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Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment (2003)

Chapter: 5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth

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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

5
Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth

As they approach the completion of primary and secondary school ing, eligible youth confront the choice of entering military service. Competing with this choice are two primary alternatives: (1) entering the civilian labor market and (2) continuing education by entering college.1 In this chapter, we examine these choices, focusing on understanding the aspects of the choice that may affect the decisions of recruit-eligible youth (e.g., high school graduates).

THE DECISION TO ENLIST: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL

Underlying the rationale for examining these choices is a simple model of occupational choice: individuals compare pecuniary and nonpecuniary benefits of enlisting and conditions of service relative to their next best alternative and choose the one that provides the greatest net benefits. In this model, we hypothesize that individuals, at the completion of high school, choose a time path of jobs, training, and education that maximizes their expected welfare or utility over their lifetime. Elementary labor economics suggests that the utility of a job is a function of earnings and deferred compensation, benefits, working conditions, and hours of work (or its complement, leisure.) However, the earnings the individual can command, as well as the other aspects of the job, are a function of education, training, and experience. Hence, the individual has an incentive to

1  

While there are other options available after finishing high school (e.g., marriage or leisure), this chapter focuses on the primary choices that compete for youth.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

invest in additional education by attending college and to seek jobs that provide training that is generally valued in the labor market because this improves future job opportunities and earnings. The path chosen by any particular individual will depend on the individual’s tastes, innate abilities, information, and resources.

This choice model emphasizes the notion of a path of activities, rather than a single choice. In making a choice (or a series of choices), the individual invests in gathering information regarding alternatives, which can be a costly process. Furthermore, the information that the individual has with regard to various career paths is imperfect. Military service may be part of a path that also includes additional schooling and eventual entrance into the civilian labor market. Alternatively, military service could include a full career of 20 or more years of service.

In the remainder of this chapter, we outline the key aspects of each of the three major alternatives—military service, additional schooling, and civilian employment—that are likely to be relevant to the individual’s choice. We examine the tangible benefits associated with an option, the other conditions associated with that choice, and possible intangible factors.

MILITARY SERVICE

The Enlistment Process

We begin by outlining the enlistment “production” process itself. Though there are differences in the details, the general process is the same for all of the Services (see Figure 5-1). All, or almost all, entrants enter at the “bottom” of a closed personnel system; there is little or no lateral entry. Consistent with our conceptual model, each Service competes for the youth population with civilian employers, colleges, and the other Services. Recruiters—the Services’ sales force—have quotas or targets for the enlistments in each period, typically one month. The Services also offer enlistment bonuses and education benefits, in addition to the basic education benefit offered to all recruits under the Montgomery GI Bill, which is targeted to qualified recruits who enlist in particular occupational specialties.

In order to qualify for military service, all applicants must first take the Armed Services Vocation Aptitude Battery (ASVAB). In addition, a background check is used to determine if the applicant is morally qualified for service. Once these two areas of qualification are met, the applicant can be offered a military job.

Most qualified applicants who accept the offer of enlistment do not begin military service immediately. Instead, they enter the delayed entry

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

FIGURE 5-1 Simple description of the enlistment production system.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

program (DEP). While in the program, the recruit remains at home, continuing life as a civilian. The primary purpose is to schedule the recruit’s entry into service to coincide with basic and initial skill training classes and to accept applicants who are high school seniors and have not yet graduated. At some point, the recruit will enter basic training and upon completion will be assigned to a duty station. Typically, the first duty station is overseas for the Army and sea duty for the Navy.

Conditions of Military Service: An Overview

Enlistment in military service is unlike accepting a civilian job or even entering college; the military institution has a much larger influence on the member’s life while in the military. Although the service is constrained by laws and regulations and the recruit voluntarily agrees to accept the order and discipline of military life, the degree to which the military service influences the recruit’s location, hours of work, food and housing, and even leisure activities vastly exceeds that of any other choice.

The recruit begins by signing an enlistment contract that obligates the individual to serve for a specified period. This both constrains the individual’s employment over the term of the agreement and provides a degree of security in employment over the period. The potential recruit must consider this aspect of enlistment when making a decision. The contract itself is potentially enforceable, but in practice has not been strictly enforced in a peacetime, volunteer environment.2

All recruits receive basic training and most receive initial and advanced training in a particular skill. The skill training can range from technically intensive training in electronics, computers, nuclear power, or avionics to training in law enforcement, clerical skills, or mess management skills.

Initial and advanced skill training can last from a few weeks to well over a year. During this time in training, the member receives full pay. Most formal training occurs when the Service member is relatively junior and receives only modest pay. Nevertheless, civilian-sector employers do not typically provide training in such general areas as basic and advanced electronics, at no cost to the employee, while paying the employee’s full salary. One of the reasons the military Services are able to do this is that

2  

In particular, about 10-20 percent of recruits who enter the delayed entry program do not enter the service. In effect, they break their enlistment contract before they even begin. The Services do not attempt to enforce the contract. Similarly, almost 40 percent of recruits fail to complete their initial term of service, for a variety of reasons. Again, the only adverse consequence is that the member may receive a general discharge instead of an honorable discharge, a distinction that has lost its value.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

the recruit is obligated by a potentially enforceable enlistment contract to serve for a specified period of time.

The military member is subject to military discipline and to the Uniform Code of Military Justice, meaning they must obey all lawful orders. On rare occasions, this may mean being deployed for significant periods of time without notice and the possible cancellation of individual or family plans. More typically, it means planned periods of family separation.

Frequent moves are a fact of life in the military, with planned rotations about every three years. The armed forces of the United States are stationed all over the world and on all of its oceans. The typical Service member considers some of these locations very interesting and desirable assignments, but others are not. Members are assigned to positions throughout the world through a process that might be described as “share the pain, share the gain.” Typically, this means that the member can anticipate that relatively onerous assignments will be followed by relatively desirable assignments, as judged by the typical member.

For most permanent assignments, the member may choose to bring his or her family. The Service, according to schedules of coverage and allowances, reimburses moving expenses for the member and his or her family. Moreover, there is an infrastructure at most military locations to support the member’s family. Some types of assignments, however, are designated as “unaccompanied.” The member’s family does not accompany the member to the location. These assignments are typically to onerous locations or locations of higher risk. Unaccompanied tours are typically of shorter duration.

