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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

DIRECTIONS IN GEN INFER NC RESEARCH AN ASSESSMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES AND NEEDS Report of the Engineering Research Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council Washington, D.C. NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1987

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW · Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciencea is a private, nonprofit, aelf-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matter . Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciencea. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciencea the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also Sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the avarices of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the reponsibility given to the National Academy of Scienece by its congresaional charter to be an ad~riaer to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify isauea of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Reaearch Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and Odorizing the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciencea and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and Rice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by the National Science Foundation, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of the Army, the Department of the Nary, the Department of Energy, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. CPE-8406141 and by the Department of Commerce-National Bureau of Standards under Contract No. 50SBNB4C3137. Library of Congress Cataloging-in Publication Data Directions in engineering research. Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. Engineering—Reaearch—United States. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Engineering Reaearch Board. TA160.4.D57 1987 620'.0072 87-20410 ISBN 0-309-03747-6 Printed in the United States of America First Printing, September 1987 Second Printing, March 1988 Third Printing, May 1989

ENGINEERING RESEARCH BOARD ALLEN E. PUCKETT (Chairman), Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Hughes Aircraft Company JACK ~ . KERREBROCK ~ Vice- Chairman), R. C. MacLaurin Professor and Head, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WILLIAM G. AGNEW, Technical Director, General Motors Research Laboratories GEORGE S. ANSELL, President, Colorado School of Mines JOHN A. ARMsTRoNG, Vice President for Logic and Memory, IBM Corporation ARDEN L. BEMENT, JR., Vice President, Technical Resources, TRW, Inc. DANIEL C. DRUCKER, Graduate Research Professor of Engineering Sciences, Department of Engineering Sciences, University of Florida THOMAS E. EVERHART, Chancellor, University of Illinois Urbana/Champaign RICHARD H. GALLAGHER, Vice President and Dean of Faculty, Worcester Polytechnic Institute EDGAR 3. GARBARINI, Senior Executive Consultant, Bechte] Group, Inc. DAVID A . HoDGEs, Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of California at Berkeley PERRY L. MCCARTY, Chairman and Silas H. Palmer Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University JOHN A. QUINN, Robert D. Bent Professor and Chairman, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Pennsylvania WILLIAM R. SCHOWALTER, Professor and Chairman, Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University l:Eo J. THOMAS, JR., Director of Research 1,aboratories, Eastman Kodak Company · . ~

commiBBion on Engmeer~ng and Technical Systems Liaison Comm~sionere ROBERT R. POSSUM, Dean, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Southern Methodist University PETER W. LIKINS, President, Lehigh University WILLIAM R. SCHOWALTER, Professor and Chairman, Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University Staff RALPH D. COOPER, Executive Director VIVIANE SCOTT, Administrative Assistant/Buf~get Analyst JANET ~ . CROOKS, A Ministrative Secretary ROBERT J. BURGER, Consultant ~ EFFREY P . COHN, Consultant STANLEY W. DOROFF, Consultant COURTLAND S. LEWIS, Consultant 1V

PANEL ON BIOENGINEERING SYSTEMS RESEARCH (1984-1985) JOHN A. QUINN (Chairman), Robert D. Bent Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Pennsylvania LEO J . THOMAS, J R. ~ Vice- Chairman), Director of Research Laboratories, Eastman Kodak Company JAMES BASSINGTHWAIGHTE, Professor, Center for Bioengineering, University of Washington STEPHEN W. DREW, Director, Biochemical Research & Development, Merck and Company YUAN-CHENG B. FUNG, Professor, Applied Mechanics and Bioengineering, University of California at San Diego ARTHUR E. HUMPHREY, Vice President and Provost, Lehigh University ROBERT W. MANN, Whitaker Professor of Biomedical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROBERT PLONSEY, Professor of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Consult ante JEFFREY P . COHN STANLEY W. DOROFF THEODORE ESDERS COURTLAND S. LEWIS

