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The Notional Chollenge in Computer Science ond Tech nology National Research Council Computer Science and Technology Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1988

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. ~ _ Support for this project was provided by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (grant no. N00014-87-G-0082), the National Science Foundation (grant no. CCR-8619362), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. DCR- 8619362), the Department of Energy (grant no. DE-FG-05-87ER25029), and the Office of Naval Research (grant no. N00014-87-G-0110~. Additional funding wan received from IBM, Hewlett Packard, Cray, and Digital Equipment Corporation. Cover: aTwo Men on Edge" by Harold Cohen (19883. Photograph by Becky Cohen (1988~. Painting from a drawing generated by the artist's artificial intelligence computer program, AARON. 90~ X 118~. Collection of Joseph F. Traub and Pamela McCorduck. Available from Computer Science and Technology Board 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD JOSEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University, Chairman STEVE CHEN, Supercomputer System, Inc. MICHAEL L. DERTOUZOS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology EDWARD A. FEIGENBAUM, Stanford University SAMUEL H. FULLER, Digital Equipment Corporation RONALD L. GRAHAM, AT&T Bell Laboratories ROBERT E. KAHN, Corporation for National Research Initiatives LEONARD KLEINROCK, University of California, Los Angeles DAVID J. KUCK, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign JOSHUA LEDERBERG, The Rockefeller University ROBERT W. LUCKY, AT&T Bell Laboratories ROBERT M. METCALFE, 3Com Corporation RA] REDDY, Carnegie-Mellon University MARY SHAW, Carnegie-Mellon University WILLIAM J. SPENCER, Xerox Corporation ANDRIES VAN DAM, Brown University SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM Corporation IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Corporation MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Staff Director MEG KNEMEYER, Staff Associate DONNA F. ALLEN, Administrative Secretary · - ~ 111

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM, T.~. Watson Research Center MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation (retired) PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University J. ROSS MACDONALD, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey PERRY L. MCCARTY, Stanford University JACK E. OLIVER, Corned University JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory WILLIAM D. PHILLIPS, MaDinckro~t, Inc. DENIS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation DAVID M. RAUP, University of Chicago RICHARD 3. REED, University of Washington ROBERT E. STEVERS, University of Colorado LARRY L. SMARR, National Center for Supercomputing Applications EDWARD C. STONE, JR., California Institute of Technology KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University GEORGE W. WETHERILL, Carnegie Institution of Washington IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Data Systems Division RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director LAWRENCE E. MCCRAY, Associate Executive Director 1V

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Preface The Computer Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council was established in m-1986 to identify and analyze issues associated with developing, producing, and using computers. This report is the first to be issued by the board itself: it summa- rizes the initial deliberations of the board and serves as a platform from which the board can now begin to launch projects with a nar- rower focus in such areas as computer networking, high-performance computing, computer security, software, education, and the compet- itiveness of the U.S. computer sector. The report in hand combines a description of the most promising technological thrusts in the field of computer science and technology with a statement of concern about the health of the field and a call for greater and more effective unplementation of computer network- ing. A major investment in infrastructure is needed to enhance the nation's productivity and competitiveness across all fields. The re- port's description of computer science and engineering highlights the significance of technological innovations made possible by computer science in the recent past and identifies promising future directions and potential obstacles. The report is aimed at people in government, industry, and academia who are concerned about the future of computing technol- ogy as a critical area of national strength, particularly at a time when America's position in other areas is in apparent decline. The report v

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is addressed particularly to members of the policymaking commu- nity, as they consider decisions that will influence the growth of the field of computer science and technology and future applications of computers and communications. The report owes its existence to the devoted persistence of board member Michael L. Dertouzos, who first gave the report shape and then, on the basis of group discussions and raw material from the other members of the board, shepherded it through the numerous drafts and additional discussions that preceded its final form. Joseph F. Daub Chairman, Computer Science and Technology Board V1

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Contents PART I THE CHALLENGE 1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 2 THE PROMISE OF TECHNOLOGY Machines, Systems, and Software, 10 Artificial Intelligence, 12 Theoretical Computer Science, 13 Conclusion, 13 3 THE PROMISE OF INFRASTRUCTURE Information Networks, 14 Uses of Information Networks on a National Scale, 17 4 A UNIQUE INNOVATION ENGINE How and Why the Engine Has Worked Well, 22 The Research Infrastructure, 24 Why the Engine May Not Run Smoothly in the future, 26 5 RECOMMENDATIONS Improve and Expand Information Networking, 32 Support Fundamental Advances in Computer Science and Technology, 33 ·e V11 3 7 14 22 31

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PART II THE SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND TECHNOLOGIES 6 MACHINES, SYSTEMS, AND SOFTWARE Multiprocessor Systems, 41 Distributed Systems, 43 Software and Programming, 46 7 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Sensory Computing, 51 Expert Systems, 53 Deeper Cognitive Systems, 56 Robotics, 57 8 THEORETICAL COMPUTER SCIENCE Computational Complexity, 61 Algorithms and Their Analysis, 62 Semantics and Languages, 62 Cryptology, 63 REFERENCES ·e— V111 41 51 60 64