Materials and Man's Needs: Materials Science and Engineering -- Volume II, The Needs, Priorities, and Opportunities for Materials Research (1975)

CHAPTER 4

NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND THE ROLE OF MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING*

There are different kinds of national goals. Some are ultimate objectives of society and are as old as the Constitution and its amendments. These goals define the kind of society we try to be, but they are not, as a rule, reducible to tasks for science and engineering. “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” are objectives that can be and are advanced by achievements in science and technology, but one would find it hard to derive from them specific programs in MSE. We may call them aspirations, principles, concepts, ideals, or goals, if we like.

Below this towering top comes a layer of other comprehensive national goals that embraces and defines areas of endeavor. Provision of free education for all is an old one; free medical care for the aged a more recent one While subject to change in detail, these are nonetheless continuing objectives, but, in any hierarchy of goals, they still lie above those that are more directly related to technological or materials tasks.

Moreover, one does well to think of a wide spectrum of kinds of goals as well as of a ranking. Various types of goals in the science and technology field alone are, for example—

Similar diversity exists along other classes of goals, i.e., one can distinguish between social goals, goals of scientific understanding, goals associated with pragmatic application of knowledge, and surely others.

Anyone searching for a repository of national goals or anything approaching it will be disappointed. Some goals are so persistent and fundamental that they are built into the conscience of the nation and of every citizen. The various “freedoms,” both from and to, are of that kind. Others are implied in the structure of American society. Easing of upward social mobility, for example, would be hard to identify in any piece of legislation, yet it is undoubtedly a pervasive goal. So is increased man-hour productivity. These are canons by which we live and act.

As one leaves the loftier goals and focuses more on the recent past, it becomes easier to identify specifically formulated goals; this is largely because they cannot be taken for granted, are not “self-evident,” but arise out of changing perceptions, as crystallization of widely-felt needs, as responses to events, or sometimes as “brainchildren” of illustrious citizens. In short, as the level of aggregation drops, the degree of specificity increases. As a result, one can ascertain and assert more forcefully that a goal does in fact exist, and one can more easily link the likelihood of its achievement to activities in MSE.

A useful distinction can be made between goals that have been formulated at some level of government—usually at the federal level—and are embedded in a piece of legislation, an Executive Order, a regulation, and those that rest on a less conspicuous basis, yet partake of the nature of national goals. The “conquest of polio” as compared with the “conquest of cancer” serves to illustrate the difference. The latter is an organized and specifically financed societal goal embedded in a federal statute. The fight against polio, supported financially largely by the annual “March of Dimes,” undoubtedly was as much the expression of national desire, but its implementation was diffuse, unstructured, and left to individual initiative and excellence.

In the category of the less articulate, an interesting national goal and of significance to MSE is one that might be called “economic strength.” While there exists a whole fabric or arsenal of laws designed to facilitate the smooth functioning of the economy (to strengthen competition, safeguard the sanctity of contracts, minimize labor disputes, encourage inventiveness, etc., etc.) one can point only to a single piece of legislation that sets up “economic strength or (disregarding recent misgivings as to its validity) “growth” as a national goal. That legislation was the Employment Act of 1946, which was aimed at establishing “maximum employment, production and purchasing power” as a national goal, or as a trinity of goals.

Only once in recent times has there been a governmental attempt to formulate specific national goals as guides to policy. That was under the Eisenhower Administration, when it adopted the recommendations of the Presidential Commission on National Goals. A different approach was taken by President Nixon when he set up in the Executive Office a “goals research staff” intended to be a permanent feature but disbanded after it had

rendered its first report to the nation. The chapters of that report, issued July 4, 1970, are entitled “Population Growth and Distribution,” “Environment,” “Education,” “Basic National Science,” “Technology Assessment,” “Consumerism,” “Economic Choice and Balanced Growth,” and “Toward Balanced Growth.” Obviously, these are not goals. Rather, the topics suggest that in the process of selection, the Staff tried to determine in what areas conflicts would in the future have to be resolved, objectives established, and debates carried on.

Given the difficulty of defining goals and finding documentary support, the multiplicity of types of goals, their changing nature and stress, and COSMAT’s reluctance to consider itself appropriately composed for conducting an exercise in determining comprehensively what the nation’s goals seem to be, we have chosen a more modest way for evaluating the relationship between goals and MSE. We have selected some areas of national concern that affect all citizens in their daily lives and some that affect the nation’s fate as a whole, and have endeavored to show how needed advances can be assisted by contributions from MSE. We have concentrated on areas where (a) the materials aspect is, if not critical, at least obvious, (b) the contributions that materials advances might make are more easily demonstrated. Change is also a characteristic of the goals of interest to the materials community: change in the priorities among goals and changing emphasis within each. Changing priorities show up clearly when we consider either federal funding alone, overall public spending, or expenditures as reflected in the Gross National Product. Trends within broad goals are discussed extensively in the balance of this chapter.

Limiting our review of federal spending to the recent past, we can clearly identify a number of trends in the allocation of funds (see Table 4.1). Defense, space, and international affairs, in which grouping the first accounts for the lion’s share, declined from 62 percent in 1955 to 37 percent in 1972, though absolute amounts for the same period rose from 42 to 86 billion (current) dollars. The relative decline was due mainly to the continuing and rapid rise in outlays aggregated under the generic term “Income Maintenance;” this item rose from 15 to 85 billion dollars over the same 17-year period and is now about equal to the defense/space/international affairs group in magnitude. Income maintenance comprises above all social security, welfare, and veterans pay, but also includes access to medical care and education.

In relative terms, investment in human and physical resources has risen even more rapidly, as have housing and community development. There are important differences, however. For one thing, the absolute amounts involved are much smaller. Secondly, in the case of investment in physical resources (commerce, transportation, natural resources), growth has been discontinuous; a jump occurred in the second half of the 1950’s, and relative outlays have been on a plateau since. Thirdly, by way of contrast, in the case of housing and community development, the rise has been very recent. Only in the area of investment in human resources has there been a steady absolute as well as relative upward movement in federal spending, mostly in the field of education (Medicare outlays in this auditing scheme are carried under “income maintenance”).

Federal outlays, of course, constitute only a portion of public spending. State and local government expenditures account for the balance. These have

risen more rapidly than federal funds: from not quite 40 billion (current) dollars in 1955 to 132 in 1969 (the most recent year for which published data permit these comparisons to be made). Put differently, state and local expenditures have advanced from 36 to 43 percent of total governmental expenditures between 1955 and 1969, with schools, highways, and welfare accounting for the bulk of state and local outlays. If one then aggregates public expenditures at all levels of government, it turns out that in 1969, defense and international affairs for instance, accounted for 27 percent (as against the more than 40 percent in the federal picture), and education for over 16 percent (compared to about 6 percent under the total “investment in human resources” item in the allocation of federal funds). Going beyond public spending, Table 4.2 presents society’s total expenditures in the 1960’s, cast in terms of specified national goals as patterned by a continuing study of the National Planning Association. Significant features of the presentation are the slower than average rise of national defense, agriculture, international aid, housing, and R&D. On the uptrend side are social welfare, education, transportation, health, natural resources, and private plant and equipment. By and large then, the picture parallels the one portrayed by the changes in public spending, except that all spending for housing is down, while governmental spending is up.

The private consumption sector is of course a vast mix of incommensurables. To get closer to an understanding of its evolution in terms of materials, Table 4.3 presents a breakdown into three major categories.

Perhaps the most interesting feature of Table 4.3 is the relatively rapid rise in expenditures for durables as compared with nondurables and services, though the increase in the last-named category precisely equals that of the entire group (and of GNP as a whole). It suggests that the trend toward services is not nearly as pronounced in private consumer expenditures as in the economy as a whole. With regard to goods, it does indicate that there has been much growth in precisely that segment of private consumption where materials can have their greatest impact: durable goods.

A final comparison, before we draw some conclusions for the impact on the materials community of shifting public-expenditure trends, pertains to the relationship between the funding agency and the consumer of the result of funding. That is, in the case of defense and space outlays, the funder is at the same time the principal, if not the only, consumer of the product arising as the result of the funded expenditures. Such expenditures made, in other words, consitute close to 100 percent of the GNP for that function. In sharp contrast, federal transportation outlays represent only 6 to 7 percent of the output of the transportation industry, and still only 20 percent when state and local expenditures are included. In education and manpower, federal outlays represent a little over 10 percent of the GNP in that segment, but the percentage rises to nearly 90 when state and local expenditures are factored in. The corresponding figures in the health sector have recently run about 25 and 40 percent, respectively. They are lowest of all in housing; whether or not state and local expenditures are included, governmental outlays represent only about 6 percent of the output used.¹

The above sketch suggests four major implications for the materials field. First, those segments of public spending that were prominent in funding R&D have suffered a relative decline. Second, the segment that has increased most in relative importance, i.e., income maintenance, has little direct linkage with materials. Third, those segments that have increased and do have an association with materials problems (housing, transport, etc.) account for only a minor share of the GNP generated in these sectors, i.e. whatever funding is performed will not, as compared with, say, defense, be directly translated into a ready market for the output. Fourth, the rising importance of state and local spending spells a shift to human resource development, prominently education (see above) and thus represents growth in an area in which so far at least materials have not played a key role.

Given the enormous weight of “consumer expenditures” in the nation’s GNP, it is obvious that such inarticulate goals as durability, reliability, performance, safety, low-cost repairability, etc. pose a continuing challenge for MSE. Yet the play of the market is the only mechanism for coupling goals and materials, and as we have pointed out above, it functions far less directly than in areas where the purchaser has a very direct role in the specifications (defense, space etc.). One reason is that often the consumer cannot really specify what he wants, and if he does, his desires may not find a producer responding.

In consumer areas, however, one must be careful not to confuse poor manufacturing practices with unsatisfactory material properties. Not know-what is achievable at reasonable cost, the consumer has a long list of desiderata but he cannot match it with potential solutions. All he can do is test different products offered and proceed by trial and error. Consumer choice is limited by the range of choice presented to him in the market place.

Another poorly articulated goal, moving ever more forcefully onto center stage is materials substitution. Nobody and everybody has responsibility for it. The manufacturer will act on the basis of cost differentials, evaluated in terms of the firm’s profits. The consumer will act in equally narrow terms that include cost and convenience. Society’s interest that ranges from favoring materials with a longer-run supply potential to materials having less noxious environmental impact is basically an orphan, or we should say, has been until recently. In the future, one may expect greater emphasis on substitutions. These substitutions will be (a) the direct substitution of one material for another (aluminum for copper, nickel for silver, polyurethane for cork, etc.); (b) development of new ways to perform the same function (transmitting a telephone signal through transparent fibers in conjunction with light-emitting semiconductor diodes at the transmitting and semiconductor photodetector diodes at the receiving end, or substitution of integrated circuits for transistors and vacuum tubes, or development of wholly new adhesives); and (c) development of substitute technologies that could radically alter the patterns of materials demand (nuclear vs. fossil-fuel power generation, communication through solid-state electronics vs. transportation of people and goods).

Constraints of various kinds will call for much more sophisticated approaches to substitution, and MSE is bound to play a major role in this sphere.

In the balance of this chapter, we attempt to (a) specify some goals in the fields of communication networks, space, electrical power, transportation, health services, the environment, and housing, and then document their evolution by way of governmental pronouncements and actions in various contexts, and (b) illustrate how the achievement of these goals is connected with specific developments in MSE.

The sectors chosen for reviewing the connection between materials research and national goals do not exhaust all segments of economic activity; nor do they cover the broader range that forms part of the materials research priority study described in the next chapter. Specifically, the subsequent discussion omits reference to what are broadly called consumer and producer durables. The reason is simply that one cannot identify anything there that could be regarded as a “national goal” beyond such very loose matters as “competitiveness,” “least-cost production,” etc. Nevertheless, these broad areas do present many important challenges to materials technology and some of these, in the area of defense, the supply of and demand for materials, and automation of industrial processes and methods, are briefly described. This chapter concludes with an overview of goal-oriented materials research opportunities and needs, many of which apply to several economic sectors.

The approach to the identification of critical materials needs has generally been a “shredding out” of specific materials problems and tasks from the more broadly formulated goals; often referred to as the relevance-tree technique. For example, one may derive from the goal of abundant, reliable, low-cost, and environmentally acceptable electric power the route, among others, of controlled thermonuclear fusion and, by an extension of the process, the requirement of a material with specific tolerance for radiation damage.

According to Jantsch², technology transfer occurs vertically via at least eight levels. At each level, there can also be horizontal transfer. These are summarized in Tables 4.4 and 4.5 where some examples are also given. The eight levels represent progressively increasing (or decreasing) “levels of aggregation” —moving upwards in the tree involves embracing increasing breadth of techniques and technologies in order to achieve the desired social or economic objective.

Vertical transfer can be up or down. When upwards, the science and engineering can be regarded as creative in that it creates new technologies, new functions, and new opportunities for society. When downwards, the science and engineering can be regarded as responsive in that it is responding to perceived societal needs.

Jantsch labels levels 1 through 4 in Tables 4.4 and 4.5 as Development Levels, being mainly technical in nature and resulting at the 4–5 boundary in a functional technological system. Levels 5 to 8 are labelled Impact Levels, being mainly segments of society which are affected by the results of the science and engineering. MSE is clearly most immediately associated with levels 1 through 4. In its creative mode, the output of MSE is a new functional technological system. In its responsive mode, society has perceived a need for a functional technological system which MSE should help produce.

The relevance tree should also be interpreted on a suitable time scale. It takes time for progress upwards through the various levels to occur. Basic research on materials, for example, might not begin feeding information upward for 10 years or more.

As the specifics of the generally formulated or implied goals are modified, so the MSE tasks will vary. In the case of health, there seems to have taken place a shift from conquest of specific diseases or disturbances to delivery of care for large numbers. In the case of energy, we see emphasis on such items as the breeder reactor and on conversion of coal to gas or liquid form. Once these are commercially feasible, emphasis may change again, this time perhaps to such long-run concerns as minimizing the ejection of heat into the atmosphere and, therefore, to the potential of solar energy. Yet, the national goal of abundant, low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound energy is unlikely to change. Thus, what follows deals generally with goals that may be assumed to be prominent for some time but the specifics of which are subject to modification.

In the broad sense, telecommunications (TC’s) are all-pervasive. TC’s transmit information in the form of electrical signals from one place to another. The information may be speech, or numerical data, or radar signals, or television pictures, or facsimiles, or signals from sensors such as seismographs, electrocardiographs, heat, pressure- and light-sensitive devices.

TC’s impinge on virtually every aspect of life—on work, on pleasure, on health, on business and commerce, on transport, on family. Materials can be ordered by telephone, medical doctors consulted, and business carried on in a very different way from that which preceded the large use of telephony. International communications have shrunk distances, brought families closer together, allowed television viewing of events as they occur the other side of the world. The impact of television has been profound on the economy, the dissemination of news, and the social patterns of life. Similarly, the impact of computers and their interconnection through telephone and data networks is immense—an example from common experience is the vast improvement in air-travel reservation procedures and in seat assignments occasioned by the use of computers coupled to a nation-wide, and in some cases, international communications network.

TC’s are the nervous system of a nation. They are vital for its everyday activity, as has been recognized by Japan which has afforded them top priority in its development plans for the 1970’s. TC’s, along with computers, have had an impact on man’s information-handling tasks and capacities which compares with the impact that the steam engine and other motive powers had on man’s physical tasks and capacities.

The opening paragraph of the final report of the President’s Task Force on Communications Policy (Rostow Report, August 14, 1967) aptly states this theme: “Few technological changes have had so profound an effect on the human condition as the development of telecommunications. Man today lives in a maze of electronic signals; it is certain that their influence on the quality of his environment will be even more important in the future than is the case today.”