The frequency of moves and the overseas assignments present hardships, primarily to married members or members with dependents. First, frequent moves make it difficult for the member’s spouse to pursue certain types of careers. Second, at some locations, there are very limited opportunities for any spouse employment.3 Third, members with school age children can find the frequency of moves disruptive to their education. However, the recruit typically has no dependents. The opportunity to be stationed overseas or even in other parts of the United States in the first term of service may be seen more as an opportunity for travel than a hardship.

Members in all of the military Services who are assigned to combat or combat support units—which includes most initial duty assignments for recruits—will be subject to deployments. Deployments occur when the

3  

In many countries overseas, Status of Forces (SOF) agreements limit the opportunity to work in the local civilian economy. The only opportunities for spouses are positions on the military base.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

unit leaves its permanent station for a period of time (ranging from several days to many months) for an operational or training mission. During periods of deployment, the member is separated from his or her dependents. In the Navy, deployments typically mean time at sea. In the other Services, humanitarian, peacekeeping, and similar missions are typical deployments.4

Working conditions may be onerous or unpleasant, depending on the job, the assignment, and the member’s tastes, but they may also be quite pleasant. On sea duty, sailors work and live on a ship for 180 days at a time. Accommodations aboard ship are not to everyone’s taste, especially for junior enlisted members.

Military members may be physically at risk from two sources. First, some types of military jobs are inherently risky. Any job that puts one in constant proximity to live ordnance is potentially risky. Jobs requiring sailors to be on the deck of a carrier during launch and recovery operations, operation of high-performance aircraft, airborne operations, diving, and demolition are a few examples. Second, all members are subject to being deployed to hostile fire areas—to be put in harm’s way—regardless of their particular jobs. Some units, particularly combat and combat support units, and some types of jobs are more at risk than others.

In principle, active-duty members are “on call” 24 hours per day. Actual hours of work will vary by the nature of the job or skill, the current assignment or duty station, and factors that may be affecting the command at any particular time. It is not unusual for sailors on board ship, for example, to work 16 hours per day. Similarly, soldiers and airmen may work equally long hours in preparing for a deployment, for example. However, normal duty hours under typical circumstances will require a workweek not unlike that in the civilian sector. Unlike the civilian sector, however, members will be called on to take rotations for extra duty, such as watch standing. There is no overtime pay.

Military Compensation System

Because recruits enter voluntarily, rather than through conscription, pay and benefits must remain competitive with alternatives, if the Services are to attract and retain required numbers of qualified personnel. The military compensation system for active-duty members consists of a complex array of basic pay, nontaxable allowances, special and incentives pays, deferred compensation, and in-kind benefits. We briefly review its major elements below.

4  

For example, most soldiers stationed in Bosnia are actually deployed from bases in Germany.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×
Current Cash Compensation

Basic pay is the major element of military compensation. Monthly basic pay is a function of the member’s rank or pay grade and years of service. The enlisted pay table in effect as of January 1, 2001, is shown in Table 5-1. Typically, recruits enter at the lowest pay grade, E-1. However, if they have some college or are highly qualified and are entering certain occupational specialties, they may enter at an advanced pay grade, typically E-2 or E-3.

Members progress through the pay table in two ways: length of service or promotion. As they gain longevity, pay increases in the ranges of the pay table. In addition, members may be promoted. Typically, promotions through E-3 are relatively automatic as long as the member is making satisfactory progress. From E-4 through E-9, promotions become increasingly competitive. Typically, the member must reach noncommissioned officer status (E-4) to reenlist beyond the first term of service. Members who remain competitive for promotions will reach senior noncommissioned officer (NCO) or chief petty officer status at about their 12th year of service.

In addition to basic pay, all members receive either housing and food in-kind, or a tax-free allowance for housing (basic allowance for housing or BAH) and a tax-free allowance for food (basic allowance for subsistence or BAS). These allowances vary by pay grade and, unlike the civilian sector, by dependency status. Members with dependents receive higher allowances than those without dependents. In addition, BAH varies by location, reflecting geographic variation in rental prices. BAH rates reflect the cost of renting standardized housing types across different geographic locations. Table 5-2 shows current BAH rates for enlisted members for Virginia.

BAH is substantial—about 33 percent of basic pay. Moreover, it is not subject to federal or state income tax, increasing its value by 15 percent or more for most enlisted members. Unmarried junior enlisted members (E-4 and below) typically live in on-base housing, however, and receive rations in-kind.

Regular military compensation (RMC) is defined as the sum of basic pay, BAS, and BAH (including the tax advantage on each). It is the most frequent way that military cash compensation is defined.

All members are paid from the common basic pay table, regardless of occupation. Similarly, allowances vary only by rank, dependency status, and location. Yet the training and experience offered in some military occupations is much more valuable in the civilian sector than that offered in other occupations. Hence, other things being equal, it is more difficult to retain personnel in some occupations than in others.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

TABLE 5-1 Monthly Basic Pay Table for Enlisted Members (effective 1 January 2001)

 

Years of Service

GRADE

<2

2

3

4

6

8

10

12

E-9

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$3,126.90

$3,197.40

E-8

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2,622.00

2,697.90

2,768.40

E-7

1,831.20

1,999.20

2,075.10

2,149.80

2,227.20

2,303.10

2,379.00

2,454.90

E-6

1,575.00

1,740.30

1,817.40

1,891.80

1,969.50

2,046.00

2,122.80

2,196.90

E-5

1,381.80

1,549.20

1,623.90

1,701.00

1,777.80

1,855.80

1,930.50

2,007.90

E-4

1,288.80

1,423.80

1,500.60

1,576.20

1,653.00

1,653.00

1,653.00

1,653.00

E-3

1,214.70

1,307.10

1,383.60

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

E-2

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

E-1>4

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

E-1<4

964.80

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 

Years of Service

GRADE

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

E-9

 

$3,287.10

$3,392.40

$3,498.00

$3,601.80

$3,742.80

$3,882.60

$4,060.80

E-8

2,853.30

2,945.10

3,041.10

3,138.00

3,278.10

3,417.30

3,612.60

E-7

2,529.60

2,607.00

2,683.80

2,758.80

2,890.80

3,034.50

3,250.50

E-6

2,272.50

2,327.70

2,367.90

2,367.90

2,370.30

2,370.30

2,370.30

E-5

2,007.90

2,007.90

2,007.90

2,007.90

2,007.90

2,007.90

2,007.90

E-4

1,653.00

1,653.00

1,653.00

1,653.00

1,653.00

1,653.00

1,653.00

E-3

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

1,385.40

E-2

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

1,169.10

E-1>4

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

1,042.80

E-1<4

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

SOURCE: Available: <http://www.military.com>.

