleged psychic or conducive to paranormal phenom-
ena frequently result in practices that also increase opportunities for
deception and error.
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
Two of the military officers who briefed us during our first meeting
urged the committee to give serious consideration to paranormal phe-
nomena and related parapsychological techniques. They described a
variety of such phenomena that they felt had military potential, either as
threats to security or as aids to defense. Site visits to leading laboratories
and a paper prepared for the committee also contributed to the bases for
the committee's work. Briefings were given to committee members by
Robert Jahn, Cleve Backster, Helmut Schmidt, members of the staff of
the Stanford Research Institute, and the U.S. Army Laboratory Command
in Adelphi, Maryland. The paper prepared by James Alcock provided
detailed reviews of the available evidence on random event generators
and remote viewing. In addition, the committee benefited from a thorough
review conducted for the Army Research Institute by John Palmer and
from its own review of recent articles in the Journal of Parapsychology
and other relevant periodicals and handbooks.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
paranormal phenomena
