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Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION
Manufacturing has changed dramatically over the past 200 years,
Dom simple production lines, to complex assembly lines, and Anally to the
advanced manufacturing of the late 20th century. Technological advances
such as computers and broadband communications have enabled new
methods of production that are more efficient and less costly.
Simultaneously, market conditions have changed, with customers
demanding more and global competition becoming increasingly intense.
A changing international security environment, the need for more
advanced weapons systems, and limited resources are placing similar
pressures on defense acquisition.' Decision makers at the U.S. Department
of Defense (DOD) are faced with determining the existence and extent of
potential gaps in military capability without engaging in actual conflicts,
arid determining the effectiveness and total cost of competing concepts for
new weapons systems2 without creating prototypes and testing them in the
field.
To ensure national security and minimize the risk to troops, DOD
decision makers must be able to envision future combat situations,
conceptualize new weapons systems, and evaluate their performance and
manufacturability in a way that caries less risk, is quicker, and is less
costly than before. To continue to perfonn well in the current economic
climate, commercial manufacturers must be able to quickly innovate,
design, and produce the "right product right" the first time. Modeling and
simulations (M&S) technologies are important tools for achieving these
"'Acquisition: The conceptualization, initiation, design, development, test, contracting,
production, deployment, logistic support, modification, and disposal of weapons and other
systems, supplies, or services (including construction) to satisfy DoD needs, intended for use
in or in support of military missions." From Glossary of Defense Acquisilion Acronyms and
Terms, Tenth Edition, Defense Systems Management College, January 2001. Available at
. Accessed June 2002.
2 The term "weapons system" or"system" is commonly used when referring to military
equipment; it includes the combination of hardware and software essential for the functioning
of such equipment (e.g., tanks, ships, aircraft).
A "model" is a mathematical, logical, physical, or procedural representation of some real or
ideal system, and "modeling" is the process of developing a model. A "simulation" is the
implementation of a model in executable form or the execution of a model over time. Taken
1
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2
MODELING AND SIMULA TION IN MANUFACTURING
goals. Recent books describe M&S technologies as changing the way in
which natural science perceives complex systems (Cast), 1997) and the
way in which forward-thinking companies use simulation to stay
competitive (Schrage, 19999. Two recent reports from the National
Research Council (NRC) have pointed out the importance of M&S in
meeting the future challenges to be faced by commercial manufacturing
and defense acquisition (NRC, 1998c; NRC, 1 999b).
While the focus of this report is M&S, the study committee
recognizes systems engineering as a body of organizing principles and
techniques (including M&S) to be applied in manufacturing and
acquisition in order to help ensure building the right thing and building it
right. Use of systems engineering building blocks at the initial concept
stage will show where and how M&S can be applied. Stepping back and
using systems engineering to solve the problem of what is needed for
effective, pervasive M&S use in complex systems design helps identify
gaps in current M&S technologies. These gaps, and steps to begin to fill
them, are the focus of this report.
The Committee on Modeling and Simulation Enhancements for 21 st
Century Manufacturing and Acquisition was formed by the NRC in
response to a request from the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office
(DMSO) of DOD. The committee was asked to (l) investigate next-
generation evolutionary and revolutionary M&S capabilities that will
support enhanced defense systems acquisition; (2) identify specific
emerging design, testing, and manufacturing process technologies that can
be enabled by advanced M&S capabilities; (3) relate these emerging
technologies to long-term DOD requirements; (4) assess ongoing efforts to
develop advanced M&S capabilities and identify gaps that must be filled to
make the emerging technologies a reality; (5) identify lessons learned from
industry; and (6) recommend specific government actions to expedite
development and to enable maximum DOD and U.S. commercial benefit
from these capabilities. To complete its task, the committee identified
relevant trends and their impact on defense acquisition needs; current use
and support for use of M&S within DOD; lessons learned from
commercial manufacturing; three cross-cutting and especially challenging
uses of M&S technologies; and the areas in which basic research is needed
in M&S in order to achieve the desired goals for manufacturing and
defense acquisition. The committee based its discussions on the expertise
of committee members, extensive literature reviews, and expert briefings
from academia, industry, and government. The committee's
recommendations are summarized below.
together, "modeling and simulation" refers to the broad discipline of creating, implementing,
understanding, and using models and simulations.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
RECOMMENDATIONS
The committee offers four overall recommendations, each in a major
area that it considers a current impediment to the widespread use of
simulation-based acquisition (SBA)4 and manufacturing. Technology and
infrastructure are two of the four areas in which the committee makes
recommendations. Equally important are developing experience in the use
of M&S in manufacturing and acquisition and dealing with the culture and
human issues inherent in any major change. The goal of the
recommendations is to move DOD toward the broader objective of
applying SBA to the life cycle of a system-of-systems. This goal includes
both selecting the right system to build and building that system to meet
demanding expectations for effectiveness, cost, and time to develop and
build.
