Index

A

Accuracy measurement, 61

association measures, 62-63 n.7

Chi-square coefficient, 63 n.7

Cohen’s kappa, 63 n.7

comparison group, 35

consistent approach to, 37-51

countermeasures and, 31, 36, 66, 78

and decision threshold, 40, 42-49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.8, 95, 104-105 n.16, 130, 148, 354-357

diagnostic models, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 47, 48, 49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.11, 66, 84, 95, 127, 149

equivariance binormal model, 342-344

false negative probability, 39

false positive index, 35, 36, 38, 39, 61, 62 n.6, 67, 68, 69, 122-123, 180-181, 182, 334, 354-357

false positive probability, 39, 89

funding source for research and, 119-120

limitations of data, 66, 68-69, 109, 115

log-odds ratio, 62-63 n.7

negative predictive value, 39

overestimation, 214

Pearson’s r, 152 n.1

percentage correct index, 31, 43, 46, 49-50, 63 n.8, 129-130, 148

phi coefficient, 63 n.7

positive predictive value, 38, 39, 58-60, 184

purpose of polygraph test and, 22-23, 24, 31, 33-37, 40, 46-47, 48, 60, 101

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve estimation, 342-344, 368

sensitivity and specificity, 38, 39, 43, 45, 48, 78, 85, 91, 94, 122-123, 211 nn.4&5, 318-319, 367-368, 369

theoretical basis, 38, 40, 42, 46, 61, 62-63 n.7, 102, 109, 127-128, 213, 343-344

trapezoidal estimate, 344, 350

used in this study, 43-44, 50-51, 342-344

and validity, 30-33, 66

Yule’s Q, 62-63 n.7



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The Polygraph and Lie Detection Index A Accuracy measurement, 61 association measures, 62-63 n.7 Chi-square coefficient, 63 n.7 Cohen’s kappa, 63 n.7 comparison group, 35 consistent approach to, 37-51 countermeasures and, 31, 36, 66, 78 and decision threshold, 40, 42-49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.8, 95, 104-105 n.16, 130, 148, 354-357 diagnostic models, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 47, 48, 49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.11, 66, 84, 95, 127, 149 equivariance binormal model, 342-344 false negative probability, 39 false positive index, 35, 36, 38, 39, 61, 62 n.6, 67, 68, 69, 122-123, 180-181, 182, 334, 354-357 false positive probability, 39, 89 funding source for research and, 119-120 limitations of data, 66, 68-69, 109, 115 log-odds ratio, 62-63 n.7 negative predictive value, 39 overestimation, 214 Pearson’s r, 152 n.1 percentage correct index, 31, 43, 46, 49-50, 63 n.8, 129-130, 148 phi coefficient, 63 n.7 positive predictive value, 38, 39, 58-60, 184 purpose of polygraph test and, 22-23, 24, 31, 33-37, 40, 46-47, 48, 60, 101 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve estimation, 342-344, 368 sensitivity and specificity, 38, 39, 43, 45, 48, 78, 85, 91, 94, 122-123, 211 nn.4&5, 318-319, 367-368, 369 theoretical basis, 38, 40, 42, 46, 61, 62-63 n.7, 102, 109, 127-128, 213, 343-344 trapezoidal estimate, 344, 350 used in this study, 43-44, 50-51, 342-344 and validity, 30-33, 66 Yule’s Q, 62-63 n.7

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection Accuracy of polygraph testing. See also Criterion validity beliefs about, 7, 20, 22, 54, 55, 59, 79-80, 90-91, 189, 190, 198, 219- 220, 221 computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168 computerized scoring systems, 298, 299-300, 318-320, 330 countermeasures and, 101, 139-148, 151 defined, 31 diagnostic testing analogy, 7, 128-130, 149 drug effects, 86, 138-139, 142, 150 evidence of, 213-215 in field studies, 148, 350-353 format of test and, 89, 124-125, 127-128, 134-135, 136, 138, 139, 254, 346 funding source and, 347-351 historical claims, 107, 294-296 in laboratory studies, 121-125, 148, 150, 204, 344-349, 350, 351 motivational effect, 127-128, 144, 147, 150, 152 nn.1&2 overall, 2-3, 4, 24, 148-149, 212-213 parallel combined tests, 367-368 personality differences of individuals and, 135-136, 150 physiological differences of individuals and, 94, 101, 134- 135, 150 in reality vs. laboratory experiments, 102, 126-130, 132-133, 143-144, 182, 204 reports to Congress, 114 for security screening, 31, 34-35, 36-37, 48, 60, 66, 95, 101, 130-134, 148, 153 n.7 of serial combination tests, 369 sociocultural group identity of examinees and, 101, 136-137, 150 specific incident, 101, 121-130, 148 Test of Espionage and Sabotage (TES), 34-35, 131-132 with thermal imaging, 157 trends, 125, 345-347 variability across studies, 124, 150 Acquaintance test. See Stimulation test Air Force Office of Special Investigations, 263 Airport security screening analogy, 33 Al Qaeda terrorist network, 193, 211 n.6 Alcohol intoxication, 139 Alternative techniques and technologies autonomic indicators, 80, 154, 155-157, 174 brain function measurement, 80, 104 n.9, 154-155, 157-162, 174-175 classes of techniques, 154-155 demeanor, 52, 155, 163-170, 175-176, 201 direct investigation, 155, 170-173, 176, 201 need for evaluation, 7-8, 176, 217 research approach, 99, 227-228 theoretical limitations, 80, 99, 170, 175, 217 American Association of Police Polygraphists, 278 American Polygraph Association, 278 Anthrax terrorism, 193 Anxiety, 135, 142, 158 Arousal theory, 74, 76, 77, 82, 103 n.7, 127, 156, 287. See also Psychophysiological responses Autonomic indicators, 80, 154, 155-157, 174 Assessment of validity. See Accuracy measurement; Construct validity; Criterion validity; Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing; Quantitative assessment of polygraph testing

