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Executive Summary INTRODUCTION Manufacturing has changed dramatically over the past 200 years, Dom simple production lines, to complex assembly lines, and Anally to the advanced manufacturing of the late 20th century. Technological advances such as computers and broadband communications have enabled new methods of production that are more efficient and less costly. Simultaneously, market conditions have changed, with customers demanding more and global competition becoming increasingly intense. A changing international security environment, the need for more advanced weapons systems, and limited resources are placing similar pressures on defense acquisition.' Decision makers at the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) are faced with determining the existence and extent of potential gaps in military capability without engaging in actual conflicts, arid determining the effectiveness and total cost of competing concepts for new weapons systems2 without creating prototypes and testing them in the field. To ensure national security and minimize the risk to troops, DOD decision makers must be able to envision future combat situations, conceptualize new weapons systems, and evaluate their performance and manufacturability in a way that caries less risk, is quicker, and is less costly than before. To continue to perfonn well in the current economic climate, commercial manufacturers must be able to quickly innovate, design, and produce the "right product right" the first time. Modeling and simulations (M&S) technologies are important tools for achieving these "'Acquisition: The conceptualization, initiation, design, development, test, contracting, production, deployment, logistic support, modification, and disposal of weapons and other systems, supplies, or services (including construction) to satisfy DoD needs, intended for use in or in support of military missions." From Glossary of Defense Acquisilion Acronyms and Terms, Tenth Edition, Defense Systems Management College, January 2001. Available at . Accessed June 2002. 2 The term "weapons system" or"system" is commonly used when referring to military equipment; it includes the combination of hardware and software essential for the functioning of such equipment (e.g., tanks, ships, aircraft). A "model" is a mathematical, logical, physical, or procedural representation of some real or ideal system, and "modeling" is the process of developing a model. A "simulation" is the implementation of a model in executable form or the execution of a model over time. Taken 1

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2 MODELING AND SIMULA TION IN MANUFACTURING goals. Recent books describe M&S technologies as changing the way in which natural science perceives complex systems (Cast), 1997) and the way in which forward-thinking companies use simulation to stay competitive (Schrage, 19999. Two recent reports from the National Research Council (NRC) have pointed out the importance of M&S in meeting the future challenges to be faced by commercial manufacturing and defense acquisition (NRC, 1998c; NRC, 1 999b). While the focus of this report is M&S, the study committee recognizes systems engineering as a body of organizing principles and techniques (including M&S) to be applied in manufacturing and acquisition in order to help ensure building the right thing and building it right. Use of systems engineering building blocks at the initial concept stage will show where and how M&S can be applied. Stepping back and using systems engineering to solve the problem of what is needed for effective, pervasive M&S use in complex systems design helps identify gaps in current M&S technologies. These gaps, and steps to begin to fill them, are the focus of this report. The Committee on Modeling and Simulation Enhancements for 21 st Century Manufacturing and Acquisition was formed by the NRC in response to a request from the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) of DOD. The committee was asked to (l) investigate next- generation evolutionary and revolutionary M&S capabilities that will support enhanced defense systems acquisition; (2) identify specific emerging design, testing, and manufacturing process technologies that can be enabled by advanced M&S capabilities; (3) relate these emerging technologies to long-term DOD requirements; (4) assess ongoing efforts to develop advanced M&S capabilities and identify gaps that must be filled to make the emerging technologies a reality; (5) identify lessons learned from industry; and (6) recommend specific government actions to expedite development and to enable maximum DOD and U.S. commercial benefit from these capabilities. To complete its task, the committee identified relevant trends and their impact on defense acquisition needs; current use and support for use of M&S within DOD; lessons learned from commercial manufacturing; three cross-cutting and especially challenging uses of M&S technologies; and the areas in which basic research is needed in M&S in order to achieve the desired goals for manufacturing and defense acquisition. The committee based its discussions on the expertise of committee members, extensive literature reviews, and expert briefings from academia, industry, and government. The committee's recommendations are summarized below. together, "modeling and simulation" refers to the broad discipline of creating, implementing, understanding, and using models and simulations.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RECOMMENDATIONS The committee offers four overall recommendations, each in a major area that it considers a current impediment to the widespread use of simulation-based acquisition (SBA)4 and manufacturing. Technology and infrastructure are two of the four areas in which the committee makes recommendations. Equally important are developing experience in the use of M&S in manufacturing and acquisition and dealing with the culture and human issues inherent in any major change. The goal of the recommendations is to move DOD toward the broader objective of applying SBA to the life cycle of a system-of-systems. This goal includes both selecting the right system to build and building that system to meet demanding expectations for effectiveness, cost, and time to develop and build. An integrated view of these recommendations is critical. Enhancement of technology enables the process. Use of that technology provides experience that guides further use, as well as pointing to important opportunities for further research and development (R&D). Infrastructure allows increased consistency and integration. Finally, people and culture are the bottom line: if the people and the culture in which they live do not trust and embrace M&S in manufacturing and acquisition, it will not happen. Each of the four areas described below, and in more detail in Chapter 6, "Conclusions and Recommendations," must be addressed in order to achieve the desired objective. Technology and Research Overall Recommendation. Long-term research and development should be funded, conducted, and applied to increase the science and technology base for M&S in areas in which current knowledge falls short of that required for manufacturing, acquisition, and life-cycle support of military systems. Recommendation. In order to realize DOD's vision for the use of M&S in manufacturing and acquisition generally, and for SBA in particular, DOD should conduct or support basic research and development in the following areas: 4 "SBA" is defined by the Simulation Based Acquisition Industry Steering Group as "an acquisition process in which DOD and industry are enabled by robust, collaborative use of simulation technology that is integrated across acquisition phases and programs."