PANEL ON CONSTRUCTION AND STRUCTURAL DESIGN SYSTEMS RESEARCH (1984-1985) RICHARD GALLAGHER (Chairman), Vice President and Dean of Faculty, Worcester Polytechnic Institute EDGAR J. GARBARINI (Vice-Chairman), Senior Executive Consultant, Bechte! Group, Inc. STEVEN J. FENVES, University Professor of Civil Engineering, Carnegie-Mellon University BENC. G ERWICK,JR.,ProfessorofCivilEngineering, University of California at Berkeley JOHN W. LEONARD, Vice President Engineering, Morrison-Knudsen Company, Inc. WILLIAM MCGUIRE, Professor of Civil Engineering, Cornell University EDWARD O. PFRANG, Executive Director, American Society of Civil Engineers LELAND J. WALKER, Chairman, Board of Directors, Northern Engineering and Testing, Inc. Comultants STANLEY W. DOROFF COURTLAND S. LEWIS V1

PANEI, ON ENERGY, MINERAI,, AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH (1984-1985) PERRY L. MCCARTY (Chairman), Chairman and Silas H. Palmer Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University ALONZO W . LAWRENCE ~ Vice- Chairman), Vice President, Science and Technology, Koppers Company, Inc. DOUGLAS W. FUERSTENAU, Professor of Metallurgy arid Director, Institute of Mining and Mineral Resources, University of California at Berkeley ENEAS D. KANE, Retired Vice President of Technology and Environmental Affairs, Standard Oil Company of California WALTER R. LYNN, Director, Program on Science, Technology & Society and Professor, School of Environmental Engineering, Cornell University EDwARD S. RUBIN, Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie-Mellon University P ONISSERIL S OMASUNDARAN, La van Duddleson Krumb Professor of Mineral Engineering, Columbia University ROBERT UHRIG, Vice President, Advanced Systems and Technology, Florida Power and Light Company Consultants STANLEY W. DOROFF COURTLAND S. LEWIS · — V11

PANEL ON INFORMATION, COMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTATION, AND CONTROL SYSTEMS RESEARCH (1984-1985) THOMAS E . EVERHART ~ Co-Chairman), Chancellor, University of Illinois Urbana/Cha~npaign JOHN A . ARMSTRONG ~ Co- Chairman), Vice President for Logic and Memory, IBM Corporation JOSE B. CRUZ, JR., Associate Head of Department, and Professor of Electrical Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana/Champaign WILLIAM G. HOWARD, JR., Senior Vice President and Director of Research & Development, Motorola Corporation ERNEST S. KUH, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of California at Berkeley ROBERT W. LUCKY, Executive Director, Research Communications Science Division, Bell Laboratories JOEL MOSES, Head, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MAX T. WEISS, Group Vice President, Engineering Group, Aerospace Corporation Consultants ROBERT J. BURGER STANLEY W. DOROFF COURTLAND S. LEWIS · . . V111

PANEL ON MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS RESEARCH (1984-1985) DAVID A . HODGES ~ Chairman), Professor, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of California at Berkeley G EORGE S . ANSELL ~ Vice- Chairman), President, Colorado School of Mines G . F REDRIC BOILING, Director, Manufacturing Process Laboratory, Ford Motor Company JoHN G. BOLLINGER, Dean, College of Engineering, University of Wisconsin Madison JOHN A. DECAIRE, Defense and Electronics Center, Westinghouse Electric Corporation JAMES F. LARDNER, Vice President, Component Group, Deere and Company M. EUGENE MERCHANT, Director, Advanced Manufacturing Research, Metcut Research Associates, Inc. RoGER N. NAGEL, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, and Director of Institute of Robotics, Lehigh University MORRIS A. STEINBERG, Vice President of Science, Lockheed Corporation Consultants ROBERT J. BURGER STANLEY W. DoRoFF COURTLAND S. LEWIS 1X