NOTE: Basic pay for 0–7 and above is limited to $11,141.70, Level III of the Executive Schedule. Basic pay for 0–6 and below is limited to $9,800.10, Level V of the Executive Schedule.

An efficient compensation system recognizes differences in civilian opportunities through pay differentials by occupation. Although all enlisted occupational specialties are paid from a common pay table, there are two ways in which pay differentiation is achieved. First, some occupational specialties have more rapid rates of promotion than others. This means that personnel in these occupations will receive greater compensation. These tend to be occupations requiring technical skills that are highly transferable to civilian employment. Moreover, because the promotion system in the Services tends to be at least partially driven by vacant posi-

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

TABLE 5-2 Enlisted Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) Rates: Virginia

 

GRADE

Location

E2

E3

E4

E5

E6

E7

E8

E9

Without Dependents

Woodbridge

$744

$744

$744

$793

$825

$874

$925

$930

Newport News

559

559

559

580

596

636

705

750

Norfolk

626

626

626

645

658

683

733

773

Fort Lee

529

529

529

537

546

580

624

654

Richmond

506

506

506

558

592

649

713

724

With Dependents

Woodbridge

$817

$817

$858

$922

$938

$1,005

$1,078

$1,150

Newport News

590

590

624

676

822

871

925

997

Norfolk

654

654

675

707

837

901

972

1,044

Fort Lee

541

541

569

613

669

709

763

853

Richmond

583

583

631

705

742

768

797

877

 

SOURCE: Available: <http://www.military.com>.

tions, it serves as a natural equilibrating mechanism. Low retention increases vacancies, which make promotions more rapid, and increases pay, which increases retention.

The second source of pay differentiation is “special and incentive pays.” The purpose of these pays are to compensate for risks, onerous conditions, or responsibilities associated with particular occupational specialties or assignments and to increase retention in areas where there are, or would otherwise be, shortages. Special and incentive pays are the primary way in which pay differentials are introduced. They can be targeted to occupations and experience levels for which increased retention is needed the most. Because an across-the-board pay raise is very expensive,5 they tend to be an efficient solution to recruiting and retention problems that are skill-specific. For example, the Services may offer enlistment bonuses of $5,000 to $8,000 to qualified recruits in selected occupational specialties.

Special and incentive pays constitute only a small portion of the total cash compensation package. Although they are especially effective in targeting and alleviating specific recruiting and retention problems, because they are such a small proportion of total compensation, their influence is limited by their relatively modest proportion of total compensation. Figure 5-2 shows the distribution of cash compensation (including deferred retirement pay) for enlisted personnel.

5  

A 1 percent increase in basic pay across the board costs about $400,000,000 per year.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

FIGURE 5-2 Distribution of cash compensation: Enlisted personnel.

SOURCE: Paul F. Hogan and Pat Mackin, Briefing to the Ninth Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation Working Group, November, 2000.

NOTE: BAH = Basic Allowance for Housing; BAS = Basic Allowance for Subsistence; SS = Social Security; S&I = Special and Incentive Pay.

The military retirement system is a major component of total compensation. Those members who entered prior to 1980 are eligible to receive 50 percent of basic pay at the time of retirement if they retire with 20 years of service, rising linearly to 75 percent of basic pay with 30 years of service. Those who entered between 1980 and 1986 may retire under similar conditions, except that their annuity is based on an average of their highest three years of pay. Finally, those who entered after 1986 now have a choice to either (1) receive the same annuity as those who entered between 1980 and 1986 or (2) accept a $30,000 lump sum at 15 years of service and receive 40 percent of an average of their three highest years of pay at 20 years of service, rising linearly to 75 percent at 30 years of service.

The military retirement system is relatively generous. It has a dominant effect on retention after the second term of service. However, because of the “cliff” vesting of the current system—the member receives nothing unless he or she stays through 20 years of service—it is not a major factor in recruiting.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×
Benefits

In addition to housing and subsistence allowances, which may be provided either as cash or an in-kind allowance, there are numerous other in-kind benefits of military service.

Military members themselves receive medical and dental benefits at no cost from military treatment facilities. Dependents receive medical benefits through TRICARE, which offers managed care and fee-for-service (CHAMPUS) plans. The out-of-pocket costs are generally minimal and the overall benefits are competitive with plans offered by civilian employers.

The Montgomery GI Bill, which is offered to all recruits, provides resources for college, primarily to those who have left active duty service. The recruit must agree to have $100 per month deducted from pay for 12 months. In return, the member receives about $20,000 for college over a 36-month enrollment period. In addition, the Service may supplement this amount for qualified recruits in selected occupational specialties. The Army, through the Army College Fund, adds in excess of $30,000 to the benefits for qualified recruits who enlist in selected hard-to-fill occupational specialties. The Navy and the Marine Corps also offer additional education benefits, but on a smaller scale than the Army.

Recently, there have been numerous legislative proposals in both the House and the Senate to enhance the basic benefit of the Montgomery GI Bill and to add new features, such as the ability of the member to transfer all, or a portion, of the benefit for use by dependents. However, no major changes have been enacted as of this writing.

All of the Services offer a tuition assistance program for members who take college courses while on active duty. Typically, this program will reimburse 75 percent of the cost of college credit hours taken by members while on active duty.

In addition, there are numerous other benefits of military service. These include access to recreational facilities ranging from gymnasiums and bowling alleys to the opportunity to fly free on a space-available basis on military flights. Members also receive all of the benefits associated with veteran status, including the ability to obtain a VA mortgage while on active duty.

Finally, many military members serving in particular occupations receive training and experience that is transferable to the civilian sector. While not a benefit in the traditional sense, this training and experience are valued highly in the civilian labor market. The evidence in the research literature is consistent with intuition (e.g., Stafford, 1991; Goldberg and Warner, 1987). On one hand, in occupations that require technical skills and other occupations, such as health care, with a clear counterpart

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

in the civilian sector, military training and experience are about as valuable as training and experience in the occupation in the civilian sector. The advantage to the military members is that they receive this training at no cost to themselves while earning full pay on active duty.6 On the other hand, in the traditional combat arms occupational specialties, as well as in other occupations that are relatively military-specific, training and experience have a positive effect on potential civilian earnings, but not as large an effect as the equivalent amount of civilian labor market experience.

