Appendix A
Workshop Agenda and List of Participants



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Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems Appendix A Workshop Agenda and List of Participants

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Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems This page in the original is blank.

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Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) Workshop on Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction for Hydrologic Systems Damon Room National Center for Atmospheric Research 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, Colorado 80305   Thursday September 21, 2000 8:30 a.m. Breakfast available in the meeting room 9:15 a.m. Introduction and strategy for workshop Dara Entekhabi, MIT 9:30 a.m. Research and operations requirements in federal agencies Panel of agency representatives 9:45 a.m. Predictability of regional hydrologic systems associated with terrestrial coupling Randy Koster, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 10:10 a.m. Observation-based predictability measures Upmanu Lall, Utah State University 10:35 a.m. Break 11:00 a.m. Hydrologic initialization and forecast in Numerical Weather Prediction Dag Lohmann, NCEP 11:25 a.m. Operational seasonal prediction of hydroclimate over the US Huug van den Dool, NCEP

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Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems 11:50 a.m. Predictions, Predictability and Decision Making Roger Pielke, Jr. 12:15 p.m. Lunch at NCAR Cafeteria 1:15 p.m. First panel discussion of science questions Chair: Marc Parlange, Johns Hopkins University 1. Are there predictable aspects of terrestrial hydrology than can enhance atmospheric weather and climate predictability? 2. What are the stability and feedback characteristics of two-way coupled subsurface, surface, and atmospheric hydrologic systems? How do they impact predictability? 1:55 p.m. Measures of predictability and effects of scale on limits-to-prediction Vijay Gupta, University of Colorado 2:20 p.m. Characterizing and managing uncertainty propagation in models Roger Ghanem, Johns Hopkins University 2:45 p.m. Defining measures for predictability and limit-of-prediction in hydrology Adam Schlosser, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 3:10 p.m. Break 3:35 p.m. Ensembles and predictability in climate and hydrologic systems Joe Tribbia, NCAR

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Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems 4:00 p.m. Second panel discussion of science questions Chair: Christa Peters-Lidard, Georgia Institute of Technology 3. What are the conceptual and model frameworks required to define limits-to-prediction in hydrologic systems? 4. What are the data and records requirements to estimate the inherent limits-to-prediction directly from observations? 4:40 p.m. Adjourn   Friday September 22, 2000 8:30 a.m. Breakfast available in the meeting room 9:30 a.m. Emerging opportunities in predicting flood and flash-flood events Baxter Vieux, University of Oklahoma 9:55 a.m. Current status and opportunities in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast (QPE and QPF) Witek Krajewski, University of Iowa 10:20 a.m. Extreme precipitation: Characterization of multiscale variability and predictability Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, University of Minnesota 10:45 a.m. Break 11:05 a.m. Predictability and limit-of-prediction in the global water cycle Kevin Trenberth, NCAR

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Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems 11:30 a.m. Third panel discussion of science questions Chair: Roni Avissar, Rutgers University 5. What are the opportunities in extending the lead-time and accuracy of hydrologic predictions based on predictable weather and climate patterns so that they meet the requirements of water resource and other applications? 6. What are the robustness and predictability criteria for models used in impact studies (e.g., hydrologic impacts of land use and global change)? 12:10 p.m. Lunch at NCAR Cafeteria 1:15 p.m. Evolution of regional hydrologic and climate systems as an initial value problem Roger Pielke, Sr., Colorado State University 1:40 p.m. Breakout groups to develop science plan and priorities for three sets of science questions; Collect and organize contributed bullet points 2:50 p.m. Reconvene as group for general briefing and closing discussions 3:15 p.m. Agency implementation of research and applications: Recommendations Panel of agency representatives [NOAA (NWS, NCEP); NASA; USGS; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers] 3:30 p.m. Adjourn 4:00 - 6:30 p.m. NRC Committee on Hydrologic Science meets to review workshop