HUMAN INTERACTIONS WITH THE CARBON CYCLE

Summary of a Workshop

Paul C. Stern

Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop HUMAN INTERACTIONS WITH THE CARBON CYCLE Summary of a Workshop Paul C. Stern Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. NASW-01008 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08420-2 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2002). Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop. Paul C. Stern. Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

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Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop COMMITTEE ON THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE THOMAS DIETZ (Chair), Department of Environmental Science and Policy and Department of Sociology and Anthropology, George Mason University BARBARA ENTWISLE, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina MYRON GUTMANN, Department of History, University of Texas at Austin RONALD MITCHELL, Department of Political Science, University of Oregon EMILIO MORAN, Department of Anthropology, Indiana University M. GRANGER MORGAN, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University EDWARD PARSON, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Environment and Natural Resources Program, Harvard University ALAN RANDALL, Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University PETER J. RICHERSON, Division of Environmental Studies, University of California, Davis MARK ROSENZWEIG, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University SUSAN STONICH, Department of Anthropology and Environmental Studies Program, University of California, Santa Barbara ELKE U. WEBER, Department of Psychology, Columbia University THOMAS J. WILBANKS, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee CHARLES KENNEL (ex officio, chair, Committee on Global Change Research), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego ORAN R. YOUNG (ex officio, International Human Dimensions Program Liaison), Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth College Staff PAUL C. STERN, Study Director DEBORAH M. JOHNSON, Senior Project Assistant

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Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop Acknowledgments The Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change is grateful to the many individuals whose efforts made this workshop summary possible. The committee’s work and other work of the National Research Council in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is supported by a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, acting on behalf of the USGCRP agencies. We also wish to thank the workshop speakers, whose remarks stimulated a rich and wide-ranging discussion (see the Appendix for the workshop agenda). Committee members, as well as workshop participants, contributed questions and insights that significantly enhanced the dialogue. The workshop was conceived by the committee, with organizational responsibility delegated to a planning group consisting of the chair, Thomas Dietz, and members Emilio Moran, Edward Parson, and Thomas J. Wilbanks. This summary was executed by Paul C. Stern, staff director of the committee, to reflect a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop.This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the

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Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: David Cash, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Clark C. Gibson, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego; Diana Liverman, Center for Latin American Studies, University of Arizona; and Robert Mendelsohn, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Oran R. Young, Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth College. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution.

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Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle: Summary of a Workshop Contents     BACKGROUND   1     MAIN THEMES   6     WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS AND DISCUSSIONS   10     Human Dimensions in National and International Carbon Cycle Research,   10     The Future of Fossil Fuel Consumption,   16     The Carbon Implications of Future Land Cover/Land Use Transformations,   21     Modeling Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle,   25     Closing Discussion: Next Steps,   28     REFERENCES   34     APPENDIX: WORKSHOP AGENDA AND PARTICIPANTS   37

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