Competitiveness of Military Compensation and Benefits7

The adequacy of the military compensation package is ultimately determined by its ability to attract and retain sufficient qualified staff to maintain readiness levels. Generally, to do this, military pay must at least compensate members for what they could be earning in the civilian sector, given their actual level of education. Moreover, recruiting requires that some proportion of high school graduates who are in the upper half of the distribution nationally on an intellectual qualification test choose to enter the military rather than college. Arguably, because these potential recruits could have gone to college, military pay must compensate them for what they could have earned in the civilian sector, had they gone to college. Because not all would have completed college, at a minimum it should compensate members for what they could have earned with “some college.” Indeed, as reported in the Department of Defense (DoD) Personnel Survey for 1999, over half of enlisted personnel and 80 percent of enlisted members with more than 20 years of service report that they have completed at least one year of college (see Asch et al., 2001).

Figure 5-3 compares average enlisted regular military compensation (RMC) to the earnings of civilians with some college. Recall that RMC includes basic pay, allowance for subsistence, the housing allowance, and the tax advantage on the allowances. RMC is the standard measure of military cash pay to compare with civilian cash earnings. Average RMC is about at the same level as median earnings reported by those with some college and comparable experience and below average earnings for that group. Average RMC is significantly below those at the 70th percentile of

6  

Stafford (1991) and Goldberg and Warner (1987) obtain similar results in comparing the effects of military and civilian experience on civilian earnings. A limitation is the age of the studies and that they do not encompass the major information technology revolution of the 1990s.

7  

Much in this section draws from the information provided in Asch et al. (2001).

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

FIGURE 5-3 July 2000 enlisted pay (regular military compensation or RMC) compared with predicted year 2000 earnings of males with some college (SC).

SOURCE: Asch et al. (2001).

civilian earnings for those with some college. Because most military members are in the upper half of the intelligence distribution, as measured by the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT), those in the 70th percentile of civilian earnings are arguably the most relevant comparison group.

Many who enlist could have entered a four-year college and completed an undergraduate degree. Their earnings in the enlisted force would be significantly below the average earnings of college graduates. Figure 5-4 compares average RMC, projected to FY 2005 to average earnings in the civilian sector, at various levels of education, also projected to FY 2005 (Hogan and Mackin, 2000). Note that the difference in earnings between college graduates and high school graduates is quite large, as is the difference between college graduates and those with some college. The returns from completing four years of college appear to be quite substantial. Enlisted pay, as measured by average RMC, does not appear to be competitive with the pay of college graduates.

These pay comparisons suggest that if the Services are competing with the college market, recruiting will become more difficult, given the apparent earnings premium enjoyed by college graduates. Since the mid-1980s, the Services have been relatively successful in recruiting. It is only in recent years, since about FY 1997, that recruiting has become difficult again.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

FIGURE 5-4 Average civilian earnings and average FY 2005 enlisted (regular military compensation or RMC) by years of experience.

SOURCE: Asch et al. (2001).

Recruiting success is typically measured not simply by numbers, but by the proportions of recruits who are highly qualified. We present two measures: the proportion of recruits who are high school diploma graduates and the proportion who are high school diploma graduates and also score in the top half of the AFQT. Data on these factors are presented in Chapter 4, this volume. The percentage of high school diploma graduates recruited by the Services has consistently exceeded about 90 percent since about FY 1984, with only the Navy falling below that level, and then only for a few years. However, while the percentage had exceeded 90 percent for the first half of the 1990s, it has fallen to 90 percent or near that for all the Services except the Air Force since about FY 1996. Similarly, while the percentage of highly qualified recruits exceeded 60 percent for each of the Services in the first half of the 1990s, the trend has been downward for all the Services since about FY 1996 and has fallen below 60 percent for the Army and Navy.

While the Services have experienced significant recruiting difficulties since about FY 1996, two related points are important to consider. First, recruiting results were extraordinarily good, as measured by the percentage of highly qualified recruits, in the first half of the 1990s. Hence, the poorer results of the second half of the decade are in comparison to the

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

best recruiting results in the modern volunteer force period. Much of the success of the early 1990s was due simply to the lower demand for recruits during the post-cold war drawdown of forces. Second, compared with the 1970s and most of the 1980s, the results in the second half of the 1990s through FY 2000 are relatively good.

Incentives and Resources Affecting Recruiting

The military environment, military compensation, and in-kind benefits all affect the desirability of enlisting. In addition, the Services and DoD allocate resources directly to improve recruiting. The largest share of the recruiting budget is for military recruiters—the recruiting sales force. In addition, the Services provide targeted incentives to recruits with certain qualifications who enlist in selected occupational specialties. These include enlistment bonuses, which can be as high as $8,000 and are paid on successful completion of initial skill training, and supplements to the Montgomery GI Bill, which can be as much as $30,000. Finally, the Services spend resources on advertising, both to inform potential recruits about opportunities in the military and to convince them to enlist.

The state of the economy has an important effect on the supply of recruits. When the economy is strong, with low unemployment, recruiting becomes more difficult. More recruiting resources are required to achieve a given recruiting goal. Similarly, during economic downturns, recruiting becomes somewhat easier. Fewer resources are required to achieve a given recruiting goal.

The effect of recruiting resources on enlistments is sometimes summarized in a measure called an “elasticity.” In the context of recruiting, elasticity indicates the percentage increase in recruits one can expect when a particular recruiting resource or factor increases by 10 percent. If the elasticity of enlistments with respect to recruiters is 0.5, for example, a 10 percent increase in recruiters would result in a 5 percent increase in enlistments.