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection B Background checks, 20, 25, 170-172, 264, 281 Base rate of deception and accuracy measurement, 46, 48, 50, 148, 354-357 and decision threshold, 46, 48, 50, 148, 183, 184, 354-357 diagnostic model, 48, 50, 149 false positive index and, 180-182, 354-357 masking of examiners to, 328, 334, 341 and other uses of polygraphs, 192 in screening situations, 50, 109, 130, 153 n.4, 181-182, 183-184 in specific-incident studies, 130, 181, 184 Behavioral confirmation research, 90 Benzodiazepines, 142 Bite-mark identification, 201, 203, 206-207 Blood pressure, 81, 88, 287, 291, 292, 293, 295. See also Cardiovascular activity “Bogus pipeline” research, 55, 56, 59-60, 110 Brain function measurement, 80, 104 n.9, 154-155, 157-162, 174-175 C Cardiovascular activity, 286-287, 303, 305-306, 309 blood pressure measurement, 81, 88, 287, 291, 292, 293, 295 cardiac vagal activation, 155 countermeasures, 156 heart rate, 308 individual differences in direction and extent of, 82 myocardial contractility, 155-156 respiratory sinus arrhythmia, 156, 308 social and psychological influences, 82, 88-89, 156 traditional measures in polygraph testing, 81, 155 Central Intelligence Agency, 118, 188, 263, 264 Cerograph, 314 Classification error, 311 Cognitive neuroscience, 157-160, 162 Commission on Science and Security, 189. See also Hamre Commission recommendations Comparison question technique. See also Test of Espionage and Sabotage accuracy, 124-125, 127, 128, 135, 346, 351 computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168 countermeasures, 140, 141, 143 dataset for quantitative assessment, 341 directed-lie, 71, 79, 256, 328 inferences from, 104 n.9 legal issues, 205 meta-analyses of laboratory studies, 152 n.1 orienting theory and, 75, 76-77 in pretest interview, 16, 62 n.2, 77, 261 probable-lie, 14, 71, 255, 256, 328 psychophysiological responses, 14-15, 67, 70-71, 72, 74, 76-77, 83, 93 Reid (modified general questions) test, 255, 304, 311, 316, 318 scoring systems, 255-257, 318 situational effects and, 28 n.5, 87, 91 standardization, 91, 256, 311 stimulation (acquaintance) test, 27 n.4, 91, 255, 257, 258 test-retest reliability, 62 n.2, 87 theoretical bases, 69, 70, 72-77, 80-81, 93, 127 thermal imaging and, 156-157 threat-of-punishment theory and, 74, 127 uses, 15, 17, 71, 205, 255, 256

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection validity relative to other tests, 27 n.3, 28 n.5, 67, 69, 79, 89, 253 zone comparison test, 255-256, 304, 311, 316, 318 Computer voice stress analyzer, 167-168 Computerized linguistic analysis, 165 Computerized scoring systems, 64 n.12, 256 accuracy, 209, 217, 298, 299-300, 318-320, 330 algorithm development, 302-318 artifact detection and removal, 306, 319 AXCON, 316-317 Bayesian approach, 315, 319, 366 Chart Analysis, 316-317 comparative evaluation of algorithms, 299, 316-318, 320 Computerized Polygraph System, 298, 299, 302-307, 309-312, 313-314, 316-320 cost-benefit tradeoffs, 195-197 data-mining technique, 299, 301, 312 data used, 300, 302, 303-305, 319, 372 disclosure for assessment, 20 discriminant analysis, 97, 299, 300, 301, 302-303, 309, 310, 313, 314-315, 319, 367 evaluation of demeanor effects with, 52 feature evaluation and selection, 311-314 feature extraction, 307-310, 316, 319 Identifi, 316-317 logistic regression, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303, 309, 312, 313-314, 315, 319, 367 neural network models, 303, 309, 313, 367, 370 PolyScore algorithms, 196, 298, 299, 302-311, 312-320 quantitative assessment of studies, 341 relevance for TES, 303, 318-319, 320 signal processing, 305-307 signal transformation, 306-307, 312, 319 standardization, 307, 310-311 statistical analysis, 217, 311 statistical models for classification and prediction, 298-299, 300-302, 313-316 of thermal imaging, 157 validation strategies, 196, 201, 209, 312-313, 316-317 Concealed information technique, 257 accuracy, 124-125, 127-128, 134-135, 136, 138, 139, 346 brain function analysis, 159-160, 161-162, 175 computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168 countermeasures, 143 expectation bias and, 90 inferences from, 104 n.9 legal issues, 103 n.1, 204-205 meta-analyses of laboratory studies, 152 n.1 peak-of-tension test, 168, 258, 341 principle, 15, 71 quantitative assessment of studies, 136, 341 social interaction effects, 104 n.15, 105 n.17 theoretical basis, 69, 70, 75-76, 93, 103 n.5, 127-128 uses, 15, 24, 204-205 validity relative to other tests, 27 n.3, 28 n.5, 69, 79 Conditional probabilities, 104 n.11 Conditioned response theory, 73, 75 Conflict theory, 72-73, 77 Construct validity, 32-33, 52, 66-67, 96, 103 n.3, 117 Control questions, 14-15, 27 n.3, 253, 254-257, 261, 266 Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation computerized scoring, 195-197 decision making on policies, 61, 95, 190-191, 208-209, 358-363 with friendly thresholds, 42, 44, 45-46, 186-187, 188, 208