PANEL ON MATERIALS SYSTEMS RESEARCH (1984-1985) WILLIAM R. SCHOWALTER (Chairman), Professor and Chairman, Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University ARDEN L. BEMENT, JR. (Vice-Chairman), Vice President, Technical Resources, TRW, Inc. HAROLD W. PAXTON, Vice President for Corporate Research and Technology Assessment, United States Steel Corporation R. BRYON PIPES, Dean, College of Engineering, University of Delaware BEN G. STREETMAN, Director, Microelectronic Research Center, College of Engineering, University of Texas at Austin JoHN B. WACHTMAN, Director, Center for Ceramics Research, Rutgers University JAMES C. WILLIAMS, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Carnegie-Mellon University KURT F. WISSBRUN, Senior Research Associate, Celanese Research Company ConsuItants ROBERT J. BURGER STANLEY W. DOROFF COURTLAND S. LEWIS

PANEL ON TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH (1984-1985) DANIEL C . DRUCKER (Chairman), Graduate Research Professor of Engineering Sciences, University of Florida WILLIAM G. AGNEW (Vice-Chairman), Technical Director, General Motors Research Laboratories DAVID E. BOYCE, Professor of Transportation and Regional Science, University of Blinom Urbana/Champaign WILLIAM J. HARRIS, JR., Vice President, Research and Test Department, Association of American Railroads JAMES A. HIGGINS, Stanley Associates THOMAS D . LARSON, Secretary of Transportation, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania HERBERT H. RICHARDSON, Vice Chancellor and Dean of Engineering, Texas A & M University A. RICHARD SEEBASS, Dean, College of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Colorado JOHN E. STEINER, Retired Vice President, Corporate Product Development, the Boeing Company Consultants ROBERT J. BURGER COURTLAND S. LEWIS STANLEY W. DoRoFF X1

Acknowledgments Engineering Research Board Any group comprising individuals from diverse engineering fields, however knowledgeable they may be in their own areas, would be hard-pressed to ascertain the most important needs fac- ing the whole of engineering without seeking the advice and views of many others throughout the engineering community. Accord- ingly, the Engineering Research Board gratefully received input of various kinds from a range of sources. We wish to acknowledge, first, the important contributions made by those who spoke to the board during its early meetings, and whose counsel helped to establish the framework for our study. They are the Hon. George A. Keyworth, then Director of the Of- fice of Science and Technology Policy and Science and Technology Advisor to the President; Congressman George E. Brown, Jr., a member of the House Committee on Science en cl Technology; from the National Science Foundation: Nam P. Sub, Assistant Director for Engineering, and Car! W. Hall, Deputy Assistant Di- rector for Engineering; from the Department of Energy: James S. Kane, Deputy Director of the Office of Energy Research, and Oscar P. Manley, of the Division of Engineering, Mathematical, · .— x~n

XIV ACKNO WLEDGMENTS and Geosciences; John W. Lyons, Acting Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Standards; from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Raymond S. Coliaday, Deputy Associate Administrator for Aeronautics and Space Technology, and Paul R. Brockman, Chief of Intergovernmental Affairs (retired); from the Department of Defense, Office of the Undersecretary for Re- search and Engineering: Raymond F. Siewert, Director of Military Systems Technology, and Leo Young, Director of Research and Laboratory Management; and James Spates, Assistant Director for Research, Department of the Army. Our confidence in our own deliberations and findings was greatly augmented by the replies we received to a survey sent out to well over 100 professional societies, universities, government and national laboratories, and Presidential Young Investigators. The assistance of the many individuals who participated in preparing those responses is greatly appreciated. We thank in particular the members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers who helped to prepare several detailed and highly informative reports relevant to the work of various panels. We must take this opportunity to express our gratitude to the many individuals who sat on the seven panels formed by the board, and without whose long and painstaking efforts our own work could not have been performed. Finally, we offer our appre- ciation to the staff and consultants of the Engineering Research Board for their fine and professional support: to Executive Di- rector Ralph D. Cooper, who accomplished the enormous task of organizing and managing the affairs of the panels and the board; to CourtIand S. Lewis, for his tireless effort in writing and as- sembling the board's reports; to Stanley W. Doroff, for his able assistance in collecting, analyzing, and tabulating data for the Board's use; to Robert J. Burger, for his experienced advice on a variety of key issues; to Viviane Scott, for doing a tremendous job as Administrative Assistant and Budget Analyst; and to both Michael Resnick and Janet Crooks, for their dedicated support as Administrative Secretary over the course of the study. Allen E. Puckett Chairman Jack I,. Kerrebrock, Vice-Chairman

