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Behavioral and Social Aspecis of Energy Consumpffon and Produchon: Preliminary Report Committee on Behavioral and Social Aspects of Energy Consumption and Production Assembly of Behavioral and Social Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washi ngton, D.C. 1 982 .

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. 1

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COMMITTEE ON BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION ELLIOT ARONSON (CHAIR), Stevenson College, University of California, Santa Cruz ROBERT AXELROD, Institute of Public Policy Studies, University of Michigan* JOHN DARLEY, Department of Psychology, Princeton University SARA KIESLER, Department of Social Science, Carnegie- Mellon University DOROTHY LEONARD-BARTON, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JAMES MARCH, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University JAMES MORGAN, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan PETER MORRISON, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California LINCOLN MOSES, Department of Statistics, Stanford University LAURA NADER, Department of Anthropology, University of California, Berkeley STEVEN E. PERMUT, School of Organization and Management, Yale University ALLAN SCHNAIBERG, Department of Sociology, Northwestern University ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University THOMAS J. WILBANKS, Energy Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee PAUL C. STERN, Study Director RICHARD HOFRICHTER, Research Associate ELLIS COSE, NBC Fellow WENDY H. SINIARD, Administrative Secretary *Currently on leave at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University.

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CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AREAS OF CONTRIBUTION OF THE BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES TO ENERGY POLICY Possible Areas of Contribution, 5 Consumer Response to Incentives, 5 Consumer Response to Information, 6 Attitudes, Social Interactions, and Energy Consumption, 7 Energy Use and Social Values, 7 Energy Conservation in Rented Buildings, 7 Energy Conservation by Organizational Consumers, 8 Distributional Implications of Energy Policies, 8 Major Changes in the Economy, 9 Organization of Production and Investment, 9 Local Energy Initiatives and Responses, 10 Response to an Energy Emergency, 10 Consumer Options in an Energy Crisis, 11 Administration of Scarcity, 12 Topics Selected for Detailed Study by the Committee, 12 The Behavior of Energy Consumers, 12 Local Actions to Provide Energy Services, 13 Preparation and Response in Energy Emergencies, 15 ENERGY CONSUMERS AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT The Energy Consumer, 19 Five Models of Consumer Behavior, 19 v 1 5 17

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Interpersonal Influence and Imitation, 23 The Momentum of Past Behavior, 26 Personal Values and Norms, 27 The Environment of Energy Consumption, 29 Energy Unawareness and Energy Invisibility, 29 Problems of Energy Information, 32 Uncertainty in the Energy Supply System, 39 The Symbolic Context of Energy Use, 40 Limited Choice, 41 Some Implications of the Efficient Working of Market Forces, 47 Summary, 48 REFERENCES 51 APPENDIX: TWENTY DILEMMAS OF OIL W LNERABILITY 55 Robert Axelrod Dilemmas of Preparation, 56 Dilemmas of Anticipation, 58 Dilemmas of Crisis Response, 62 Conclusion, 65 References, 65 V1