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection laboratory studies, 109 quantifying, 61, 180-183, 208-209, 358-363 with suspicious thresholds, 44, 45-46, 183-186, 208 Counterintelligence, defined, 265 Counterintelligence Scope Polygraph testing, 263 Countermeasures access to research on, 118 and accuracy measurements, 31, 36, 66, 78 and adverse personnel actions, 140, 146 biofeedback and conditioning paradigms, 141 brain functional analyses and, 162, 174, 175 defined, 28 n.6 detection of, 22, 144, 145, 147 drug and alcohol effects, 139, 142 effectiveness of, 4-5, 101, 139-148, 151, 216 format of test and, 140, 141, 143 generalizability of studies, 143-144 incentives for use, 145-146, 192, 193 innocent examinees’ use of, 140, 145, 151 levels of use, 139, 146 limitations of research, 4-5, 69, 143-144 mental strategies, 139, 140-141, 143, 147 physical strategies, 139, 140, 143, 144, 289 physiological indicators of, 144 posthypnotic suggestions as, 143 qualitative assessment of research, 332 quantitative assessment of research, 139-148, 151 rationale, 140-142 research questions, 66, 68, 145-147, 231 in security screening, 147, 148, 151 and sensitivity of polygraph, 22, 36, 86, 87 training, 143, 144, 146, 147, 151 Criminal investigations, 14, 254. See also Specific-incident examinations Criterion validity confounding factors, 66 defined, 31 empirical evidence of, 324. See also Systematic review of validation studies measurement. See Accuracy measurement; Accuracy of polygraph testing as value added, 58-60 D Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 67, 98, 103 n.1, 202, 206, 207, 210, 211 n.9, 294 Deception detection. See also Alternative techniques and technologies; Demeanor decision criteria for judging, 1-2, 157 early case studies, 295-296 evaluation of methods for, 221-222 examinee’s expectation of, 20, 22, 54, 55, 59, 79-80, 90-91 overall assessment, 170 psychophysiological, 52 research recommendations, 225-226, 228-229 sensitivity and specificity of indicators, 38, 39 specific issue, 150 training observers, 166 Decision analysis of polygraph security screening, 358-363 Decision theory, 46 Decision thresholds. See also Costbenefit tradeoffs in interpretation accuracy measurement and, 40, 42-49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.9, 95, 104-105 n.16, 129-130, 148, 354-357 base rate of deception and, 46, 48, 50, 148, 183, 184, 354-357 empirical variation in, 47-49

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection federal agency differences in, 186-187 “friendly,” 42, 44, 45-46, 186-187, 188, 219 receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and, 43-45, 46, 49, 62-63 nn.7&9 selection of, 42, 46-47 “suspicious,” 44, 45-46, 183-186, 218-219 Defense Intelligence Agency, 263 Demeanor automated measurements of, 164 and autonomic responses, 82 combined with polygraph, 201 defined, 163 ethical and legal issues, 176 of examinee, 11, 16, 52, 64 n.12, 82, 155, 175-176 of examiner, 256 facial and body movement, 164, 174 graphology, 168-169, 170 linguistic analysis, 165-166 theoretical limitations, 175 thermal imaging techniques, 156-157, 163, 174 voice stress analysis, 166-168, 170, 175 Demographically distinct subgroups, 331-332 Detective Comics, Inc. (DC Comics), 295 Diagnostic models. See Medical diagnostic models Diazepam (Valium), 138, 142 Dichotomization theory, 75, 77 Direct investigation, 155, 170-173, 176, 201 Directed-lie tests, 255, 256 DISC theory, 294 DNA profiling, 85, 104 n.12, 203-204, 207 Drug Enforcement Administration, 263 Drug screening, 53-54, 171, 264 Drugs affecting detection of deception, 86, 138-139, 142, 150 E Electrodermal activity, 288, 303-304, 328 accuracy, 162 countermeasures, 143 differential responses to stimuli, 153 n.5 drug effects on, 138-139 factor analysis of indices of, 100 functional brain imaging combined with, 158-159 lability, 134-135 research approaches, 110, 116-117 skin conductance responses, 82-83, 110, 134-135, 158-159, 288, 302-304, 305, 308, 309, 313, 314, 317, 328 skin resistance measurements, 83, 110, 288, 317, 328 traditional measures in polygraph testing, 81, 155 Electroencephalograms (EEGs), 160-162 Empirical error contextual factors, 87-88 endogenous factors, 86-87 expectancies, 42, 89-91 in inferences from tests, 85-91 stigmas as, 88-89, 101 Employee screening polygraph. See also U.S. Department of Energy security screening examination accuracy, 31, 34-35, 48, 60 criteria for judging answers, 1-2 error sources, 88, 90 random vs. fixed-interval, 53-54 reexamination/rescreening, 112 techniques, 23, 25, 71 Equivariance binormal model, 180, 342-344 Error. See Empirical error Event-related potentials, 155, 160-162, 175 Event-specific investigations. See Specific-incident examinations Examinees. See Polygraph examinees

