strength now essentially stable. The question of projected changes for the future now comes to the fore. We acknowledge that this is an area in which unanticipated events can have dramatic effects; such events could radically alter any projections of needed force size. What we can do is examine articulated national security strategy and various planning documents and consider the implications of these for force size.

In light of the September 11, 2001, attacks and subsequent terrorist threats to the United States, it seems unlikely to us that force sizes will be reduced in the near term from their current levels. We also do not see clear evidence of factors that would result in a significant increase in net force size. For example, while it is clear that military technology will become increasingly sophisticated and may affect the knowledge and skill mix needed in the enlisted force, it is not clear that technological change will affect force size per se. We reviewed research on historical changes in the distribution of military personnel across occupational categories over the past 25 years and found very little evidence of change.

Conclusion: Although the events of September 11, 2001, have increased uncertainty regarding future demand, we found no compelling evidence that requirements for numbers of new personnel will change radically in the future. Therefore, for planning purposes, we assume that over the next 20 years military missions and structure will require about the same numbers of new personnel joining the military every year.

We reviewed current military entry requirements and examined the possibility of future changes in these requirements. We also examined research projecting aptitude requirements of future military jobs. The results of this work are mixed, with some studies projecting no significant changes in aptitude requirements, and others projecting a need for somewhat higher aptitude levels, at least in some jobs.

We also compared the aptitude levels (as indexed by AFQT scores) of recent accession cohorts with the civilian population ages 18–23, and with minimum aptitude requirements for military jobs. These analyses indicate that military enlistees compare very favorably to the civilian population and that the Services are accessing individuals well above the minimum requirements for successful performance.

• The Services are currently accessing recruits who have sufficient aptitude and can be trained to perform military tasks adequately. Recruits satisfying current qualification levels will meet future demands.

Front Matter (R1-R14)

Executive Summary (1-8)

1. Introduction (9-14)

2. Military Manpower Requirements (15-40)

3. Demographic Trends (41-69)

4. Trends in Youth Qualifications and Enlistment Standards (70-96)

5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth (97-148)

6. Youth Values, Attitudes, Perceptions, and Influencers (149-189)

7. Determinants of Intention or Propensity (190-217)

8. Military Advertising and Recruiting (218-249)

9. Conclusions and Recommendations (250-275)

References (276-286)

Appendix A: Letter Report: Evaluation of the Youth Attitude Tracking Study, YATS (287-298)

Appendix B: Letter Report: The Scientific Basis of the Popular Literature on Generations (299-308)

Appendix C: Biographical Sketches (309-314)

Index (315-328)