A REVIEW OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY

Committee to Review the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study

Ocean Studies Board

Water Science and Technology Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study A REVIEW OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY Committee to Review the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study Ocean Studies Board Water Science and Technology Board Division on Earth and Life Studies National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report and the committee were supported by a grant from the United States Army Corps of Engineers and the Florida Department of Community Affairs. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08346-X Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 202-334-2714 http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY SCOTT W. NIXON, Chair, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett GEORGE H. DALRYMPLE, Everglades Research Group, Inc., Homestead, Florida ROBERT E. DEYLE, Florida State University, Tallahassee WAYNE C. HUBER, Oregon State University, Corvallis MARK S. PETERSON, University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs STEPHEN POLASKY, University of Minnesota, St. Paul NORBERT P. PSUTY, Rutgers University, Cook Campus, New Brunswick, New Jersey MALCOLM D. RIVKIN, University of Maryland, College Park DANIEL P. SHEER, HydroLogics, Inc., Columbia, Maryland Staff JOANNE C. BINTZ, Study Director, Ocean Studies Board NANCY A. CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant, Ocean Studies Board The work of this committee was overseen by the Ocean Studies Board and the Water Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council.

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study OCEAN STUDIES BOARD NANCY RABALAIS, Chair, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Chauvin ARTHUR BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMES COLEMAN, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge LARRY CROWDER, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina G. BRENT DALRYMPLE, Oregon State University, Corvalis RICHARD B. DERISO, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California EARL DOYLE, Shell Oil (Retired), Sugar Land, Texas ROBERT DUCE, Texas A&M University, College Station WAYNE R. GEYER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts D. JAY GRIMES, University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs MIRIAM KASTNER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California CINDY LEE, State University of New York at Stony Brook RALPH S. LEWIS, Connecticut Geological Survey, Hartford BONNIE MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey JULIAN P. MCcREARY, JR., University of Hawaii, Honolulu JACQUELINE MICHEL, Research Planning, Inc., Columbus, South Carolina RAM MOHAN, Gahagan & Bryant Associates, Inc., Baltimore, Maryland SCOTT NIXON, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett JON SUTINEN, University of Rhode Island, Kingston NANCY TARGETT, University of Delaware, Lewes PAUL TOBIN, Xtria, Chantilly, Virginia Staff MORGAN GOPNIK, Director SUSAN ROBERTS, Senior Program Officer DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer JENNIFER MERRILL, Program Officer TERRY SCHAEFER, Program Officer ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer JOHN DANDELSKI, Research Associate SHIREL SMITH, Administrative Associate JODI BACHIM, Senior Project Assistant NANCY CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant DENISE GREENE, Senior Project Assistant DARLA KOENIG, Senior Project Assistant JULIE PULLEY, Project Assistant ALISON SCHRUM, Project Assistant

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD RICHARD G. LUTHY, Chair, Stanford University, Stanford, California JOAN B. ROSE, Vice-Chair, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING, Washington State University, Pullman GREGORY B. BAECHER, University of Maryland, College Park KENNETH R. BRADBURY, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison JAMES CROOK, CH2MHill, Boston, Massachusetts EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis PETER GLEICK, Pacific Institute, Oakland, California STEVEN P. GLOSS, University of Wyoming, Laramie JOHN LETEY, JR., University of California, Riverside DIANE M. MCKNIGHT, University of Colorado, Boulder CHRISTINE L. MOE, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia RUTHERFORD H. PLATT, University of Massachusetts, Amherst JERALD L. SCHNOOR, University of Iowa, Iowa City LEONARD SHABMAN, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg R. RHODES TRUSSELL, Montgomery Watson, Pasadena, California Staff STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director LAURA J. EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Senior Staff Officer WILLIAM S. LOGAN, Senior Staff Officer MARK C. GIBSON, Staff Officer M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate PATRICIA JONES KERSHAW, Study/Research Associate ELLEN A. DE GUZMAN, Research Associate ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant ANIKE L. JOHNSON, Project Assistant JON Q. SANDERS, Project Assistant