An integrated view of these recommendations is critical.
Enhancement of technology enables the process. Use of that technology
provides experience that guides further use, as well as pointing to
important opportunities for further research and development (R&D).
Infrastructure allows increased consistency and integration. Finally, people
and culture are the bottom line: if the people and the culture in which they
live do not trust and embrace M&S in manufacturing and acquisition, it
will not happen. Each of the four areas described below, and in more detail
in Chapter 6, "Conclusions and Recommendations," must be addressed in
order to achieve the desired objective.
Technology and Research
Overall Recommendation. Long-term research and development should
be funded, conducted, and applied to increase the science and technology
base for M&S in areas in which current knowledge falls short of that
required for manufacturing, acquisition, and life-cycle support of military
systems.
Recommendation. In order to realize DOD's vision for the use
of M&S in manufacturing and acquisition generally, and for
SBA in particular, DOD should conduct or support basic
research and development in the following areas:
4 "SBA" is defined by the Simulation Based Acquisition Industry Steering Group as "an
acquisition process in which DOD and industry are enabled by robust, collaborative use of
simulation technology that is integrated across acquisition phases and programs."
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MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MANUFACTURING
· Modeling methods: scalability, multiresolution and
multiviewpoint modeling, agent-based modeling, semantic
consistency of models, model complexity, fundamental limits of
models and computation, and characterization of uncertainty and
risk in models;
.
Model integration: interoperability, composability, integration
of heterogeneous processes, and linking of engineering and
effectiveness simulations;
· Model correctness: domain knowledge, including
phenomenology of warfare, physics-based modeling, and human
behavior modeling; and general verification, validation, and
accreditation methods;
· Standards: M&S standards for interoperability and modeling;
general software standards; and higher-layer standards,
including enterprise engineering;
Methods and tools: for assistance in the translation of system
requirements into system functionality.
· Domain-specific models: including models of emerging areas
such as information operations and operations other than war;
The military is highly reliant on system-of-systems capability to
maintain superiority in a battlefield where sophisticated and effective
weapons are proliferating among potential adversaries. M&S technologies
are essential to assessing the effectiveness of the system-of-systems in
complex warfighting environments, identifying weaknesses in
interoperability, and developing operational concepts to use these
advancing capabilities. M&S capabilities for systems-of-systems are a
difficult yet important area of research.
.
Recommendation. M&S capabilities should be enhanced so
that systems-of-systems have the capabilities-
· To represent possible design variations, operational use patterns,
and engagement scenarios;
· To contain and make available a library of composable sensor,
weapon, and C4ISR (command, control, communications,
computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance)
models;
· To manage interactions among component systems efficiently;
and
To support analytic and optimization usage modes with
visualization, experiment definition, and statistical analysis
capabilities.
Recommendation. A research initiative should be created at
multiple universities to attract academic attention and expertise
to the M&S needs of DOD.
.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5
DMSO should establish mechanisms to acquire feedback Mom DOD
program offices concerning shortfalls in M&S. This ~nfonnation should be
used to drive the requirements process for direct funding within the
research initiative.5
Recommendation. Transitioning of research into applications
should be planned and executed as an integral part of the
development process.
Infrastructure for Modeling and Simulation
Overall Recommendation. DOD should invest in "common good"
activities to encourage adequate standards and a strong infrastructure for
M&S.
Recommendation. DOD should institute incentives for
program managers to develop M&S elements that contribute to
the general infrastructure, including an annual competition for
the best infrastructure contributions. A handbook that illustrates
and discusses how M&S can be integrated into program
planning documents should be developed.
Recommendation. DOD should exploit common elements of
M&S to develop a common inhas~ucture capable of supporting
consistency and interoperability across programs. This
infrastructure should include the following:
· Common repositories that contain data, models, tools, and
environments that persist from project to project and that can
support multiple phases of a program;
· A knowledge base that represents a well-organized information
resource in the theory, science, engineering, and craft required
for successful M&S development;
· A trained M&S workforce containing the cadre of professionals,
ranging from specialists in M&S infrastructure to M&S
researchers, needed to support the wide array of activities and
programs that SEA entails; and
· An information technology infrastructure that will drive the
advance of M&S infrastructure at the same time that M&S
technologies are being used to design and test the current and
next-generation computing and networking technologies that
promise exponential increases in power.
s
~ Such an initiative is commonly known as a "multiuniversity research initiative" (MURI).
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MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MANUFACTURING
Recommendation. A collaborative effort should be stimulated
among members of DOD, industry, and the academic
community to advance the emergence of standards for
performance simulation and product modeling. The following
steps should be taken:
· DOD should remain actively engaged in commercial standards
efforts to ensure that DOD needs are considered in the standards
development process.