A CKNO WLEDGMENTS XV Pane! on Bioeng~neer~ng Systems Research The panel acknowledges with gratitude the many individuals who contributed to its deliberations and to the preparation of this report. We appreciate the thoughtful comments relevant to the work of this pane! provided by many professional societies, uni- versities, government and national laboratories, and Presidential Young Investigators in response to a request by the Engineering Research Board for supplementary information to assist in car- rying out the study. (These institutions and the affiliations of indiviclual respondents are identified in the Appendix.) The Pane! on Bioengineering Systems Research greatly ap- preciates the time and effort that many people gave to making its work more productive. In particular, we wish to thank those who gave invited presentations on aspects of bioengineering research. From the National Institutes of Health: Alian Berson, Devices and Technology Branch, Division of Heart and Vascular Diseases; Robert Dedrick, Chief, Chemical Engineering Section, Biomedical Engineering and Instrumentation Branch, Division of Research Services; Rosalee Dunn, Senior Staff Scientist, Devices and Tech- nology Branch; Murray Eden, Chief, Biomedical Engineering and Instrumentation Branch, Division of Research Services; W. 3. Holliman, Chief, Research Documentation Section, Statistics and Analysis Branch, Division of Research Branch; and John T. Wat- son, Chief, Devices and Technology Branch, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. From the Veterans Administration: Frank Coombs, Manager of the Rehabilitation Program. From the Na- tional Science Foundation: William Freedman, Program Direc- tor, Bioengineering and Research for the Handicapped; Car} Hall, Deputy Assistant Director for Engineering; and Marshall M. Lih, Director of the Division of Chern~cal and Process Engineering in the Engineering Directorate. From the National Bureau of Stan- dards: Jaromir J. Ulbrecht, Chemical Process Metrology Division. And from the National Research Council: David Policansky, of the Committee on Biotechnology Applied to Naval Needs, Board on Basic Biology, Commission of Life Sciences. The pane! thanks everyone who participated in our meetings and contributed to this important task of the Engineering Research Board. Finally, we also thank the consultants/writers: Theodore Es- ders of the Eastman Kodak Company, and Jeffrey Cohn, Stanley

XVI A CKNO WLBDGMENTS Doroff, and Courtiand Lewis for their excellent support and assis- tance in organizing the panel's activities and preparing its report. We are also grateful to the staffof the Engineering Research Board: Ralph D. Cooper, Executive Director; Viviane Scott, Administra- tive Assistant and Budget Analyst; Janet Crooks, Administra- tive Secretary; and Michael Resnick, Administrative Secretary, for their expert assistance during the course of this study. John A. Quinn, Chairman Leo J. Thomas, Jr., Vice- Chairman

