THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

NATURAL DISASTERS AND ENERGY POLICY

A SUMMARY OF THE FORUM ON NATURAL DISASTERS AND ENERGY POLICY, JUNE 12, 2001, WASHINGTON, DC

A SUMMARY TO THE NATURAL DISASTERS ROUNDTABLE

BY

RUTHERFORD H. PLATT,

UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS, AND

SUSAN B. MOCKLER,

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL



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Natural Disasters and Energy Policy: A Summary of the Forum on Natural Disasters and Energy Policy, June 12, 2001, Washington, DC THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES NATURAL DISASTERS AND ENERGY POLICY A SUMMARY OF THE FORUM ON NATURAL DISASTERS AND ENERGY POLICY, JUNE 12, 2001, WASHINGTON, DC A SUMMARY TO THE NATURAL DISASTERS ROUNDTABLE BY RUTHERFORD H. PLATT, UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS, AND SUSAN B. MOCKLER, NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

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Natural Disasters and Energy Policy: A Summary of the Forum on Natural Disasters and Energy Policy, June 12, 2001, Washington, DC NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report is available on the internet from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418, (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); internet <http://www.nap.edu>. This report is funded in part by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Task order 56-DKNA-0-95111); Federal Emergency Management Agency (EMW-2001-SA-0051); Institute for Business and Home Safety, National Aeronautic and Space Administration (W-24245); Pacific Gas & Electric; and EPRI (EP501 0000002689). The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA, FEMA, IBHS, NASA, PG&E, EPRI, or any of their subagencies. Supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior, under assistance award No. 00HQAG0205. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Government. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No.CMS-9981962. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in the material are those of the author and do not reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Natural Disasters and Energy Policy: A Summary of the Forum on Natural Disasters and Energy Policy, June 12, 2001, Washington, DC THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisors to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Natural Disasters and Energy Policy: A Summary of the Forum on Natural Disasters and Energy Policy, June 12, 2001, Washington, DC FOREWORD The Natural Disasters Roundtable (NDR) seeks to facilitate and enhance communication and the exchange of ideas among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers concerned with urgent and important issues related to natural disasters. Roundtable meetings are held three times a year in Washington, DC. Each meeting is an open forum focused on a specific topic or issue selected by the NDR Steering Committee. The NDR Steering Committee is composed of 5 appointed members and sponsoring ex officio members. Appointed members are: Rutherford H. Platt, Chair, University of Massachusetts, Amherst; James P. Bruce, Global Change Strategies International, Inc., Ottawa, Canada; Wilfred D. Iwan, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena; Stephen P. Leatherman, International Hurricane Center, Florida International University, Miami; and Mary Fran Myers, Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, University of Colorado at Boulder. Ex officio members are: Frank Goodman, EPRI; Lloyd S. Cluff, Pacific Gas & Electric; Miriam Heller, NSF; Robert M. Hirsch, USGS; Margaret Lawless, FEMA; John LaBrecque, NASA; James Russell, Institute for Business and Home Safety, and Helen M. Wood, NOAA. For more information on the Roundtable visit our website: http://national-academies.org/naturaldisasters or contact us at the address below. Natural Disasters Roundtable The National Academies 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Phone: 202-334-1964 Fax: 202-334-1961.

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Natural Disasters and Energy Policy: A Summary of the Forum on Natural Disasters and Energy Policy, June 12, 2001, Washington, DC This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Malcolm Watts, Kennett Square, Pennsylvania William Fulkerson, University of Tennessee Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William L. Fisher, University of Texas, Austin . Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.