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection Examiners. See Polygraph examiners Executive Order 12958, 268 Expectancy effects, 20, 22-23, 42, 79, 83, 89-91, 104-105 n.16, 115, 129, 130, 150, 158, 204 Expert scientific testimony, admissibility standards, 12, 67, 98, 103 n.1, 201-203, 206, 207, 293-294, 296 F Facial and body movement, 164 Factor analytic methods, 96 Fallacy of the transposed conditional, 85 False confessions, 28 n.9, 56 False negatives accuracy and, 36, 38, 67, 180-181, 182 base rate of deception and, 180-181 computerized scoring and, 311, 316, 317 corrective measures, 33 costs of, 189, 190, 192, 193, 219, 220-221 decision threshold and, 46, 60, 61, 109, 180-181, 219 examiner expectancy and, 90 parallel combined testing and, 367-368 populations likely to show results as, 31, 76 pretest interview and, 35 probability, 39, 60 serial combination tests and, 369 False positives accuracy and, 35, 36, 61, 62 n.6, 67, 68, 69, 122-123, 180-181, 182, 185, 211 n.2, 334, 354-357 base rate of deception and, 180-182, 185, 211 n.2, 354-357 computerized scoring and, 311, 316, 317 corrective measures, 33 costs of, 6, 54, 60, 179, 185-186, 188, 189, 190-191, 192, 193, 218-219, 220 decision threshold and, 46, 60, 61, 109, 180, 183-184, 185, 218-219 examiner expectancy and, 90 and false confessions, 56 index, 38, 39, 61, 62 n.6, 122-123, 180-185, 211 n.2, 334, 354-357 parallel combined testing and, 368 physiological conditions that produce, 87, 93 populations likely to show results as, 31, 87 pretest interview and, 35 probability, 39, 60, 89 ROC curve and, 46, 180, 316, 360 serial combination tests and, 369 Federal Bureau of Investigation base rate of deceptive individuals, 184, 187 basis for adverse personnel decisions, 36-37 “failures” of polygraph tests, 62 n.5 polygraph screening test, 219, 263-264, 274, 281-282, 284, 293 Webster Commission recommendations, 188-189, 190, 220 Federal Rules of Evidence, 67 Field research accuracy of, 125-126, 148, 350-353 biases in, 304-305 defined, 328 desirable elements, 108-109 experimental, 108, 109-111, 116-117, 120, 316, 328-329 meta-analysis, 333-334 observational, 108-109, 112-116 planned approaches, 116-117 qualitative assessment, 108, 109-120, 304-305, 316, 328-329, 341-342 quantitative assessment, 125-126, 350-353 Fingerprinting, 201, 202, 203 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, 362 Forensic science mainstream science and, 206-208 polygraph testing as, 203-204, 210

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection Frye v. United States, 98, 201, 202, 206, 293-294 Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), 155, 158-160, 174-175 Funding/sponsorship issues, 110, 119-120, 329, 340-341, 347-351 G Game theory, 359 Gender of examinees, and accuracy, 136-137 Generalizability base rate of deception and, 153 n.4 between examiners, 132 of laboratory studies, 109, 143, 204 of specific-incident testing to security screening, 109 theory, 96 H Habituation, 76 Hamre Commission recommendations, 8, 189-190, 220 Handwriting identification, 201, 202 Hanssen, Robert, 187, 189 I Inferences from polygraph tests countermeasures detection, 22 empirical error sources, 85-91, 92 fallacy of the transposed conditional, 85 legal issues, 204-206 logical issues, 84-85 noncooperation and, 22 in preclearance screening, 23-24, 37 scoring method and, 64 n.12 subtractive method, 84, 104 n.9, 108, 110 Integrity testing, 172-173, 177 n.2 Intelligence, defined, 266 Internal consistency, 30 Interpretation of responses. See also Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation; Polygraph charts; Scoring polygraph tests deception indicated opinion, 84, 266, 276 endogenous error sources, 86-87 no deception indicated opinion, 266-267, 282 no opinion, 49-50, 262, 267, 276 no significant response opinion, 38, 77, 262, 283 significant response opinion, 35, 38, 77, 84, 256-257, 262 theoretical issues, 80, 81, 94 unresolved issues opinion, 268 Wen Ho Lee investigation, 30 Interviews and interrogations, 11, 173 Irrelevant questions, 78, 254, 256 Item response theory, 96 J Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 97, 196, 298, 303, 307, 309, 312-313, 318 L Laboratory research, 311, 328, 333, 340-342 accuracy of, 121-125, 148, 150, 344-349, 350, 351 cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation, 109 extrapolation to field use, 126-130, 132-133, 143-144 generalizability, 109, 143 qualitative assessment, 108, 109, 120, 328 quantitative assessment, 60, 121-125, 148, 305, 344-349, 350, 351 of specific-incident testing, 121-125, 148