In Table 5-3, we summarize the range of elasticities found in the recent econometric literature on military recruiting (e.g., Hogan and Dall, 1996; Hogan et al., 1998; Murray and McDonald, 1999; Warner et al., 1998). Although there has not been a large number of studies on recruiting in the 1990s, these studies use methods that build on and, in many cases, improve on the more numerous studies of the 1970s and early 1980s. In almost all cases, the elasticity is measured with respect to highly qualified recruits, a group that is in demand at the margin. The estimates vary by Service, time period of the data, and, in some cases, methods used to estimate effects. The estimated elasticities are statistical estimates ob-

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

TABLE 5-3 Elasticities of Enlistments with Respect to Various Recruiting Resources

 

Factor

 

Army

Navy

Source

Recruiters

0.51

0.57

W

0.42

0.23

H/M/H

0.6

0.53

M/M

 

0.2–0.32

 

College Fund

0.49

0.22

W

0.01

 

M/M

Enlistment Bonus

0.13

0.03

W

0.003

 

M/M

Advertising-Total

0.319

0.067

W

Advertising-TV

0.089

0.041

W

 

0.02–0.08

H/D

Pay

1

1.1

 

 

0.3–0.8

H/D

Unemployment Rate

0.14

0.11

H/M/H

0.16

 

M/M

0.22

0.29

W

 

0.1–0.22

H/D

NOTE: W = Warner (2001). H/M/H = Hogan, Mehay, and Hughes (1998). M/M = Murray and McDonald (1999). H/D = Hogan and Dall (1996).

tained by treating the observed variation in recruiting results and resources as a natural experiment.

An elasticity provides a measure of the importance of the factor on recruiting. However, it is not a cost-benefit analysis. Advertising, for example, has a small elasticity, but the advertising budget itself is small compared with the budget for recruiters. Hence, it is not correct to judge cost-effectiveness of the resource by the elasticity.8Table 5-4 provides an estimate of the costs associated with recruiting one additional highly qualified recruit using various incentives and methods (Warner, 2001; Warner et al., 2001). The marginal cost estimates of the major recruiting resources—recruiters, education benefits, enlistment bonuses, and advertising—are generally within a few thousands of dollars of each other. This is what one would expect if all the resources are being used reasonably efficiently.

8  

For example, a key variable in advertising effectiveness is the message strategy, which is not accounted for in econometric models.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

TABLE 5-4 Marginal Cost Estimates of Major Recruiting Resources (in thousands)

 

Service

Factor

Army

Navy

Air Force

Marine Corps

Pay

$32.0

$30.0

$40.8

$59.0

Recruiters

$13.2

$8.2

$3.3

$9.3

Educational benefits

$7.4

$12.0

Enlistment bonuses

$12.0

 

Advertising-Total

$9–11.0

$7–8.0

Advertising-TV

$7.0–9.3

$7.3

Advertising-non-TV

$3.8–8.4

$2.7–4.7

 

SOURCE: Warner et al. (2001).

The table provides a measure of the effect of various resources (and environmental factors) on recruiting. Table 5-5 provides an indication of the budgets and changes in these budgets over time. Note that military pay, the largest single budget item, is largely pay and allowances for recruiters. Since about FY 1997, recruiting resources have increased significantly, particularly for the Army (see Figures 5-5 and 5-6).

Econometric models of enlistment supply, such as those of Warner et al. (2001), can provide insights into an important question: Given the estimated effects of recruiting resources and the economy on enlistment supply, can changes in these resources and changes in the economy explain the decline in enlistments in the late 1990s, or is the decline due to

TABLE 5-5 FY 2001 Recruiting Budget (in millions)

 

Army

Navy

Air Force

Marine Corps

DoD

College funds (NCF)

$101.62

$28.18

 

$29.42

$159.22

Enlistment bonuses

$147.40

$105.12

$116.34

$7.44

$376.30

Loan repayment

$32.89

$0.10

$6.00

$38.99

Military pay

$409.60

$252.05

$96.04

$119.87

$877.57

Civilian pay

$47.57

$24.55

$8.76

$7.77

$88.65

Advertising

$102.04

$66.39

$47.86

$38.65

$254.94

Recruiter support

$225.23

$70.31

$35.21

$43.01

$373.75

Total

$1,066.35

$546.70

$310.21

$246.16

$2,169.42

 

SOURCE: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (2001).

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

FIGURE 5-5 FY 2001 distribution of DoD recruiting resources.

SOURCE: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (2001).

FIGURE 5-6 Recruiting resources: FY 1989–FY 2001.

SOURCE: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (2001).

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

other, as yet unidentified, factors? Warner et al. accounted for changes in the economy, resources, and the effectiveness of resources. Based on their analyses, Warner and his colleagues conclude the following:

We do not believe that the downward trend in high-quality enlistment since 1993 can be attributed to shifts from the past in the way recruiting responds to economic factors (pay and unemployment) and it is not explained by diminished effectiveness of recruiting resources. Specifically, we do not find that the responsiveness of enlistment to either recruiters or advertising has declined. Positively, we also find that recruiting is responsive to educational benefits and enlistment bonuses. However, the effectiveness of Army College Fund benefits may have declined due to a large expansion in Army enlistment bonuses since FY 1997. Expansion in college attendance accounts for some of the decline in high-quality recruiting but is not the end of the story. There remains a significant negative residual component to recruiting that appears to be the result of a decline in youth tastes for military service. Understanding the reasons for the decline in youth tastes for service, and policy options for responding to it, would be an important avenue for future research.

In particular, Warner and his colleagues note that the unexplained portion of the decline in highly qualified recruits (the portion of the decline that cannot be explained by changes in resources, the economy, or the effects of resources and the economy on enlistments) tracks the decline in youth propensity as measured by the Youth Attitude Tracking Survey (YATS). This is illustrated in Figure 5-7.

Possible sources for youth propensity and its changes over time that are not typically captured in econometric models are altruistic motives to enlist. One form of these motivations, patriotism, is briefly discussed in the next section.

Patriotism and Higher Purpose

We have discussed the financial rewards of military service, in-kind benefits, and the hardships and risks associated with military life. One aspect of military service that differs from most civilian jobs is that there is a higher purpose to military service than simply receiving pay and benefits in return for work and the acceptance of hardships. Patriotism and selfless service to one’s country provide a potentially strong motivation to enlist (as discussed in Chapters 7 and 8, this volume). While such sentiments cannot fully compensate for noncompetitive pay and unpleasant working conditions, they do provide a foundation for recruiting and retaining motivated staff that is generally unavailable to civilian-sector employers. Moreover, as suggested in the previous section, changes in

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

FIGURE 5-7 Normalized male YATS propensity and unexplained recruiting trend.

SOURCE: Warner (2001).

more altruistic motivations for service can have an important influence on recruiting.

Summary

Enlistment in the armed forces is one of three major options eligible youth have upon completion of high school. The armed forces offer a lifestyle that is very different from the one most recent high school graduates experience in college or in civilian employment. Typically, the individual leaves his or her hometown and is subject to military orders and discipline. These orders may, in fact, place the individual in harm’s way.

