CONTENTS

 

 

Executive Summary

 

1

   

 • Confidence in the Nuclear-Weapon Stockpile and in Related Capabilities

 

1

   

 • Capabilities for Monitoring Nuclear Testing

 

5

   

 • Potential Impact of Foreign Testing on U.S. Security Interests and Concerns

 

7

 

 

Introduction

 

13

   

 • The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

 

14

   

 • U.S. Safeguards

 

16

Chapter 1:

 

Stockpile Stewardship Considerations: Safety and Reliability Under a CTBT

 

19

   

 • Nuclear Testing: Historical Perspective

 

20

   

 • Factors Influencing Safety and Reliability

 

22

   

 • Elements of an Effective Stewardship Program

 

27

   

 • Maintaining Nuclear Design Capabilities

 

32

   

 • Change-Control Discipline

 

32

   

 • Priorities in Stockpile Stewardship

 

33

   

 • Concluding Remarks

 

33

Chapter 2:

 

CTBT Monitoring Capability

 

35

   

 • General Aspects of All CTBT Monitoring Technologies

 

37

   

 • Monitoring Underground Nuclear Explosions

 

39

   

 • Radionuclide Releases From Underground Explosions

 

45

   

 • Monitoring Against Underground Evasion Scenarios

 

46

   

 • Methods For Improving Seismic Monitoring Capability

 

49

   

 • Monitoring Underwater Nuclear Explosions

 

51

   

 • Monitoring Nuclear Explosions in the Atmosphere

 

52

   

 • Monitoring Nuclear Explosions in Space

 

53

   

 • The Role of Confidence-Building Measures and On-Site Inspections

 

55

   

 • Research and Development in Support of CTBT Monitoring

 

56

   

 • Conclusions on CTBT Monitoring Capability

 

57

Chapter 3:

 

Potential Impact of Clandestine Foreign Testing: U.S. Security Interests and Concerns

 

61

   

 • Two Reference Cases: No CTBT and the CTBT Strictly Observed

 

63

   

 • Evasive Testing Under A CTBT

 

67

   

 • Assessment of the Impact on U.S. Security Interests Of Nuclear Weapons Tests of Selected Countries

 

70

   

 • Summary of Potential Effects of Clandestine Foreign Testing

 

77

Appendix A:

 

Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

 

79

Appendix B:

 

List of Committee Meetings and Briefings

 

83



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