SCIENCE AND ITS ROLE IN THE NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE

Ocean Studies Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service SCIENCE AND ITS ROLE IN THE NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report and the committee were supported by the National Marine Fisheries Service through a grant to the National Academy of Public Administration. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. International Standard Book Number: 3-309-08462-8 Additional copies of this report are available from: Ocean Studies Board, HA470 The National Academies 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 202-334-2714 http://www.nas.edu/osb Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE CYNTHIA M. JONES (Chair), Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia LEE ANDERSON, University of Delaware, Newark EDWARD HOUDE, University of Maryland, Solomons BONNIE MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey ALISON RIESER, University of Maine School of Law, Portland PATRICK SULLIVAN, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York EDWARD R. URBAN, JR., Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research, Baltimore, Maryland RICHARD D. YOUNG, Crescent City, California Staff TERRY L. SCHAEFER, Study Director, Ocean Studies Board DARLA KOENIG, Senior Project Assistant, Ocean Studies Board The work of this committee was overseen by the Ocean Studies Board.

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service OCEAN STUDIES BOARD NANCY RABALAIS (Chair), Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Chauvin ARTHUR BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMES COLEMAN, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge LARRY CROWDER, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina G. BRENT DALRYMPLE, Oregon State University (ret.), Corvallis RICHARD B. DERISO, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California EARL DOYLE, Shell Oil (ret.), Sugar Land, Texas ROBERT DUCE, Texas A&M University, College Station WAYNE R. GEYER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts D. JAY GRIMES, University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs MIRIAM KASTNER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California CINDY LEE, State University of New York at Stony Brook RALPH S. LEWIS, Connecticut Geological Survey, Hartford BONNIE MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey JULIAN P. McCREARY, Jr., University of Hawaii, Honolulu JACQUELINE MICHEL, Research Planning, Inc., Columbus, South Carolina RAM MOHAN, Gahagan & Bryant Associates, Inc., Baltimore, Maryland SCOTT NIXON, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett JON SUTINEN, University of Rhode Island, Kingston NANCY TARGETT, University of Delaware, Lewes PAUL TOBIN, Private Consultant, Edgewater, Maryland Staff MORGAN GOPNIK, Director SUSAN ROBERTS, Senior Program Officer DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer JOANNE C. BINTZ, Program Officer JENNIFER MERRILL, Program Officer TERRY SCHAEFER, Program Officer

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service JOHN DANDELSKI, Research Associate ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer SHIREL SMITH, Office Manager JODI BACHIM, Senior Project Assistant NANCY CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant DENISE GREENE, Senior Project Assistant DARLA KOENIG, Senior Project Assistant JULIE PULLEY, Project Assistant ALISON SCHRUM, Project Assistant

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Jim Branson, Halibut Cove, Alaska Robert Frosch, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts James H. Cowan, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge Keith Criddle, Utah State University, Logan Michael Orbach, Duke University, Beufort, North Carolina Saul Saila, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett David Sampson, Oregon State University, Newport Harry Scheiber, University of California, Berkeley Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John E. Burris, Beloit College. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service Preface The National Marine Fisheries Service has one of the most difficult jobs in natural resource management. It manages hundreds of species whose habitats span arctic to tropical ecosystems. There are many stakeholders in marine-fisheries management who have often opposing goals. Of the federal agencies, it is fourth in the number of regulations it promulgates, just behind the Environmental Protection Agency. Despite NMFS’s management efforts, many important stocks continue to decline. Moreover, fishing impacts not only target species but threatens the existence of some marine mammals and sea turtles. It is not surprising that, as management goals have grown from obtaining the optimum harvest to responsible and sustainable harvesting in an ecosystem context, that litigation has increased dramatically. This increase in litigation led to the formation of our NRC committee to review the quality of science that underpins NMFS decisions in fisheries management. This report presented several challenges to the committee. First, the subject was complex. NMFS uses science to underpin and inform the development of Fishery Management Plans (FMPs) by the regional councils that include population dynamics, fishery science, ecology, oceanography, socioeconomics, as well as other areas of science. Science is used in meeting the mandates of laws that direct NMFS’s actions and under a governance system that includes the guidance of fisheries-resource users and fisheries managers. Second, the committee had less than five months from their