· DOD should take the lead in the development of standards that
lack commercial interest.
· DOD should develop standard semantics for the data elements
used in DOD acquisition-related models and simulations, such
as starboard nomenclature, definitions, and units of measure.
Use of Modeling and Simulation in Acquisition and
Manufacturing
Overall Recommendation. Process improvements should be undertaken
to better support integration of M&S within DOD's system acquisition
process.
Recommendation. M&S use should be expanded in the concept
exploration phase. M&S and SEA in DOD must have a scope
that includes not just "building the thing right," but also
"building the right thing."
This expanded use of M&S is critical in the context of evolving
national security strategy. It should be done during the requirements
process in the production of capstone requirements documents and
deliberations of the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC). Once it
has been determined what "the right thing" is, the principles of SBA should
be employed to ensure that individual programs are "building the thing
right."
Recommendation. A set of guidelines and best practices
should be developed concerning model, simulation, algorithm,
and data ownership rights among DOD and the industry
organizations involved in system acquisition to enhance the
potential for collaboration and facilitate reuse of models and
software components.
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\
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
To help ensure their acceptance and widespread use, such guidelines
and best practices on ownership rights are probably most effectively
developed by a working group of DOD and industry acquisition
professionals, with international representation as appropriate, convened
specifically for this purpose.
Recommendation. A deliberate effort should be undertaken to
define how M&S is to be integrated into the DOD systems
acquisition process, including use of the maturity of the
simulation support plan (SSP) as an element in milestone
decision reviews and establishing specific evaluation criteria.
Recommendation. Incentives should be created and
implemented for DOD program managers to adopt best
practices for the use of M&S in acquisition and throughout the
life cycle of military systems.
Recommendation. Pilot efforts should be defined and
undertaken as a part of advancing the use of and experience in
M&S. They should be sponsored at the level of the Office of
the Secretary of Defense (OSD) to explore and document the
benefits of collaborative acquisition of systems enabled by
advances in M&S and information technologies.
A small number of wel]-defined pilot efforts should be undertaken
placing special emphasis on exploring potential cross-program benefits of
M&S and information-technology-enabled collaborative acquisition. They
should be set up in a sequence with time phasing that leads to exploration
of system-of-systems issues. Each pilot effort should be constructed to
permit the collection of data on specific metrics to estimate potential
benefits in performance, cost, and schedule that could result from more
widespread application. These pilots efforts should also be constructed so
as to guide technical development of M&S and SEA concepts, permitting
the necessary risk resulting from an emphasis on learning, and must persist
long enough to ensure that the desired learning is realized. The committee
recommends that DMSO and the Defense Systems Management College
(DSMC) participate in an oversight role to ensure that lessons learned from
the pilot efforts are shared effectively with the M&S and acquisition
communities.
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MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MANUFACTURING
Culture and Human Issues
Overall Recommendation. If it is to be enabled by M&S, DOD must
provide leadership to initiate, support, and sustain a cultural change in the
. . .
acquisition process.
Recommendation. Concerted actions should be taken to
fundamentally transform the current acquisition culture in DOD
into one characterized by collaboration, cumulative learning,
agility, risk tolerance, learning from failure, and appropriate
rewards and penalties. The following steps should be taken:
· DOD's Senior Executive Council should set the direction by
creating a vision of the desired acquisition culture and
fonnulating and issuing policy consistent with that vision.
DOD's Business Initiative Council should institute appropriate
incentives for program managers, address issues of data and
model ownership, proprietary information, arid intellectual
property; identity and address policy, legal, and organizational
barriers that inhibit SBA activities; identify and address policy
issues associated with the potential international dimensions of
SBA; provide needed resources to implement SBA programs;
and ensure consistency among service implementations of SBA.
· DOD's Business Initiative Council should appoint agents of
cultural change to develop and implement a strategy to bring
about the needed charge in culture by implementing and
enforcing rewards, creating a best practices manual, training
stakeholders, and convening conferences.
.
Recommendation. DOD should take the dead in collaborating
with academia and industry to build the intellectual capital
needed to implement SBA.
The following steps are required: support existing and developing
new academic degree programs in M&S; establish a multiuniversity
consortium; establish a mentoring program; and encourage individuals to
maintain and expand their proficiency and expertise in M&S through
continuing education.
Recommendation. DOD should establish a center of
excellence for M&S in SBA. This resource would help create
and promulgate the desired acquisition culture and enhance
DOD's ties to the academic community.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In addition to promoting the necessary new culture for advancing
SBA, it would also help the defense community to invite the academic
community to integrate their knowledge and insights into the DOD
acquisition world.
9
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
acquisition process