The same report goes on to state: “The essential goal of national policy, in our view, is an optimal rate of improvement in our telecommunications capability, based on progress in science, technology, and the arts of management, and addressed to the growing needs of its users.” This is a rather vague definition as definitions of national goals go, but it is indicative of a growing awareness in the late 1960’s that the nation should develop a coherent policy for the telecommunications field.

One of the reasons why national goals for telecommunications have seemed less urgent than they might have been lies with the structure of the nation’s telecommunications network and the way it is managed. The U.S. is the only country in which the operation of the telecommunications network is not the direct responsibility of the government. Instead, it has been left to private enterprise to develop in response to customers’ needs, although under the close and continuous monitoring and regulation provided by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and various other state and local utility commissions. In many ways it can be said that the U.S. has found an ingenious compromise between the extremes of outright nationalized industry and private monopoly. The FCC is the instrument designated by Congress to exercise regulatory powers over communications carriers. As such it is the prime agency for formulating and implementing policy for TC.

The major portion of the nation’s TC network is operated by the Bell System which has, as its corporate policy, enunciated by A.T. and T. President W.S.Gifford in 1929, “the best possible telephone service at the lowest cost consistent with financial safety.” In view of the position of the Bell System, it might not be inappropriate for us to regard this objective as in lieu of a national policy statement concerning the TC network.

In recent years, however, the FCC has followed a course designed to temper the dominant position in TC held by the Bell System. Though the TC network is often described as a “natural monopoly,” the FCC is seeking ways to open it up to a greater number of private companies to share in providing the increasing scope and diversity of communications equipment and sources. The resulting arguments over whether the public interest is really best served by a fragmented network and industry or a unified one are outside the scope of this present study.

The issue of the Bell System is, however, an especially poignant one for the modern field of MSE. It can be fairly stated that the field got a big impetus with the discovery of the transistor at Bell Telephone Laboratories

in 1947. In retrospect, it can be seen that the solid-state electronics industry which followed is what is responsible for the great diversity of communications equipment and the highly increased competition the Bell System now faces.

TC systems are made up of three principal classes of equipment: terminal (both for sending and receiving), switching, and transmission. Some of the more common types of equipment that are used in these systems are listed in Table 4.6.

There are over 120 million telephones in the US today, close to two million non-broadcast stations authorized, and over 25,000 broadcast services. A recent study³ projected the number of telephones for 1985 as 220 million, plus 3 million picturephones (about two-thirds of which will be used mostly for data or information services), and about 8 million data terminals connected to public and other networks.

TC’s are a major factor in the national economy. According to Clay T. Whitehead, Director, Office of Telecommunications Policy,⁴ during the past 20 years the communications industries’ contribution to the national economy increased by over 500%, a growth rate almost double that of the economy as a whole and substantially in excess of the rates of such important segments as transportation and trade. The Bell System alone has been responsible for a major share of the nation’s business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 10 billion dollars in 1970 (about 12% of the nation’s total) compared with approximately 6 billion dollars for transportation and 2 billion dollars for mining, and it employs about 1,000,000 people.

In addition to these indirect effects of communications on the economy, the direct impact is substantial by virtue of the size of the industry. The Bell System alone, for example, accounts for 15% of the domestic copper consumption and is the largest single consumer of polyethylene.

TC’s have become one of the most sophisticated forms of high technology, although a person using a telephone may be less conscious of the hardward than when he uses a car or an aeroplane. But advances in TC technology more often than not result from, or depend strongly upon, advances in materials technology. Some examples will help illustrate the point:

The first successful transatlantic telegraph cable (1866) rested on the solution of the hitherto unknown problems of making, laying, and splicing cables that would be sufficiently robust and durable in the ocean environment.

Transcontinental telephone service opened (1915) only after ways had been found to build repeater amplifiers in order that intelligible voice communication could be carried this great distance. These, in turn, required the development of both high current-density oxide cathodes to replace the inadequate metal filaments of early vacuum tubes and a new magnetic material, permalloy, for the loading and inductance coils.

Radio relay systems in telephone networks made their appearance after World War II. The successful design of special high frequency tubes essential for this system was only made possible through the development of improved ceramic insulators (steatite) which had low loss at high frequencies and high temperatures—a development which required special attention to material purity and reproducibility of processing cycles to achieve the necessary control of microstructures.

But it was the discovery of the transistor at Bell Labs in 1947 that really opened the era in which materials technology became inextricably interwoven with advances in TC technology. Practical tansistors called for hitherto unheard of achievements in material (germanium and silicon) purity and perfection—landmark feats were the invention of zone refining and techniques for crystal growing. Since then, a steady stream of advances in solid-state electronic-materials technology (controlled alloying, diffusion, epitaxial growth, oxide masking, thermocompression bonding, etc.) has kept expanding the capability and capacity of electronic components and TC’s. The center of the stage is held at present by the integrated circuit (IC), a supreme achievement of MSE in which physics, chemistry, and metallurgy have been combined with electronic design and engineering to produce, via a procedure which involves hundreds of carefully controlled materials-processing steps, a complex functional piece of material—a material which, when it is energized, performs desired electronic functions such as amplification, memory, logic, calculation, etc., with a long-term reliability that would be virtually impossible using earlier discrete component technologies.

But the IC is not-the end of the long series of innovations that can be traced to the transistor discovery. Semiconductor technology stirred intensive R&D in other areas of solid-state science, and in 1958 there occurred another discovery, or invention, that is likely to be of enormous importance to TC’s in the future, the laser. Because their operating frequencies (optical) are so much higher than radio and microwave frequencies, lasers offer the prospect of the vastly greater numbers of communication channels that may be needed in the future as demand for communications continues to increase. The laser has, in turn, stimulated materials research aimed at a whole new family of optical devices—oscillators, amplifiers, modulators, memories, holography, photochromicity, visual display devices, deflectors, etc. Optical transmission lines based on ultra-pure glass fibers and integrated optical circuits are currently receiving heavy emphasis in order to complete the arsenal of components for a complete optical TC technology to supplement existing microwave and older technologies where traffic demands are sufficiently great.

Another, rather different measure of the interplay between materials

technology and TC’s is provided by the familiar telephone handset itself. It utilizes 42 of the 92 elements provided by nature (See Table 4.7); it contains among other things, 35 types of metals and alloys, 14 types of plastic, 12 varieties of adhesives, and 20 different semiconductor devices.

The increasing demand for TC’s can only be met by continuous heavy investment in R&D aimed at finding new and better devices, improved switching and transmission methods, and better materials. The communication system to support the high volume of communications projected earlier will undoubtedly be materials-based; whether the transmission is by wire, radio, coaxial cable, microwave relay or satellite, by waveguide operating at millimeter wave frequency or by glass fibers using laser sources and various optical circuit devices based upon new materials discoveries; whether the switching is by electromagnetic relays, ferreeds, vacuum tubes, transistors, or opto-electronic devices; or whether the information storage is by magnetized wires or tapes, ferrite cores, integrated circuits, holography or photochromicity. (It would be physically impossible to meet today’s demands with yesterday’s relays and wire-based technology—the materials and power requirements alone would be prohibitive.) Present TC technology, now based very much on microwave frequencies and solid-state devices such as integrated circuits, may well have to be extended to optical frequencies in order to keep up with future requirements.

A feature of telephone-network planning is the systems approach in which new techniques have to be added to, or adapted to, existing networks. It would be far too costly to rebuild the whole network each time a new TC technology comes along. This implies, in turn, that all the devices and components in the network must be operationally compatible with one another, and must be chosen so as to optimize the overall performance of the network.

Whatever the technology, because of the vast amount of capital equipment needed nationwide, durability of the hardware and the reliability of its performance must be of the very highest standards.

All the above factors combine to place real pressures on MSE. In the past, these pressures have been repeatedly met through developments in materials and device technology. Many of these achievements, some examples of which are given in Tables 4.8 and 4.9, have gone on to have very significant impact in areas outside TC’s as well.

Playing such a vital role in the nation’s economy and welfare, yet tending by its very nature to be a monopoly (as with utilities, one does not have a choice between two separate telephone systems), the communications field is closely regulated by the government, principally through the Federal Communications Commission.

Some major events in the evolution of the federal government’s involvement with communications are as follows:

The above partial list of public indicators of shifting emphasis in the general TC sphere gives some hint of the current trends: (a) the increasing diversity and complexity of TC—voice and data communication; satellites versus terrestial and submarine facilities, and (b) the growing fragmentation of the TC business, with increasing numbers of companies offering to provide pieces of the action. It seems that when the increasing complexity of TC’s calls more than ever for a systems approach and the economies of scale to achieve maximum cost-effectiveness (optimum combination from the customer’s viewpoint of quality of service versus cost). It remains to be seen whether the TC sector can continue to be innovative and efficient under the increasing constraints.

The full impact of telephone networks and computers on our pattern of living is still to be felt. Shopping, automatic billing, credit transactions, up-to-date information on sports events or on business, the storage and editing of written texts, translation of letters from or to a foreign language, all can be done by TC’s.

A recent study⁵ projected the technical evolution of the telephone plant, with widespread installation of such advances as time-division switching, stored-program electronic control, and data-link type signalling channels. Some of the conclusions are given in the following paragraph and Table 4.10.

There is no sign of a slackening demand by society for increased TC capacity, versatility, and reliability. Technologically, these demands translate into needs for communication at higher than ever frequencies and for new hardward inherently more reliable than existing devices. And these demands must be met at prices consumers are willing to pay.

For the foreseeable future, hopes for satisfying these demands are pinned on the continuing development of integrated circuits (inherently far more reliable and versatile than older vacuum-tube technologies), and the development of drastically cheaper long-distance broad-band microwave (particularly beyond 15 GHz), including satellites and waveguides, and optical communication technologies. In parallel with these developments of broad-band transmission capabilities, new switching approaches will be evolved to take advantage of the memory and logic capabilities of integrated circuits, magnetic bubble, charge-coupled devices, and minicomputers to perform message switching with addressed blocks of digitized information. New customer services will call for developments of inexpensive, reliable, visual displays and data terminals (replacing the more cumbersom cathode-ray tube and teletypewriter, respectively). Visual displays capable of capturing and storing a full picture frame for later viewing will be needed as well as cheap means for recording

whole video programs. Mobile telephone service is also expected to grow.

These demands for new and improved TC technologies all translate into demands for new and improved solid-state devices and materials. Integrated circuit technology has to be developed further, particularly by reductions in dimensions and by better material composition and microstructural control. Failure mechanisms in all manner of devices under environmental-use conditions have to be elucidated and dealt with. A whole optical communication technology has yet to be developed—the present battery of lasers, modulators, detectors, and so on, impressive as they are individually, have not yet been worked up into an efficient, functioning communication system. Transmission media, particularly optical fibers, have yet to be proven in the field. New terminal-equipment devices, particularly solid-state display devices, are needed. These may be based on liquid crystals, on electroluminescent diodes for alpha-numerics, on bubble domain or charge-coupled devices. Similarly, solid-state cameras are needed—the charge-coupled devices look particularly intriguing for this. To meet all these demands for new devices, new materials will often have to be discovered or developed but perhaps the main emphasis in materials technology will be on processing—improving the ability to control composition and structure, and thereby to build in reliability.

It is hard to visualize the impact that future TC technologies will have on society and the way of life. But imagine what the way of life would be today without the telephone, if every message and discussion now carried on by telephone had to be conducted by mail service. In the future, videotransmission and picturephone terminals, for example, may have a similarly profound effect on society. Communication may become, increasingly, an alternative to travel. Many may even stay at home and communicate to work. The corresponding relevance of materials R&D is illustrated in Figure 4.1.

“Now is the time to take longer strides—time for a great new American enterprise—time for this Nation to take a clearly leading role in space achievement which in many ways may hold the key to our future on earth.”

John F.Kennedy

State of the Union Address

May, 1961

The space effort of the U.S. had a modest beginning with the work of Robert H.Goddard (1882–1945) who carried on aerospace research involving rockets and balloons prior to World War II. Following the war, the U.S. obtained additional rocket and missile guidance expertise when the German

rocket pioneer, Wernher Von Braun, and his associates were moved by the army to Redstone Arsenal at Huntsville, Alabama where they continued their pioneering aerospace research and development activities. The Soviet Union’s success in orbiting the world’s first satellite in 1957 triggered a surge of public interest and competitive spirit in the aerospace field. This public interest resulted in a series of aerospace projects including Vanguard, Pioneer, and Explorer which were motivated partly by a national desire to demonstrate that this country could match Soviet exploits. Continued public interest in the “race-for-space” with the Soviets was elevated by President Kennedy in 1961 to a national goal of sending men to the moon and return, within the following ten years.

In July of 1958, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was created to conduct this country’s peaceful aeronautics and space programs in accordance with broad national goals laid down by the U.S. Congress. The original Space Act stated, “The Congress hereby declares that it is the policy of the United States that activities in space should be devoted to peaceful purposes for the benefit of all mankind.” These activities include such goals as: “The expansion of human knowledge”; “long-range studies of the potential benefits to be gained and the problems involved in the utilization of aeronautical and space activities for peaceful and scientific purposes”; and “the most effective utilization of the scientific and engineering resources of the United States.”⁶

During the 1960’s there was assembled, under the leadership of NASA, a very large mission-oriented scientific and technological team, perhaps the largest ever put together: at its peak in 1966, over 400,000 persons were engaged in the space program in government, universities, and industry. They made rapid progress in science and engineering; they devised management systems to handle extremely complex and interrelated problems and programs; and they forced development of newer and faster computers to aid them in their work. This effort required the development of systems which represented a new level of reliability and which worked effectively under severe or difficult operational conditions. Behind these new system developments were many technological advances in the form of (a) new materials with a level and uniformity of properties previously considered impractical to achieve, and (b) new processes and fabrication techniques which worked faster, more reliably, and with greater precision. In fact, the lunar landing timetable necessitated compressing into one decade technological advances that might normally have taken several.

During the 1960’s, the public enthusiastically supported the lunar landing goal; but with the objective achieved in 1969, public backing for continued scientific missions to the moon began to wane, perhaps largely because other national issues such as the Viet Nam war, inflation, quality of life and environment, health, education, and urbanization claimed the increased attention of the nation.

Funding of space activities has been greatly reduced since its peak in 1966, as is indicated in Table 4.11, from a high of 4.4 percent of the total federal budget outlays in FY 1966 to about 1.4 percent in FY 1972. This drop has been due to general budgetary considerations as well as to the fact that there does not now exist a widely-supported national goal in the aerospace field that compares with the well-defined, single objective of the Apollo manned space-flight program.

Projected space programs of the U.S. will be more limited in scope and in cost than Apollo. The preeminence of the Apollo program in the 1960’s and the trend to near-earth programs in the 1970’s is indicated in Figure 4.2. Specifically, major emphasis will be on manned earth-orbital flights, space science and applications R&D activities. The manned space-flight missions will emphasize both the Skylab and Space Shuttle.

The major focus of the orbital-workshop Skylab program will be on (a) studies of the sun, (b) space applications which include surveying earth resources and environmental interactions, (c) the use of the space environment for special processes, and (d) the effects of long-duration space flight on man. The Space Shuttle is regarded as a key element for future space operations in earth orbit. The earth-to-orbit shuttle provides a reusable vehicle for placement, retrieval, and servicing of satellites; short-duration manned and unmanned missions; and delivery of propulsive stages and payloads for high-energy missions. It provides savings in the cost of payloads because of the ability to repair and reuse payloads and because of the relaxation of the stringent weight, size and reliability requirements currently imposed on payload designers.

The space-science programs reflect emphasis on exploration of the earth’s environment, the solar systems, and the universe through manned spacecraft and related ground-based observations. Typical of the explorer spacecraft in this mission ar the Orbiting Solar Observatory and the High Energy Astronomical Observatory. The latter spacecraft is designed to identify and observe gamma, cosmic and x-ray sources. Both programs involve international cooperation.

