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AIR POLLUTION, THE AUTOMOBILE, AND PUBLIC HEALTH Ann Y. Watson, Sc.D. Richard R. Bates, M.D. Donald Kennedy, Ph.D. Editors Sponsored by THE HEALTH EFFECTS INSTITUTE Cambridge, Massachusetts NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1988

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW. Washington, DC 20418 Air Pollution, the Automobile, and Public Health was sponsored by the Health Effects Institute (HEI), Cambridge, Massachusetts. HEI, established in 1980, is an independent nonprofit corporation structured to define, select, support, and review research that is aimed at investigating the possible health effects of motor vehicle emissions. HEI's annual operating budget is contributed equally by the U.S. Enviropmental Protection Agency and domestic and foreign manufacturers of motor vehicles. None of these contributors has any control over the conduct or conclusions of HEI studies. HEI's funds are controlled, within the limits of its charter, solely by its Board of Directors. The board operates independently, and is responsible for all HEI activities, including a scientific mission carried out by two autonomous committees, the Health Research Committee and the Health Review Committee. The board and the committees are supported in carrying out their day-to-day operations by HEI's executive director and a scientific and administrative staff. HEI makes no recommendations on regulatory and social policy, but seeks rather to gain acceptance by all parties of the data that may be necessary for future regulations. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Air pollution, the automobile, and public health. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Automobiles-Motors Exhaust gas Toxicology- United States. 2. Automobiles Motors Exhaust gas- Physiological effect United States. 3. Automobiles- Motors Exhaust gas Environmental aspects United States. I. Watson, Ann Y. II. Bates, Richard R. III. Kennedy, Donald, 1931- . RA577.A9A37 1988 363.7'392 88-9978 ISBN 0-309-03726-3 Copyright @) 1988 by the Health Effects Institute Printed in the United States of America

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The Health Effects Institute Boars! of Directors Archibald Cox (Chairman) Carl M. Loeb University Professor Emeritus, Harvard Law School; Chairman, Common Cause William 0. Baker Chairman Emeritus, Bell Laboratories; Chairman of the Board, Rockefeller University Donald Kennedy President, Stanford University Charles W. Powers Partner, Resources for Responsible Management; f.ounding Executive Director, HEI Health Research Committee Walter A. Rosenblith (Chairman) Institute Professor Emeritus and former Provost, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joseph D. Brain Cecil K. and Philip Drinker Professor of En- vironmental Physiology, Harvard University School of Public Health Curtis C. Harris Chief, Laboratory of Human Carcinogenesis, National Cancer Institute Barbara S. Hulka Chairperson, Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina Roger 0. McClellan President, Lovelace Inhalation Toxicology Research Institute Robert F. Sawyer Professor, Department of Mechanical Engi- neering, University of California at Berkeley John W. Tukey Senior Research Statistician and Donner Profes- sor of Science Emeritus, Princeton University Mark.J. Utell Professor of Medicine and Toxicology, Uni- versity of Rochester School of Medicine Gerald N. Wogan Underwood-Prescott Professor of Toxicology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Werner Stoeber (Special Consultant to the Committee) Director, Fraunhofer Institute of Toxicology and Aerosol Research Health Review Committee Robert I. Levy (Chairman) President, Sandoz Research Institute . . . Bernard Goldstein Professor and Chairman, Department of Envi- ronmental and.Community Medicine, Univer- sity of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Robert Wood Johnson Medical Center

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1V Gareth M. Green Professor and Chairman, Department of Envi- ronmental Science, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health Millicent W.P. Higgins Associate Director for Epidemiology and Biometry, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Paul Meier Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Chicago Sheldon D. Murphy Professor and Chairman, Department of Envi- ronmental Health, University of Washington The Health Effects Institute Herbert Rosenkrantz Professor and Chairman, Department of Environmental Health Sciences and Professor of Biochemistry, Pediatrics and Radiology, Case Western Reserve University Arthur C. Upton Professor and Chairman, Institute of Environ- mental Medicine, New York University James Grizzle (Special Consultant to the Committee) Professor, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina Officers and Staff Vincent T. Covello Executive Director and Treasurer Thomas P. Crumbly Former Executive Director Richard M. Cooper Corporate Secretary Rashid Shaikh Director for Scientific Review and Evaluation Jane Warren Director of Research Judith Zalon Director of Administration Debra N. Johnson Controller Kathleen Nauss Senior Staff Scientist Patrick Kinney Staff Scientist Maria Costantini-Parent Staff Scientist Alison Dorries Staff Scientist Ann Y. Watson Consulting Staff Scientist L. Virgi Hepner Publications Manager Mary-Ellen Patten Administrative Assistant Gail Allosso Assistant to the Director of Administration Hannah Protzman Secretary Janet Fader Secretary Kathy Graziano Accounting Assistant