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4 MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MANUFACTURING Modeling methods: scalability, multiresolution and multiviewpoint modeling, agent-based modeling, semantic consistency of models, model complexity, fundamental limits of models and computation, and characterization of uncertainty and risk in models; . Model integration: interoperability, composability, integration of heterogeneous processes, and linking of engineering and effectiveness simulations; Model correctness: domain knowledge, including phenomenology of warfare, physics-based modeling, and human behavior modeling; and general verification, validation, and accreditation methods; Standards: M&S standards for interoperability and modeling; general software standards; and higher-layer standards, including enterprise engineering; Methods and tools: for assistance in the translation of system requirements into system functionality. Domain-specific models: including models of emerging areas such as information operations and operations other than war; The military is highly reliant on system-of-systems capability to maintain superiority in a battlefield where sophisticated and effective weapons are proliferating among potential adversaries. M&S technologies are essential to assessing the effectiveness of the system-of-systems in complex warfighting environments, identifying weaknesses in interoperability, and developing operational concepts to use these advancing capabilities. M&S capabilities for systems-of-systems are a difficult yet important area of research. . Recommendation. M&S capabilities should be enhanced so that systems-of-systems have the capabilities- To represent possible design variations, operational use patterns, and engagement scenarios; To contain and make available a library of composable sensor, weapon, and C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) models; To manage interactions among component systems efficiently; and To support analytic and optimization usage modes with visualization, experiment definition, and statistical analysis capabilities. Recommendation. A research initiative should be created at multiple universities to attract academic attention and expertise to the M&S needs of DOD. .

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 DMSO should establish mechanisms to acquire feedback Mom DOD program offices concerning shortfalls in M&S. This ~nfonnation should be used to drive the requirements process for direct funding within the research initiative.5 Recommendation. Transitioning of research into applications should be planned and executed as an integral part of the development process. Infrastructure for Modeling and Simulation Overall Recommendation. DOD should invest in "common good" activities to encourage adequate standards and a strong infrastructure for M&S. Recommendation. DOD should institute incentives for program managers to develop M&S elements that contribute to the general infrastructure, including an annual competition for the best infrastructure contributions. A handbook that illustrates and discusses how M&S can be integrated into program planning documents should be developed. Recommendation. DOD should exploit common elements of M&S to develop a common inhas~ucture capable of supporting consistency and interoperability across programs. This infrastructure should include the following: Common repositories that contain data, models, tools, and environments that persist from project to project and that can support multiple phases of a program; A knowledge base that represents a well-organized information resource in the theory, science, engineering, and craft required for successful M&S development; A trained M&S workforce containing the cadre of professionals, ranging from specialists in M&S infrastructure to M&S researchers, needed to support the wide array of activities and programs that SEA entails; and An information technology infrastructure that will drive the advance of M&S infrastructure at the same time that M&S technologies are being used to design and test the current and next-generation computing and networking technologies that promise exponential increases in power. s ~ Such an initiative is commonly known as a "multiuniversity research initiative" (MURI).