Planetary exploration is also emphasized in the space-science programs. Included are (a) the Mariner missions to Venus and Mercury, (b) the Pioneer missions to explore beyond the orbit of Mars, through the asteroid belt and into the vicinity of Jupiter, and (c) the Viking Mars orbiter and lander. Planning is also underway for Mariner-class spacecraft missions to Jupiter and Saturn.

Applications programs will emphasize the continued expansion of the use of near-earth satellites for meteorology, communications, navigation, geodesy, and earth-resources surveys.

A major demonstration of the beneficial uses of space could revive public support for the space program. In particular, the new technology being developed in this program can potentially provide real and lasting solutions to some of man’s social problems. Specific examples include radioactive waste disposal and low-cost electric power through solar-energy conversion.

In general, the achievements in space have not depended upon the use of exotic new materials. Instead, a highly developed and sophisticated systems-engineering approach has been employed in which materials and process capabilities have been pushed to their limits. There are several reasons for this. First, space flights are expensive and require a high degree of reliability for even minimum cost-effectiveness. Thus, it has been necessary and prudent to use materials which were thoroughly tested and characterized. Also, the regard for safety in manned space flights has dictated the need for redundancy wherever possible together with liberal margins-of-safety in design. Specifically then, emphasis has been on materials engineering of a high degree of sophistication rather than on new materials synthesis.

On the other hand, new adaptations of materials already developed exemplify innovative thinking as much as do new syntheses. As an example, the early use of heavy copper heat sinks for re-entry nose cones was a logical and predictable choice at the time, but the succeeding generation of re-entry thermal-protection materials (phenolic-nylon and phenolic-glass) represented a completely different approach. Few individuals involved in polymer development in the early days of the space program would have predicted that these materials with their relatively limited temperature capabilities could be used to protect man and equipment from the severe heat and structural loading environments of entry from outer space.

Similarly, materials such as thermal-control coatings, lubricants, optical materials, adhesives, seals, organic and inorganic structural materials and solar-cell covers have been developed, modified, and/or tailored for the space program. It is interesting that some of these materials were exposed to more severe environments during prelaunch testing than during actual flight. Also, many of the early fears which plagued designers did not materialize. For example, cold-welding in space did not occur nearly as frequently as was expected simply because the tenacious surface gas and oxide films carried along from earth were extremely difficult to remove. That is, exposure of a material to a vacuum environment of less than 10^–10 torr does not mean that its surfaces are automatically cleaned.

Evidence that advances in materials, as well as in vehicle design, have been made at a steady pace through the years is attested to by the longer operating lives of spacecraft. Rittenhouse⁷ made an analysis, covering the launch period from January 1958 to January 1967, of the length of time that some (81) of the U.S. unclassified scientific, weather, and navigational spacecraft have transmitted useful data. Their lives were plotted against the Year of the Space Age, arbitrarily assuming that 1958 was Year 1. It was found that the 90 percent confidence estimate for the lifetime of spacecraft increased from about 1/2 year in 1960 (Year 3) to 2 years in 1966 (Year 9). Extrapolation of Rittenhouse’s data would indicate a 90 percent confidence lifetime of more than 3 years by 1975 (Year 18).

Many of the products, materials, and new fabrication techniques developed for the space program are currently being adopted as new or improved products or processes for home and industry. It is difficult, however, to determine quantitatively the extent to which space-inspired technology is responsible for such developments. This situation results from the fact that the reduction of technological advances to civilian practice is time-consuming and the aerospace industry is only one of a number of sources of new technological knowledge.

The general conclusions to be drawn from a review of the space-technology-stimulated developments involving materials and processes are: (a) the NASA contributions are many, both direct and indirect, and varied; (b) the major effect of the NASA contribution has been to cause the technological advancement to occur at an earlier date than it would have otherwise; and (c) the NASA contributions took place at all levels of technology, including step-changes, incremental advances, and consolidations. From these conclusions, it is apparent that one of the space program’s roles in advancing materials and processes technology has been to create a demand for the technology to fill. By creating this demand and, in some instances, by carrying out the appropriate development efforts, NASA further advanced the technology in the field, resulting in new products and processes.

The on-going space program of the U.S. involves three general areas, namely, manned space flight, space science and space applications. Figure 4.3 is a partial relevance tree which helps show the connections between materials and process developments and the goals of this overall space effort.

Some requirements in common with the above three space areas indicate the need for: (a) ongoing research in the laser field if the potential of lasers is to be realized for space communications, power transmission, conversion, and propulsion; (b) materials for use in improved sensing devices and instrumentation for all aspects of the space program [High reliability sensors for earth-orbital spacecraft in particular offer the advantages of (i) rapidity and continuity of observation, (ii) greater freedom from weather disturbances, (iii) large-area views for regional synthesis, (iv) reduced data-acquisition times, (v) reduced costs, and (vi) higher quality data.]; and, (c) materials with long-life and extreme service capability for advanced batteries and power-generation systems, including thermionic, nuclear, isotope, and MHD.

The space-shuttle payload capability, and hence the payload cost, is very sensitive to the weights of the orbiter and booster thermal-protection systems (TPS) and structures. High insulative efficiency, rigidized ceramic-fiber insulations protected with a ceramic coating are currently the leading candidates for the TPS because of their (a) simplicity, (b) low density, (c) capability for repeatedly surviving the maximum expected surface temperatures, and (d) reserve margin. However, other materials such as superalloys, coated refractory metals, ablators, and carbon-carbon materials are being carried as backup materials in case unexpected difficulties should develop with the leading candidates.

Advanced composites also offer the potential for significant weight reduction in the structure of the shuttle vehicles. To achieve the required level of confidence for their use, technological advances are needed in the design of structures to fully exploit their unique properties and in the development of methods for accelerated and proof-testing under simulated heating conditions, chemical environments, and foreign object damage.

A different kind of opportunity for materials research, development and fabrication lies not in the need for, and stimulation of, new or improved materials for the spacecraft, but in the use of the space environment itself for processing the materials, namely, under high-vacuum and low-gravity conditions. Recent analysis⁸ suggests that technical benefits may result from preparing some materials and products in space. The two classes of materials which appear closest to satisfying the technical and economic constraints at this time are:

It has been estimated that 30 to 50 space shuttle payloads might be generated from these product areas by the year 2000 AD. The total value of the payload could range as high as $1.5 billion.

A major role of the space program in materials R&D has been one of stimulation. The program creates a need which is filled directly by industry or with the direct or indirect support of NASA. In general, most of these developments have been only modifications or extensions of existing technology, and the need simply stimulated or expedited the development of the material, process, or product. However, the developments and innovations have been unique because of the high level and uniformity of properties achieved as well as their characteristic high degree of reliability and reproducibility.

The space efforts of the U.S. will continue to emphasize reliability and long life, and improvement in performance capability. Specific short-range needs can be identified such as the development and application of thermal-protection systems and structures in the shuttle spacecraft. Longer-range requirements include the need for a wide range of new sensor materials,

materials for laser-power transmission and communication and for space-power systems.

A unique feature of the continuing space program is the potential for new and improved materials through processing under space conditions (vacuum and low-gravity forces). In fact, space processing and the space-shuttle mission may have a symbiotic relationship. That is, low cost per pound of payload capability is mandatory for the exploitation of space processing, and space processing has the potential for being the major space activity which can utilize the large number of flights required to maintain low payload costs.

The role of MSE in support of military institutions has changed less over the past two decades than has the concept of the use of military force. In general, materials are the underpinning of all military hardware. Their performance has much to do with the effectiveness, cost, and durability of weapons, communications, vehicles, and logistic support. To the extent that military force itself has social utility, the scientific and technological development of properties and processing methods for materials is of definite national importance.

In World War I, technology was on the side of the blockaded Central Powers, but their resources were ultimately overtaxed, while the Allies had access by sea to the world’s minerals and agriculture. Superior German skills in synthetic nitrates, chemicals, and metallurgy prolonged the War but could not decide it.

In World War II, the scope of conflict was greater, and Germany was better prepared for a protracted struggle. Conversely, the Allied Powers found their trade lanes more disrupted by submarine warfare, and their domestic economies constricted by the logistic requirements of global war. Materials supply became a major problem. Technology was called on not only for materials useful in new kinds of weaponry but also to develop substitute materials to supplement stocks of short commodities. After that War, during the period 1945–1950, a major U.S. program was the building of a national stockpile of strategic and critical materials. The goals of this program were determined largely by the experiences with specific shortages in World War II. The assumption was made that the pattern of general war followed in 1914–1918 and 1939–1945 would continue, despite the emergence of nuclear weapons in the closing days of the second great conflict.

After 1950, the military requirements for materials presented no serious problems in supply. However, two new sets of materials problems did arise: (a) development of an array of materials with special properties to meet the extreme requirements of the new “strategic weaponry” in the nuclear missile age; and (b) development of flexible patterns of rugged and durable weaponry useful under conditions of informal wars.

Between 1950 and 1970, the major emphasis of military R&D in hardware was in the first category. A long list of abortive development projects were undertaken: Navaho, aircraft nuclear propulsion (ANP), the B-38, Skybolt, Dynasoar, nuclear powered rocketry, mobile nuclear reactors, the B-70

chemical bomber, and many other lesser projects. Nevertheless, some solid successes were achieved, notably with Polaris, Minuteman, and the Nike series.

Research and development of new materials and new processes accompanied both successful and unsuccessful projects, as well as in unrelated materials R&D to advance the state of the art generally. The federal investment in the high-technology materials and processes associated with advanced military systems has, indeed, produced a tremendous increase in these specialized knowledges and skills. Their use in commercial or other civil products tends to be limited by cost, by their high specialization, by security classification, and by the variety of obstacles to technology transfer. (It appears to be easier for this transfer to take place internationally than nationally; thus, while large sums were invested in the development of a U.S. titanium industry, the Japanese now surpass the U.S. in the production of quality titanium.) Nevertheless, many advances in MSE sought for military purposes have found use in commercial products: refractory metals, concentrated foods, arctic clothing, Pyroceram, high-temperature plastics, high-strength fibers for composites, and jet fuel are examples.

Experience since 1950 has tended to confirm the incorrectness of the assumption that future wars would be general and unlimited, following the pattern of World War II. Only with the greatest reluctance would one nuclear power challenge another to such mortal combat. The capability to inflict destruction has become intolerably great and the capacity to defend against it has diminished to the point of futility. The increase by orders of magnitude of nuclear weapons was accomplished by the development of nuclear fusion. The delivery systems became longer in range, faster in reentry, more accurate in guidance, and much more difficult to defend against.

Faced with the alternative of compelling all nations large and small to develop their own nuclear arms, the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. tacitly agreed to forego the use of these weapons to enforce their respective diplomatic postures.

Meanwhile, under the “nuclear umbrella,” a variety of smaller wars and informal guerrilla actions occurred. The U.S. became involved in a number of these and a highly interested observer of others.

The unsatisfactory and inconclusive nature of both the Korean War and the Vietnamese conflict, and the generally adverse political reaction to U.S. participation in these hostilities, suggest that conflicts of these types, like general war, have become high-risk enterprises with little advantage. The question is accordingly raised as to precisely what the future role will be of the institution of war, and of the U.S. military establishment. Only the future can disclose whether rejection of limited war will eventually force events toward general war, or whether some more acceptable alternative than war itself can be developed to serve the function historically provided by war.

The role of national military force has undergone more changes during the middle years of the 20th century than in all previous history. A virtual breakdown has occurred in the social institution of war. In the Napoleonic Wars and through the American Civil War, manpower mobilization was the crucial factor. By World War I, the mobilization of industry joined manpower as crucial. World War II saw weapons science and technology emerge as more than co-equal with manpower and industry. But the mobilization of science and

technology for military purposes turned out to be irreversible. From 1950 on, the purposes and limitations of war itself were increasingly shaped by technology.

The social function of war is to assign a cost to intransigence—to the refusal to seek and find accommodation of international disputes through diplomacy. From this function, the role of diplomacy historically related to military force; the greater the force behind the diplomat the harder the bargain he could drive. The relation of military force to diplomacy has today become decidedly equivocal.

In addition, the manifestation of military force was historically necessary to establish its credibility. By “showing the flag” and by military demonstrations of force and readiness to apply it, nations contributed to the bargaining power of their diplomats. The manifestations also took the form of military presence in unstable areas, in small occupations, and in arms races of various kinds—as in the design of a military rifle, the tonnage of naval vessels, the “weight of metal” such vessels could discharge, or numbers of combat aircraft deployed or deployable.

Since 1950, the advent of nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles has reduced the concept of arms races to an absurdity. The ability to destroy an adversary has advanced so much faster than has the ability to defend national territory that the national goal stated in the Preamble to the U.S. Constitution—to “preserve the common defense” —seems totally out of reach.

Establishment of the nuclear umbrella—the deterrent force—may eliminate the prospect of general war by making the cost of intransigence prohibitive. Distaste for the partial, inconclusive, protracted, and costly nature of limited wars renders our democratic society in the U.S. unready to respond to less than total challenges in the future.

As long as the nuclear umbrella remains credible and as long as potential rivals of the U.S. are willing to forego covert incursions into the U.S. sphere of concern, this status quo may remain acceptable. But what happens if other nations seek to take advantage of the U.S. preference for this peaceful status quo? At what point will the climate of public opinion change? What military actions will future U.S. leaders find necessary? What military equipment will be appropriate for such a response? And what materials will be needed for such equipment?

In devising a materials science and engineering strategy for military requirements of the future, a number of constraints apply. For example:

• There is the prospect of progressively more limited military budgets;

• There is the prospect of limited willingness of military leaders to divert dollars from manpower to hardware, and from hardware to the development of technology of utility;

• There is the indeterminacy as to the hardware requirements of the future for military purposes;

• There is the long time span for development of new materials extending from their first production in the laboratory to their actual use in military design; there is often a poor coupling of research to development; of R&D to design, and of advanced design to standardization and quality control;

• There is the diffused nature of personnel engaged in MSE, and the

tendency of dollars for their support to fluctuate from year to year;

• And finally, there is the necessity for military projects and systems to achieve a higher ratio of successes to failures, bearing in mind that materials performance is a foremost limitation, and that materials need to be ready when a military design concept is ready for decision.

In summary, military materials science and engineering needs to do a better job with less resources, to plan more carefully, to identify future needs, and to work patiently and systematically to meet them; it has to improve the assurance of reliable performance; to related more closely to design engineers, and generally to develop a posture of flexibility to meet many kinds of unforeseen problems quickly and competently with little hope of reward or even official support.

Then what are the options? It would seem necessary to raise the technological level in non-military areas of technology. For more than two decades, the U.S.S.R. has been doing this, as for example by designing agricultural trucks and heavy harvesting equipment along military lines. It would seem necessary to use greater selectivity in undertaking development projects, not being content with doing things because they can be done, but rather choosing among alternatives on the basis of carefully thought-out criteria of probable usefulness. It would seem necessary to steer a careful course between a low-risk, low-payoff strategy of incremental improvement and a high-risk, high-payoff strategy of major advance. A similar trade-off is necessary in the institutions of MSE: between the large, bureaucratized institution with high overhead, loose supervision, and low rate of productivity and creativity, and the contrasting small facility with a “subcritical mass” level of effort. Another trade-off must be found between stop-and-go programs, with shifting goals, fluctuating support, and high turnover, as against persistent plodding on unrewarding tasks. It is necessary to develop ways of economizing on the “second half syndrome” —the well-known phenomenon that 90 percent of the research is accomplished in the first half of the project time.

How many elaborate programs of materials R&D are addressed to improving the performance of materials used in items of military hardware that are soon to be phased out? If we recognize that the time required to perfect a new material in the laboratory is indeterminate but considerable, and winning acceptance for it thereafter can require a decade or two, are we in effect flogging dead horses? In the design of military programs of materials R&D, the time-phasing of military hardware systems is a key factor, and in the time-phasing of military hardware the future military posture and international relations of the U.S. are key factors.

