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Chapter 2
VIE PHASE IV CAPITAL REPLACEMENT PROGRAM
The Air Force has decided to treat Phase IV procurement as a
capital replacement program. The Committee supports that decision
completely. The program properly emphasizes the much-needed
modernization of the data processing equipment used to provide base
level services. The Air Force's current equipment is aging,
obsolescent, and more than a decade behind that used to provide
comparable services to industry. Its continued use would increase the
already high costs for programming, operation, and maintenance, and
would not permit the expansion of capacity and capabilities needed for
improved services.
The committees support of the Air Force's present emphasis on
hardware replacement, implying a corresponding postponement of
software redesign, is an expression of realism rather than enthusiasm.
The complexities and delays inherent in the procurement of data
processing equipment by the U.S. government are well known. In a
project the size of Phase IV, adding the complication of software
change would have thrown additional obstacles in the path of the long
overdue modernization effort.
However, as will become clear, the full potential of the new
equipment lies in its ability to provide information services in ways
very different from the present software-hardware combination. Once
the Air Force has adapted its current software to the new equipment,
it can use the latter to provide many new services that are not now
economic.
An important conclusion of the committee should be recorded:
because of trends in technology, the Air Force will probably be able
to make future capital improvements by incremental rather than
wholesale investments. The equipment proposed by either of the
current Phase IV contractors will be compatible with evolutionary
growth and change. By following such an evolutionary pattern, the Air
Force's information services at the base level can benefit from
continuing decreases in hardware costs, as have information services
in industry.
Thus, the economic forces that have in the past dictated high-cost,
centralized approaches to computing will no longer exist. Processors
with the capacity and power of the medium-sized systems now in use at
Air Force bases can even now be built on just a few silicon chips.
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When this revolution has finally run its course, it will be possible
to create functionally distributed processing systems of great power
and low cost. Because of their modular character, the Phase IV
systems will probably never need to be totally replaced. The Air
Force should aim to avoid another complete capital replacement,
especially in view of the difficulties of the past decade {see
Appendix A).
ADEQUACY OF THE PROPOSED EQUIPMENT CONFIGURATIONS
The family of computing equipment proposed by each of the
potential contractors in Phase IV meets the Air Force's needs. Each
offers substantial modularity of function and a range of options for
processing, input-output control, and storage. It should be possible
to select with much greater precision than before the exact amount of
processing power required at a given installation. It should also be
possible to expand the systems into substantial aggregations of
processing and filing power capable of handling many times the
presently anticipated load. Data communications interfaces appear
reasonably straightforward. This is an important prerequisite to
developing an effective network or system of distributed functions.
Many issues involving standardization of communications protocols
will, of course, have to be addressed as the system develops.
It is fortunate that modern computer systems have a wide range of
processing options because the Air Force may have underestimated the
potential future need for computer services. The forecasts shown to
the committee seem to project a computing load growing roughly linearly
with time. Industry, however, teas experienced more nearly exponential
growth, though without the artificial constraints characteristic of
the Air Force's older base level systems. When Phase IV's more
flexible, capable, and economical systems are introduced, new
applications will become not only possible but also economically
justified through superior service to users. Therefore, the committee
believes that demand will be substantially heavier than forecast by
straight-line methods.
Phase IV will share resources wherever justified to cut costs.
Some bases will use computing services provided by data processing
installations located at regional centers, thus reducing duplication
of equipment, facilities, and personnel. These savings will be offset
by added communications costs. Whether regiona~ization can reduce
overall costs will depend on the specific costs of people, computers,
and communications. However, the economics that have justified
regionalization in the past are becoming less valid with time. In
earlier generation computers, the high costs of central processors and
high-speed memories dictated centralizing of computing resources.
With new technology, processors and high-speed memories cost much
less. This allows processing to be performed where data files are
logically maintained. Lower cost of higb-speed memories allows more
sophisticated operating systems to be used, even by smaller processors.
Software systems that rely less on batch processing techniques will
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reduce manpower requirements. The Air Force should analyze costs and
their trends to determine how much regionalization to adopt under
Phase IV.
