The Polygraph and Lie Detection

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Table of Contents
Front Matter R1-R18
Executive Summary 1-10
1 Lie Detection and the Polygraph 11-28
2 Validity and Its Measurement 29-64
3 The Scientific Basis for Polygraph Testing 65-105
4 Evidence from Polygraph Research: Qualitative Assessment 106-120
5 Evidence from Polygraph Research: Quantitative Assessment 121-153
6 Alternative Techniques and Technologies 154-177
7 Uses of Polygraph Tests 178-211
8 Conclusions and Recommendations 212-231
References 232-252
Appendix A: Polygraph Questioning and Techniques 253-258
Appendix B: Use of Polygraph Screening in the U.S. Department of Energy and Other Federal Agencies 259-279
Appendix C: The Wen Ho Lee Case and the Polygraph 280-285
Appendix D: Physiological Processes Measured by the Polygraph 286-290
Appendix E: Historical Notes on the Modern Polygraph 291-297
Appendix F: Computerized Scoring of Polygraph Data 298-322
Appendix G: Process for Systematic Review of Polygraph Validation Studies 323-339
Appendix H: Quantitative Assessment of Polygraph Test Accuracy 340-353
Appendix I: False Positive Index Values for Polygraph Testing 354-357
Appendix J: Decision Analysis of Polygraph Security Screening 358-363
Appendix K: Combining Information Sources in Medical Diagnosis and Security Screening 364-374
Appendix L: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff 375-380
Index 381-398

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TABLE 2-1 Results of a Diagnostic Test of Deception of Accuracy (A) = 0.90, with Hypothetical Populations of 10,000 Examinees with Base Rates of Deception of 1 in 2 and 1 in 1,000

2-1A Sensitivity of 80 percent (i.e., threshold set to correctly identify 80 percent of deceivers)
	Criminal Suspects (Base Rate: 1 guilty of 2)			National Laboratory Employees (Base Rate: 1 spy of 1,000)
Result	Guilty	Not Guilty	Total	Spy	Not Spy	Total
“Failed” test	4,000	800	4,800	8	1,598	1,606
“Passed” test	1,000	4,200	5,200	2	8,392	8,394
Total	5,000	5,000	10,000	10	9,990	10,000
2-1B Sensitivity of 50 percent (i.e., threshold set to correctly identify 50 percent of deceivers)
	Criminal Suspects (Base Rate: 1 guilty of 2)			National Laboratory Employees (Base Rate: 1 spy of 1,000)
Result	Guilty	Not Guilty	Total	Spy	Not Spy	Total
“Failed” test	2,500	170	2,670	5	340	345
“Passed” test	2,500	4,830	7,330	5	9,650	9,655
Total	5,000	5,000	10,000	10	9,990	10,000
2-1C Sensitivity of 20 percent (i.e., threshold set to correctly identify 20 percent of deceivers)
	Criminal Suspects (Base Rate: 1 guilty of 2)			National Laboratory Employees (Base Rate: 1 spy of 1,000)
Result	Guilty	Not Guilty	Total	Spy	Not Spy	Total
“Failed” test	1,000	19	1,019	2	39	41
“Passed” test	4,000	4,981	8,981	8	9,951	9,959
Total	5,000	5,000	10,000	10	9,990	10,000

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