There is no question about the ability of American scientists and technologists to come up with improvements in the materials used in military hardware. But the future prospect is one of curtailed budgets for military R&D. The design of the entire MSE program of the Department of Defense should reflect this reality. Establishment of R&D priorities is necessary. In addition, some kinds of research are clearly appropriate for both military and civilian uses. If budget emphasis is to shift to the latter, it is only reasonable to shift the supproting R&D as well. Then, too, if materials R&D is to be a shared enterprise, care should be taken to provide an effective arrangement by which to communicate and share the results of the shared R&D.

Over the past decade, an outstanding job has been done by the Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering in coordinating the design of programs of the military departments in materials science and engineering. Tasks have been systematically identified in relation to present and prospective military hardware in support of present missions. An evolution of the McNamara era in the Department was the concept that tasks should be budgeted by mission. As originally conceived, this concept called for the development on paper of alternative hardware concepts, and choices would then be made among these, mission by mission. However, by now the hardware decisions and missions seem to have stabilized and materials tasks are rather reliably identifiable. It is less clear, however, that the kinds of hardware related to military missions are as stable as this sequence implies, for the future. To translate a strategic concept of the Joint Chiefs of Staff into weaponry requirements is almost an impossible task because the concept is itself inaccessible to those who need to make the inferences about weaponry. The translation of weaponry requirements into feasible design concepts again takes years. And only then can design engineers begin to think in terms of materials of construction.

Today, because of the severe political penalties of design failure and cost overruns, the pressure on design engineers is heavy to minimize engineering risk. Materials are selected on the basis of reliability, in preference to their potential for advanced performance. Thus, even if military materials research programs are successful in relating their efforts to current hardware, the prospect is slim that new candidate materials will win consideration in time to be put into service.

There is no reason to suppose that the fall-out from civilian MSE will be of less value to the military services than has been the fall-out from military MSE for civilian uses. Glass-plastic composites may have been developed originally for refrigerators, but were found to be good applications in nose cones, while Pyroceram was developed originally for nose cones and was found excellent for coffee pots. The ultimate goal in military materials R&D is to have in being a wide array of well-characterized materials with established production methods and fabricated by established processes, and providing a full assortment of properties under a wide range of environments at a reasonable dollar cost. It is expected that vigorous civilian-oriented R&D will contribute significantly to this goal. One remembers that the first alloy used in jet engine turbine buckets in the U.S. was Vita-lium, a dental alloy.

In summary, the goals of military MSE require a closer surveillance of what is taking place in non-military MSE together with exchange of technical information from military sources to civilian users and from civilian sources to military users. A strengthened program of non-military MSE supported by the federal government, while not directly applicable to current military hardware, has a high probability of contributing to meet military requirements in the long-range future. It will also serve to strengthen the national economy, from which the resources are drawn to support the military posture. Strengthened management of scientific and technical information in

a two-way flow can maximize the efficiency of the interdependency between military and non-military MSE, and this flow too will strengthen the flexibility of the military posture while strengthening the civilian economy.

If one were to formulate a contemporary national goal in the electric power field, one would have to say that it is the “abundant, low-cost, reliable supply of power under conditions compatible with environmental quality standards.” Looking critically at each of the adjectives, we would conclude that “abundant” means meeting demand at prevailing rates; “low-cost” means not subject to disproportionate price increases from traditional levels; “reliable” means subject to interruptions only in major emergencies beyond the supplier’s control; and the reference to “environmental compatibility” means complying with environmental controls and policies as spelled out at different governmental levels.

While not overly specific, such a goal represents a far more precise formulation than has prevailed in the past. Indeed, in the first thirty years or so of the electrical industry’s existence as a commercially viable segment of the U.S. economy, public policy in its regard was largely a by-product of policy directed toward navigable waters and especially the right to build dams. Even the Federal Water Power Act of 1920 (often incorrectly cited as the Federal Power Act) that set up the Federal Power Commission and gave it authority to license hydroelectric plants built on streams subject to federal jurisdiction was more concerned with comprehensive river development than with electric power as such; in fact the Commission was made up of the Secretaries of War, Interior, and Agriculture. A full-time commissioner system was not legislated until 1930 and regulation of interstate transmission and sale at wholesale not until 1935 (the latter remaining practically dormant until the early 1960’s). The intent of this type of legislation was to have natural monopolies become regulated monopolies, protect the consumer on a broader scale than local or statewide, and to protect the investor from losses through the operation of holding companies.

Stricter regulation coincided with an increased federal role in ownership. Again, though, the implicit goals were as much regional development and reduction of unemployment as provision of electricity. The Great Depression gave birth to TVA and to the rural electrification program, and established the federal government as an important supplier. At the same time, the idea of strengthening rate regulation by using costs of power emanating from publicly-owned facilities as a “yardstick” took hold. While often criticized in both concept and execution, the “yardstick” theory has persisted.

To summarize, the events of the 1930’s, traceable in several legislative actions, established a multiple role for the federal government: as a regulator of investor-owned suppliers; as a lender of low-interest capital; as builder and owner of large systems, first hydroelectric then steam; as a

marketer of wholesale power; and as owner and operator of transmission facilities.

The banner under which these developments took place carried changing inscriptions, as we have shown—protection of navigable rivers, consumer protection, investor protection, regional development, economic growth generally, aid to rural areas, and so on. To these was added in the early 1950’s the exploitation of newly discovered nuclear-fission technology for peaceful purposes, giving the federal government yet an added and highly important role: that of promoting the development, supplying, at least initially, the fuel for, and generally watching over, the application of a highly complex new power-generating source.

Yet, despite the growing public role in electricity supply, one is hard put to find any formulation of a national goal until perhaps the 1964 National Power Survey which focussed on “abundant, low-cost, reliable power supply” and the obstacles to its achievement, high among which was better coordination among the different parts of the industry, each born of and subject to a specific legislative design and propelled by a different philosophy.

Ironically, when the ink was hardly dry on the 1964 Survey, a new and powerful element had begun to make its mark on the electric power industry, e.g., effects of generation, transmission, and consumption on the environment, embracing fuel extraction and transportation, generation, both conventional and nuclear, site location, effects of water and air emissions at higher than ambient temperatures on water and air, etc., etc. Thus the barely established goal of “abundant, reliable, and low-cost” power supply was amended to include “environmentally compatible,” an addition that found legislative expression in the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 and the various amendments to the Water Quality and Clean Air Acts, some passed since, some now pending, and others still to come, including siting and probably more general land-use legislation.

Thus, for the electric power industry, the 1970’s are likely to become as fateful a decade as were the 1930’s. But in contrast to the multiplicity of motivations and objectives in the thirties, few if any directly aimed at power supply, in the public policy of the seventies one may for the first time discern a clearly articulated objective—made up, to be sure, of several strands requiring reconciliation and trade-offs among themselves but nonetheless recognizable as a national goal. That electric power had come of age in this sense was demonstrated in June 1971, when the President sent an unprecedented “Energy Message” to Congress. While defining goals more generally, as discussed above, the Message also pointed to more immediate objectives; of special interest to the electric power industry were the development of a demonstration breeder reactor, commercially viable coal gasification, and economic sulphur removal from stack gases.

Mention must be made also of the role of the judiciary in defining the scope of newly formulated goals, especially in matters of environmental compatibility. While still in flux and as yet without Supreme Court pronouncements, it is clear that the coursts have been inclined to interpret legislation with heavy stress on environmental protection.

As shown above, the electric power industry in the U.S. is an amalgam of public and private interests. It is also an industry in which there has developed an unusual degree of partnership between equipment suppliers, equipment users, and government, in moving into new areas of opportunity.

While the manufacturers of equipment are organized as normal profit-making companies operating freely in the market, the utilities are regulated monopolies, with territorially-limited franchises that require them to supply power relatively uninterruptedly in their franchised areas, at rates set by State and Federal Power Commissions as a result of hearings.

About three-fourths of electric power generated in the U.S. emanates from public utilities that are investor owned. Federal facilities contribute not quite 15 percent, state and municipal sources about 10 percent, and rural cooperatives the small balance. While investor-owned utilities thus predominate in the aggregate, it is worth noting that a federal facility—TVA— is the country’s largest utility, in terms of generating capacity, and has moved from exclusive reliance on hydropower to coal-fired steam plants and more recently to nuclear reactors.

Antagonism between the public and private segments is substantially more muted than it used to be, as they have come to share many of the problems that afflict the industry as a whole (TVA’s use of strip-mined coal and of river flow for cooling water draws as much fire from opponents as does discharge of condenser water into a river or lake or selection of a new site by Consolidated or Commonwealth Edison). In any event, the two groups cooperate in R&D, via the Electric Research Council, which in 1972 sponsored about 70 projects costing $13 million annually.

The growth of the electric industry has been rapid and unceasing, so much so that the historical annual rate of 7 percent has come to be regarded by many as something akin to a natural law. And indeed, as on examines the order books of the industry, one comes away impressed by the volume and value of new capacity waiting to be installed. In 1971, electric utilities spent nearly $15 billion for new plant and equipment, obtained from an industry that embraces hundred of suppliers but in which concentration runs high both in share of transactions and in dominating the development of design and new materials. The utility branch is furthermore important as representing one of the principal clients of the long-term capital market. It is thus pertinent to inquire into the ways in which the industry is likely to achieve the multiheaded national objective in power supply in the context of a newly critical, vocal, and effective public opinion.

Five significant changes appear to be in store for the electric power industry, all connected in some way with legislation and each having some bearing on the materials community (See Table 4.12). These lie in the fields of environmental compatibility; availability and cost of fuels; capital structure of the industry; R&D activities; and lastly, the role of overseas procurement.

A. Environmental problems are now a major concern of the electric utilities and their suppliers. They run the gamut from damage to plants, structures, to people from stack gases in fossil-fuel-burning plants, to landscape defacement in hydroplants and transmission lines, to adverse effects on aquatic ecology by condenser water discharges, and to hazards from nuclear fission. They have attracted most attention in the matter of plant siting, and in turn this has been most pronounced with regard to nuclear power plants, as might be expected given the newness of the experimental installations to plants of 1,000 MW capacity and more, and the consequent lack of operating experience.

The stringent regulation and a proliferation of public-interest suits has resulted, since early 1971, in a practical freeze of licensing of new nuclear facilities and operating restrictions on some of those already licensed. The apparent shift of concern over hazards from control of routine operations to accident prevention and thermal effects on water has not removed obstacles to licensing. If anything, it seems to have hardened the look now being taken at the depth of fundamental knowledge concerning behavior of parts and materials even in inprobable malfunction contingencies. Moreover, stringent court interpretations of AEC’s responsibilities under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 have launched the Commission, the utilities, and their consultants into searching inquiries concerning the implications of nuclear power for all conceivable impacts on the environment. Consideration is being given to “power parks” and remote locations, including offshore siting; undergrounding of distribution lines has been making rapid headway, and 15–20% of new transmission lines are also expected to be underground by the close of the decade.

More extreme measures such as proposed but defeated in “Proposition A” of the 1972 California State Primary, which would have banned construction of nuclear power plants in the next five years, may be expected to gain attention as society grapples with the problem of reconciling competing objectives. The potential contribution of MSE is discussed below.

B. Cost and availability of fuels have become matters of extreme concern. At the same time, various legislative restrictions are in the offing. California’s “Proposition 9” would have outlawed offshore oil drilling; state and now federal legislation has been aimed at restricting strip mining for coal (in the context of more radical proposals to ban it altogether); the effect of the Mine Safety Act of 1969 is expected to further increase the cost of coal; and emphasis on low sulphur content has restricted the sources of coal and raised its cost. A national concern over the long-term availability and cost of uranium fuel has given impetus to a government/utility commitment to build and operate a demonstration breeder reactor. A site has been agreed upon, funds have been pledged, and proposals from reactor builders are being evaluated in 1972.

C. The above-cited cost increases will be compounded by rising cost of construction, loss of revenue, and the added financing costs due to construction and licensing delays; higher capital costs of nuclear plants compared to fossil plants also aggravate the industry’s problem of attracting adequate capital. If for no other reason, reduced generating plant costs and higher plant efficiencies will be increasingly sought in the 1970’s, and materials advances play an important part in both of these.

D. The electric utilities have recently come under increasing

criticism for not undertaking adequate research and development. Estimates put 1971 R&D funding by utilities at about $60 million per year, or 0.25% of revenues; but in June 1971, the Electric Research Council produced a report projecting considerable increases in R&D expenditures by the “industry” (doubling over a 5-year period) defined, however, as consisting of the utilities, the electrical equipment manufacturers, and the govenrment. Increased R&D on materials is indicated, but no specific dollar amounts are proposed. As of the Fall of 1972, utilities had pledged substantial amounts to a joint R&D program, greatly exceeding those spent in past years. (Pledges in the Fall of 1972 approach $40 million for a 1973 program, and are expected to reach $75 million.)

A different approach has been proposed in the so-called “Magnusson Amendment” —an amendment suggested by Senator Magnusson to S. 1684 which calls for the imposition of a 0.15 mil per KWH tax on electric utility bills to finance R&D. It is thought that such legislation could lead to the creation of some type of “National Power Laboratory” and there is some indication that the Atomic Energy Commission, or some component thereof, would aspire to this role. In either event, it now looks as if there will be a great acceleration in R&D spending.

E. As pressures for capital-cost reduction have increased, the utilities have turned increasingly during the last decade (and especially during the last five years) to purchase of cheaper foreign-made equipment, such as Swiss and Japanese turbines, Swedish and British transformers, French and Italian circuit breakers. Foreign designs are frequently as good as U.S. designs, and they often make more economical use of materials. Protective legislation has been sought by manufacturers, and antidumping provisions have been invoked in the case of power transformers. But the best answer would lie in competitive costing, and in this materials can play an important role.

The number of technological advances for the generation, transmission, and distribution of electric power is currently very large. Table 4.13 lists many of the alternatives.

The industry has been in a period of rapid change, characterized by the emergence of the nuclear reactor as a preferred base-load generation plant, and the gas turbine for peaking loads. Increased penetration of gas turbines, especially in the form of combined cycle plants, into intermediate and baseload generation may be confidently expected. These changes place heavy demands on MSE.

The materials employed by the electric power industry are extremely diverse. Major categories are shown in Table 4.14.

In addition, the industry generates materials, of which the most abundant are fly ash and sulphur (in the form of SO₂), and the most intractable is the concentrated fission-product wastes from nuclear-fuel reprocessing.

In 1971, the electric utilities spent about $5.5 billion on fuel and about $2.2 billion on the materials content of additions to plant and equipment. Both of these figures have been increasing at about 7% per year.

Materials science and engineering related to all these materials has been undertaken primarily by suppliers to the electric utilities and by government, and to a much lesser extent by the utilities themselves or by universities and research institutes. Among organizations participating in MSE are the following:

In addition, a number of materials developments undertaken by the aircraft industry, such as nickel-base superalloys, high-strength composites, structural ceramics, and oriented eutectics are already having impact on the electric power industry, or are likely to do so in the future.

The economic feasibility of many of the newer methods or power generation will be significantly if not critically determined by materials availability and performance. These relationships are illustrated in Tables 4.15 and 4.16.

In each of these areas, there is a clear relationship between a national objective and a specific group of materials developments. This relationship is illustrated in Figure 4.4.

Demand for electrical energy will continue to grow in the U.S. and even more swiftly in those parts of the world that are in the early stages of industrialization. The generation and transmission of power can be undertaken in ways that protect the environment, but substantial innovations and expenditures will be needed. Low-sulphur fuels, increased use of cooling towers and ponds, containment and treatment methods for radioactive effluents and wastes, possibly remote or offshore siting of plants and the development

of “power parks,” underground transmission, increased attention to power systems, interconnection, and the resultant stability considerations; all are likely technological responses. All will add to costs at a time when the electric utilities will be under cost pressure from other sources: fuel costs, construction costs, and costs of money. One predictable result will be an increased premium on generating-plant efficiency which will make the development of ultrahigh-temperature gas turbines, combined cycle plants, and high-temperature reactors more desirable. Materials science and engineering has major contributions to make to these developments. At the same time, materials substitutions and advances contributing to reduced costs will be eagerly sought.