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection Lafayette Computerized Polygraph System, 261, 298, 303 Lee, Wen Ho, 30, 280-285 Legal issues admissibility of polygraph evidence, 12, 67, 201-208, 211 n.9, 293-294 clinical prediction of violence, 207-208 forensic science, 203-204, 206-208, 210 prosecutor’s fallacy, 85, 104 n.13 Lie detection. See also Deception detection mystique, 18-21, 294-296 revealing truth distinguished from, 21-23 ritualized techniques across cultures, 18-20 scientific approach, 65-69 Local commuting area, 266 Los Alamos National Laboratory, 280 M Machiavellianism, 135 Magnetic resonance imaging, 157-158. See also Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) Marston, William Moulton, 99, 291, 292-296 Medical diagnostic models accuracy measurement, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 47, 48, 49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.11, 66, 84, 95, 127, 149 base rate of deception and, 48, 50, 149 combining information sources in, 197, 364-372 dimensionality problem, 366, 371 expert systems, 369-372 independent parallel testing, 199, 367-368 independent serial testing, 199-200, 368-369 quantitative assessment, 128-130, 149 scoring, 40, 196 statistical classification systems, 199, 365-369 Meprobamate, 138, 142 Meta-analyses deception detection from demeanor, 163-164, 166 of direct investigation techniques, 171, 172-173 file-drawer effect, 118-119 of laboratory studies of polygraph accuracy, 152 n.1 rationale for excluding, 107-108, 333-334 Methylphenidate (Ritalin), 138-139, 142 Modified general question test, 255, 304, 311, 316, 318 Motivational effect on accuracy, 127-128, 144, 147, 150, 152 nn.1&2, 159-160, 170 N National Agency Check, 265 National Defense Authorization Act, 279 n. 2 National Institute for Truth Verification, 167, 168 National Institutes of Health, 2, 108, 111 National Reconnaissance Office, 263, 264 National Research Council, 291, 292, 293, 296 National Security Agency, 14, 254, 263, 264 Naval Criminal Investigative Agency, 263, 264 Negative predictive value, 39

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection O Oak Ridge nuclear facility, 296 Office of Personnel Management, 281 Office of Technology Assessment, 12, 100, 209 Orienting theory, 72, 75-79, 93, 103 n.4, 127-128 P P300 amplitude, 161-162 Pavlovian conditioning, 75, 287 Percentage correct index, 31, 43, 46, 49-50, 63 n.8, 129-130, 148 Personality differences of individuals, 135-136, 150 Personnel Assurance Program, 267, 268 Personnel Security Assurance Programs, 267, 268 Personnel security clearance, 267 Physiological differences of individuals, 94, 134-135, 150 Pneumographs, 81 Polygraph (instrument) Axciton, 298, 303-304, 305, 316-318 defined, 27 n.2, 267 Lafayette, 261, 298, 303 prototype, 291, 292, 296 reliability and validity, 33 secrecy about design, 20, 105 n.18, 305 sensors, 13, 81, 261, 267, 288, 289, 303-304 Stoelting, 303, 305, 318 Polygraph charts. See also Interpretation of responses; Scoring polygraph charts inferences about truthfulness or deception, 22 validity assessment from, 22, 28 n.7, 34 Polygraph examinations, 70-71 admissibility in court, 12, 67, 201-203, 293-294 combining other information sources with, 7-8, 25, 197, 199-201, 209-210, 220, 364-372 components, 16-17 defined, 27 n.2, 267 design of questions, 253, 257 and false confessions, 28 n.9 as forensic science, 203-204, 210 “friendly” vs. “unfriendly,” 17, 22 future potential, 213 logs, 116 mystique, 18, 20-21, 107, 294-296 opposition to, 12, 58, 291, 292-293 origins and history, 291-296 posttest interview, 55 pretest interviews, 16, 34, 54, 55, 62 n.2, 71, 130, 253, 256, 257, 260, 261, 282 procedures and standards, 19, 30, 93, 194-195, 277-278 and public confidence in national security, 57 purposes of, 21-24. See also Uses of polygraph examinations questioning/interrogations. See Polygraph tests report, 267 right to decline, 260 scientific issues, 2-3, 21-24, 65-69, 99-102, 212-213 sequential approach, 95, 304-305 Polygraph examinees. See also Countermeasures beliefs about polygraph accuracy, 20, 22, 54, 55, 59, 79-80, 90-91 consent requirements, 88, 275 fear of being falsely accused, 38, 73, 74, 100, 127 guilty complex, 86 legal representation, 275 moral values of, 255 noncooperation, 22 orienting response, 72, 127-128 physiological/medical conditions affecting responses, 86-87

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection privacy and employee rights, 274-277 sociocultural group identity, 136-137, 150 stigmatized individuals, 88-89, 101, 104 n.15, 109, 136-137 variability within and between, 30, 70, 79-80, 82, 93, 287, 288, 311 Polygraph examiners administering, 262 expectation bias, 22-23, 42, 79, 83, 89-90, 104-105 n.16, 130, 138, 204 interaction with examinees, 22-23, 72, 81, 83, 87-89, 101, 130, 136, 197, 256 inter-rater reliability, 30, 33, 96, 298, 304, 341 latitude in question construction, 30, 68, 71, 78-79, 83, 149 naïve, 121-122, 149 peer, 262 quality control reviewer, 262, 283 skills, 20, 37, 52, 81, 143, 197, 256, 317, 320 subculture, 19, 99, 120, 137 supervisory, 261, 262, 283 training and certification, 16, 19, 33, 119, 133-134, 137, 144, 149, 260, 263, 277-278 variation in decision thresholds, 47-48 Polygraph research. See also Field research; Laboratory research; Quantitative assessment of polygraph testing and adoption of new technologies and practices, 97-98 biases in, 304-305. See also Expectancy effects; Selection bias “bogus pipeline” technique, 55, 56, 59-60, 110 case-control studies, 113, 114, 115 case series, 113 case studies, 113 classified, 118, 148, 230, 231 clinical trials analogy, 111 comparative analyses, 329 contextual issues, 24, 92 cross-sectional surveys, 113 data collection process, 113-114 desirable qualities, 110-111, 112-113, 223-224 on deterrence, 53-54 experimental studies, 109-111 field studies, 108, 109-115, 305, 328, 333, 340-342 funding/sponsorship issues, 110, 119-120, 329, 340-341, 347-350 history, 99-100, 291-296 limitations of, 106, 108 mystique of lie detection and, 19, 20, 21, 111 observational studies, 112-115 obstacles to, 110-111 “open science” strategy, 99, 148, 296 organizational emphasis, 229-231 progress in, 213 prospective cohort studies, 112, 114 quality of, 2, 99-100. See also Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing recommendations, 226-231 relationship to other scientific fields, 95-96 retrospective cohort studies, 112-113 on scoring polygraph charts, 97-98, 298-321 social context and structure of, 98-99 state of, 79-82, 91-100, 102 systematic review of. See Systematic review of validation studies theoretical development. 2-3, 79-82, 92-95, 99, 102, 108, 109, 213 variables of interest, 109-110 Polygraph tests “bogus pipeline” technique, 55, 56 card test, 27 n.4, 74, 257 context of, 25, 70-71