A CKNO WLEDGMENTS · — XV11 Pane} on Construction and Structural Design Systems Research The pane! acknowledges with gratitude the many individuals who contributed to its deliberations and to the preparation of this report. We appreciate the thoughtful comments relevant to the work of this pane! provided by many professional societies, uni- versities, government and national laboratories, and Presidential Young Investigators in response to a request by the Engineering Research Board for supplementary information to assist in car- rying out the study. (These institutions and the affiliations of individuals are identified in the Appendix.) The Pane} on Construction and Structural Design Systems Research received assistance from too many people to thank in- dividually. We appreciate the time and effort each person gave to making the panel's work more productive. However, the panel thanks, in particular, John P. Eberhard, Executive Director of the Building Research Board of the National Research Council, for a very instructive presentation on the engineering research related activities of his board. In addition, the pane! is very grateful for assistance rendered in assessing various aspects of the federal construction infrastructure by Richard N. Wright, Director of the Center for Building Technology at the National Bureau of Stan- dards; Noel J. Raufaste, Executive Secretary, International Tech- nology Council, Building Research Board; and Henry A. gorger, Executive Secretary, Federal Construction Council, Building Re- search Board. The pane! also thanks all those who participated in our meetings and contributed to this important task of the Engineering Research Board. Finally, we also thank consultants Stanley Doroff and Court- land Lewis for their excellent support and assistance in organizing the panel's activities and preparing its report. We are also grate- ful to the staff of the Engineering Research Board: Ralph D. Cooper, Executive Director; Viviane Scott, Administrative Assis- tant and Budget Analyst; Janet Crooks, Administrative Secretary; and Michael Resnick, Administrative Secretary, for their expert assistance cluring the course of this study. Richard H. Gallagher, Chairman Edgar J. Garbarini, Vice-Chairman

· - — XV111 A CKNO BLED GMENTS Pane! on Energy, Mineral, and Environmental Systems Research The pane! greatly appreciates the thoughtful contributions made by the individuals and organizations who provided back- ground material for this report. In particular, we thank Dennis Miller, Executive Director of the Energy Engineering Board of the National Research Council, who provided the pane! with in- formation on the board's activities and on needed research in the energy area; Stephen Parker, Executive Director of the Water Science and Technology Board of the National Research Coun- cil, who discussed the activities of this Boars] in evaluating water resource problems; and Myron Uman, Executive Director of the Environmental Studies Board of the National Research Council, who pointed out particular areas in which environmental problems could benefit from acIditional research. The pane! is especially grateful to the many professional orga- nizations, university schools and departments of engineering, and faculty recipients of Presidential Young Investigator Awards who provided detailed discussions of research needs in energy, water, and mineral resources development and on the control of envi- ronmental pollution. Their comments and recommendations on research policy questions as well as needed areas of research in their particular fields of expertise were most useful to the pane! in arriving at its own conclusions and recommendations. (Their re- sponses are summarized in the Appendix.) It was obvious from the materials received that many individuals put a great deal of time and thought into their responses. For this we are most thankful. Finally, we wish to express our appreciation to consultant/ writer Courtiand Lewis for his outstanding support and assis- tance in assembling and organizing material for this report, and to the staff members of the Engineering Research Board especially Ralph D. Cooper, Executive Director; Viviane Scott, Administra- tive Assistant and Budget Analyst; Janet 3. Crooks, Administra- tive Secretary; and Michael Resnick, Administrative Secretary- for the expert assistance they provided during this study. Perry I,. McCarty, Chairman Alonzo W. Lawrence, Vice- Chairman

A CKNO WEED GMENTS X1X Pane] on ~formation, Communications, Computation, and Control Systems Research The pane] gratefully acknowledges the many individuals who contributed to its deliberations and to the preparation of this re- port. We appreciate the thoughtful comments provided by many professional societies, universities, government and national labo- ratories, and Presidential Young Investigators to the survey con- ducted by the Engineering Research Board that were relevant to the work of this panel. (See the Appendix.) In particular, we thank the members of the Institute of Electrical and Electron- ics Engineers' Pane! on Research Priorities in Information and Computing Technology, chaired by Samuel Fuller, for their ex- tremely insightful, incisive, and useful input. We are also grateful to Richard Marsten, of the National Research Council's Board on Telecommunications and Computer Applications, for his presen- tation to the pane! at its first meeting; and to Ivar Stakgold, of the University of Delaware, for his attendance and wise counsel at our meetings. We wish to express our appreciation to the staff of the En- gineering Research Board, especially Executive Director Ralph D. Cooper, for their excellent professional support. Finally, we thank Courtiand Lewis for his considerable help in the writing and assembly of the report. Thomas E. Everhart, Chairman John A. Armstrong, Vice-Chairman