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service first meeting to submission of the report to external review. To meet this short-time frame and the focus of the study, the National Research Council chose committee members to serve who had worked on at least one previous NRC report that had addressed fisheries issues. This experience was particularly valuable because the committee members were familiar with previous reviews of NMFS science and the findings and recommendations from the NRC reports they helped write. The committee included members who had expertise in economics, ecology, fisheries (including a commercial fisherman), law, population dynamics, and social science. Members also had experience in the process of using science from their memberships on international commissions, Regional Fishery Management Councils, Science and Statistics Committees to these councils, and other government advisory committees. The committee would like to thank the following people who made presentations at its meetings: Luke Nachbar, U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations; Margaret Spring, U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation; Eric Bilsky, Oceana; Val Chambers, NMFS; Kevin Collins, NOAA General Council; David Cottingham, NMFS; Arnold Donahue, National Academy of Public Administration; William Hogarth, NMFS; Eldon V.C. Greenberg, Garvey, Schubert, and Barer; Lamont Jackson, NMFS; Ray Kammer; Jon Korland, NMFS; Rebecca Lent, NMFS; Garry Mayer, NMFS; Mariam McCall, NOAA General Counsel; Jim McCullum, NMFS; Joe Mitchell, National Academy of Public Administration; Craig O’Connor, NOAA General Council; John Oliver, NMFS; Terrance Quinn, University of Alaska; Alan Risenhoover, NMFS; Stephen E. Roady, Oceana; Lamarr Trott, NMFS. Special thanks go to Arnold Donahue, who was the primary liaison from the National Academy of Public Administration, and to Jim McCallum, Rebecca Lent, John Oliver, Alan Risenhoover, and Jason Rothenberg of NMFS, along with many other NMFS employees for providing us with requested materials with alacrity. The committee extends its thanks to the staff members of the National Research Council, Ocean Studies Board who provided leadership and who assisted us so ably. Ocean Studies Board Director Morgan Gopnik helped us to interpret our Statement of Task and kept us on track. Study Director Terry Schaefer contributed tirelessly to all aspects of the committee’s work. His contributions were important, kept us timely, and made this a better report. We thank Greg Symmes, Associate Executive Director, Division on Earth and Life Studies for his assistance during the review process and for

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service his recommendations. Special thanks are due to Senior Project Assistant Darla Koenig, who also did much of the work integrating the committee’s edits, and editing the manuscript prior to review. She provided superb logistical support throughout the meetings. Cynthia M. Jones Chair

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1 INTRODUCTION   9     Agency Responsibilities,   9     Approach of the Committee,   13 2 ADEQUACY OF NMFS DATA, SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATIONS, AND MODELS   15     Adequacy of Science for Stock Assessments,   15     Issues,   15     Uncertainty,   15     Data,   16     Modeling,   22 3 ADEQUACY OF SCIENCE FOR ECOSYSTEM AND BIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS   26     Science Issues: Beyond Stock Assessments,   26     Performance: Perception and Reality,   28 4 ADEQUACY OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA   30

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Science and Its Role in the National Marine Fisheries Service 5 ADEQUACY OF THE USE OF SCIENCE IN FISHERY MANAGEMENT   34     Identification and Expectations of Science and Information Needs,   34     The Role of Science in Decision-Making,   37 6 LEGAL CHALLENGES RELATED TO NMFS SCIENCE: A SAMPLING OF THE LITIGATION   44 7 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   50     Adequacy of Scientific Information for Fisheries Management,   51     Adequacy of Science Related to Marine Ecosystems and Protected Species,   53     Adequacy of Social and Economic Data and Analyses,   55     Use of Available Scientific Information and Advice for Management of Marine Fisheries and Protected Resources,   58     Adequacy of Scientific Expertise Available to NMFS,   65     Priorities for Augmentation of NMFS Science Activities,   66     Funding,   68 REFERENCES   69 CASES CITED   72 APPENDIXES     A   Committee and Staff Biographies   75 B   Acronyms   79 C   National Standards in the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act   81 D   Statement of Task   83