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection control question. See Comparison question technique defined, 16, 27 n.2 guilty knowledge technique. See Concealed information technique inferences from, 83-91 known-solution, 258 monitoring of, 261, 262 numbers test, 27 n.4, 257 physiological responses, 13-14, 71-83 principles, 1, 11, 12-13 purposes of, 21-23 records, 20, 267, 276-277 relevant questions. See Relevant/irrelevant question technique sequence of questions, 254, 261-262 stimulation test, 27 n.4, 91, 255, 257, 258 techniques, 14-15, 16-17. See also Comparison question technique; Concealed information technique theoretical basis. See Theories of polygraph examination validity assessment. See Validity of polygraph examinations value of, 11 Positive predictive value, 38, 39, 58-60 Positron emission tomography (PET), 155, 157-158 Predictive validity, 31, 58-60 Preemployment/preclearance screening, 11-12 accuracy measurement, 36-37, 60 background checks, 171 difficulties with, 2, 150, 216 federal policies, 62 n.4 graphology, 169 inferences from detection of deception, 23-24, 28 n.8, 216 interviews, 173, 177 n.3 pilot studies, 132 purposes, 23, 62 n.3 techniques, 23, 25, 71 Probable-lie tests, 255, 256 Propanolol, 138 Psychological set theory, 74-75, 77 Psychological testing and measurement, 95-96, 103 n.8 Psychometric methods and theory, 96 Psychopathic personalities, 136 Psychophysiological responses alternative technologies, 80 computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168 conditioned response theory, 73, 287 conflict theory, 72-73 controversies, 13 correlation among, 82 “emergency reaction” hypothesis, 82 empirical limitations of research, 80, 81-83, 92 “fight-or-flight” reaction, 82 gender differences, 137 inter- and intra-individual differences in, 70, 79-80, 82, 93, 134-135, 287, 288 in nondeceptive states, 32 psychological set and related theories, 74-75 relative importance of, 37, 51 test conditions and, 17, 28 n.5, 31, 42 theoretical basis, 13, 32, 67, 71-83, 287 unresolved theoretical issues, 32, 79-81, 98 “white-coat hypertension” phenomenon, 17 PsycInfo, 324 Publication bias, 149 Pygmalion effect, 89 Q Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing, 304, 305. See also Systematic review of validation studies conflict of interest, 119-120, 304, 305

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection experimental field studies, 108, 109-111, 116-117, 120, 316, 328-329 laboratory studies, 108, 109, 120, 328 observational field studies, 108-109, 112-116 overview, 107-109 planned approaches, 116-117 pro-polygraph bias, 117-118 unscientific decision making, 117-119 Quality control programs, 194-195, 198, 209 Quantitative assessment of polygraph testing accuracy measurement methods, 43-44, 50-51, 342-344 characteristics of studies, 340-342 countermeasures, 139-148, 151 diagnostic models, 7, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 128-130 expectancy effects, 22-23, 158 extrapolation of laboratory research to field use, 126-130, 132-133, 143-144, 213-214 field studies, 125-126, 350-353 internal validity and salience ratings, 108, 329, 341-342, 346, 352-353 laboratory studies, 60, 121-125, 148, 305, 344-349, 350, 351 limitations of research, 4, 64 n.13, 94, 143-144, 213-214 overall accuracy, 3-4, 24, 148-149 screening studies, 130-134, 149-150 special populations and conditions, 134-139 specific-incident examinations, 24, 121-130 studies included in, 213, 335-338, 340-342 variability in accuracy estimates, 150 Questioning. See Polygraph tests R Racially stigmatized groups, 88, 136, 137 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves computerized scoring and, 316 and decision thresholds, 43-45, 46, 49, 62-63 nn.7&9 estimation from equivariance binormal model, 180, 342-344 and false positive rates, 180, 316 maximum likelihood estimation, 344 parallel combined tests, 368 screening criteria for systematic review and, 325, 340 trapezoidal estiamte, 344, 350 Reid (modified general questions) test, 255, 304, 311, 316, 318 Relevant/irrelevant technique accuracy, 89, 132, 254 contextual factors, 87 countermeasures, 153 n.6 inferences from, 104 n.9 nature and sequence of questions, 70-71, 254, 268, 284, 305 physiological responses, 83, 93 pretest interview, 77 principle, 14 probable-lie, 256 quantitative assessment of studies, 341 scoring, 318 theoretical bases, 72, 73, 77, 78, 93, 103 nn.3&5 uses, 23-24, 70-71 validity relative to other techniques, 253 Reliability defined, 2, 29, 30 internal consistency, 30, 33 inter-rater, 30, 33, 96, 298, 304, 341 test-retest, 29-30, 33, 62 nn.1&2, 87 and validity, 195, 209 Reproducibility of results, 253

