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PR O¢EE
$E¢ OND
WORKSHOP
Pane} to Review the 2000 Census
Con~n~ittee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences
and with regard for appropriate balance.
The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no. 50-YABC-~-66010
between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Census Bureau. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations egresses in this publication are those of the author ts) and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the
project.
Additional copies of this report are available from Committee on National Statistics, 2101
Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20418; (202) 334-3096; Internet,
http: //www. nap . edu
Suggested Citation: National Research Council (2001) . Proceedings, Second Workshop. Pane] to
Review the 2000 Census. Committee on National Statistics. Washington, DC: National
Academy Press.
Printed in the United States of America
O2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
. .
11
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"I-''! 1 ~ :- ~1 IN 1'"'*~ A:) 1'~1 i\1 /\'' i\':')"''' ~ \~ I" ('
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished
scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and
technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the
Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on
scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the
responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and
recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National
Aca emy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the
services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining
to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of
Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own
initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of
the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate
the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge
and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the
Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of
Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies
and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice
chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
. . .
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PANEL TO REVIEW THE 2000 CENSUS
JANET L. NORWOOD (ChairJ, Chevy Chase, Maryland
ROBERT M. BELL, AT&T Labs-Research, Fiorham Park, New Jersey
NORMAN M. BRADBURN, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of
Pennsylvania
WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
ROBERT M. HAWSER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin
RODERICK ~.A. LITTLE,* School of Public Health, University of Michigan
INGRAM OLKIN, Department of Statistics an] School of Education, Stanford University
D. BRUCE PETRIE, Canadian Institute for Health Information, Ottawa, Ontario
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Program Officer
DANIEL L. CORK, Program Officer
AGNES GASKIN, Senior Project Assistant
MARISA GERSTEIN, Research Assistant
MICHEEE VER PLOEG, Program Officer
ANDREW A WHITE,** Senior Program Officer
MEYER HITTER, Consultant
*Serve] until March 2000
**Served as study director until March 2000
v
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2001-2002
JOHN E. Ro~PH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University
ROBERT M. BELL, AT~T Labs-Research, Florham Park, New Jersey
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of
Pennsylvania
ROBERT M. GROVES, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Michigan
HERMANN HABERMANN, Statistics Division, United Nations, New York, New York
JOEL L. HoRow~Tz, Department of Economics, University of Iowa
WILLIAM KA~ssEEK, Survey Research Unit, Department of Biostatistics, University of North
Carolina
ARLEEN LE~sow~Tz, School of Public Policy and Social Research, University of California at Los
Angeles
RODERICK l.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan
THOMAS A. Louis, RAND, Arlington, Virginia
DARYL PREG~soN, AT&T Labs-Research, Florham Park, New jersey
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of Michigan
ANDREW A. WHITE, Director
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PREFACE
The Panel to Review the 2000 Census was established in 1998 by the Committee on Na-
tional Statistics of the National Research Council at the request of the U.S. Census Bureau. The
panel has a broad charge to provide an independent assessment of the quality of the 2000 census
operations and results. It is charged in particular to review the statistical methods of the 2000
census, including the use of the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.) Program and clual-
systems estimation (DSE), along with other census procedures that may affect the completeness
and quality of the data.
As part of its work, the pane] held three open workshops on topics related to the A.C.E. and
possible adjustment of the census counts for population coverage errors. The pane] has prepared
proceedings of each workshop to be part of the public documentation of planning for the 2000
census.
The first workshop was hell] October 6, 1999. It considered issues of the A.C.E. design that
had not yet been completely worked out by the Census Bureau staff. Topics discussed included
methods and issues for determining post-strata for estimation, obtaining the final sample of block
clusters from a larger initial sample, and imputing values for missing responses on characteristics
needed to define post-strata.
The second workshop was held February 2-3, 2000. It covered the dual-systems estimation
process from beginning to end. The third workshop was held October 2, 2000. It laid out the
process the Census Bureau planned to follow in order to reach a decision by March 1 on whether
to adjust the census counts for purposes of congressional redistricting.
This volume provides the editec! transcript of the proceedings of the second workshop. ;See
National Research Council, 2001b and 2001c for proceedings of the first and third workshops.)
The substance of the participants' remarks has not been altered. Some text has been added tin
brackets] to spell out terms, clarify who is speaking, and make sentences complete. The only
material deleted consists of introductions of speakers. A list of invited participants and their
affiliations (at the time of the workshop) is provided at the end of the document.
Papers prepared by Census Bureau staff were distributed to participants before the meeting.
They are often mentioned in the discussion, ant! appropriate citations have been added in the
text to refer the reader to the relevant bibliographic entry in the references. All of the documents
are available on the Census Bureau's web site: http: //www. census . gov.
For explanations of terms and discussion of the design of the A.C.E. as it was implemented
in 2000, please consult the interim report of the panel, The 2000 Census: Interim Assessment
(National Research Council, 2001 a).
I want to thank the Census Bureau staff who prepared materials and participated in the work-
shop. Particular thanks are due to Howard Hogan, who did a superb job in presenting a complex
set of n~aterials to the panel members and invited participants.
. .
V11
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I also vent to thank the panel members and inked p~dcip~nts ~r tbe~ tbought~1 com-
ments and probing Lessons during the ~orksbop.
Pinball I Cant to thank the panel stab No prepared this proceedings. Tab include Con-
st~nce C~IO' Maria ~eiandIo' Agnes Casing and Daniel Cork.
Ianet L. No~ood' ^
Panel to ~~ the MOO Census
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TENT
Proceedings
Opening Remarks, First Day
Census 2000 Update
A.C.E. Overview
Discussion of Treatment of Movers
Estimation Domains (Post-Stratification) for A.C.E.
Discussion of Post-Stratification
Continued Discussion of Post-Stratification
Missing Data
General Discussion
Comments of David Freedman
Congressional Monitoring Board Report to Congress
Discussion of Monitoring Board Report
Comments of Alan ZasTavsky
Comments from the Floor
Opening Remarks, Second Day
Evaluation of the Census Vis-a-Vis Adjustment
Counts Versus Shares
Concluding Comments from Invited Guests
References
List of Invited Participants
1X
1
6
8
23
28
35
39
48
53
63
66
69
80
82
84
86
102
109
124
126
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PROCEEDINGS