To attract recruits, the armed forces offer a complex but generally competitive system of pay, allowances, bonuses, and benefits to compete with civilian alternatives. In addition, they use a reasonably efficient mix of various recruiting resources, including bonuses, advertising, and recruiters. Finally, the rate at which youth continue to go to college has

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

grown over time.9 The armed forces offers postservice education benefits (in the form of the Montgomery GI Bill and augmentations to it) to attract those recruits who also have college aspirations.

Recruiting has become increasingly difficult since the second half of the 1990s. This was due, at least in part, to an improving economy through 2000 and to a decline in recruiting resources in the mid-1990s. However, while these factors can explain some of the decline, a portion remains unexplained. It is unclear whether this represents a change in tastes or preferences for military service on the part of American youth or is due to other factors that simply are not captured in econometric equations. Success in the recruiting market now and in the future will require that compensation and benefits remain competitive with those offered in the civilian sector, that other recruiting resources be applied efficiently and in proportion to the recruiting mission, and that innovative ways to combine military service with the pursuit of higher education are offered. Finally, military service offers youth a higher purpose, in the form of duty to country, service to others, and self-sacrifice, that is rare in other alternatives. The armed forces should not neglect this aspect of military service in its recruiting efforts.

THE EMPLOYMENT ALTERNATIVE

Employment in the civilian sector is a major source of competition to the military services. Although a small proportion of the civilian labor force works in the public sector and is employed by a governmental organization, a far greater proportion is employed by private industry. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2002b) estimates that 212 million people age 16 and older make up the civilian noninstitutionalized population; in contrast, the U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000b) reported 17 million people employed by federal, state, and local governments. Because the number of job opportunities is far greater in the private sector, our discussion primarily focuses on individuals employed in the private sector. When appropriate, examples from the public sector are included.

In general, the term “civilian” in this section refers to people employed in nonmilitary settings, while “private” and “public” sector refer to private industry or government employment, respectively. This section also provides brief descriptions of the common practices used in the private-sector labor market and compares employment opportunities in private industry to opportunities in the military at general levels. We provide

9  

As we explore more completely in the section on college as an alternative below, it becomes apparent that this effect may be due in part to an increase in the relative earnings of college graduates.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

general information regarding entry-level private-sector employment, a description of the current labor market, the perceived benefits and liabilities associated with employment in private industry, and comparisons of various aspects of military service and private-sector employment.

Comparing the private-sector employment option to military service is difficult because of the many variations in civilian employment processes and opportunities. Differences among entrance and hiring practices, compensation strategies, benefit programs, education and training options, and working conditions vary across different industries and organizations. Moreover, such variables as the size of the organization, industry type, job family, presence or absence of labor unions, and geographical location also affect the civilian labor market. Even when the job or type of work is held constant, opportunities in private-sector employment are highly varied. While the military Services offer similar benefits and rewards for the same job level, the civilian sector may offer different compensation and benefits for the same job depending on the organization, industry, location, etc.

It is important to remember that slightly more than half of Americans work in companies with fewer than 500 employees and almost 20 percent work in firms with fewer than 20 employees. The jobs and associated opportunities in these smaller firms may be significantly different from those in larger firms. While the military may be more like the largest companies, only 3,316 of the 5,541,918 firms in the United States had over 2,500 employees (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1999) and approximately 37 million of the 105 million U.S. employed work for these firms.

Yet another difficulty in comparing occupations across civilian and military settings is defining what jobs are similar across those settings and what jobs are different. For example, while the military may not have Internal Revenue Service (IRS) agents, the military does have personnel who engage in audit functions similar to the duties that might be performed by an IRS agent. Similarly, the military may lack a merger and acquisitions specialist, found in some large organizations, but it does have individuals who use similar skills to analyze situations and organizations. Thus, questions about the degrees of similarity in jobs and tasks as well as environment must be asked if meaningful comparisons are to be made.

Further complicating a comparison of civilian opportunities in the private sector and military opportunities are the continuous changes in the external contexts of work (e.g., markets, technology, and workforce demographics), the organizational contexts of work (e.g., organizational restructuring and changing employment relationships), and the structure and content of work (National Research Council, 1999). The National Research Council report The Changing Nature of Work noted many changes

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

that affect the actual content of a job. For example, the increasing use of teams has flattened organizational hierarchies, and teams are often given greater discretion over how work is performed. The report also pointed out that few trends were universal and cited as an example decreasing discretion in some jobs in the service and manufacturing sectors, in which rational processes and information systems are used to control the work.

In sum, there is enormous variability in processes and opportunities both across and within industries, organizations, and jobs. Considering the variability mentioned above, it is impractical to try to describe and compare all possible variations in organizational processes and employment options. Much of the research in these areas is limited to private-sector market research, general polls, and organizational surveys (e.g., American Management Association, 2001; Society for Human Resource Management, 2000). Moreover, the empirical literature on civilian employment is not scientifically sound or readily available. However, when available, we cite relevant sources of information on employment in the civilian sector (e.g., National Research Council, 1999; Office of Management and Budget, 1997; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1999a, 2001, 2002a, 2002b).

Demographic Trends: Who Chooses Employment?

Of the 212 million people in the civilian population in 2001 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002b), over two-thirds (142 million or 70 percent) participated in the civilian labor force. Participation in the labor force varied little among race and ethnic groups. However, participation was higher for men than for women; specifically 74 percent of males age 16 and over participated in the labor force compared with 60 percent of females.

About half of all youth ages 16 to 19 participated in the civilian labor force in 2001 (approximately half male and half female; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002b). A majority (77 percent) of those ages 20–24 participated in the labor force (82 percent male and 73 percent female).

The labor force is projected to increase by 17 million to 155 million people in 2008, a 12 percent increase from 1998 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1999b). Among race-ethnic groups, participation rates for Asians and Hispanics are projected to grow the most compared with blacks and non-Hispanic whites. The rate of participation for men in the labor force is expected to increase, but at a slower pace than in the previous decade. For women, the participation rate will surpass that of men. Older workers ages 45–64 are expected to show the highest growth (spurred by the baby boom generation of workers), but the youth population is also projected

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

to increase over the next several years, leading to rapid growth in the youth labor force.

