MATERIALS AND MAN’S NEEDS

MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE SURVEY OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

VOLUME II

THE NEEDS, PRIORITIES, AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR MATERIALS RESEARCH

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
WASHINGTON, D.C.
1975



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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research MATERIALS AND MAN’S NEEDS MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE SURVEY OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING VOLUME II THE NEEDS, PRIORITIES, AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR MATERIALS RESEARCH NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WASHINGTON, D.C. 1975

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research MATERIALS AND MAN’S NEEDS MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE SURVEY OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING VOLUME II THE NEEDS, PRIORITIES, AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR MATERIALS RESEARCH NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WASHINGTON, D. C. 1975

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research NOTICE MATERIALS AND MAN’S NEEDS SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON THE SURVEY OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (COSMAT) The content of this Supplementary Report is part of the basis for the Summary Report of the NAS Committee on the Survey of Materials Science and Engineering. In contrast to the Summary Report, however, the views expressed here are those of the various contributors and do not necessarily represent a consensus of COSMAT. Frontispiece: A schematic representation of the materials cycle, portraying its global nature and principal stages.

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research PREFACE The Summary Report of the Committee on the Survey of Materials Science and Engineering (COSMAT) was published in the Spring of 1974. It was based on informational inputs generated by numerous committees, panels, and individuals. That background information has now been organized into this Supplementary Report, Volumes I to IV. In assembling this extensive resource, a complete editorial function was not attempted. Thus, occasional redundancies and overlaps as well as some unevenness in style and coverage will be noted. There will also be found views, and perhaps contradictions, that did not make their way into the Summary Report, inasmuch as the latter reflects a consensus of COSMAT. Nevertheless, we believe that it will prove useful to the science and engineering communities, as well as to others concerned with the broader implications of technology, to have available the rich store of information that was collected by COSMAT. We have organized the present Supplementary Report as follows: Volume I—The History, Scope, and Nature of Materials Science and Engineering, containing Chapters 1, 2, and 3, is concerned mainly with tracing the history and evolution of materials technology, and of materials science and engineering in particular; also with describing the dimensions of the present role of materials in society; and with a study of the way in which materials science and engineering operates as a multidisciplinary field. Volume II—The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research begins, in Chapter 4, with a discussion of how materials research is related to various national goals or “areas of impact.” In Chapter 5, the results of a comprehensive survey of materials research properties are presented, both for applied research related to these areas of impact and for basic research. Chapter 6 provides a description of several of the more prominent materials research opportunities, again both basic and applied. Volume III—The Institutional Framework for Materials Science and Engineering (Chapter 7) describes the industrial, governmental, academic, and professional activities in materials science and engineering in the U.S. In the industrial section, emphasis is given to illustrative descriptions of materials technologies and to the roles of materials scientists and engineers in various types of industry. The governmental section describes the ways in which the federal government is involved with the performance and support of materials science and engineering. The academic section contains detailed qualitative and quantitative information on the status and trends in university education and research both in “materials-designated” and “materials-related” departments and in materials research centers. In the professional section,

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research consideration is given to the characteristics and numbers of materials scientists and engineers, as well as to their professional activities and opportunities. Volume IV—Materials Technology Abroad (Chapter 8) deals with many facets of materials technology, as practiced in other countries. In collecting this information, it was often difficult, or even impossible, to delineate policies and practices specific to the materials field from those pertinent to science and technology in general. In such cases, the broader situation has been reviewed on the assumption that its applicability to the materials sphere is implicit. Volume IV surveys national policies and administrative structures for science and technology, education, R & D, institutions, technology-enhancement programs, technical achievements, and international cooperation. Much of the content revolves around the general theme of technological innovation. It is surely obvious from the magnitude of this Supplementary Report that COSMAT is enormously indebted to a wide diversity of committees and individual contributors, whose inputs and insights have proved so valuable. The COSMAT Panels, Committees, and Consultants are listed in the Summary Report. They and other individual contributors are also referred to in this Supplementary Report. COSMAT is deeply grateful to Marguerite Meyer, Beverly Masaitis, and Judy Trimble for their indefatigable efforts in the typing and assembling of these four volumes; theirs was a prodigious task, indeed. We are also most indebted to Amahl Shakhashiri for her careful editing of these volumes. And once again, COSMAT wishes to acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation and the Advanced Research Projects Agency in this undertaking , carried out under the aegis of the Committee on Science and Public Policy of the National Academy of Sciences. Morris Cohen, Chairman William O.Baker, Vice Chairman Committee on the Survey of Materials Science and Engineering September 1975

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research COMMITTEE ON THE SURVEY OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (COSMAT) *Morris Cohen (Chairman) Massachusetts Institute of Technology *William O.Baker (Vice Chairman) Bell Telephone Laboratories, Inc. Donald J.Blickwede Bethlehem Steel Corporation Raymond F.Boyer Dow Chemical Company *Paul F.Chenea General Motors Corporation Preston E.Cloud University of California, Santa Barbara *Daniel C.Drucker University of Illinois Julius J.Harwood Ford Motor Company I.Grant Hedrick Grumann Aerospace Corporation Walter R.Hibbard, Jr. Owens-Corning Fiberglas Corporation *John D.Hoffman National Bureau of Standards Melvin Kranzberg Georgia Institute of Technology *Hans H.Landsberg Resources for the Future, Inc. Humboldt W.Leverenz RCA Laboratories, Inc. Donald J.Lyman University of Utah Roger S.Porter University of Massachusetts Rustum Roy Pennsylvania State University *Roland W.Schmitt General Electric Company Abe Silverstein Republic Steel Corporation Lawrence H.Van Vlack The University of Michigan Ex Officio Members *Harvey Brooks (as former Chairman, Committee on Science and Public Policy, NAS) Harvard University *N.Bruce Hannay (as Chairman, National Materials Advisory Board, National Research Council, NAS-NAE) Bell Telephone Laboratories, Inc. *Ernst Weber (as Chairman, Division of Engineering, National Research Council, NAS-NAE) National Academy of Sciences *   Members of the Executive Board Survey Directors Alan G.Chynoweth Bell Telephone Laboratories, Inc. S.Victor Radcliffe Case Western Reserve University

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research This page in the original is blank.

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research MATERIALS AND MAN’S NEEDS Supplementary Report of the Committee on the Survey of Materials Science and Engineering Volume I The History, Scope, and Nature of Materials Science and Engineering   Chapter 1: Materials and Society Chapter 2: The Contemporary Materials Scene Chapter 3: Materials Science and Engineering as a Multidiscipline Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research   Chapter 4: National Objectives and the Role of Materials Science and Engineering Chapter 5: Priorities in Materials Research Chapter 6: Opportunities in Materials Research Volume III The Institutional Framework for Materials Science and Engineering   Chapter 7: Industrial, Governmental, Academic, and Professional Activities in Materials Science and Engineering Volume IV Materials Technology Abroad   Chapter 8: Aspects of Materials Technology Abroad

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR VOLUME II Chapter Number Page Number 4   NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND THE ROLE OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING         INTRODUCTION   3     The Nature of National Goals   3     The Relevance-Tree Approach   11     TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORKS   15     The Nature of Telecommunications   15     Dimensions of the Telecommunications Sector   17     Dependence of TC’s on Hardware and Materials   17     Government Involvement in Telecommunications   20     Tomorrow’s TC Technologies   31     SPACE AND DEFENSE   33     U.S. Space Program   33     Materials Development and Space Achievements   39     Materials Needs of the Space Program   40     Some Conclusions   42     Note on Materials Science and Engineering in National Defense   43     NATIONAL GOALS IN ELECTRIC POWER   48     Public Policy and National Goals   48     The Structure of the Industry   50     Industry Changes and Legislation   50

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research     Future Technologies   53     Materials for Electric Power   53     Critical Problems in Materials Use and Development   56     Summary and Conclusions   56     Additional Note on Materials Research Problems   60     Industrial Processes   60     Breeder Reactor   60     High-Temperature Gas Turbines   63     Magnetohydrodynamic Generator (MHD)   64     Solid-State Electrolyte Batteries   64     Superconducting Materials   65     TRANSPORTATION AND MATERIALS NEEDS   67     Changing Goals in Transportation   68     A Spectrum of National Goals in Transportation   70     Major Impacts of Technology on Transportation   70     Materials Technology for Ground Transportation   71     Materials Technology for Marine Transportation   72     Materials Technology for Commercial and Military Aircraft   72     Low-Temperature Composites   72     High-Temperature Composites   73     Oriented Eutectics   73     Conclusion   74

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research     47 Turbines and Generators   252     Area 50 Environmental Quality   253     50 Environmental Quality   257     51 Mining and Raw Materials Extraction   258     52 Pollution   259     53 Recycling and Solid Waste Disposal   260     54 Reliability, Safety, Maintainability   261     55 Substitution Opportunities   261     56 Working Conditions   262     Area 60 Health Services   263     60 Health Services   267     61 Artificial Organs   268     62 Medical Electronics   268     63 Medical Equipment (including dental)   268     64 Prosthetic Devices   269     Area 70 Housing and Other Construction   270     70 Housing and Other Construction   274     72 Highways, Bridges, Airports, etc.   275     73 Individual and Multiple Unit Dwellings   275     74 Industrial and Commercial Structures   276     75 Mobile Homes   276     76 Plumbing, Heating, Electrical, etc.   276     Area 80 Production Equipment   277