Materials research related to electric power will increase, and quite likely rapidly so in the next few years. Governmental pressures on the utilities for more R&D, the desire of U.S. equipment manufacturers to remain internationally competitive, the increased needs for environmental information and control technology will favor increased R&D expenditures. The source of these expenditures is not yet clear, but legislation and decisions by the regulatory agencies will be critical elements.

The whole electric power industry, and indeed all the energy-producing and distributing industries, are rapidly assuming a place in the forefront of public concern. A more explicit formulation of national goals in respect to electric power, and the strengthening and coordination of federal policy mechanisms concerned with promotion and regulation of electric power are one of the likely results. Materials science and engineering is destined to play an important part in the search for improved or wholly new power supply systems that satisfactorily combine the requirements of abundance, low cost, reliability, and compatibility with environmental standards.

Energy accounts for 1–2% of the added value of manufactured machines, equipment, and instruments. However, as a fraction of the value of industrial materials produced from natural materials, energy is much larger. Some illustrative data are given in Table 4.17 (the energy is a combination of heat and electricity in most cases). The implications are clear of how research on material processes aimed at increasing efficiency of energy utilization can have a significant impact on the nation’s energy consumption.

The development of commercial breeder reactors is a major task requiring many types of contributions from many specialties. One particular material development is described to illustrate the central role of MSE in this important technology.

Water-moderated uranium-dioxide-base fuel elements are used in both burner reactors and fast-neutron breeder reactors. Sintered UO₂ pellets, approximately a centimeter in diameter, enclosed in drawn zirconium tubing, having a wall thickness of approximately 0.5 millimeter, some 4m long, closed at the ends by welding, accurately spaced in bundles ranging from 10 to over 300 tubes and providing 20,000 to 100,000 rods per reactor, serve as the heat source in both pressurized-water and boiling-water reactors. These reactors are projected as likely to supply some 150,000 megawatts of electrical power⁹ in 1980 or about 25% to 30% of the estimated demand for electricity in the USA at that time. By 1990 breeder reactors are likely to be in use, employing uranium-plutonium oxides in somewhat similar fashion, encased in somewhat smaller thin-wall tubing made of alloys perhaps resembling 316 stainless steel.

For the uranium-plutonium oxides, there are many features which must be better understood such as: (a) limits of elastic and plastic deformation; (b) fracture; (c) corrosion; (d) altering system composition; (e) diffusion; and (f) crystal defects. Moreover, these phenomena are considerably modified, by and extended to less familiar situations by: (a) recoiling ions and atoms with energies up to 120 MeV; (b) accumulation of up to 20% of about 40 different fission-product atoms; and (c) temperature gradients approaching 10,000° C/cm. The objectives of tests are to determine whether elements can produce and transfer heat amounting to at least 20 Kwd/kg (kilowatt days/kg) of contained fission material averaged over the reactor core, and at rates at least 50 Kw/m averaged over their length. More generally, the aim of the development and applied research will be to find the limits on these quantities, hopefully with factors at least 5 and 2, respectively, greater than those just listed.

Thermal performance must also be known sufficiently well for design decisions. Heat production, heat flow, temperature, and temperature gradients not only provide major constraints on the technology, but also are extensive and intensive variables having to do with the state of the system and its evolution in time. Typical heat flux to the coolant has to be in the neighborhood of 100 watts per cm². Heat transferred per unit length of fuel pin is directly related to the surface and central temperatures of the pin through the integral of the thermal conductivity between these two temperatures.

Utility of uranium dioxide depends on its relatively great chemical and radiation stability rather than on its ability to transport heat. Conduction in U02 is ordinarily by phonons and the minimum thermal conductivity is slightly over 0.02 w/°C cm, corresponding to a phonon mean free path of about one lattice constant. Below 1000° C the mean free path is greater, but this is reduced by induced defects and the accumulation of fission products. Above, perhaps, 1800° C the conductivity may increase due, probably, to electronic excitation processes. Very extensive measurements of the thermal conductivity and of the thermal-conductivity integral provide a basis for design and interpretation of the physical and chemical changes in the oxide. A safe and accepted central temperature permits light water fuels to have a

thermal conductivity integral of about 50 w/cm.

Uranium nitride and carbide have much greater thermal conductivity and sufficient stability to give much larger linear ratings and therefore should be developed as fuels. Outside of some laboratory studies of chemical, physical, and radiation-induced behavior, little fuel development based on these compounds is in progress.

In addition, physical and chemical changes in the oxide fuels need to be determined, particularly as they are influenced by radiation-induced creep, swelling due to accumulation of solid fission products and growth, migration and release of fission-gas bubbles.

Finally, precise fabrication techniques, quality control and inspection procedures are required for manufactured fuel elements to meet stringent safety requirements.

Gas turbines, originally developed for high-speed aircraft, have rarely been used for continuous basis power generation. Until recently, they have been adopted by large electric utility companies for peaking power and to fill the gap caused by delayed additions of nuclear, and in some cases, conventional steam-generating plants. Seldom if ever have they utilized gas from the combustion of coal as the working medium because of the abrasive nature of the gas steam. Gas turbines, in principle, operate much like the old fashioned windmill. A high-pressure, high-temperature gas obtained from the combustion of a fuel, is first compressed and then expanded through nozzles onto the blade of a turbine. The rotating blades in turn drive against the torque exerted by the load, viz, a generator or pump, and additionally, its integral compressor.

For optimum results, the gas temperature should be as high as possible. Gas pressures (pressure ratio) should also be large. The thermal efficiencies of natural-gas-fuel turbines today are in the range of 25–30% when operated at temperature of approximately 870° C. An increase of gas temperature by 25° C will increase the efficiency by about 204%. It is predicted that if temperatures can be raised to 1100–1300° C, an overall efficiency of 40– 45% can be achieved. Gas temperatures per se are no obstacle. The inhibiting factor is the temperature capability of the turbine parts, heat exchangers, and associated apparatus. New or improved materials are the key to success in this area. Metals and/or ceramics are required which are oxidation-, impact-, and thermal-shock resistant, and which have high strength and ease of fabrication.

At present, materials under consideration for turbine applications include composites (SiC, and Al₂O₃ fibers in a metal matrix), Al₂O₃, Si₃N₄, and several carbides (TiC, NbC, SiC with metal additions). Property and performance data on these and other materials are lacking, particularly in such areas as: (a) strength, at high temperatures, (b) creep characteristics, and (c) thermal expansion. Of late, Si₃N₄ has been under intensive investigation for use in turbines. This material, as shown by current materials research, has good strength, low thermal expansion, unusual fabricability, and is moderately oxidation resistant. Further development, however, is necessary

before Si₃N₄ or other such materials can be successfully adapted to the proposed high-temperature gas turbines.

Generation of power using MHD is not a new concept and, in fact, is based on principles outlined by Faraday 100 years ago. Basically, it operates by the motion of an electrical conductor in the presence of a magnetic field, the same principle as for the conventional rotating generator. In MHD the moving conductor is a heated fluid, gas, or liquid. In its simplest form, a hot fluid conductor is passed through a channel which has a transversely oriented magnetic field. By inserting electrodes in the fluid stream, direct electric current can be generated at high voltages. The MHD generator performs in a manner similar to that of a turbogenerator. In both cases, work is extracted from a heated fluid at the expense of a pressure drop and corresponding enthalpy decrease. In open-cycle MHD, seeded gas, normally combustion gas from the burning of fossil fuels, serves as the moving conductor. The combination of seed material (i.e., K₂SO₄) and high temperatures (~200°–2400° C) usually makes the gas electrically conductive for generator operation. These extreme conditions play havoc with containment materials and the electrical characteristics of insulators and conductors. Overall, the chamber, channel, and associated parts must resist corrosion through oxidation, erosion, and alkali attack, and must withstand thermal shock as well as extreme temperatures.

Materials capable of withstanding such severe environmental conditions are few and are primarily limited to those having high melting points. Because of oxidation problems, only pure oxides, or combinations thereof, appear to be the best candidates for open cycle MHD applications Even here, a number of oxides must be eliminated from consideration because of cost and poor properties (toxicity, hydration, vaporization, etc.). At present it is generally impossible to make a wise choice of materials for many fundamental questions are unanswered. For example, current thinking envisions stabilized ZrO₂ for the electrodes; Al₂O₃, ZrO₂, and MgO refractories for the burners; coal fuel and air seeded with K₂SO₄ as the gaseous conductor. The behavior of this combination of materials at high temperatures simply cannot be predicted with our current state of knowledge. Reliable design criteria and proper materials selection can only come about through coordinated materials research and engineering in several areas, specifically: (a) phase equilibria, (b) vaporization, (c) electrical conductivity, and (d) mechanical properties.

Environmental concerns have prompted a renewed effort toward the development of low-cost, reliable, non-polluting methods of energy conversion and storage. Electrochemical devices potentially offer an opportunity to replace the internal combustion engine in automobiles and materials research in this direction has accelerated during the last decade.

Electrochemical devices are converters of chemical energy to electrical energy and are generally categorized according to the source of energy into several basic cell types: (a) fuel cells, (b) primary cells (flashlight batteries), and (c) secondary cells (storage batteries). Cell performance is rated on (a) the amount of generated power per unit device weight (specific power in watts/unit weight) and (b) capacity to store energy (specific energy in watt-hours/unit weight). Because of attempts to maximize specific power and specific energy, a large array of new materials are being investigated for application as electrodes and electrolytes in electrochemical devices.

One of the most promising electrochemical secondary cells recently developed is the sodiums-sulphur battery. In this device, liquid Na serves as the anode and liquid S (in contact with carbon felt) as the cathode. The central feature of the cell, and the primary innovation, is the solid-state electrolyte, beta alumina (~Na₂O·11Al₂O₃), whch allows unusually high transport of alkali ions. When the cell is connected to an external load, electric current is produced via diffusion of Na ions through the electrolyte according to the reactions:

Recharging of the battery is accomplished by a reverse process: Externally supplied current causes Na-ion-flow in the beta alumina electrolyte, eventual ly returning the Na and S electrodes to their original states.

Although the beta-alumina Na/S battery can be considered a significant advancement, it is not yet the answer to electric vehicle propulsion. Limiting aspects of the battery are the high-operating temperature (~300° C) and the crystallographic restriction of two-dimensional alkali diffusion. In addition, the presence of sodium in the metallic state poses a real hazard in the event of a crash. New materials must be developed to overcome these faults as well as improve cell output. Basically, the nature of the problem is crystallographic and involves the search for materials with abundant charge carriers of very high mobility in three directions. Importantly, mobility apparently is a direct consequence of positional disorder of the charge carriers. For example, the hexagonal structure of beta-alumina is made up of spinel-like blocks separated by bridging planes composed of Na, Al, and O ions. It is along these planes that Na ions have a high ionic conductance. This structure only typifies that needed for an effective solid state electrolyte. The ultimate solution (if any) probably may be found in entirely different classes of structures.

In the generation and distribution of electricity, a rough rule of thumb is that 50% of the cost goes to generation of electricity in the central plant, 40% of cost is for distribution at the local level, and 10% is

required for distribution at high-power levels. In special situations, such as large urban centers where space is at a premium, the transmission costs for high energies may go up by as much as a factor of five.

In the generation of electricity by rotating machinery, the tremendous advances in superconducting materials of the past few years may yield substantial improvements in efficiency. The limitations of efficiency in present generators is due in part to the intensity of the magnetic field which can be produced by a given volume and weight of normal electrical conductors. In turn, the volume and weight limitations come from the material strengths avaialble to support large rotating masses. Superconducting alloys have been developed which will, in suitable coil form, produce very large magnetic fields. In principle, this should provide a substantial increase in efficiency of electrical generation. In practice, however, there remain difficult and fundamental material problems to be resolved. The new alloys which will support large magnetic fields are lossy in the presence of changing fields. Present developments using superconductors in rotating machinery utilize the superconductor in a situation which minimizes its exposure to changing magnetic fields. For example, the superconductor is imbedded in a copper-nickel alloy which is deliberately made lossy so that eddy currents are increased and the superconductor is shielded from the changing magnetic field. Because of the requirement for nearly constant magnetic fields at the superconductor site, its use is limited to either the stator or rotor but not both.

Progress is being made on reducing the AC losses in the high-magnetic field-type superconductors. Considerably more work needs to be done of both a fundamental and engineering nature. An important aspect of the problem is the requirement to make large-scale machines and to run extensive high-power experiments. The practical problems involved in applying superconductivity to electrical generation do not scale in any simple way. The power companies, of course, are interested only in large-scale generators, but full-scale models are very expensive to construct and evaluate. There are difficulties in applying technology to full-scale production; this is a case in point. Certainly the entire power generating industry in the U.S. is of sufficient magnitude to warrant a considerable investment in development of more efficient generating machinery. New ways of allocating costs of development between the companies and the customers need to be explored to provide a suitable framework for exploitation of technology in this area.

In situations where high power must be transmitted underground and particularly where ground space is expensive, the superconducting cables offer an advantage. The potential savings come not from avoiding the generating cost of the heating losses in the cable but rather in the problems of dissipating the heat which is generated in confined spaces. With superconductors, there is essentially no heat generated along the cable and the added problem of providing cryogenic cooling is more than offset by the savings in avoiding heat dissipation.

This application will also require considerable materials research. Extensive use of superconductor calbes would require very large inventories of helium for the cryogenic material. For the long-range future, it would be prudent to avoid this critical material problem by developing a superconducting material which can operate at temperatures achievable by liquid hydrogen

cooling. Theoretical understanding of the relation between composition, structure, and critical temperature of superconductors is insufficient to say whether nature will allow achievement of this goal.

A practical problem in the application of superconductors to high-power transmission cables is the forming of joints in the field. Welding, with its high-temperature cycle, tends to destroy the very state of the material which was created to make it superconducting. This practical problem is likely to require an extensive research effort. Another practical problem concerns making the superconducting cables sufficiently flexible so that large rolls can be transported to the installation site, thereby minimizing the need for field joint construction.

To illustrate the role of transportation in the nation’s economy, may point to the 15% or so that consumers spend on it out of their personal consumption expenditures or to the fact that all expenditures related to transportation represent about 20% of the GNP.¹⁰ But because more than half of these expenditures are intermediate and thus hidden in the cost of the final product, or are carried under other headings (e.g. insurance companies), transportation as an industry accounts for less than 5% of aggregate national income as defined in U.S. national accounts. The 15 to 20% range thus conveys a better idea of the role of transportation.

Because we tend to talk often in terms of a “transportation crisis,” we are led to believe that transportation has been a steadily growing fraction of GNP. Actually, that fraction has remained remarkable stable: the comprehensive estimates prepared annually by the Transport Association of America show that between 1958 and 1970 the nation’s “freight bill” as a percentage of GNP has trendlessly fluctuated in the narrow range between 9.6 and 9.1%; the corresponding percentages for the nation’s “passenger bill” were 10.2 and 10.8, again without a trend. Our impressions thus are due to the fact that so many more of us meet the “transportation problem” in its most intractable forms, e.g., street and highway congestion and air pollution.

While the growth of transportation expenditures has paralleled that of the economy, its different segments have grown quite unequally. Estimates comparing the late 1950’s to the late sixties show rail expenditures advancing by only 10, marine by 64, automotive by 77, and air by 166%. None of these magnitudes begins to measure the impact that the motor vehicle alone has on the American economy, in terms of goods and services associated with it directly or indirectly. Yet, President Kennedy’s assertion in his Transportation Message of 1962 that national policy in the field of transportation was a “chaotic patchwork of inconsistent and often obsolete legislation and regulations” probably is still accurate today, despite the fact that there now exists a Department of Transportation and federal outlays have doubled in the past decade, primarily investments in capital facilities. Highway construction grants-in-aid to states account for about 60%, support for aviation 20%, rails 5%. But it would be difficult to prove that the construction of a

large interstate highway system is part of a comprehensive and internally consistent national transportation goal. Indeed, these highways have often produced grave problems for the cities onto which they unload their traffic.