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study Acknowledgments This report was greatly enhanced by the committee’s interaction with the contractors from URS Corporation, Inc., including Ricardo N. Calvo, Debra L. Childs, Ronald Giovannelli, Robert C. Hudson, Jr., Stephen R. Lienhart, and collaborator Sylvia Vargas of Wallace Roberts & Todd. The committee would also like to acknowledge the efforts of those who gave presentations at the January 2002 National Research Council (NRC) meeting: James Harvey of the Florida Fishing Guides Association and Bill Kruczynski of the Environmental Protection Agency. These talks helped set the stage for fruitful discussions in the closed sessions that followed. We would like to thank the sponsors of this study and their representatives, Deborah Peterson from the Army Corps of Engineers’ Bureau of Local Planning, and Ann Lazar from the State of Florida’s Department of Community Affairs who also provided valuable input and information. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Neil M. Fennessey, University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth Anne E. Giblin, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study David R. Godschalk, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Louis Gross, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Lance H. Gunderson, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia Walter Milon, University of Central Florida, Orlando John C. Ogden, Florida Institute of Oceanography, St. Petersburg Christopher Rooney, Carmody and Torrence LLP, New Haven, Connecticut Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Robert Frosch of Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, who served as Monitor and by Dr. Donald Boesch, University of Maryland, Cambridge, MD, who served as Coordinator. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   5     Background of the Study,   5     Scope and Approach,   6     Organization of this Review,   7 2   OVERARCHING COMMENTS AND CONCERNS   8     Utility,   8     Calibration Concerns,   9     Incomplete Knowledge Base,   10     Model Uncertainty,   10     Endpoints Not Considered,   11     Draft CCAM Conclusions,   11     Documentation,   12 3   SCENARIO GENERATOR   14     Presenting a Context,   14     Describing the Florida Keys as the Basis for Scenarios,   15     Visitor-Dependent Land Use/Economy,   15     The Pulse of Visitor Demand and Traffic,   15     Government Presence in Recreational Attractions and Economy,   16     Scenario Descriptions,   16     Graphic User Interface,   17

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study 4   SOCIOECONOMIC MODULE   20     Major Concerns,   20     Use of 1990 United States Census Figures,   20     Use of Independent Population Projections,   21     Use of Constant Coefficients,   21     The Affordable Housing Index,   22     The Competitive Commerce Index,   23     Missing Endpoints,   23     Public Involvement and Information Plan,   24     Tourism,   24     Lack of Adequate Documentation,   25 5   FISCAL MODULE   26     Major Concerns,   26     Use of 1990 Census Data,   26     Demography,   27     Stormwater/Wastewater Improvements,   27     Land Acquisition and Conversion,   27     Revenue,   27     Editorial Comments,   27     Adjustment of Fiscal Module,   28 6   HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE MODULE   29     Traffic on U.S. Route 1,   29     Land-Use Trip Generation Rates,   29     Trips Generated Outside the Florida Keys,   30     Trip Lengths,   30     Hurricane Evacuation,   31 7   INTEGRATED WATER MODULE   33     Major Concerns,   34     Water Quality,   34     Loadings,   35     Coefficients,   35     Minor Points,   36     Conclusions,   36 8   MARINE MODULE   37     Major Concerns,   38     Diffusion Model,   39

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A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study 9   TERRESTRIAL MODULE   41     Major Concerns,   43     Limitations and Assumptions,   43     Status of Vacant Land,   43     Sea Level Rise,   44     Fiscal Consequences of Scenarios as Outputs,   44     Decay Coefficients for Habitat Degradation,   45     Habitat Degradation Index and Human Population,   45     Habitat Requirements of Single Species,   46     Florida Key Deer,   46     Species-Area Habitat and Thresholds,   46 10   CONCLUSIONS   47     Summary,   49     REFERENCES CITED   51     ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTS CONSIDERED BY THE COMMITTEE   53     APPENDICES         A Committee Member Biographies   57     B Interim Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study   61     C Glossary of Terms and Acronym List   105     D Detailed Comments and Questions   114

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