NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the Army Research Office, National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NAG5-8651, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Science Foundation under Grant No. EAR-9986796, National Weather Service, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Grant No. X-2895301, and U.S. Geological Survey. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
National Academy of SciencesNational Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpe society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
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COMMITTEE ON A REVIEW OF A PLAN FOR A NEW SCIENCE INITIATIVE ON THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE
ERIC F. WOOD, Chair,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
MARY P. ANDERSON,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR.,
University of Maryland, College Park
DARA ENTEKHABI,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
WILLIAM K. NUTTLE, Consultant,
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
MARC B. PARLANGE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
KENNETH W. POTTER,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,
University of Maryland, College Park
DIAN J. SEIDEL,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland
JOHN L. WILSON,
New Mexico Tech, Socorro, New Mexico
Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Project Director
ANITA A. HALL, Senior Project Assistant
Editor
RHONDA BITTERLI
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD
RICHARD G. LUTHY, Chair,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
JOAN B. ROSE, Vice Chair,
University Of South Florida, St. Petersburg
RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING,
Washington State University, Pullman
GREGORY B. BAECHER,
University of Maryland, College Park
KENNETH R. BRADBURY,
Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison
JAMES CROOK,
CH2M Hill, Boston, Massachusetts
EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
PETER GLEICK,
Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, California
STEVEN P. GLOSS,
U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, Arizona
JOHN LETEY, JR.,
University of California, Riverside
DIANE M. MCKNIGHT,
University of Colorado, Boulder
CHRISTINE L. MOE,
Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
RUTHERFORD H. PLATT,
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
JERALD L. SCHNOOR,
University of Iowa, Iowa City
LEONARD SHABMAN,
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg
R. RHODES TRUSSELL,
Montgomery Watson, Pasadena, California
Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director
LAURA J. EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer
JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Senior Staff Officer
WILLIAM S. LOGAN, Senior Staff Officer
MARK C. GIBSON, Staff Officer
M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate
ELLEN A. DE GUZMAN, Research Associate
PATRICIA JONES KERSHAW, Study/Research Associate
ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant
ANIKE L. JOHNSON, Project Assistant
JON Q. SANDERS, Project Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
RAYMOND J. BAN,
The Weather Channel, Atlanta, Georgia,
Robert C. Beardsley,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
ROSINA BIERBAUM,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN,
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
RAFAEL L. BRAS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, Massachusetts
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD,
Environmental Technology Laboratory, NOAA
CASSANDRA FESEN,
University of Texas, Dallas, Texas
GEORGE L. FREDERICK,
Radian Electronic Systems
JUDITH L. LEAN,
Naval Research Laboratory
MARGARET A. LEMONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MARIO J. MOLINA,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, Massachusetts
MICHAEL J. PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
WILLIAM J. RANDALL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RICHARD D. ROSEN,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
THOMAS F. TASCIONE,
Sterling Software, Inc.
JOHN C. WYNGAARD,
Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania
Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Director
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer
VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Project Assistant
ROBERT A. GREENWAY, Project Assistant
Preface
The global water cycle is central to Earth’s climate. It is a pervasive aspect of the physical, biological, and chemical processes and interactions of the coupled climate system. In addition, water exerts a profound influence on human activities and natural environmental processes. Global change related to anthropogenic effects on climate, land use, and water use increases the uncertainty in forecasts of the water cycle, especially as these forecasts relate to the management of water resources and mitigation of natural hazards. Study of the global water cycle transcends conventional discipline boundaries. Improved knowledge about land surface/atmosphere interactions, including more precise quantification of precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, river flow, groundwater storage and flow, and the movement of carbon and nutrients—particu-larly at the continental and global scales—has been recognized as critical to our ability to understand variability and changes in the Earth's climate system. Consequently, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is planning to devote increased attention to improving knowledge of these phenomena. Last spring, the USGCRP produced the report A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle (USGCRP, 2001). This report was designed to represent a research strategy and scientific plan for investigating the global water cycle, and its interactions with climate and for developing an enhanced understanding of the fundamental processes that govern the availability and biogeochemistry of water resources. The USGCRP managers are currently considering how to move forward with implementation of this ambitious, broad, and potentially very fruitful plan on an interagency basis, and it requested that the National Research Council (NRC) advise them in this regard (see Appendix A).
In response, the NRC appointed a special committee for the purpose of this review. Our committee of 10 members was drawn from the mem-
berships of two NRC standing committees—the Committee on Hydrologic Science and the Climate Research Committee. These two standing committees have much experience relevant to global change science and some knowledge of the water cycle science plan. The members were selected from the two existing committees with an overriding aim of having an appropriately sized committee, with a proper disciplinary composition and free of conflicts of interest and inappropriate biases. As requested, our report provides comments on the water cycle science plan as related to its recommended scientific initiatives and goals, and it provides comments on the usefulness of the water cycle science plan to the USGCRP agencies in developing a coordinated global water cycle implementation plan. We recognize that the Water Cycle Study Group (WCSG), which performed the study for the USGCRP, has finished its work, and thus the usefulness of our review must be considered in the currently developing agency implementation plans.
In preparing this report, our committee sought to address the following statement of task:
The committee will review and provide guidance on implementation of the recent report A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle (USGCRP, 2001). The review will focus on a research strategy and help set scientific priorities for a proposed national program concerning the global water cycle. Specifically, the committee will as-sess and advise on:
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how well the water cycle science plan reflects the breadth and depth of water cycle research currently ongoing and planned in the United States, and the compatibility of this plan with USGCRP objectives, and
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coordination, collaboration, and implementation by the agencies.
In addressing this charge, we have found it useful to organize our advice in this report around four main issues: (1) assessment of the success of the water cycle science plan in addressing the charge to the WCSG, (2) evaluation of whether the water cycle science plan provides sufficient guidance to the USGCRP agencies for them to establish agency implementation plans, (3) assessment of the feasibility of the water cycle science plan’s recommended research strategy and scientific plans, and, (4) recommendations on priorities for the USGCRP program and agency implementation activities.
Our study and the preparation of this report occurred on a rapid timetable of less than three months so as to accommodate the needs of the USGCRP. I appreciate the efforts made by the committee members
and NRC staff in working on this tight timetable to produce a report that should be useful in advancing this important area of water science. The USGCRP initiative on the global water cycle is of vital importance to the nation. The potential disruption to our well-being is significant if anthropogenic climate change affects the water cycle, resulting in changing patterns of rainfall and related changes in river flows, soil moisture, and water quality. The committee recognizes the complexity facing the USGCRP in developing coordinated implementation plans but urges USGCRP to take all possible steps to assure the success of this initiative.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscripts remains confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report and for their many instructive comments: Alan K. Betts, atmospheric research consultant, Pittsford, Vermont; Kenneth R. Bradbury, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey; Stephen J. Burges, University of Washington; Eville Gorham, University of Minnesota (retired); Upmanu Lall, Columbia University; and Margaret A. LeMone, National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc-tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carefully carried out in accordance with the institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Eric F. Wood, Chair
Committee on a Review of a Plan for A New
Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle