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Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems (2002)

Chapter: Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
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Appendix A
Workshop Agenda and List of Participants

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×

Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) Workshop on Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction for Hydrologic Systems

Damon Room

National Center for Atmospheric Research

1850 Table Mesa Drive

Boulder, Colorado 80305

 

Thursday September 21, 2000

8:30 a.m.

Breakfast available in the meeting room

9:15 a.m.

Introduction and strategy for workshop

Dara Entekhabi, MIT

9:30 a.m.

Research and operations requirements in federal agencies

Panel of agency representatives

9:45 a.m.

Predictability of regional hydrologic systems associated with terrestrial coupling

Randy Koster, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

10:10 a.m.

Observation-based predictability measures

Upmanu Lall, Utah State University

10:35 a.m.

Break

11:00 a.m.

Hydrologic initialization and forecast in Numerical Weather Prediction

Dag Lohmann, NCEP

11:25 a.m.

Operational seasonal prediction of hydroclimate over the US

Huug van den Dool, NCEP

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×

11:50 a.m.

Predictions, Predictability and Decision Making

Roger Pielke, Jr.

12:15 p.m.

Lunch at NCAR Cafeteria

1:15 p.m.

First panel discussion of science questions

Chair: Marc Parlange, Johns Hopkins University

1. Are there predictable aspects of terrestrial hydrology than can enhance atmospheric weather and climate predictability?

2. What are the stability and feedback characteristics of two-way coupled subsurface, surface, and atmospheric hydrologic systems? How do they impact predictability?

1:55 p.m.

Measures of predictability and effects of scale on limits-to-prediction

Vijay Gupta, University of Colorado

2:20 p.m.

Characterizing and managing uncertainty propagation in models

Roger Ghanem, Johns Hopkins University

2:45 p.m.

Defining measures for predictability and limit-of-prediction in hydrology

Adam Schlosser, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

3:10 p.m.

Break

3:35 p.m.

Ensembles and predictability in climate and hydrologic systems

Joe Tribbia, NCAR

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×

4:00 p.m.

Second panel discussion of science questions Chair: Christa Peters-Lidard, Georgia Institute of Technology

3. What are the conceptual and model frameworks required to define limits-to-prediction in hydrologic systems?

4. What are the data and records requirements to estimate the inherent limits-to-prediction directly from observations?

4:40 p.m.

Adjourn

 

Friday September 22, 2000

8:30 a.m.

Breakfast available in the meeting room

9:30 a.m.

Emerging opportunities in predicting flood and flash-flood events

Baxter Vieux, University of Oklahoma

9:55 a.m.

Current status and opportunities in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast (QPE and QPF)

Witek Krajewski, University of Iowa

10:20 a.m.

Extreme precipitation: Characterization of multiscale variability and predictability

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, University of Minnesota

10:45 a.m.

Break

11:05 a.m.

Predictability and limit-of-prediction in the global water cycle

Kevin Trenberth, NCAR

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×

11:30 a.m.

Third panel discussion of science questions

Chair: Roni Avissar, Rutgers University

5. What are the opportunities in extending the lead-time and accuracy of hydrologic predictions based on predictable weather and climate patterns so that they meet the requirements of water resource and other applications?

6. What are the robustness and predictability criteria for models used in impact studies (e.g., hydrologic impacts of land use and global change)?

12:10 p.m.

Lunch at NCAR Cafeteria

1:15 p.m.

Evolution of regional hydrologic and climate systems as an initial value problem

Roger Pielke, Sr., Colorado State University

1:40 p.m.

Breakout groups to develop science plan and priorities for three sets of science questions; Collect and organize contributed bullet points

2:50 p.m.

Reconvene as group for general briefing and closing discussions

3:15 p.m.

Agency implementation of research and applications: Recommendations

Panel of agency representatives [NOAA (NWS, NCEP); NASA; USGS; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers]

3:30 p.m.

Adjourn

4:00 - 6:30 p.m.

NRC Committee on Hydrologic Science meets to review workshop

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×
Page 35
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×
Page 36
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×
Page 37
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×
Page 38
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×
Page 39
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants." National Research Council. 2002. Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10337.
×
Page 40
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The Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) of the National Research Council (NRC) is engaged in studying the priorities and future strategies for hydrologic science. In order to involve a broad community representation, COHS is organizing workshops on priority topics in hydrologic science. These efforts will culminate in reports from the NRC on the individual workshops as well as a synthesis report on strategic directions in hydrologic science. The first workshop-Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems-was held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, September 21-22, 2000. Fourteen technical presentations covered basic research and understanding, model formulations and behavior, observing strategies, and transition to operational predictions.

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