Urban transportation is now dominated by the automobile, with 90% of urban travel accounted for by the private passenger car. While city streets comprise only 14% of total mileage, it is estimated they accommodate over half of the total national travel as measured in vehicle miles.

Historically, U.S. policy has sought to keep the modes of transportation separate and to afford a measure of protection to both the investor and the user from exploitation by either cutthroat competiton or unregulated monopolies. Railroads, for example, are not generally permitted to provide trucking service or own a trucking enterprise. This and other basic regulations, e.g., requiring that common carriers provide service upon demand at non-discriminatory rates, stemmed from the view that railroads constituted a monopoly and that, without regulation, monopolies tended to leave the public without protection, both as investors and as consumers. Detailed regulation was provided by the Transportation Act of 1920.

Other common carriers were similarly regulated through legislative enactments down to and including the Act of 1940. However, many exceptions in various legislative acts have sanctioned the growth of much traffic outside of the control pattern, and, of course, the private automobile, as opposed to the public carriers, was subject to no regulation whatever, while even with the emergence of competitive means of transportation, railroads remained subject to strict and often cumbersome regulation. The shift of traffic to private carriers, to pipelines, and to trucks, coupled with various types of subsidies to motor and air transportation, resulted in the gradual deterioration of both the railroads and the maritime industries. Instead of moving toward a coordinated system in which each mode was used in its most efficient way (e.g., rails for long-haul bulk movements and for short-haul, high density commuter traffic) the different branches were treated as different industries.

Yet, most recent trends both in legislation and federal spending clearly indicate a desire to establish a “balanced transportation system” and at the same time to minimize the adverse effects on the environment. (See Table 4.18.) The High Speed Ground Transportation Act of 1965 was aimed at improving intercity rail service, following President Johnson’s call in his 1965 Message for 100-mile-per-hour railroad passenger facilities between Boston and Washington. Urban transportation has been identified as a top priority area. In Fiscal Year 1971 some $400 million was obligated by the Urban Mass Transit Administration in the form of grants to municipalities for capital assistance, technical studies, demonstrations, and R&D; about $33 million of this sum was obligated on direct contracts for research, development, and evaluation. The Federal Highway Act of 1970 has established a new urban highway program with emphasis on highway-using mass transit systems. It is estimated that $17.7 billion will be spent for rapid transit systems in U.S. cities during the 1970’s.

With regard to managing noxious emissions from transportation media,

Clean Air Acts have established controls on automobile exhausts; the Airport and Airway Development Act of 1970 has set minimum standards of safety for airports; and the Federal Aviation Authority now has an Office of Environmental Quality, which concerns itself with engine-exhaust pollution, aircraft waste and smoke emissions, and aircraft noise. The concern of the public for reducing pollution and for greater safety will clearly influence the direction of future developments in the transportation industry.

It has been pointed out earlier in this chapter that one does well to think of a wide spectrum of kinds of goals as well as of a ranking. This can be illustrated particularly well in transportation. There are large, discrete tasks such as the building of urban mass-transportation systems in San Francisco, Washington, Seattle, Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, and other major cities. There are complex, open-ended programs such as the improved coordination of the modes of moving goods by land, sea, and air. There are large research, development, and engineering tasks with great social utility like the elimination of atmospheric pollution from internal combustion engines; and others of uncertain outcome or merit such as the supersonic transport or nuclear propulsion. Better transportation can be the vehicle for correcting social deficiencies; it can improve productive performance; and finally there are goals which require specific inventions—more efficient batteries, fuel cells, aircraft nose suppressors, etc.

Transportation systems consume such enormous quantities of materials— metals, concrete, plastics, etc.—that any advance in MSE is apt to affect transportation and cause shifts in relative costs. A major change in energy generation or distribution technology may also have a profound effect on transportation—through altering the possibilities for propulsion or through providing in a different way for the dissipative losses associated with friction. The greatest recent advances in moving goods and people have probably resulted from the application of solid-state devices to information and communication systems utilized in transportation-system control. At first glance this would not seem a fruitful area for MSE until we estimate some of the trade-offs, e.g., between time and fuel loss at intersections and better traffic control by means of solid-state devices and integrated circuits, which depend in a highly sophisticated way on materials; or between improved reliability through control-element redundancy and the weight and cost of the extra controls which would be required.

We shall look briefly at the important role which materials substitution has played in the development of our transportation system. An outstanding example is aluminum. Without it, large-scale air transport would not have been achieved, and conversely one might argue that without significant growth of the aircraft industry, aluminum might still be a relatively little-used

material, although by now that industry consumes only 3% of all aluminum marketed in the U.S. However, while materials developments can facilitate improvements in all systems, the major developments will be primarily limited by the absence of political or social decisions rather than by materials. The non-polluting automobile is a possible exception. One solution, for example, may be an electric automobile, but satisfactory low-cost battery materials are not presently available. Technologically, silver-zinc batteries could be used in a limited-range electric car, but the high cost of the necessary silver would exclude a mass market. An experimental version of such a car, built by General Motors in 1966, required 680 pounds of silver and zinc. The essential requirement is for a relatively low-cost battery system having a specific power of 100 watts/lb. and capable of producing 100 watt-hours of energy/lb. The best present candidate is the high-temperature sodium-sulphur battery; room-temperature electrolytes are clearly needed. High-cost materials also remain a primary factor against the fuel-cell-powered automobile. Materials take on a special significance in the automobile industry with its annual raw material consuption worth $5 billion.

In the following, we comment on certain materials technologies which are related to ground, sea, and air transportation respectively.

Materials technology, both for metals and plastics, is important in providing proper light-weight structures—for locomotives, for transit cars, for trucks and cars. It includes prediction of the fatigue and failure life of materials—essential in view of the service characteristics and long life of transportation equipment. Metal and plastic parts must be carefully screened for fatigue resistance because of the occurrence of cyclic forces, or random high-acceleration forces.

Although some advantage might be realized from more advanced materials throughout the product lines, in general the main requirements are met by state-or-the-art materials. However, there are interesting and important requirements for specialized subsystems such as electrical controls, storage-battery components, electrodeposited finish systems, etc. Nonsmoking, self-extinguishing polymers are now required by law for application in public transit systems. Lower-cost electrical insulations are a goal; the choice of present resin systems requires considerable tailoring with concern centering on flammability and smoke behavior as well as on dielectric strength, life, etc.

One of the most important areas for advances in transportation materials technology lies in the development of solid-state power components. As rail vehicles speed and power requirements increase, the trends in propulsion will be toward increased electrification and toward the use of A.C. traction motors. Technical challenges are in three areas:

1. Energy transfer, e.g. from the power-system grid to the moving vehicle and in reverse for braking, the latter being particularly important for achieving cooler subways.

2. Power conversion and control on board the vehicle, with the power being transferred from the grid or generated on board by a prime mover.

3. Propulsion units, either rotating motors for wheeled application or linear motors for future air-cushioned vehicles—or for magnetic suspension vehicles.

While we cite challenge areas using examples from mass transportation, it is also likely that solid-state power components based on silicon technology will increasingly find important use in other vehicle types.

On the assumption that for the forseeable future, ship propulsion will continue to rely upon the most inexpensive residual oils, whether for the boilers of marine steam turbines, in marine diesel engines, or in gas turbines, the materials problems will involve hot corrosion in the presence of sulphur and some components of ash, such as sodium and vanadium, and also ash deposition. Problems of this kind are being explored by the Maritime Administration in cooperation with marine equipment suppliers. In contrast, the problems associated with nuclear ship propulsion lie in a somewhat more remote future. Present programs and experience in nuclear fuel materials technology will no doubt contribute solutions here, and the relation of this work to national transportation goals, involving a substantial ship construction effort in the next two decades, must not be overlooked, as it affects both fuel supply and environmental impact, in this case on ocean ecology. For the present, however, corrosion resistance may be the most important material property in marine propulsion, where salt-containing air and fuels combine to form a very hostile atmosphere.

Among technologies that are critical to improved aircraft engines, with increased thrust-weight ratios which will permit greater payload, composites are at the head of the list. Low-temperature (up to 315° C) composites of high-performance filaments and high-temperature composites for 1100° to 1375° C service are both important.

All aircraft-engine manufacturers appear to believe that carbon-or graphite-reinforced polymers will be the eventual winner for low-temperature fan applications. Rolls Royce’s overly accelerated effort to put this material into their RB-wll contributed importantly to financial problems but these materials are potentially important in lowering engine weight. In time, modifications will be required for the higher temperatures that will be

encountered in higher-speed, multi-stage fans. Blade tips in the second and third stages of such fans may encounter temperatures as high as 315° to 480° C, in which case, higher-temperature polymer matrices may be required.

An alternate material is boron-reinforced aluminum. This is an important back-up to graphite fiber/polymer composites, because it is less anisotropic and is superior in erosion and impact. The aluminum may also have slightly greater temperature capability than the carbon-polymer materials.

An extensive “Composites Recast” NASA/Air Force study completed in the Spring of 1972 concludes that the utilization of composites (mainly polymer-and aluminum-matrix) is inhibited by cost and by lack of confidence. The high cost results from the small volume of business, lack of operational experience, and lack of data on the economics of high-volume production. Confidence is lacking due to (a) inadequate basic data and understanding of failure modes, (b) lack of data on properties versus life in various environments, and (c) penalties in performance due to such design requirements as holes, attachments, abrupt changes in contour, etc.

A second area for which composites hold promise is in high-temperature materials for use in the turbine section of a jet engine. High strength, high dimensional stability, excellent oxidation resistance, low density, and an operating capability above 1100° C for thousands of hours are required. Major problems in achieving these goals by means of synthetic composites are (a) the choice of filaments and matrix that are chemically compatible over long times, and (b) fabrication difficulties. One way of overcoming these problems is through “natural composites” in which the reinforcing and matrix phases are produced automatically in certain favorable cases by carefully controlling the solidification conditions. These composites are capable of providing a major advance in high-temperature materials.

A large ARPA program is also underway to develop ceramic turbine components. The emphasis is on the use of Si₃N₄ and/or SiC. Considerable progress has been made toward small integral Si₃N₄ blades and disk for automobile use. There is some skepticism about the applicability of such brittle materials in aircraft engines because of vulnerability to impact damage.

Metal eutectics, which may be viewed as composites formed naturally during properly controlled solidification of appropriate compositions, offer the possibility of significantly increasing the maximum material temperature in gas turbines. One especially attractive composition is a cobalt alloy reinforced with TaC.

When composites of the kinds we have mentioned become more widely used in engines, new modes of deformation and failure will be encountered. It will be important to understand the relationships among stress, strain, temperature, and cyclic frequency, and to be able to forecast failure in these materials.

Future jet-engine turbine buckets undoubtedly will be coated by materials which extend the life by providing environmental resistance and improve performance by maintaining a ductile surface to inhibit crack initiation. The latter will be of particular importance if one goes to more brittle materials. New ultra-hard synthetic materials have demonstrated substantial improvement over conventional carbide tools in the machining of jet-engine superalloys. Other new techniques, such as a plasma torch or laser beam used in conjunction with new tool materials, may offer significant promise for further improvement in the machining, drilling, or shaping of the materials for aircraft engines. Other opportunities may develop from (a) electrochemical machining of titanium and nickel-base alloys, (b) extension of the capability of laser drilling with high-powered lasers, or (c) ultrasonic assistance in machining materials.

Figure 4.5 shows the relevance between certain specific air transport objectives and selected materials problems we have touched on above.

We have focussed primarily on the material needs for aircraft propulsion, i.e. engines. One could extend this discussion of material needs into other areas of air transportation where R&D are both active and necessary.

Since air transportation has presented the greatest technical challenges in this century, and since defense needs have given an enormous impetus to innovation and performance improvement, the amount of research and development has been higher relative to total effort than in other segments of transportation, with correspondingly greater results. In terms of its comparatively small role in the U.S. economy, this heavy concentration of R&D is indeed noteworthy. In 1969, air transport moved less than 0.2% of all domestic intercity freight (in ton-miles), accounted for less than 10% of all intercity passenger traffic (in passenger-miles), employed 13% of all those working in the transportation industry, and occupied an important role only in operating revenue (which, of course, omits all nonpublic modes of transportation like the private automobile), where it accounted for not quite 20% of the total.

In this context, the role of R&D (in the aggregrate, not for materials) in transportation other than air must appear miniscule: for 1968 NSF data show 23,900 man-years of R&D scientists and engineers applied to “motor vehicles and other transportation equipment” (excluding aircraft) compared to 93,900 for “aircraft and missiles.” Moreover, in the first category, one-quarter is located in federal establishments, as against three-quarters in the second category. In terms of funds, “aircraft and missiles” group in 1969 received 3–1/2 times that of the “motor vehicles, etc.” group.

What is important to stress here is that the goal of a “balanced transportation system” would seem to imply a move toward more balanced R&D expenditures. But differences in the source of funds as well as the typically less critical nature of materials in ground transportation—and especially in private, passenger-driven transportation—as compared to political and social issues and decisions, pose a tough challenge to the materials community. It consists in identifying those technological impact areas where advances would make an early contribution to the achievement of the “balanced transportation system” that seems to be on everybody’s agenda but has so far eluded a firm

grip by politicians, economists, and technologists alike. Those addicted to spotting trends might add that concentration on where the wheel squeaks worst—i.e., the automobile and urban transportation generally—is slowly gaining over previous concern with the more exotic modes of transportation, such as hydrofoils, air-cushion vehicles, monorails, electronic highways, etc. Not that these are to be forgotten, but early payoff with massive impact appears to be an emerging objective that must also set the sights of the community.

In the long perspective of history, our national view of health service has evolved from that of a private relationship between physician and patient to that of a natural right of citizenship applicable above all to the aged and to the poor. If one looks for a specific turning point, the year 1965 marks the transition, but there were preceding signs of that development. Since 1965 rapidly unfolding events, both political and economic, have served (a) to reinforce the view of medical care as a “natural right,” and (b) to create the environment for substantial change in the professional practice of medicine. Medical research, at one time supported as the key to improved medical service, has taken second place behind the improvement and delivery of general medical service. Table 4.19 provides a checklist of important benchmarks in public policy formation.

The role of the Public Health Service (PHS) best reflects the changing goals. Established in 1789 to provide for the health needs of merchant seamen, it took 80 years before it became the national agency to implement national programs in control of communicable disease and epidemics. Beginning in the mid-1930’s, it was charged with the administration of the maternal and child health provisions of the Social Security Act. A decade later, the Hill-Burton Act of 1946 gave the PHS the task of allocating to the states funds for the construction of hospitals and for medical research facilities, followed within another decade by the National Health Survey of 1956, which instituted educational grants to ease the shortage of physicians, nurses, and other health personnel.

The PHS also came to administer numerous programs in areas of health research, mental health, environmental health, and consumer protection. By 1970, health R&D enjoyed third place in the national R&D list of priorities. But in 1965 the national health goals were deamatically changed by programs instituted under the Social Security and Welfare Administrations. In that year, the Medicare and Medicaid amendments to the Social Security Act of 1965 committed the federal government to finance medical service to the aged and to the poor. Inflation of medical costs rapidly boosted the cost of the program from $5.5 billion dollars in 1967 to $14 billion in 1971. Coming during a period of large budgetary deficits, inflation, and persistent unemployment, the expanding fiscal burden of Medicare and Medicaid is troublesome both to the Administration and to Congress because it seems relatively uncontrollable

without unpopular restrictions on the 1965 eligibility criteria. The result has been a critical examination of the medical service industry.