xx A CKNO WLEDGMENTS Pane! on Manufacturing Systems Research The pane! acknowleciges with gratitude the helpful written information it received during the course of its work, which in- fluenced its discussions and the preparation of this report. These thoughtful comments were provided by many professional soci- eties, universities, government and national laboratories, and Pres- idential Young Investigators in response to a request by the Engi- neering Research Board for supplementary information to assist in carrying out the study. (The institutions and organizations that responded or with whom individual respondents were affiliated are identified in the Appendix.) In addition, the Pane! on Manufacturing Systems Research re- ceived assistance from many other individuals and we appreciate very much the time and effort each gave to making the panel's work more productive. We thank in particular the following individuals, who either gave invited presentations on aspects of manufacturing systems research to the pane] or provided expert course! as par- ticipants in its meetings: George H. Kuper, Executive Director, Manufacturing Studies Board, National Research Council; Robert E1wood, Project Director of the Navy's Project for the Rapid Acquisition of Manufactured Parts, Naval Supply Systems Com- mand, U.S. Department of the Navy; Charles E. Feltner, Manager, Manufacturing Systems and Operations Engineering Department, and Ronald G. Huriey, Director of Manufacturing Systems De- partment Analysis Department, Ford Motor Company; Jacob T. Schwartz, Professor of Mathematics, Courant Institute of Mathe- matical Sciences, New York University; Paul Brockman, Assistant Director of Civil Affairs, National Aeronautics and Space Admin- istration; Dennis H. Swyt, Deputy Director, Center for Manufac- turing Engineering, National Bureau of Standards; and Nam P. Sub, Assistant Director for Engineering, Car! W. Hall, Deputy Assistant Director for Engineering, and William Spurgeon, Pro- gram Director of the Manufacturing Systems Program, all of the National Science Foundation.

ACKNO WLEDGMENTS XXI We gratefully acknowledge the expert professional assistance provided by Ralph D. Cooper, Viviane Scott, Michael Resnick, and Janet J. Crooks; and we thank consultants Courtland S. Lewis and Stanley Doroff for the assistance they provided during the course of this study. David A. Hodges, Chairman George S. Ansell, Vice-Chairman

XX11 A CKNO BLED GMENTS Pane] on Materials Systems Research This report was strengthened by the helpful comments and contributions of many individuals and organizations represent- ing the materials engineering research community. The pane! thanks in particular those individuals who gave invited presen- tations on aspects of materials research: Louis C. lanniello, of the Department of Energy; Robert Reynik, of the National Science Foundation; Benjamin Wilcox, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; and Klaus Zwilsky, of the National Materials Advisory Board. We are also grateful for the participation and expert counsel of those who joined us in pane! meetings, includ- ing Bernard Budiansky of Harvard University, Lyle Schwartz of the National Bureau of Standards, and both Tap an Mukerjee and Robert Reynik of the National Science Foundation. In addition, the assistance of Darrell Reneker, of the Office of Science and Tech- nology Policy, Ward Winer, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Jay Benziger, of Princeton University, is much appreciated. The input provided by the many individuals and organiza- tions among them engineering schools, professional societies, fed- eral and national laboratories, and Presidential Young Investi- gators responding to the Engineering Research Board's survey of the research community was an invaluable aid in the prepa- ration of the report. The institutions and the affiliations of the respondents are iclentified in the Appendix. In particular, we are most grateful to the members of an Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers task force, chaired by Professor Gregory E. StilIman, which prepared An IEEE Opinion on Research Needs in Electronic Materials" for the panel. That document was extremely useful in the panel's deliberations.