THE PEASE IV PROGRAM BEYOND TRANS ITION
The Phase IV program management should be able to deliver
operational sets of the transition software on both competing systems.
It should also be able to convert the remaining software expeditiously,
using a variety of automated tools. When the transition is complete,
the Air Force will have acquired contemporary equipment.
However, except for some software modernization achieved by the
Phase IV vendors, the Air Force will be using programs originally
designed for outdated hardware. Longer term use of these old programs
will prevent the new equipment from being operated as efficiently as
possible, as well as-probably requiring more manpower. For example,
in the desire to minimize software changes in the transition systems,
operations that still depend on punched cards and magnetic tape or
other sequential file structures may be retained even though on-line
access and data base management systems would offer better service at
lower costs. The transition systems will probably continue to rely
significantly on batch processing. Thus, they may continue to require
more manpower than would be needed if the applications were
reprogrammed to serve users interactively directly from remote
terminals.
The Phase IV system's technological capabilities should not be the
reason, however, for redesigning all the software. Many existing
applications, which produce periodic reports, should probably be kept.
Unless it would either lower costs (e.g., by reducing paper handling
or personnel) or improve services to users (e.g., by giving supply and
maintenance personnel access to common computer files), software
redesign should not be undertaken. Programmers are a costly resource
in short supply.
Phase IV software will be covered later in this report. It is
important to recognize, however, that the Phase IV systems, once
installed, can and will provide the basis for greater efficiency and
management responsiveness. The new systems can connect to and
communicate with other information systems, both on the base and at
other locations, with low additional investments in equipment. The
new Phase IV computers will lend themselves to distribution of
computing functions and local area networking--both important
evolutionary steps to prevent the need for another capital replacement.
The Promise and Challenge of New Technology
Information processing is changing more rapidly than almost any
other technical endeavor. Because of continual innovations in hardware
and software design, computer systems put into service as recently as
five years ago may be functionally obsolete today. For example, the
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hand calculator--a radical innovation in the early 1970's--could
perform many computer functions for less than $300. It made its
mechanical predecessors obsolete. Today's hand calculator of
equivalent power costs less than $30, most of that for the display and
keyboard. Next year, the same $30 might buy a combined digital watch
and programmable calculator.
Thus, technological trends need to be considered in planning for
future information systems. Manufacturing processes using very large
scale integration (VLSI) techniques can produce the same logic on
three small silicon chips that now exists in a medium-sized ~mainframe"
computer. The $1,000 "mainframe" computer is now in sight and will
probably shrink to a $100 mainframe later in the 1980s. VLSI
techniques have also radically decreased the costs of main computer
memories. In earlier generation systems, the high cost of memory
tended to limit the number of applications or of simultaneous users a
processor could handle. Now, even inexpensive computer systems can
implement sophisticated operating software for multi-user applications.
Though the mainframe costs alone do not define total system costs, this
drastic rewriting of the cost/performance rules will revolutionize
information systems. The current practice of centralizing computing
hardware in one room can hardly be justified when the same power can
be distributed in quantity at very low cost to locations where the
processing is needed (e.g., the finance office, maintenance shop,
flight line, or supply room).
It may be difficult to understand the relevance of the "number of
computers at a base" when they are counted in dozens and priced in the
hundreds of dollars each. When processors can be obtained that have
the cost and size of today's hand calculators, but the power of a
current mainframe, then functions can be added to a system by procuring
additional specialized subsystems each having low cost and high
capability.
Planning for systems of this type is underway in the business
community. Docal area data networks (e.g., Ethernet, Wang Net, or
Hyperchannel) promise effective and economical integration of
dissimilar specialized processors into a flexible aggregate.
Moreover, this revolution is not confined to hardware. Software
systems will evolve to include functions such as data management and
retrieval as parts of their own processors. They will also perform
these functions for other processors communicating with the same data
bases. Finally, the processors need not all be made by the same
manufacturer or be located in the same room. Thus, they will have a
potential for evolutionary growth toward highly flexible base level
systems whose components can be tailored to service the needs of a
given base.