Instead of curtailing Medicare and Medicaid eligibility, attention is being directed toward options which would achieve cost control through improving the efficiency of health care delivery. Thus, the years since 1967 have witnessed an increasing public discussion through Presidential Commissions, Cabinet Committees, National Health Strategies, and State of the Union, Legislative, Budget, and Special Messages to Congress, all of which assert that the chaotic medical service industry must be improved and above all systematized.

The Report of a Commission on Health Manpower (1967) observed that “…medical care in the U.S. is more a collection of bits and pieces than an integrated total system in which need and efforts are closely related.”

The report of a Cabinet Committee on Price Stability (1968) called for the expansion of group medical practices, especially prepaid group practices, as a means of reducing the steep rise in the cost of medical services. In publicly initiating the Nixon Administration’s efforts at health service reform, the then Assistant Secretary of HEW referred to the present system as a “cottage industry.” As of mid-1972, ten different national health insurance proposals were before Congress, three of which call for some legislative restructuring of the health-care delivery system. In addition, the Administration, through HEW, is encouraging a voluntary restructuring of the system by the formation Health Maintenance Organizations (HMO’s). In his Special Health Message to Congress (February 1971), the President asked for $22 million to assist in setting up HMO’s, for $60 million to expand medical schools, and for amendments to the Health Profession Loan Program which would provide for loan forgiveness to graduates serving in underserved communities.

The Nixon Administration, as did the 1967 report, drew substantially upon the experience of the Kaiser-Permanente Program, a private system centered on the West Coast, which is the largest non-governmental healthcare delivery system in the United States. Through its participating organizations the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan, Inc., the Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and the six Permanente Medical Groups, the Program organizes, manages and provides medical, hospital and related services to more than two million subscribers and their dependents in five states. The Program now includes services in 21 hospitals and 54 medical office-clinic facilities for ambulatory care, by about 2000 physicians organized in six regional groups, at an average annual cost of $450 per family.

The Administration has set a goal of 450 HMO’s by 1973, with 100 located in presently underserved communities. By 1976 the plan calls for 40 million people enrolled in 1700 HMO’s, one-fourth from families with incomes below $8,000.

Along with the thrust toward improvement of the medical services, the last decade has seen several medical research programs initiated within the purview of The National Institutes of Health: the artificial heart program at the National Heart and Lung Institute (1964); the artifical kidney program at the National Institute of Arthritis and Metabolic Disease (1965); and the cancer program, though established in 1937, with a tremendous boost from a three-year authorization of $1.6 billion and a certain measure of

independence from NIH (1971). In spite of these new programs, the federal health research budget, which rose from $87 million in 1955 to $1.4 billion in 1967, has remained virtually level as attention shifted from health research to health care delivery. The exception has been the new attention to cancer research.

Until inflation comes under control, rising Medicare and Medicaid costs, because of their impact on the federal budget, will continue to be a major consideration in the determination of health care policy and will tend to depress expenditures for research. Materials science advances in the health care field will therefore be more likely to be conditioned by market forces than by growing federal expenditures for biomaterials research.

Health care is a $67 billion industry in the U.S. making it the nation’s second largest, with 80% of the spending divided equally between government and private consumers; private insurance carriers are responsible for the balance. Health care services account for 80% of demand with drugs, construction, professional equipment, research, etc., accounting for the remaining 20%. Growth has been rapid and continuous.

Health care expenditures rose at an average annual rate of 8% prior to 1965. Since passage of Medicare and Medicaid legislation in that year, they have risen at 12%.

Though a greater fraction of GNP is spent on health care in the U.S. than in other industrialized nations having national health coverage, the existence of an estimated 40 million Americans who currently receive little or no care added to anticipated population growth in the next decade could increase service demand by some 30%.

Governmental initiative will become the major driving force in reshaping our health delivery “system” in such a way as to enable it to meet the growth in demand; but as the government also becomes the major source of care spending, it will increasingly come to feel the fiscal burden, which is not under the discipline of annual appropriations, and may seek ways to restrain growth.

The national health strategy which these trends seem to be producing calls for the development of a system that recognizes the existence of a physician shortage which cannot be corrected in time to meet national needs. Thus, the strategy is aimed at increasing the service capacity of available physicians and thereby extending health service to a growing population while slowing the increase in per capita cost. This strategy is to be implemented by government action in the following areas all of which will have an influence on the medical market and the materials used by it:

1. Health Maintenance Organizations (HMO) —Federal support of HMO’s is growing, with HEW producing and distributing manuals and guidelines for the organization of large group practices, including hospitals, clinics, and laboratories, capable of delivering comprehensive health care and comprehensive medical record-keeping. Specific means of federal support are (i) planning and study grants,

(ii) operating grants for HMO’s in underserved areas, and (iii) grants to medical schools involved in HMO’s.

2. Ambulatory Care—Hospital construction funded under the Hill-Burton Act will soon give way to federally funded facilities for ambulatory care and rehabilitation. Per diem rates in these facilities are below those of hospitals and, within an HMO, the per capita bed requirement is half that prevailing at present.

3. Prepaid Fees—HMO’s will be financed by fixed annual “capitation” rates, replacing the present fee-for-service, and requiring HMO’s to maintain the subscribers’ health through regular examination and early diagnosis. The HMO will seek to improve its efficiency by greater use of so-called Allied Health Professionals, and improved medical and management procedures. HMO’s will, in effect, compete with one another for subscribers.

4. Redistribution of Medical Service—Loan forgiveness clauses in medical scholarships, as well as HMO grants, will be employed to attract service to presently underserved areas.

5. Health Maintenance Contracts—Medicare and Medicaid service are to be purchased by health maintenance contracts instead of the current fee for service, The sums involved represent about 23% of the total health service market, and can be used to influence not only the organization but also the standards of the health industry.

The association between specific goals and materials is less obvious in the field of health care than, say, in transportation or power generation, and this becomes more so, the more emphasis shifts from disease-specific to general health care goals. To demonstrate that an association exists, however, Figure 4.6 attempts to illustrate the derivation of materials goals from health care goals, though it stops short of the final link that establishes a material. Rather it terminates in types of apparatus, instruments, devices, or general classes of materials.

As shown in Table 4.20, the bulk of consumer expenditures for materials come under the categories of Hospital Supplies (15%), Drugs (10%), Equipment (3%), and Consumer Products (1%). Following the definitions adopted for the present study, Drugs and Consumer Products will not be discussed except to the extent that the organization of the entire industry is involved.

The distribution of spending for medical materials is best seen in Table 4.21 which indicates the sales in different areas during 1970 and, where available, current rates of growth. Medical materials may be classified in the following way:

1. Support Materials: used in general components of medical equipment and facilities.

2. Sensory Materials: essential elements in equipment which collects, converts, transmits, and records medical information. Usually sold as part of a larger apparatus.

3. Biomedical Materials: serve in temporary or permanent contact with human tissue or fluids.

Support and sensory materials are usually developed and evaluated outside of the medical research establishment by manufacturers whose scope and activities transcend any particular user industry. Sensory materials unique to medical instruments are developed by the instrument manufacturers to protect their markets.

Biomedical materials vary sufficiently in sales volume and associated business structure to permit a division into two classes. The first includes surgical supplies (sutures, etc.) and dental supplies (cement, etc.). Each of these sold between $250 and $300 million worth in 1970. The supplies are produced by aggressive drug and dental supply firms whose development efforts are highly proprietary in accord with the potential market. On the other hand, relatively small volume has kept down industrial research in specialized biomaterials such as cardiovascular equipment ($12 million); catheters, artificial organs, and heart-lung equipment, each with a 1970 market of $20–25 million. These four categories employ materials developed for purposes other than medicine, but innovative manipulation of silicone rubber, dacron, nylon, PVC, methacrylates, acrylics and hydrogels, a variety of vascular replacements, heart valves, ozygenators, etc., has met with varying degrees of success. Orthopedic applications of industrial titanium, vitallium, and 316 stainless steel have also become customary. To be sure, certain firms supply “medical grade” metals and plastics, but since standards tend to be poorly defined in the biomaterials field, this term is far from precise and subject to some controversy.

A major problem in biomedical materials is the insufficiency of agreed standards of evaluation. One specific handicap is the dependence upon the surgical branch of the health care industry for materials evaluation. This system is not designed to maintain the comprehensive postoperative medical histories required for materials evaluations in the improvement of surgical implants.

Continuous progress in biomaterials has been slow since most funded schedules have emphasized short-range device developments rather than longer-range work on gaining knowledge on how the adverse in-service reactions occur. Moreover, although strong industrial interest must be sti-ulated to overcome the negative effect of small volume, and ways be found to meet the problem that such sales volume precludes these companies from doing the needed basic research, further biomaterial research is still so much in its infancy that neither quantitative environmental parameters nor quantitative figures of merit for devices have been defined. Much needs to be done to develop meaningful and reliable evaluation procedures (in vivo) and couple these with

physical and chemical parameters (in vitro) which adequately characterize the material. The coordinating government agency lacks the capacity for imposing scientific standards of measurement upon its materials research contractors, and fundamental life-science questions such as the clotting mechanism of blood go unanswered as empirical solutions to nonthrombogenic surfaces are sought. A further obstacle is that the basic research work must be done in an atmosphere where materials research is integrated with device development and medical and surgical use; such work should be carried out at university-medical school complexes. This is being recognized and preliminary (NSF) funding is encouraging these types of interdisciplinary studies. On the other hand, as long as the delivery of medical services holds major attention, it will be difficult to establish sufficient priority for questions in the biomedical materials area.

Nonetheless, there is much activity in some of these fields. For example, the search for nonthrombogenic vascular-substitute materials had led to the screening of a large number of commonly available as well as new materials prepared specifically for this use. At present, the most promising candidates range from simple materials, hydrogel, carbon, and copolyetherurethanes to albuminated surfaces, fibril (both cell-seeded and non-cell-seeded surfaces on silicone rubber) and copolyetherurethanes. However, the knowledge of why these materials work is still largely speculation. Also, variations in fabrication techniques, identification techniques, surgical-implant techniques, etc. all can influence the final results.

In other areas, fiber-reinforced plastics are being evaluated as an orthopedic substitute. A variety of membrane-fabrication techniques are being employed to produce improved performance of economically attractive oxygenator systems. For the most part, however, these membranes are common materials cast or spun into membrane configurations.

Because of the fragmented nature of the industry supplying biomaterials it is difficult to gain an overview. Table 4.22 attempts to do so by linking specific materials with the impact that each has on its general characteristics and on health care specifically.

Foreign (including man-made) materials have been used in the repair of diseased and ravaged tissues for many years. These uses have ranged from temporary assist materials, to long-term (essentially permanent) hard- and soft-tissue replacements. In almost every case, the material used was developed for commercial purposes far removed from the biomedical environment. As a result, while there has been a tremendous advance in some areas, there have also been failures.

Two areas where much data are available to judge the MSE approach (or lack of it) are in orthopedic and in cardiovascular surgery. These are briefly discussed below.

Metals have been used for orthopedic applications for over 400 years. The primary function of orthopedic prostheses is for the internal fixation of fractures—screws, pins, plates, and nails. One of the classical rules for optimum fracture repair is immobilization. If this cannot be achieved by external splinting, the orthopedist must often surgically enter the fracture region and directly splint and fix the bone. The fixation device may be removed after healing is completed or it may be left in place indefinitely— depending on the age of the patient, the patient’s opinion, and the surgeon. Practically every available pure metal and a variety of alloys have been implanted for a variety of applications. Much of this work has been largely empirical. The great majority of the materials tried have not been successful because of inadequate mechanical properties and/or poor corrosion resistance. However, corrosion is not a major problem with today’s surgical alloys. There is still some concern, however, about faulty design and inadequate quality control of these devices, but in general most are quite satisfactory and do an adequate job.

One of the most challenging and difficult areas of modern orthopedic surgery is the surgical management of defects of synovial joints, largely in elderly and rheumatoid patients. The hip joint has received the most attention, although work is in progress on the knee, finger, and elbow joints.

A variety of devices and techniques exist whereby fractures of the head of the femur may be corrected. If the joint region itself is malfunctioning, but the bone is healthy, the joint can often be regenerated by a method known as cup arthroplasty. In many cases, however, one or both joint surfaces are deteriorated beyond repair. The only solution at present appears to be total joint replacement with a prosthesis. A commercial artifical hip joint consists of a ball attached to a long stem, which is friction fixed into the medullary canal of the femur. The mating surface (artificial acetabulum) is attached to the pelvic bone. The problems are many.

Fixation of the implant to the skeletal system is almost almost always inadequate, particularly on a long-term basis. The adhesion is a mechanical locking. Rarely is there ever any true adhesion across the implant/bone interface. Porous surfaces are being evaluated which permit bone ingrowth and hopefully a more stable fixation. Wear and lubrication in these joints is a major problem. Wear debris is common in the vicinity of such joints, often producing a substantial tissue reaction. Excessive wear and inadequate fixation eventually produces a malfunctioning joint, often one which literally wobbles

The artificial hip is a success in terms of relieving pain, restoring function, and general patient rehabilitation. Unfortunately, the success is not a long-term one. Usually complications develop after a number of years which greatly compromise the function.

The next largest use of implantable prostheses is in cardiovascular surgery, as in synthetic arteries and heart valves. Perhaps the most

difficult problem with the use of materials in contact with blood is the tendency for blood to clot when exposed to such materials. Though a number of mechanisms have been postulated, very little is known about blood/surface interactions. Also, relatively little basic work has been done on protein adsorption, cell adhesion, etc., i.e. the factors that initiate these adverse reactions.

In early studies on the repair of damaged vessels, solid impermeable tubes for blood conduits were employed. The poor results led surgeons to use transplanted vessels. They observed that transplanted vessels slowly die and disappear, leaving a skeleton which acts as a scaffold for new tissue growth. The new tissue growth forms a natural vessel-like lining in the inside of the tube which minimizes thrombus formation. Thus, vascular surgeons began studying how to develop this biological porosity, i.e. by the use of weaves, knits, velours, felts, etc., as porous blood conduits. These showed a high degree of success with limitations in terms of effective size. Relatively large diameter arteries (6–8 diameter and larger) were satisfactory, while smaller ones were not. Also, venous grafts gave trouble.

The success of the porous grafts depended on a series of responses: (a) the graft is preclotted and the interstices filled with clot (fibrin); (b) the graft is implanted—the clot surface is in contact with blood, and the outer clotted surface is in contact with the surrounding tissue; (c) during the first few weeks after implantation, connective tissue penetrates into the pores and begins to digest and organize the clot on both sides of the graft (this is to be expected—any typical wound-healing response consists of connective tissue cells penetrating into the clot, removing it, and restoring wound continuity; (d) the organization of inner surface is followed by blood vessels penetrating the graft through the pores; (e) as the inner surface becomes organized, it begins to mature and remodel, resulting in contraction (again, a classical wound-healing response). The contraction may result in pinching off the blood vessels, shutting off the blood supply, and resulting in tissue death. This does not occur if the fabric is of fairly high porosity; (f) thrombosis or calcification may occur at this stage, or the dead and dying tissues may incite a second wound-healing response. Also, the lining may sluff off, forming an embolus.

This process usually works well, though occasionally the inner layer may continue to grow, resulting in decreased flow or even stoppage. The situation gets more critical as the vessel diameter decreases. The very high porosities necessary to allow a viable inner lining means that there is a great risk of hemorrhage during the several weeks that the lining is forming. Also, the fixation of the artificial vessel to the natural vessel is not good. As a result, the strength of the juncture is dependent on the suture.

The development of successful vascular grafts has required controlled porosities and anti-kink properties as well as the creation of new fabrication processes to produce seamless bifurcations. It also required the cooperation of vascular surgeons, textile engineers, and experts on wound healing and blood clotting.