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MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MANUFACTURING Recommendation. A collaborative effort should be stimulated among members of DOD, industry, and the academic community to advance the emergence of standards for performance simulation and product modeling. The following steps should be taken: DOD should remain actively engaged in commercial standards efforts to ensure that DOD needs are considered in the standards development process. DOD should take the lead in the development of standards that lack commercial interest. DOD should develop standard semantics for the data elements used in DOD acquisition-related models and simulations, such as starboard nomenclature, definitions, and units of measure. Use of Modeling and Simulation in Acquisition and Manufacturing Overall Recommendation. Process improvements should be undertaken to better support integration of M&S within DOD's system acquisition process. Recommendation. M&S use should be expanded in the concept exploration phase. M&S and SEA in DOD must have a scope that includes not just "building the thing right," but also "building the right thing." This expanded use of M&S is critical in the context of evolving national security strategy. It should be done during the requirements process in the production of capstone requirements documents and deliberations of the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC). Once it has been determined what "the right thing" is, the principles of SBA should be employed to ensure that individual programs are "building the thing right." Recommendation. A set of guidelines and best practices should be developed concerning model, simulation, algorithm, and data ownership rights among DOD and the industry organizations involved in system acquisition to enhance the potential for collaboration and facilitate reuse of models and software components.

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\ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY To help ensure their acceptance and widespread use, such guidelines and best practices on ownership rights are probably most effectively developed by a working group of DOD and industry acquisition professionals, with international representation as appropriate, convened specifically for this purpose. Recommendation. A deliberate effort should be undertaken to define how M&S is to be integrated into the DOD systems acquisition process, including use of the maturity of the simulation support plan (SSP) as an element in milestone decision reviews and establishing specific evaluation criteria. Recommendation. Incentives should be created and implemented for DOD program managers to adopt best practices for the use of M&S in acquisition and throughout the life cycle of military systems. Recommendation. Pilot efforts should be defined and undertaken as a part of advancing the use of and experience in M&S. They should be sponsored at the level of the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) to explore and document the benefits of collaborative acquisition of systems enabled by advances in M&S and information technologies. A small number of wel]-defined pilot efforts should be undertaken placing special emphasis on exploring potential cross-program benefits of M&S and information-technology-enabled collaborative acquisition. They should be set up in a sequence with time phasing that leads to exploration of system-of-systems issues. Each pilot effort should be constructed to permit the collection of data on specific metrics to estimate potential benefits in performance, cost, and schedule that could result from more widespread application. These pilots efforts should also be constructed so as to guide technical development of M&S and SEA concepts, permitting the necessary risk resulting from an emphasis on learning, and must persist long enough to ensure that the desired learning is realized. The committee recommends that DMSO and the Defense Systems Management College (DSMC) participate in an oversight role to ensure that lessons learned from the pilot efforts are shared effectively with the M&S and acquisition communities.

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8 MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MANUFACTURING Culture and Human Issues Overall Recommendation. If it is to be enabled by M&S, DOD must provide leadership to initiate, support, and sustain a cultural change in the . . . acquisition process. Recommendation. Concerted actions should be taken to fundamentally transform the current acquisition culture in DOD into one characterized by collaboration, cumulative learning, agility, risk tolerance, learning from failure, and appropriate rewards and penalties. The following steps should be taken: DOD's Senior Executive Council should set the direction by creating a vision of the desired acquisition culture and fonnulating and issuing policy consistent with that vision. DOD's Business Initiative Council should institute appropriate incentives for program managers, address issues of data and model ownership, proprietary information, arid intellectual property; identity and address policy, legal, and organizational barriers that inhibit SBA activities; identify and address policy issues associated with the potential international dimensions of SBA; provide needed resources to implement SBA programs; and ensure consistency among service implementations of SBA. DOD's Business Initiative Council should appoint agents of cultural change to develop and implement a strategy to bring about the needed charge in culture by implementing and enforcing rewards, creating a best practices manual, training stakeholders, and convening conferences. . Recommendation. DOD should take the dead in collaborating with academia and industry to build the intellectual capital needed to implement SBA. The following steps are required: support existing and developing new academic degree programs in M&S; establish a multiuniversity consortium; establish a mentoring program; and encourage individuals to maintain and expand their proficiency and expertise in M&S through continuing education. Recommendation. DOD should establish a center of excellence for M&S in SBA. This resource would help create and promulgate the desired acquisition culture and enhance DOD's ties to the academic community.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In addition to promoting the necessary new culture for advancing SBA, it would also help the defense community to invite the academic community to integrate their knowledge and insights into the DOD acquisition world. 9

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