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research     80 Production Equipment   281     81 Farm and Construction Machinery   281     82 Industrial Drives, Motors, Controls   281     83 Industrial Instrumentation   281     84 Machine Tools   282     85 Process Equipment   282     Area 90 Transportation Equipment   283     90 Transportation Equipment   287     91 Aircraft   288     92 Automotive   289     93 Guided Ground Transportation   290     94 Water   290     APPENDIX 5A   291 6   OPPORTUNITIES IN MATERIALS RESEARCH   307     INTRODUCTION   307     CLASSES OF MATERIALS   309     Ceramics   309     Glass   310     Metals   311     Superalloys   312     Radiation Resistant Reactor Materials   313     Superconductors   314     Contact Materials   314     Plastics   315

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research     Composites and Concrete   317     Cements   319     Aggregates   319     Reinforcement   320     Electronic Materials   320     Semiconductors   320     Magnetic Materials   322     Optical Crystals   324     Dielectrics   325     Photochromic and Electrochromic Materials   326     Miscellaneous Materials   327     Solid Electrolytes   327     Liquid Crystals   328     Biomaterials   329     MATERIALS PROCESSING   330     Processing and Manufacturing Techniques for Metals   330     Extractive and Process Metallurgy   330     Casting   332     Working   332     Joining and Finishing   333     Metastable Phases   334     Computer Techniques in Processing   334     Rubber and Plastics   335

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research     Electronic Materials   336     Instrumentation, Analysis and Testing   339     BASIC RELEVANT PROPERTIES OF MATERIALS   341     Superconductivity   341     Extensions of Laser Action   341     Fracture Toughness   342     Dynamic Behavior of Defects   343     Flammability of Polymers   344     Photochemistry   344     Corrosion Resistance   345     BASIC GENERAL PROPERTIES OF MATERIALS   347     Interatomic Forces, Chemical Bonding, and Lattice Stability   347     Microscopic Understanding of Phase Transitions   347     Amorphous, Disordered State   348     Impurity Effects in Solids   348     One- and Two-Dimensional Systems   349     Physics and Chemistry of Surfaces   351     Physical Properties of Polymeric Materials   353     Collective Behavior   353     Nonequilibrium Systems   354

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research LIST OF FIGURES FOR VOLUME II Figure Number Page Number CHAPTER 4. NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND THE ROLE OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 4.1   Partial Relevance Tree for Telecommunications   34 4.2   Expenditures for Space Research and Technology   38 4.3   Partial Relevance Tree for Achieving Space Goals   41 4.4   Partial Relevance Tree for Energy   59 4.5   Partial Relevance Tree for Transportation   75 4.6   Partial Relevance Tree for Health Services   81 4.7   Partial Relevance Tree for Environmental Goals   103 4.8   Partial Relevance Tree for Housing   116 CHAPTER 5. PRIORITIES IN GOAL-ORIENTED MATERIALS RESEARCH 5.1   Priority for Basic Research   153 5.2   Priority for Applied Research—Area 10—Communications, Computers, and Control   212 5.3   Priority for Applied Research—Area 20—Consumer Goods   222 5.4   Priority for Applied Research—Area 30—Defense and Space   231 5.5   Priority for Applied Research—Area 40—Energy   243 5.6   Priority for Applied Research—Area 50—Environmental Quality   254 5.7   Priority for Applied Research—Area 60—Health Services   264 5.8   Priority for Applied Research—Area 70—Housing and Other Construction   271

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research 5.9   Priority for Applied Research—Area 80—Production Equipment   278 5.10   Priority for Applied Research—Area 90—Transportation Equipment   284

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research LIST OF TABLES FOR VOLUME II Table Number Page Number CHAPTER 4. NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND THE ROLE OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 4.1   Changes in Federal Budget Outlays, 1950–1972, Selected Fiscal Years   6 4.2   Expenditures for National Goals, 1962 and 1969   8 4.3   Expenditures for Private Consumption, 1962 to 1969   9 4.4   Illustrative Levels in a Relevance Tree   12 4.5   Example Programs Displayed According to Relevance Trees   13 4.6   Types of Equipment in Telecommunications Systems   18 4.7   Elements in the Telephone Handset   21 4.8   Summary of Some Major Achievements in Telecommunications Technology and Related Materials Achievements   23 4.9   Summary of Some Materials Innovations in TC Technology   25 4.10   Characteristics of New Nationwide Networks that May Have an Impact on the Public Network   32 4.11   Space Research and Technology   37 4.12   Some Major Pieces of Legislation Relating to Electric Power   51 4.13   Technological Advances Relating to Electric Power   53 4.14   Materials Employed in the Electric Power Industry   55 4.15   Energy Developments in Which Further Advances in Technology Are Now Limited or Inhibited by Materials   57 4.16   Critical Energy-Related Materials Areas in Which Solutions Appear Possible, Given Substantially Increased Materials Research   58