Present research is centered on compound vascular grafts, i.e., grafts containing a slowly dissolvable component which initially plugs the pores. The result is a graft of low initial porosity, but very high biological porosity. Again, these approaches suffer from a lack of fundamental

knowledge of why blood acts as it does; therefore, an empirical engineering design approach is used.

Both of the above areas are presently materials-limited. Further development must be coupled with understanding of the materials function in the environment at play.

There are many examples wherein materials constraints have greatly slowed or even stopped the development of an acceptable medical technique. The artificial kidney is an excellent example.

The laboratory procedure of dialysis (mass transport thrugh a semi-permeable membrane) was extended in 1913 to the perification of the blood of animals. While these efforts were successful in showing that hemodialysis was possible, the lack of reproducible membranes and anticoagulents kept this from developing into anything more than a laboratory experiment. It was not until thirty years later when, because of the developments outside the field of medicine resulting in the availability of both the anticoagulent heparin and a relatively inexpensive, reproducible cellulose membrane material (i.e., cellophane), that we saw hemodialysis move from the laboratory to the clinic. In 1943, Dr. Willem Kolff reported the development of a rotating drum type of “artificial kidney” and its successful use on a patient with acute kidney failure.

During the next two decades, there were many engineering and medical refinements leading to two major types of devices—the twin-coil and the flat-plate artificial kidneys. However, in all these years the artificial kidney was used primarily for patients with acute kidney failure in which restoration of renal function was anticipated. This restriction was primarily based on the lack of a good method for coupling the patient to the artificial kidney device. The shortage of suitable radial arteries and veins, and their subsequent loss of accessibility after the surgical procedure needed for dialysis, meant that only a limited number of dialyses could be performed. The longest patient survival using intermittent dialysis was 181 days.

In the late 1940’s, an indwelling vascular cannulae bypass shunt was studied as a technique to provide easy access to the patient’s blood system. However, only glass and rubber tubings were available for constructing the bypass device and these clotted severely unless the patient was continuously heparinized. It was not until 1960, when again developments outside the medical field in materials (i.e., the commercial availability of polytetrafluoroethylene-teflon, and polydimethylsiloxane-silastic rubber) enabled the development of practical indwelling cannulae for prolonged hemocialysis. With this development began the era of prolonged chronic dialysis. From the original patient (who is still alive), we have seen the procedure expand until today there are approximately 3,000 patients in the U.S. on chronic dialysis.

Improved engineering of devices has led to less expensive equipment, overnight unattended dialysis in the home, etc., and has made hemodialysis available to more people. (In the U.S. approximately 55,000 patients a year die of renal causes. On the basis of current medical selection criteria, it

is estimated that 7,500 patients per year in the U.S. alone are suitable candidates for chronic dialysis.)

However, even with these accomplishments during the last decade, we are again on a plateau where new materials for both membranes and the cannulae and blood circuits are needed.

The current materials—cellulose membranes, polytetrafluoreothylene, and polydimethylsiloxand—are not ideal in their properties. For example, the membrane material is essentially the same as that used by Kolff in the 1940’s. While many lives have been saved, recent reports indicate not only a disturbing trend in less full rehabilitation of the surviving patients, but an increase in patient complications. Many nephrologists believe the insufficient removal of medium and large size molecules may be responsible for the development of secondary complications. New membranes, specifically designed to allow the efficient removal of toxic materials from the blood are truly needed. Also, if these membranes could have a blood-compatible surface, problems relating to clotting could be reduced.

There are also many problems with the cannulae bypass system. The average of eight-month survival per site is not good, with problems such as clotting, mechanical trauma of the vessel wall, and infection still occurring with too high a frequency and causing failure. Much of the failure can be directly attributed to the lack of an ideal polymer that is compatible with both blood and tissues. Again, we are essentially using the same types of materials adopted by Scribner and Quinton in their original cannulas.

Therefore, new materials are necessary for membranes and cannulas. We can hardly afford the luxury of waiting for needed materials to fall out from future industrial processes slanted for commercial goods, but should seek these biomedical materials in their own right. To do this requires the development of much basic knowledge in the diffusional and surface properties of polymers.

Artificial hearts, heart-assist devices, and artificial heart valves are additional examples where limitation of the biomaterial state-of-the-art severely restricts further advances. Again the problem is largely one of blood compatibility. Post-operative complications of artifical heart valves and heart-assist devices are largely attributable to clot generation (emboli). It is generally recognized that materials constitute one of the major constraints delaying the artificial heart.

It is only within the last few years that the medical and materials communities have earnestly sought materials specifically produced or modified for medical applications, rather than relying on available materials developed for entirely different applications. The development of water-swellable, soft hydphilic gel known as Hydron was the result of a long discussion between polymer chemists and surgeons. The production of a truly pure, medically acceptable silicone rubber was the result of an industrial firm (Dow Corning) responding to a medical need. Examples such as these are still the exception.

There has been considerable progress in developing medical implants which has required the solution of difficult corrosion problems, tissue reactions, and the modification of surgical procedures. Further work is needed, of course; for example, in the problem of fixation of implants to bone and bioadhesions.

Fundamental bone-foreign surface studies are not at hand. The basic mechanisms of lubrication and fixation of natural synovial joints are not well known. Substantial design input from biomechanicists is needed. It is clear that in the past implants have been designed by inventive and creative surgeons, often with little understanding of mechanics. This is changing. The surgeon, biomechanician, and biomaterials specialists are beginning to work together.

An exciting area of orthopedic biomaterials research is that of bone ingrowth into porous metals and ceramics. It has been demonstrated that bone will grow into 100 micron diameter pores or larger for relatively large distances. There is hope that implants containing the appropriate surface porosity can be firmly and stably fixed to bone by such a mechanism. This research is requiring the expertise of the ceramist, powder metallurgist, orthopedist, and biomechanician, as well as the bone specialist.

Another area of importance is the study of blood and its relation to foreign materials. One of the key problems in implant materials today is the lack of true blood compatibility. Practically all nonliving materials (and many living structures as well) induce blood-cell damage, clot formation, and protein destruction. Various surface properties have been studied, including charge, surface free energy, hydrophilicity, roughness, and surface stress, but little or no correlations are certain. Surfaces containing bonded heparin (an anticoagulant) and aqueous gel surfaces show a degree of blood compatibility, as do some negatively charged surfaces but the results are yet to be proven clinically. The major problem is the complexity of blood, and the general lack of knowledge of interfacial reactions of blood. This is clearly an area where the interdisciplinary philosophy of MSE can have a major impact.

Yet another prospect is that of biologically active implants. Typical surgical implants, such as bone plates, sutures, shunts, etc., perform physical and mechanical functions, but generally exhibit no chemical activity. A new direction in implant engineering is that of implants with biochemical activity—implants which will actively participate in local biochemical processes. Such an implant must be biocompatible (no adverse reactions can be tolerated) and yet be bioactive.

A bioactive coating or surface is one which can actively enter into biochemical reactions with living organisms or with compounds derived from living organisms. This activity can range from biocidal—the actual killing of living things—to delicate, specific enzyme-catalyzed biochemical reactions

Health care is primarily a service industry, dominated by practicing professionals, in which materials other than pharmaceuticals play a generally subordinate role. Recently, however, several well-publicized advances in surgical techniques have employed selected materials which had earlier been developed for nonmedical purposes. Although attempts are now being made to develop special biomedical materials, this effort is hampered by the failure of the biomedical-materials field to define quantitative goal specifications

and standard materials-characterization procedures. Biomaterials research in industry is hard to justify in view of the small volume of materials consumption, and federal agencies appear unable to impose industrial MSE procedures on contract and grant recipients. This is so mainly because there is a lack of fundamental knowledge of the interactions between living and nonliving systems, and so there is severe difficulty in achieving whatever specifications one might set. What is needed, in other words, is a foundation on which to build.

The highest national health priority is currently assigned to the improvement of general health care services. Health research, particularly in those surgical areas which call upon special medical materials, has a relatively lower priority now than it did several years ago. This shifting national goal foreshadows changing markets for medical-service equipment, and it is in this direction that materials advances are now most likely to contribute significantly to general well-being.

The contributions which can be made by MSE to improved health care are clearly important. Significant progress, however, will require departure from two well-established traditions. First, biomaterials research requires a close working relationship between medical and materials professionals on an equal footing. This will depend on a broadened perspective among some of the medical community who have felt that only MD’s can contribute to health problems. Likewise, the biomaterials expert must interact with a wide variety of disciplines which are far removed from “classical” MSE, including all of the various surgical subspecialties, as well as biochemistry, hematology, immunology, urology, cardiology, orthopedics, microbiology, pathology, histology, physiology, and pediatrics. The interaction must be much more than a mere shaking of hands, but must involve understanding—which means studying and learning these many disciplines as they are needed, at least on an introductory level.

Secondly, the problems in this field are so complex, with so many specialized facets, that a sizeable team is required to make significant progress, perhaps at an annual rate on the order of $1,000,000 for each additional program. This is quite a departure from the tradition of supporting academic research in units of one faculty member, and will necessitate considerable adjustment both on the part of the funding agency and by the university administrative structure.

Concern for environment has been a recent but rapidly-rising national goal. To be sure, it has its historical roots, some reaching back many decades. Believers in the tenets of what has been called the American Conservation Movement, early in the 20th century, and even before that, men like George P.Marsh were troubled over man’s relationship to nature. But the concern that gathered momentum in the 1960’s hit with such force that, within the short span of a decade, a great variety of laws and institutions has

has arisen together with well-articulated popular aspirations, which have spun a whole new web of tasks all subsumed under the heading of “environmental quality.”

In concentrating on the 1960’s as the era of this new concern, one may come in for some criticism. The Refuse Act of 1899, for example, made it unlawful to discharge or cause to be discharged, into the nation’s navigable water, or tributaries thereof, “any refuse matter of any kind…other than that flowing from streets and sewers…” But while the Act was on the statute books and its provisions subject to enforcement by the Corps of Engineers, the nation’s rivers, lakes and estuaries became dirtier and dirtier. The rediscovery in 1970 of this Act as a suitable tool for water-pollution control can be understood only in terms of the prominence that “clean rivers” had assumed by then, just as its previous disregard merely reflected the absence of a pressing problem or felt need. Similarly, many cities have had ordinances dealing with dirty air as a nuisance, and monitoring of air began on a substantial scale in the early 1950’s. But a national attack on the causes of pollution did not materialize until the sixties.

The early moves were small-scale efforts. First Congressional attempts to pass a water-pollution control bill in 1936 and 1938 failed altogether; nor did legislation emerge from the strong warnings contained in a 1939 report by a Special Advisory Committee on Water Pollution of the National Resources Committee, which pointed to the role of water not only as a public health matter, but to its recreation role as well as its importance for fish and wild-life. It was not until 1948 that a Water Pollution Control Act was finally put on the statute books. As passed, it was temporary, experimental, and its financial provisions comprised only $5 million in expenditures and $22.5 million in landing authority. Even so, after five years, none of the lending authority has been used.

It was the 1948 Act, nonetheless, that became the base for later legislation, culminating in 1965 in passage of the Water Quality Act. Appropriations and lending authority rose sharply to the multi-billion dollar level, and administration was transferred first from HEW to the Department of the Interior (signifying the recognition that more than health was involved) and in 1970 to the newly established Environmental Protection Agency, based on the judgment that (a) environmental concern with different media needed an integrated approach, and (b) such concern should be carefully divorced from agencies that have missions in resource development.

The general point to be made is that while scattered legislation and administrative provisions pertaining to environmental matters existed prior to the 1960’s, escalation of concern and action in the past decade has been such that the sixties can be legitimately tagged as the era in which environmental enhancement first assumed the characteristics of a national goal. In addition to the Water Quality Act of 1965, pertinent legislation in the air-pollution field are the Clean Air Act of 1963, the Air Quality Act of 1967, and subsequent amendments. In the matter of solid waste, the Solid Waste Disposal Act of 1965 and its amendment by the Resource Recovery Act of 1969 fulfilled similar functions. A keystone law, the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA), signed into law on January 1st, 1970, coupled with the establishment of the Environmental Protection Agency toward the end of 1970, set up much of the machinery that now guides and implements federal policy. The

environmental impact statement, required under Sec. 102(C) of NEPA, has become a major vehicle for the evaluation of environmental policy and its application, and the courts are now broadly involved in helping to determine the boundaries of environmental concern and action. Presidential messages on the subject have accelerated from what in retrospect appears a modest beginning in President Johnson’s “Protecting our Natural Heritage” message of January 1967 to major and complex messages by President Nixon in 1970, 1971, and 1972, calling for expenditures of many billions of dollars annually. Table 4.23 provides a brief summary of major objectives as culled from Presidential Messages from 1967 to 1972.

Given the recency of the environmental goal, we had best refrain from trying to establish trends in any detail. Suffice it to say that, in general, one may spot a slight shift from attempts to clean-up towards attempts to prevent; and from concentration on technological remedies toward economic incentives and institutional remedies. But technological remedies remain a major plank, together with economic, social and political approaches.

Materials tasks can be derived from environment-associated issues in the following types of situations, some of which are illustrated in the balance of this section:

Effluent abatement

1. process restructuring

2. containment

3. recycling

Materials substitution

1. through alteration of existing devices

2. through substitute devices

Functional substitution

Waste disposal

1. increased degradability

2. reduction in noxiousness

Increased recyclability

1. through design

2. through suitable materials choice

A few general remarks before we come to details. Since most of what we call “the pollution problem” is generated by the displacement, processing, use, and disposal of materials, whether these be of organic or inorganic, natural or man-made origin, it is at once obvious that materials research occupies a central position in environmental management. Ideally, the flow of materials ought to be so structured that the residuals can be swept up in the on-going stream of natural geological, hydrological, meteorological, and biological processes without causing modification of the air, land, or water in ways harmful to living things generally, and to life-supporting natural systems. In fact, this ideal will not be achieved until we have improved

materials processing technologies for properly channeling the great flux of matter through the economy, and some improved materials of construction for use in the process, and until we have modified our institutions and incentives in ways that will lead to the adoption, functioning, and continuing improvement of such technologies.

The need is not, however, solely for new ways of transforming one material into another, or making different sorts of materials having desired sets of properties. Even more important are the needs for processes that carry out desired transformations more economically or with reduced generation of residuals, or pollution-control materials that are less expensive; or disposable materials that can be accepted into the biosphere after passage through conventional social channels. Development of technologies that permit environmentally compatible materials processing at reasonable costs, and environmentally harmless structural materials that are compatible with minimal change in social habits will greatly aid implementation of proposed environmental quality standards, and may even be crucial to their attainment.

The challenges to MSE are particularly great in the areas of water pollution, air pollution, solid-waste management, and toxic substances.

The widely quoted data presented in Table 4.24 indicates that the materials processing industries (all but the last four items in the table) produce about two-thirds of the total water pollution—created by non-agricultural human activities in the U.S. The average costs of meeting current effluent standards in these industries during 1974 are projected to run in the range 0.2–1.6 percent of sales, (Environmental Quality 1971, p. 123). This suggests that these industries as a whole can probably meet existing water-quality standards without much disruption. An increase in effluent quality from that provided by partial treatment, as above, to that given by complete treatment could easily increase the treatment costs 10-fold, even when a known technology exists to do the job (ibid., pp. 118–119). The level of cost increase in basic commodities that would ensue would almost certainly give rise to serious dislocations and controversy.

A more striking situation pertains to the processing of domestic sewage. This contributed only 30 percent of the tonnage of 1964 water pollutant discharges, but its treatment even to existing standardw will require two-thirds of the total treatment expenditures (Environmental Quality 1971, pp. 114–115). The added costs required to meet higher standards using existing technology will meet legislative resistance. New materials of construction to lower the costs of sewer-line and sewage-plant construction, new treatment techniques, new process controls to ensure effluent quality, and new process materials would relieve the pressure generated by the establishment of new goals.