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Foreworc! WILLIAM D. RUCKELSHAUS The job of protecting Americans from involuntarily imposed environmental risks forms a fundamental challenge for the rest of this century. The public simultaneously fears the health effects of potentially toxic chemicals, while being justly skeptical about our ability to understand and differ- entiate the true risks of these chemicals. As a society, we have spent billions to control pollution, but we have sometimes done so in a reactive way, responding to the pres- sures generated by the latest bit of evi- dence. The result of all this is that our progress has been impressive, but uneven. We have tight controls on risks that may be very small, but remain nearly in the dark about other risks that may constitute much larger public health threats. I am excited about this volume because it represents, in several ways, how I believe our society should respond to the challenge of tailoring our investments to meet the real environmental threats that remain. Fundamentally, the Health Effects Institute has enlisted some of our best environmen- tal scientists to think hard about how we can quantify the risks as well as narrow the uncertainty about risk in relation to the automobile industry, an industry that is at the heart of our national economy. In so doing, the Institute recognizes that a critical part of our ability to deal credibly with the public about risk resides in improving the scientific base underlying risk assessment. Perhaps as important, the book is not just a set of research recommendations. Its au- thors recommend a strategic concept within which to view mobile source re- search. In so doing, they provide a valuable service to decision makers who are con . , . v scantly faced with deciding how to ratio- nally invest scarce research dollars. The task of deciding how much to invest in science relevant to next year's standard, and how much to buttress our overall scientific base is a daunting one. This book gives concrete and expert guidance about how to make that choice. My excitement about the science must always be tempered by the knowledge that I am not a scientist myself. I do have considerable experience, however, in un- derstanding how important the institu- tional context is to believable decisions. And, on that score, I am delighted that the source of this book is the Health Effects Institute. For several years now, the Health Effects Institute has demonstrated that it is possible to combine public and private re- sources to do credible, objective science that will be accepted by parties that have often fought tooth and nail about environ- mental policy. We must have more of these enterprises if we are to fashion environ- mental policy that protects the public health, while not tearing apart the societal fabric we need if we are to restore our economic competitiveness in world mar- kets. That this book was done under the auspices of the Health Effects Institute gives me confidence not only in the wisdom of the work recommended, but in our ability to marshal! our society's resources to deal effectively with its environmental prob- lems. The combination of scientific and insti- tutional integrity represented by this book is unusual. It should be a model for future endeavors to help quantify environmental risk as a basis for good decision making.

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Contents Foreword / v William D. Ruckelshaus Part I: Overview The Social Context of Automotive Emissions Research / 3 Donald Kennedy and Thomas P. Grumbly Project History and Organization / 11 Ann Y. Watson Motor Vehicle Emissions: A Strategy for Quantifying Risk / 17 Richard R. Bates and Ann Y. Watson Part II: Exposure Analysis Automotive Emissions / 39 John H. Johnson Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion of Air Pollutants Associated with Vehicular Emissions / 77 Perry]. Samson Atmospheric Transformations of Automotive Emissions / 99 Roger Atkinson Ambient Levels of Anthropogenic Emissions and Their Atmospheric Transformation Products / 133 T. E. Graede! Mathematical Modeling of the Effect of Emission Sources on Atmospheric Pollutant Concentrations / 161 Armistead G. Russell Assessment of Human Exposure to Air Pollution: Methods, Measurements, and Models / 207 Ken Sexton and P. Barry Ryan Biological Disposition of Airborne Particles: Basic Principles and Application to Vehicular Emissions / 239 Richard B. Schlesinger Biological Disposition of Vehicular Airborne Emissions: Particle-Associated Organic Constituents / 299 fames D. Sun, fames A. Bond, and Alan R. Dah! . . V11

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. ~ . V111 Contents Transport and Uptake of Inhaled Gases / 323 James S. Ultman Dosimetry Modeling of Inhaled Toxic Reactive Gases / 367 ' John H. Overton and Frederick J. Miller Part III: Biological Effects Epidemiologic Studies of Effects of Oxidant Exposure on Human Populations / 389 Eddy A. Bresnitz and Kathleen M. Rest Biochemical and Cellular Interrelationships in the Development of Ozone-Induced Pulmonary Fibrosis / 415 Jerold A. Last Relation of Pulmonary Emphysema and Small Airways Disease to Vehicular Emissions / 441 Joanne L. Wright Asthma and Automotive Emissions / 465 Philip A. Bromberg Effects of Automotive Emissions on Susceptibility to Respiratory Infections / 499 James E. Pennington Assessment of Carcinogenicity: Generic Issues and Their Application to Diesel Exhaust / 519 David G. Kaufman Potential Carcinogenic Effects of Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Nitroaromatics in Mobile Source Emissions / 555 Stephen S. Hecht Health Effects of Aldebydes and Alcohols in Mobile Source Emissions / 579 Lawrence J. Marnett Evaluation of Automotive Emissions as Risk Factors for the Development of Atherosclerosis and Coronary Heart Disease / 605 Thomas B. CZarkson Identifying Neurobehavioral Effects of Automotive Emissions and Fuel Components / 631 Ronald W. Wood Index / 659

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AIR POLLUTION, THE AUTOMOBILE, AND PUBLIC HEALTH

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