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection Research recommendations. See Polygraph research deterring and detecting security threats, 225-226, 228-229 expansion of effort, 8-9, 225, 228-229 objectives, 8-9, 225 potential payoff, 229 program organization, 9, 229-231 Respiratory activity, 81, 83, 155, 289, 303, 306, 308, 309, 313, 314 Response conflict, 159, 162 Ritalin (methylphenidate), 138-139, 142 S Scientific Assessment Technologies, 298, 302 Scientific basis for polygraph testing. See also Polygraph research; Theories of polygraph examination; Validity of polygraph examinations adequacy of, 67-68, 101, 212-213 scientific approach, 65-69 Scoring polygraph charts. See also Computerized scoring systems averaging multiple examiners, 330 blind, 117, 135, 137 decision thresholds, 40, 47-48, 49 diagnostic model, 40 empirical limitations, 81, 83 examiner interpretation, 1, 13, 14, 52, 253, 255, 256, 283, 298, 302, 320 factor analysis, 100 features used in, 308 generalizability to other examiners, 132 global, impressionistic, 103 n.6, 254 numerical, 255-257, 260, 298, 309 pretest phase and, 320 quality control procedures, 194-195, 209 quantitative assessment of studies, 341 as rating procedure, 49, 331 reliability, 328 repeatability of, 30 TES, 77 weighting of channels, 103 n.6 Security screening. See also Employee screening polygraph; Preemployment/preclearance screening; U.S. Department of Energy security screening examination; other federal agencies accuracy of, 6, 31, 34-35, 36-37, 48, 60, 66, 95, 130-134, 148, 153 n.7, 215-216 base rate of deception in, 5, 50, 109, 130, 153 n.4, 181-182, 183-184 combining information sources in, 7-8, 197, 199-201, 209-210, 217, 364-372 countermeasures, 147, 148 criterion of truthfulness, 215 decision making on policies, 61, 95, 190-191, 358-363 decision threshold for, 5-6, 46-47, 50, 183-184, 218-219 difficulties with, 2, 5-6, 215-216, 218 error sources, 88, 90 expert systems used in, 200-201, 217, 369-372 federal agencies’ practices and requirements, 62 n.4, 263-264 focused situations, 193-194, 205, 209 generalizability of specific-incident testing to, 109, 215 inferences from detection of deception, 23-24, 28 n.8 initiation of, 296 literature on, 108, 109, 114, 334, 341 minor security violations and, 34-36, 53, 130, 132, 184 parallel combination test, 199, 367-368 purposes, 23, 62 n.3, 179, 358-359 Q clearance, 281

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection questioning techniques, 14, 15, 23, 152-153 n.4, 192-194, 254, 255, 256, 280 random vs. fixed-interval, 53-54, 359 recent policy recommendations on, 187-190, 220-221 reexamination/rescreening, 112, 133 research questions, 131, 133 serial combination test, 199-200, 209, 368-369 techniques, 23, 25, 71, 192-194 theoretical basis, 80-81, 95 tradeoffs in interpretation, 5-6, 181-183 Selection bias, 112, 113, 114, 115, 316, 317, 320 Self-monitoring, 135 Seven-Position Numerical Analysis Scale, 302 Shepard, John F., 292-293 Signal detection theory, 38, 40, 42, 61, 62-63 n.7, 104-105 n.16, 342-343 Signal value of stimuli, 75, 77 Social interaction effects, 22-23, 72, 81, 83, 87-89, 91, 94, 101, 104 n.15, 150, 256, 370 Social psychology research, 163 Social Science Citation Index, 324 Sociocultural group identity, 136-137, 150 Special Access Program, 268 Specific-incident examinations, 1, 12 accuracy measurement, 31, 34, 48, 60, 352 base rate of deception in, 130, 181, 184 countermeasures, 147 decision threshold in, 184 generalization of data to security screening, 109 quality of research, 114 quantitative assessment of studies, 121-130, 135, 341 scientific evidence from, 2, 334 scoring based on, 303 techniques, 14, 15, 23, 24, 25, 70-71, 254, 255, 257 theoretical basis, 80, 127-128 tradeoffs in interpretation, 181, 184 Standardization issues, 90, 91, 104 n.14, 114, 149, 204, 253, 254, 256, 296, 311 Standardized tests, 172-173 Statement validity analysis, 165 Stigma effects, 88-89, 101, 104 n.15, 109, 136-137, 150 Stimulation test, 27n.4, 91, 255, 257, 258 Systematic review of validation studies committee review, 327-330 contextual analysis, 333-335 critical characterization, 107, 325-330, 340-342 extraction of datasets for ROC analysis, 330-333 initial staff screen, 325-327 integration of results, 333-335 literature search and compilation, 324 question formulation, 323-324 resolution of unresolved issues, 330-331 T Test of Espionage and Sabotage (TES), 282 accuracy, 34-35, 131-132 research, 110, 131-132 scoring, 77, 256, 262, 303, 318-319, 320 standardization, 62 n.2, 91, 104 n.14, 311 technique, 15, 256-257, 261-262 theoretical justification, 77 uses, 256, 260 validity, 134 Theories of polygraph examination. See also specific theories and accuracy measurement, 38, 40, 42, 46, 61, 62-63 n.7, 109, 127-128, 343-344