The Air Force must recognize these trends as inevitable and
desirable, and should meet them head on. Without a coherent plan,
information processing at the base level might drift into an
uncontrolled and uncoordinated proliferation of independent
m~niprocessors and microprocessors in the personal computer class.
Because of their low cost, these appear highly effective for
satisfying user needs, but they must be regarded as part of an
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integrated base-level system and added within the framework of a
coherent plan.
For example, word processing systems containing shared logic and
terminals will undoubtedly acquire more powerful computational
capability. Once capital replacement is complete, Phase IV computers
could serve as hosts for integrated base level systems. The emerging
technology of distributed processing, coupled with bigh-performance
local data networks, could connect functionally specialized systems at
low cost into cooperating base networks. If this opportunity is
missed, Phase IV systems could become splendid relics unable to adapt
to changing times. Phase IV should be regarded as a vehicle to
maintain the information systems at the leading edge of technology and
to offer greatly improved and better integrated services to base level
management.
The need for closer coupling between data automation and
communications deserves special attention. In a distributed system,
communications is part of the system rather than a necessary but
separate function, as it is now.
It will be difficult to connect separate processing elements into
a local, base level distribution network unless the data automation
and communications communities jointly define the system
characteristics. There will, of course, continue to be a need for
centralized host computers; these will continue to communicate with
higher echelons or with remote centers, such as the Air Force's
Manpower and Personnel Center or the Accounting and Finance Center.
Intra-base networks can be created to distribute data by combining
conventional and advanced techniques. Today's point-to-point wiring
may give way to more flexible switched connections using digital
private automatic branch exchanges (PABX). Using coaxial or fiber
optic cables, processors will be connected with terminals on a common
data bus at high speed and relatively low cost.
The Air Force may have to consider new organizational approaches
to defining composite requirements for local systems that integrate
host processing (Phase IV equipment), word processors and electronic
mail services, and a pervasive local data network. At present, these
are the domains of three relatively independent communities, but the
interests of these communities will tend to merge as an outgrowth of
the new technology.
Personnel
Without exception, both the system users and the data automation
community within the Air Force have many dedicated and knowledgeable
professionals. They are producing workable software systems despite
cumbersome batch operations, too few terminals, and the absence of
modern software development tools. Users in all functional areas seem
well aware of the limitations of the present systems, but have adapted
to them and are enthusiastic at the prospects of a modernized system.
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However, contemporary equipment and improved capability will
highlight the Air Force's critical problem of too few highly trained
personnel. This gap would prevent the Air Force from realizing the
full potential of the Phase IV system. For their definition,
development, and effective use, new services and applications will
require a cadre of software specialists, fully trained in modern
information systems.
The Air Force should examine its training programs, reenlistment
incentives, and recruiting practices to improve the retention rates
for data automation specialists at all levels. The emphasis should
shift from filling slots to building quality and experience. Obtaining
high-quality graduates, particularly in computer science, should
receive more emphasis in officer recruiting. Crossflow from other
specialties into data automation should be viewed as less desirable
than retention of experienced enlisted personnel.
In summary, because software rather than hardware will determine
the success with which Phase TV and its successor systems provide
efficient, versatile services to users, and since quality software can
be produced only by highly trained and experienced specialists, it is
now more important than ever that standards of quality and training be
carefully examined and improved by all possible means.
In addition to ensuring continued availability of highly qualified
computer professionals, the Air Force also needs to plan for a gradual
change in how these people support base level automation. At present,
data automatons assume total responsibility for meeting the computing
needs of the users located on an air base. Users are regarded as
consumers, not creators, of services.
The evolutionary change that must be planned for will come about
when users begin to acquire more independence in their own computing
affairs. If the Air Force adopts an approach involving more autonomous,
functionally distributed processing at base level, and if users can do
some of their low-level programming on distributed small computers,
data automatons can begin acting as advisors and disseminators of
programming techniques and useful software to help the users get the
most out of their new autonomy.
Software: The Key to Improved Services
Current software systems that operate at base-level installations
represent a substantial investment of human resources. After this
software is adapted to the new equipment, many additional systems will
be developed to meet expanded user needs.
