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PR O¢EE $E¢ OND WORKSHOP Pane} to Review the 2000 Census Con~n~ittee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no. 50-YABC-~-66010 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Census Bureau. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations egresses in this publication are those of the author ts) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Additional copies of this report are available from Committee on National Statistics, 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20418; (202) 334-3096; Internet, http: //www. nap . edu Suggested Citation: National Research Council (2001) . Proceedings, Second Workshop. Pane] to Review the 2000 Census. Committee on National Statistics. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Printed in the United States of America O2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. . . 11
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"I-''! 1 ~ :- ~1 IN 1'"'*~ A:) 1'~1 i\1 /\'' i\':')"''' ~ \~ I" (' National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Aca emy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. . . .
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PANEL TO REVIEW THE 2000 CENSUS JANET L. NORWOOD (ChairJ, Chevy Chase, Maryland ROBERT M. BELL, AT&T Labs-Research, Fiorham Park, New Jersey NORMAN M. BRADBURN, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University ROBERT M. HAWSER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin RODERICK ~.A. LITTLE,* School of Public Health, University of Michigan INGRAM OLKIN, Department of Statistics an] School of Education, Stanford University D. BRUCE PETRIE, Canadian Institute for Health Information, Ottawa, Ontario CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Program Officer DANIEL L. CORK, Program Officer AGNES GASKIN, Senior Project Assistant MARISA GERSTEIN, Research Assistant MICHEEE VER PLOEG, Program Officer ANDREW A WHITE,** Senior Program Officer MEYER HITTER, Consultant *Serve] until March 2000 **Served as study director until March 2000 v
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2001-2002 JOHN E. Ro~PH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University ROBERT M. BELL, AT~T Labs-Research, Florham Park, New Jersey LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania ROBERT M. GROVES, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Michigan HERMANN HABERMANN, Statistics Division, United Nations, New York, New York JOEL L. HoRow~Tz, Department of Economics, University of Iowa WILLIAM KA~ssEEK, Survey Research Unit, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina ARLEEN LE~sow~Tz, School of Public Policy and Social Research, University of California at Los Angeles RODERICK l.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan THOMAS A. Louis, RAND, Arlington, Virginia DARYL PREG~soN, AT&T Labs-Research, Florham Park, New jersey NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of Michigan ANDREW A. WHITE, Director
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PREFACE The Panel to Review the 2000 Census was established in 1998 by the Committee on Na- tional Statistics of the National Research Council at the request of the U.S. Census Bureau. The panel has a broad charge to provide an independent assessment of the quality of the 2000 census operations and results. It is charged in particular to review the statistical methods of the 2000 census, including the use of the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.) Program and clual- systems estimation (DSE), along with other census procedures that may affect the completeness and quality of the data. As part of its work, the pane] held three open workshops on topics related to the A.C.E. and possible adjustment of the census counts for population coverage errors. The pane] has prepared proceedings of each workshop to be part of the public documentation of planning for the 2000 census. The first workshop was hell] October 6, 1999. It considered issues of the A.C.E. design that had not yet been completely worked out by the Census Bureau staff. Topics discussed included methods and issues for determining post-strata for estimation, obtaining the final sample of block clusters from a larger initial sample, and imputing values for missing responses on characteristics needed to define post-strata. The second workshop was held February 2-3, 2000. It covered the dual-systems estimation process from beginning to end. The third workshop was held October 2, 2000. It laid out the process the Census Bureau planned to follow in order to reach a decision by March 1 on whether to adjust the census counts for purposes of congressional redistricting. This volume provides the editec! transcript of the proceedings of the second workshop. ;See National Research Council, 2001b and 2001c for proceedings of the first and third workshops.) The substance of the participants' remarks has not been altered. Some text has been added tin brackets] to spell out terms, clarify who is speaking, and make sentences complete. The only material deleted consists of introductions of speakers. A list of invited participants and their affiliations (at the time of the workshop) is provided at the end of the document. Papers prepared by Census Bureau staff were distributed to participants before the meeting. They are often mentioned in the discussion, ant! appropriate citations have been added in the text to refer the reader to the relevant bibliographic entry in the references. All of the documents are available on the Census Bureau's web site: http: //www. census . gov. For explanations of terms and discussion of the design of the A.C.E. as it was implemented in 2000, please consult the interim report of the panel, The 2000 Census: Interim Assessment (National Research Council, 2001 a). I want to thank the Census Bureau staff who prepared materials and participated in the work- shop. Particular thanks are due to Howard Hogan, who did a superb job in presenting a complex set of n~aterials to the panel members and invited participants. . . V11
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I also vent to thank the panel members and inked p~dcip~nts ~r tbe~ tbought~1 com- ments and probing Lessons during the ~orksbop. Pinball I Cant to thank the panel stab No prepared this proceedings. Tab include Con- st~nce C~IO' Maria ~eiandIo' Agnes Casing and Daniel Cork. Ianet L. No~ood' ^ Panel to ~~ the MOO Census
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TENT Proceedings Opening Remarks, First Day Census 2000 Update A.C.E. Overview Discussion of Treatment of Movers Estimation Domains (Post-Stratification) for A.C.E. Discussion of Post-Stratification Continued Discussion of Post-Stratification Missing Data General Discussion Comments of David Freedman Congressional Monitoring Board Report to Congress Discussion of Monitoring Board Report Comments of Alan ZasTavsky Comments from the Floor Opening Remarks, Second Day Evaluation of the Census Vis-a-Vis Adjustment Counts Versus Shares Concluding Comments from Invited Guests References List of Invited Participants 1X 1 6 8 23 28 35 39 48 53 63 66 69 80 82 84 86 102 109 124 126
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