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research 4.17   Relation of Energy to Value of Materials   61 4.18   Major Events in Transportation Legislation   69 4.19   Changing National Objectives and Priorities Concerning Health Care—Key Documents   77 4.20   Distribution of National Expenditures for Health Care   82 4.21   Materials for Medical Care—1970 Sales and Growth Rate   83 4.22   Materials Innovation in Health Care   86 4.23   Environmental Goals as Presented in Presidential Messages, 1967–1972     4.24   Estimated Volume of Industrial Wastes Before Treatment, 1964.   101 4.25   Changing National Objectives and Priorities—Key Documents   109 4.26   Housing Construction Needs, 1968–1978   113 4.27   Relative Shares of Development & Construction Costs in Different Types of Housing   118 4.28   Relative Shares of Specific Construction Cost   119 4.29   Past Materials Innovations in Housing Technology   121 4.30   Goal-Oriented Materials Research Bearing on Areas of National Impact   134 CHAPTER 5. PRIORITIES IN GOAL-ORIENTED MATERIALS RESEARCH 5.1a   Personal Information   142 5.1b   Discipline of Highest Degree   143 5.2a   Overall Response   144 5.2b   Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Each Area of Impact   145

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research 5.3a   Assessment of the Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Each Area of Impact According to Highest Degree   146 5.3b   Assessment of the Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Each Area of Impact According to Discipline of Highest Degree   146 5.3c   Assessment of the Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Each Area of Impact According to Age Bracket   147 5.3d   Assessment of the Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Each Area of Impact According to Type of Institution   147 5.3e   Assessment of the Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Each Area of Impact According to Type of Activity   148 5.3f   Assessment of the Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Each Area of Impact According to Management Level   148 5.4   Overall Importance of Materials Science and Engineering to Areas of Impact—Classification by Respondees Familiar with Area of Impact   150 5.5a   Priority for Basic Research—Classified According to Highest Degree   155 5.5b   Priority for Basic Research—Classified According to Discipline of Highest Degree   156 5.5c   Priority for Basic Research—Classification by Age   157 5.5d   Priority for Basic Research—Classification According to Type of Institution   158 5.5e   Priority for Basic Research—Classified According to Type of Activity   159 5.5f   Priority for Basic Research—Classified According to Level of Management   160 5.6a   Level of Priority for Basic Research Classified According to Classes of Materials as Rated by Experts in Each Category   162

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research 5.6b   Level of Priority for Basic Research Classified According to Classes of Properties as Rated by Experts in Each Category   163 5.6c   Level of Priority for Basic Research Classified According to Processes as Rated by Experts in Each Category   164 5.7a   Priorities for Basic Research in Materials (Properties)   166 5.7b   Priorities for Basic Research in Materials (Materials)   167 5.7c   Priorities for Basic Research in Materials (Processes)   168 5.8   Sub-Areas of Impact and Responses Received   200 5.9a   Priorities for Applied Research—Properties of Materials   202 5.9b   Priorities for Applied Research—Classes of Materials   203 5.9c   Priorities for Applied Research—Processes   204 5.9d   Priorities for Applied Research—Disciplines   205 5.10a   Rank Ordering of Priority for Applied Research— Properties of Materials (Corrected for Familiarity)   206 5.10b   Rank Ordering of Priority for Applied Research— Classes of Materials (Corrected for Familiarity)   207 5.10c   Rank Ordering of Priority for Applied Research— Processes (Corrected for Familiarity)   208 5.10d   Rank Ordering of Priority for Applied Research— Disciplines (Corrected for Familiarity)   209 5.11   Priority for Applied Research—Area 10—Communications, Computers and Control   213 5.12   Priority for Applied Research—Area 20—Consumer Goods   223 5.13   Priority for Applied Research—Area 30—Defense and Space   232 5.14   Priority for Applied Research—Area 40—Energy   244 5.15   Priority for Applied Research—Area 50—Environmental Quality   255

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Materials and Man’s Needs Materials Science and Engineering: Volume II The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research 5.16   Priority for Applied Research—Area 60—Health Services   265 5.17   Priority for Applied Research—Area 70—Housing and Other Construction   272 5.18   Priority for Applied Research—Area 80—Production Equipment   279 5.19   Priority for Applied Research—Area 90—Transportation Equipment   285