Participation in the labor force typically increases with level of educational attainment (Table 5-6). In 2001, college graduates (25 and older) participated in the labor force at the highest rates (79 percent) compared with high school graduates (64 percent) and persons who did not complete high school (44 percent). The participation rate for male college graduates was 85 percent compared with 73 percent for female college graduates (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002b). For male and female high school graduates, participation rates were 74 and 56 percent, respectively. Blacks and whites with a high school degree participated in the labor force at lower rates (69 percent and 64 percent, respectively) compared with Hispanic graduates (74 percent).

Together, these data indicate that a number of high school graduates do not participate in the civilian labor force immediately after graduation or in the years thereafter. Instead, they may potentially choose among other options such as time off, postsecondary education, or military service.

Employment Opportunities in the Private Sector: An Overview

The array of jobs in the private sector can be classified into different categories. This overview describes the systems used to classify different occupations and presents a simple analysis of jobs found in the military versus the civilian sector. The National Research Council (1999:165) provides a detailed discussion of job classification systems and defined occupational analysis as “the tools and methods used to describe and label work, positions, jobs, and occupations”. The report reviewed three kinds of systems: (1) descriptive/analytic systems, (2) category and enumerative systems, and (3) systems that combine the two. Of the common enumerative systems, the most important is the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system, which is intended to be the primary occupational category system used by federal agencies (Office of Management and Budget, 1997), including the Census Bureau for the 2000 census and the Department of Labor for the Occupational Information Network or O*NET project.

A combination of the descriptive and enumerative approaches is embodied in the O*NET. O*NET was developed by the U.S. Department of Labor to provide employers, job seekers, career counselors, government workers, occupational analysts, researchers, and students computerized access to the database of occupational information. O*NET occupational profiles provide an overview based on 445 variables, such as worker characteristics, worker requirements, experience requirements, occupation

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

TABLE 5-6 Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population 25 Years and Over by Educational Attainment, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 2001 (in thousands)

Household Data Annual Averages Educational Attainment

Total

Men

Women

White

Black

Hispanic Origin

Total

 

Civilian noninstitutional population

176,839

84,294

92,546

148,021

20,333

17,850

Percentage in the civilian labor force

67.4

75.9

59.7

67.1

68.2

69.7

Less than a high school diploma

 

Civilian noninstitutional population

27,790

13,195

14,595

22,250

4,241

7,736

Percentage in the civilian labor force

43.6

55.6

32.7

44.2

40.0

59.4

High school graduates, no college

 

Civilian noninstitutional population

57,367

26,542

30,825

48,277

7,094

4,911

Percentage in the civilian labor force

64.4

74.4

55.8

63.6

69.2

73.9

Some college, no degree

 

Civilian noninstitutional population

30,529

14,300

16,229

25,441

3,968

2,281

Percentage in the civilian labor force

71.9

78.9

65.8

70.8

78.0

80.2

College graduates

 

Civilian noninstitutional population

46,601

24,002

22,599

39,754

3,411

2,005

Percentage in the civilian labor force

79.0

84.4

73.3

78.7

83.7

82.1

 

SOURCE: Data from Table 7, Employment Status of the Civilian Noninstitutional Population 25 Years and Over by Educational Attainment, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, 2001 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002b).

requirements, occupation characteristics, and specific occupational information. Each of these is further broken down into meaningful categories. Detailed information about employment opportunities referenced in the O*NET are available at www.onetcenter.org.

When comparing private-sector jobs and military positions, one finds

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

that not all military jobs are represented in the civilian sector and not all civilian jobs are found in the military. For example, military jobs related to warfare, such as armored assault vehicle crew members, artillery and missile crew members, and infantry, are not found among civilian jobs; civilian jobs like teaching the disabled are not found in the military. In the SOC system, which is linked to O*NET, 1 of the 23 major occupational groups contains occupations specific to the military. The implication of this observation, consistent with the literature briefly reviewed in the previous section on the value of military experience in the civilian sector, is that military service for the purpose of job training that will enhance the chance of successful employment in a civilian position may not be as valuable if the military assignment is in a field that does not have a civilian counterpart.

However, also consistent with the literature, many employers recognize that military service builds many job-related skills even when the actual work performed is not related to the civilian job. Basic skills like teamwork, following directions, and record keeping may be common to most jobs regardless of the nature of the work or the environment in which it is performed.

Many jobs are found in both the military and the private sector. Of the other 22 SOC major groups, all have a military counterpart in some form. The large number of jobs that are found in both the military and the civilian job market indicates that military service may provide job-specific training in many occupations that will facilitate later civilian employment.

The extent to which military and private-sector jobs overlap is difficult to assess without comparing specific jobs in a military service and in a particular organization. However, at a more macro level, comparisons have been made. The current military career guides, available at www.todaysmilitary.com, suggest about an 88 percent overlap of jobs based on analyses from the Defense Manpower Data Center (Today’s Military, 2001). These are more likely to be jobs in health care, service and administration, and electrical and machine equipment repair (Gribben, 2001). However, the distribution of personnel in military occupational areas shown in Table 2-5 indicates that almost 17 percent of personnel were in infantry alone in 2000, an occupation with no direct counterpart in the civilian sector. Furthermore, the Army and the Marine Corps have more personnel assigned to infantry positions.

Occupational Trends

Gribben (2001) did an analysis of occupational trends in the civilian sector and in the military; she reported noticeable shifts in the occupa-

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

FIGURE 5-8 Civilian industry trends, FY 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2001).

tional mix of jobs in civilian employment. Between 1975 and 2000, the proportion of jobs in the service industry grew from 18 to 31 percent of all civilian positions, while manufacturing jobs decreased from 24 to 14 percent of all positions (see Figure 5-8; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2001). Government employment also decreased somewhat during the same time period, from more than 19 percent in 1975 to less than 16 percent in 2000. Other industries, such as construction, retail trade, and finance, accounted for about 30 percent of all jobs. These industries did not show appreciable changes in their proportion of the labor market during this time period.

Job growth during the 10-year period 1998–2008 is expected to continue particularly for service employees and professional specialty occupations (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1999a). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the following as the 10 fastest-growing occupations for 1998–2008:

  • Computer engineers

  • Computer support specialists

  • Systems analysts

  • Database administrators

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×
  • Paralegals and legal assistants

  • Personal care and home health aides

  • Medical assistants

  • Social and human service assistants

  • Physician assistants.

