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Moderate over the next 5 years, with a high potential for surprise
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Theft or diversion may not require state assistance and may go undetected if theft occurs in Russia
Stolen or diverted weapons could be converted for terrorist use
HEU-based weapons smuggled into the United States could be difficult to detect and recover
First responders may be killed or incapacitated by attack
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Improve indications and warnings capabilities
Improve security of Russian and Pakistani nuclear weapons at storage sites and borders
Accelerate deployment of sensor arrays at critical U.S. entry points and targets
Develop and announce policies to deter use of weapons by terrorist states
Improve attribution capabilities
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