A CKNO WLEDGMENTS . . . XX111 Finally, we wish to express our appreciation to consultant/ writer Courtiand Lewis for his outstanding support and assistance in assembling and organizing material for this report, and to the staff members of the Engineering Research Board, especially Ralph D. Cooper, Executive Director; Viviane Scott, Administrative As- sistant and Budget Analyst; Janet J. Crooks, Administrative Sec- retary; and Michael Resnick, Administrative Secretary, for their expert assistance during this study. William R. Schowalter Chairman Arden L. Bement, Vice-Chairman L ~

XXIV A CKNO WLEDGMENTS Pane} on Transportation Systems Research This report was strengthened by the helpful comments and contributions of many individuals and organizations representing the transportation engineering research community. The pane! thanks in particular those individuals who gave invited presen- tations on aspects of transportation research: Howard 3. Dugofl:, Science and Technology Advisor for the U.S. Department of ~ans- portation; Raymond Siewert and Jack Bachkosky of the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Allen J. Dowd of the Joint Military Traffic Management Com- mand; Robert C. Waters of the George Washington University; William E. Roper, Director of Engineering Research Programs for the Army Corps of Engineers; Jack W. Boller, Executive Direc- tor of the National Research Council's Marine Board; and A. 3. Evans of the National Research Council's Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board. We are also grateful for the participation and expert course! of those who joined us in pane! meetings, including Gifford Albright of the National Science Foundation, Severino L. Koh of the U.S. Department of Energy, Paul Brockman of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, James Spates of the U.S. Department of the Army, and Robert E1wood of the U.S. Department of the Navy. The input provided by the many individuals and organiza- tions among them engineering schools, professional societies, fed- eral and national laboratories, and Presidential Young Investi- gators responding to the Engineering Research Board's survey of the research community was an invaluable aid in the prepa- ration of the report. These organizations and the affiliations of individual respondents are identified in the Appendix. l

A CKNO BLED GMENTS XXV Finally, we wish to express our appreciation to consultant/ writer Courtiand Lewis for his outstanding support and assistance in assembling and organizing material for this report, and to the staff members of the Engineering Research Board, especially Ralph D. Cooper, Executive Director; Viviane Scott, Adrn~nistrative As- sistant and Budget Analyst; Janet J. Crooks, Administrative Sec- retary; and Michael Resnick, Administrative Secretary, for their expert assistance during this study. Daniel C. Drucker, Chairman William G. Agnew, Vice-Chairman

Preface Engineering ResearEh Board Over the past 40 years the United States has emerged as the preern~nent nation in scientific research. We also enjoy one of the most entrepreneurial environments in the world. Despite these advantages, however, our national competitiveness has eroded in a number of major industries. Although many factors contribute to that eroding competitiveness, it is now widely recognized that a major factor is the lack of adequate attention to engineering research. This is a key link in the chain that includes science research, development, design, production, and service. Today scientific and technical knowledge, along with invest- ment capital, flow freely across national boundaries. With only 6 percent of the worId's population, the United States cannot as- sume that its leadership in any field is secure. U.S. citizens are legitimately concerned with how the country can best maintain its international competitiveness, improve the quality of life for its people, and provide reasonably for their defense. All three of these goals can be met only by reinvesting a portion of the na- tion's resources to improve the prospects for the future. Because resources are finite, a thoughtful, balanced analysis of the current XXV11

~— — XXV111 PREFACE situation and a blueprint for action are essential. To that end, the Engineering Research Board of the National Research Council was formed with these goals: to study the condition of engineering research in the United States and to identify areas requiring priority attention; to evaluate the role of engineering research in contributing to national objectives; and to make recommendations for changes in public policy that would advance these objectives. This report summarizes the results of that study. Contri- butions from hundreds of industrial, academic, and government experts were analyzed in the course of preparing the report. In- terdisciplinary panels made up of leading engineering researchers from academia and industry examined seven carefully chosen ar- eas of engineering systems. Thus, this report represents a major effort by the engineering research community to project its future and clarify its role in meeting major national goals. It is our hope that those concerned with industrial competitiveness, defense, and the public welfare will find it useful as they map the future of the nation. Allen E. Puckett Chairman Jack L. Kerrebrock. Vice- Chairman