The ability to implement new services will depend on the
productivity of the data automation specialists. Like its counterparts
in industry, the Air Force should emphasize programming productivity
as the key to the successful creation of new and modern software
systems capable of exploiting the new equipment. Because hardware
costs will diminish over the life cycle of the Phase IV program,
attention will increasingly focus on programming productivity and the
maintainability of software systems. Personnel costs, not hardware
costs, dominate today and will probably continue to do so.
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Several aspects of software technology should be fully studied and
exploited to contain the cost of developing and maintaining new
systems. Some permit programmers to be more productive, some lower
maintenance costs, and still others reduce software costs by enhancing
interchange and sharing of software among commands. Base-level
software systems should be produced with the aid of specialized
software development facilities at the Air Force Data Systems Design
Center and at major commands. These facilities should be linked in a
network to permit software sharing. Also, structured programming
techniques should be aggressively adhered to and data base software
systems should be used for efficient file management. Finally, query
and report generation languages should be improved to increase their
use and thus reduce or eliminate the need for programmers in many of
the simpler, user-specific applications.
Maintaining a Focus on Evolutionary Growth
Even without the problems imposed by the cumbersome and time
consuming Federal procurement process, the Air Force has many reasons
to avoid major capital replacement programs. Replacing large numbers
of common computer systems worldwide can be prohibitively expensive,
time consuming, and disruptive. Still, obsolete equipment no longer
in production needs to be completely replaced. Because this equipment
supports many data processing programs for different users at many
locations, all are affected by the replacement.
With the new generation of computing equipment now
introduced, however, it will be possible to avoid such
being
expensive
traps. The key will be found in the drastic reduction of costs of
processors, memories, and other electronic components. Entire
collections of programs and services no longer need to be combined in
the same central processor. Information processing is moving toward
distribution of functions into separate, small pieces each performing
a function for which it has been designed.
For example, communications are being handled now by specialized
front-end processors. If communications networks should significantly
improve, front-end processors might be exchanged for more capable
models without affecting central processors or application programs.
A wholesale capital improvement program might not be necessary to
improve communications.
Similarly, recently introduced Back-end processors" or Data
management engines" (specialized processors) can retrieve and
manipulate data. They Can thus relieve mainframe processors of that
duty. Improved data structures or retrieval speed can oe orougnc
about by exchanging back-end processors, again without signif icantly
altering other elements of the system.
Another opportunity for evolutionary growth will arise from a
different kind of distributed processing. In addition to providing
distributed computing processors (e.g., communication or data base),
specialized processing can be distributed by user functions. For
example, a specialized base level subsystem could be designed to
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support civil engineers. Such a system could be located close to and
configured for their software. Because the subsystem would have local
communications, it could be considered part of the base-level system.
Such systems need not be expensive: a civil engineering system might
cost $50,000, whereas a system to support the base pharmacy might be
only $20,000 (hypothetical but possible figures). Neither of these
hypothetical systems would require manpower per se. Each would be
operated entirely by those who use its services on their jobs. The
important issues are the overall cost of the system, including
software, and its ability to support the users adequately.
Thus, the days of monolithic systems are, fortunately, numbered.
Compatible processors from the Phase IV family will range from very
small to very large. Processors from other vendors may be added to a
base-level local network to support functions while communicating with
others in the network, including the central host systems. The
advantage to the Air Force is that this concept will permit orderly,
nontraumatic growth and change; evolution will be possible by adding
or changing functional processors in a less disruptive way.
Control over the base-level networks is a concern for managers.
Presently, data automation and communications organizations are
separate entities at each base. If distributed processing networks
are introduced to replace the current centralized systems, data
communication becomes part of the system rather than merely a service
function. The data automation community will need to take the
initiative for directing the orderly adoption of such network-based
systems, while permitting users the flexibility that the system
promises. Centralization of all applications on a big mainframe in a
single computer room, once prized as offering economies of scale,
should be regarded as contrary to evolutionary growth and not
cost-effective. It should be avoided in favor of distributed
functions, local communications, and dissimilar but compatible small
processing units.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
data automation