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection comparison question format, 69, 70-71, 72-77, 80-81, 93, 127 concealed information format, 69, 70, 75-76, 93, 103 n.5, 127-128 interpretation of responses and, 80, 81, 94 psychophysiological responses, 13, 32, 67, 71-83, 287 of relevant/irrelevant format, 72, 73, 77, 78, 93, 103 nn.3&5 for security screening, 80-81, 95, 201 specific-incident examinations, 80, 127-128 status of research, 79-82, 92-95, 99, 102, 108, 109 TES, 77 unresolved questions, 32, 79-81, 98, 201 and validity or results, 32 Thermography, 156-157, 174 Threat-of-punishment theory, 74, 77 Tradeoffs. See Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation Trapezoidal estimate, 344, 350 U Unified test theory, 96 United States v. Scheffer, 201-202 Urinalysis, 264 U.S. Department of Defense, 264 decision threshold for security screening, 186-187, 219 U.S. Department of Defense Polygraph Institute, 19, 49, 55, 99, 119, 120, 134, 135, 137, 156-157, 168, 230, 256, 260, 278, 299, 302, 303, 317, 330, 351 U.S. Department of Energy security screening examination, 15. See also Test of Espionage and Sabotage Accelerated Access Authorization Program, 265, 269, 272 access authorization, 265, 274 accuracy of, 6, 34-35, 218 advance notice of, 274 adverse personnel action, 197, 198, 265 confidentiality of records, 276-277 consent requirements, 275 decision threshold, 6, 186 eligibility evaluation, 266 examiner-examinee interactions, 90 Hamre Commission recommendations, 8, 189-190, 220 information provided prior to, 34-35, 275-276 in-test phase, 260, 261-262 issues covered, 259 legal representation during, 275 methods and procedures, 197-198, 260 Office of Counterintelligence, 266, 273 Office of Independent Oversight and Performance, 269 Office of Security and Emergency Operations, 269, 274 policy changes for laboratory personnel, 189-190, 192, 218-221 positions requiring, 12, 260, 268-269, 270 post-test phase, 260, 262, 282, 284 pretest interview, 34, 260, 261 privacy and employee rights, 274-277 reconsideration rights, 274 refusal to take, 271-272 regulations, 12, 260, 264-278 reinvestigation, 260, 270 standards, 277-278 topics within scope of, 270-271 training of examiners, 260, 277-278 type of test, 34, 62 n.2, 256, 260 uses of results, 260, 272-274, 276 waivers, 269 Wen Ho Lee case, 280, 282-283 U.S. National Science Foundation, 2, 108

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection U.S. Secret Service, 166, 263, 264 Criminal Investigations, 302 Uses of polygraph examinations, 11-12, 23-24. See also Employee screening polygraph; Preemployment/preclearance screening; Security screening; Specific-incident examinations and accuracy measurement, 22-23, 24, 33-37, 40, 46-47, 48, 60-61, 66, 101 base rate and, 192 cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation and, 40, 46-47, 48, 179-194 deception detection, 23 and decision thresholds, 183-187 federal agencies, 187-190, 259, 263-264, 267, 272-274 as interrogation procedure, 17, 23 legal context, 67, 98, 103 n.1, 201-208, 293-294 limitations on, 12, 66, 260 in personnel decisions, 197, 198, 200 policy recommendations of federal agencies, 187-190 theoretical issues, 77, 80-81, 95, 127-128 Utility of polygraph examinations beliefs of examinees and, 6, 19, 22, 52, 54, 56, 61, 176, 199, 214 decision threshold and, 183-187 deterrence, 6-7, 25, 51, 52, 53-54, 58, 61, 112, 176, 186, 187, 225-226, 228-229, 359 eliciting admissions and confessions, 6, 22, 25, 51, 52, 54-56, 57, 60, 61, 91, 115, 187, 214-215 false confessions and, 28 n.9 for investigative purposes, 22, 25 public confidence in national security, 51, 58, 214 validity and, 22, 51-58, 60-61, 63 n.11, 111, 201, 214-215 V Validity of polygraph examinations. See also Construct validity; Criterion validity accuracy and, 30-33, 61 and admissibility in court, 12, 67, 98, 201-208, 293-294 combined with other information sources, 59, 198-199, 209-210, 371 control questions, 27 n.3, 67 cross-validation of combined screening strategies, 371 defined, 2, 52, 63 n.11 disputes about physiological responses, 13-14, 67-68 evidence of, 3-4, 66, 67-68, 213-215 external, 126-130, 132-133 incremental, 59, 198-199, 209-210 internal, 108, 129, 329, 341-342, 346, 352-353 mystique of lie detection and, 18, 20, 21, 52, 54, 56, 58, 199 pretest interview and, 16 questions for assessing, 222-223 reference points, 58-60 reliability and, 195, 209 review of research. See Systematic review of validation studies situational effects and, 17, 28 n.5, 31, 42, 61, 66, 83, 89, 101 standardization and, 104 n.14 theory and, 32 and utility, 22, 51-58, 60-61, 63 n.11, 111, 201 Value of polygraph examinations. See Utility of polygraph examinations Verification bias, 129 W Wackenhut Security, 282 Walker, John Anthony, 53 Webster Commission recommendations, 188-189, 190, 220

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The Polygraph and Lie Detection Wonder Woman, 295-296 X X-ray screening in airports, 33 Z Zone comparison test, 255-256, 304, 311, 316, 318