PREFACE XX1}C Panel on Bioengineering Systems Research The Engineering Research Board was created by the National Research Council in response to a request from the National Sci- ence Foundation (NSF) for a study of engineering research. In particular, the NSF sought advice on important and/or emerging areas of engineering research. Early in its deliberations, the Engineering Research Board identified seven cross-cutting areas of research to serve as focal points for the study. Separate panels were appointed, each chaired by a board member, to study those research areas. As one of the seven, the Pane! on Bioengineering Research was specifically asked by the Engineering Research Board to: . describe the scope and character of bioengineering re- search; identify important or emerging areas of bioengineering re- search; study policy issues affecting the federal government's sum port of bioengineering research; assess the adequacy of government and industry funding for academic research programs; evaluate the adequacy of mechanisms for attracting young people to bioengineering and related areas; and recommend actions that will improve the overall health of bioengineering research in the United States. . The eight members of the panel were equally divided between those with backgrounds in biomedical engineering and those who are biochemical engineers (see the introduction for definitions of these fields). This division represents the panel's view that the two components of modern bioengineering both have important and distinct research needs and are of vital importance to the nation. The pane] was wed aware that both components of bioengi- neering are subjects of public controversy. The social, ethical, and philosophical questions surrounding such topics as genetic engineering, organ transplantation, artificial organs, human re- productive technology, and life-support technologies are profound and sometimes heatedly debated. Nevertheless, the pane} chose not to address these issues. Our subject is engineering research per se. backing any expertise on these legal, sociological, and even

xxx PREFACE theological matters, we felt we could add nothing of substance to the debate. In conducting the study, the panel used several data sources. In addition to insights provided by panel members, contributions were sought by the Engineering Research Board from 15 profes- sional engineering societies; 20 federal and national laboratories; 80 Presidential Young Investigators; deans of engineering, medi- cal, and dental schools; and selected key officials of the National Institutes of Health and the NSF. Those institutions and the affi~- iations of individuals that responded to the survey with comments and information pertinent to the needs of this pane] are listed in the Appendix. Recent authoritative studies of the bioengineering field were also examined. This report is thus a highly focused effort to characterize bio- engineering research and the environment in which it is carried out. Along with the other members of the panel, ~ hope that the report will help to focus the attention of policymakers, federal re- search agency officials, academic adrn~nistrators, and the research community on matters of critical importance to this dynamic field. . John A. Quinn, Chairman

Contents 1. Directions in Engineering Research: An Assessment of Opportunities ant] Needs 1 2. Bioengineering Systems Research in the United States: An Overview.............................................. ~ . . .77 3. Construction ant] Structural Design Systems Research in the United States: An Overview 115 4. Energy, Mineral, and Environmental Systems Research in the United States: An Overview 142 5. Information, Communication, Computation, and Control Systems Research in the United States: An Overview............................................... 6. Manufacturing Systems Research in the United States: An Overview............................................... 7. Materials Systems Research in the United States: An Overview............................................... 8. Transportation Systems Research in the United States: An Overview............................................... Index . XXX1 182 216 239 281 321

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Surveying the dynamic field of engineering research, Directions in Engineering Research first presents an overview of the status of engineering research today. It then examines research and needs in a variety of areas: bioengineering; construction and structural design; energy, mineralogy, and the environment; information science and computers; manufacturing; materials; and transportation.

Specific areas of current research opportunity are discussed in detail, including complex system software, advanced engineered materials, manufacturing systems integration, bioreactors, construction robotics, biomedical engineering, hazardous material control, computer-aided design, and manufacturing modeling and simulation.

The authors' recommendations call for funding stability for engineering research programs; modern equipment and facilities; adequate coordination between researchers; increased support for high-risk, high-return, single-investor projects; recruiting of new talent and fostering of multidisciplinary research; and enhanced industry support. Innovative ways to improve the transfer of discoveries from the laboratory to the factory are also presented.

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