Demand for Workers

Although there is some military-civilian overlap in high-growth occupations (e.g., health care, service, administration, equipment operation and repair), current and projected trends in the civilian occupational distribution do not precisely mirror the trends in military distributions. Moreover, occupational mix requirements and the demand for workers in different occupations vary between the civilian and military sectors. In the military during the past 25 years, there has been a slight trend toward more technical occupations, such as electronic equipment repair, and communication and intelligence (Gribben, 2001). Service and supply handlers and functional support and administration specialists play a smaller role in the mix of occupations. During the period FY 1976–2000, there was a tremendous need for electrical and mechanical equipment repair specialists in the military along with a large contingent of infantry and related positions.

Military and civilian jobs are categorized by the SOC system. Civilian labor market opportunities depend on the mix of available jobs and demand for specific occupational areas. Though occupational trends have shown significant shifts in certain areas in civilian employment (particularly professional and service occupations), changes have been smaller and more gradual in the military. We have described the opportunities available in the civilian sector. Next, we turn to entry into occupations in each sector and compare the different selection processes and standards.

Labor Market Access

As described earlier in this chapter, the military has clearly defined processes and standards for entry into each service. In contrast, processes and standards in the private sector vary across companies and industries. For example, some employers have no defined processes or standards at all; the employer decides how to hire when a position becomes available and an applicant appears and may use selection methods with little relationship to the requirements of the job (e.g., likeability of candidate in the interview). Such employers may change hiring practices for different jobs and even for candidates for the same positions, setting standards for hiring only after a suitable candidate has been identified. At the other ex-

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

treme, other employers have specific hiring processes and standards as clearly defined as those of the military (e.g., the U.S. government). In between, there are significant variations in selection processes and standards, even for the same jobs within an organization.

All entrants to military service are subject to a centralized job classification procedure based on the results of the ASVAB. This is not the case in the private sector. Even when required skills are common across jobs and organizations, employers differ in how they assess those skills. For example, one organization may assess the cognitive ability of an applicant by administering a professionally developed and validated paper-and-pencil test, while another may assess cognitive ability by reviewing the applicant’s resume and evaluating his or her educational achievement. In 2001, 29 percent of private-sector companies used some form of psychological measurement to assess applicants (American Management Association, 2001). In addition to cognitive ability assessments, which are used most frequently (20 percent of respondents), interest inventories, managerial assessments, personality assessments, and task simulations may be used in the private sector. However, the number of organizations using any form of psychological tests other than basic screening is low and dropping.10

Organizations also differ on what knowledge, skills, and abilities they choose to assess. As described in O*NET, they range from basic writing skills to complex problem-solving skills, from knowledge in general domains to specific occupational knowledge and experience, and from physical to cognitive abilities. Even if the identical job with the same requirements exists in two different organizations, finding one organization that measures and selects on cognitive ability and another on “professional appearance” is not uncommon.

The degree of variation and lack of standardization across U.S. companies is reflected in data collected by the American Management Association. It surveyed human resource managers in their member and client companies in January 2001 (American Management Association, 2001). Based on 1,627 usable responses with a margin of error of 2.5 percent, the findings showed that several companies used formal selection processes like literacy testing in 2001 (35 percent), while large numbers did not. Responses also illustrated different testing practices—literacy testing,

10  

The American Management Association noted that the drop may be due to skills shortages and the tight labor market that existed at the time the surveys were collected. It is important to note that these data represent the Association’s corporate membership and client base, which account for about 25 percent of the U.S. workforce. Smaller firms predominate in the larger U.S. picture and are underrepresented in this survey.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

math testing, or both—across industries (e.g., financial services versus wholesale and retail).

In addition to ensuring that recruits have the basic skills and abilities to learn and perform their military occupations, the military imposes other standards related to age, citizenship (or permanent residency), education, physical fitness, dependency status, and moral character. Most private employers avoid use of such standards because of the inherent conflicts with federal, state, and local equal employment and disability laws that protect individuals from discrimination on the basis of race, sex, age, and other variables that define a protected class of individuals. However, some jobs may require the applicant to submit to background checks, meet medical or physical requirements, or obtain certifications or licenses, similar to processes used in the military.

Some characteristics like education and moral character are used in the private sector for selection if they are job relevant. Although the practice might be questioned from a legal defensibility point of view (e.g., most organizations are not able to demonstrate a significant relationship between having a high school diploma and job performance), it is not uncommon for an employer to require a high school diploma. However, it is important to note that the usual question private employers ask is whether a person possesses a high school diploma or the equivalent, not whether a person has a GED instead of a high school diploma. Alternatively, organizations sometimes recruit applicants only at places that are likely to provide high school graduates (e.g., job fairs associated with a vocational-technical school). Because some characteristics like having a GED are correlated with other variables that constitute a protected class (e.g., race), most employers avoid making inferences about the kind of individual who earns a high school diploma and the kind who earns a GED.

Comparing the processes for entrance into the military and private-sector employment, there are two apparent differences. First, the standards and processes by which individuals are selected into military occupations are known and widely communicated. In contrast, the standards and processes used to staff jobs in business and industry are highly variable across and within organizations. While personnel in the staffing division of the organization (if they exist) usually know the processes and standards, in many organizations, these processes and standards are often not publicly communicated to other personnel. Although applicants will learn of the process through experience, the standards required are sometimes never explicitly stated.

Second, because of the federal, state, and local laws, civilian employers often may not use personal characteristics like age, physical ability, and dependency status. In fact, some companies avoid any questions

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

regarding these characteristics until after making a job offer. In contrast, these are primary criteria for military qualification.

Training Opportunities

Once an applicant is selected or hired into an entry-level position, the organization may provide training. Organizations vary considerably in their approaches to training. Some companies consider training to be an on-the-job effort and expect employees to learn by doing. So, in an entry-level job, a new hire may only attend a general orientation on the first day of employment and no other training. Other organizations devote considerable resources to providing formal training and evaluating competence (e.g., mentoring, staff development, technical training). Still others sidestep training altogether and hire only experienced employees for positions that require some training.

Organizations also vary on the kinds of training that are offered. While the military offers military training (e.g., basic training and occupational skills training) to all Service members, many private-sector employers provide basic skills training and supervisory training to only a few. The extent to which kind and amount of training are provided is unknown in the private sector as a whole. Similarly, outcome variables like standards and required competency levels are usually not specified.

Many employees are expected to invest in acquiring skills though postsecondary and vocational education and training courses prior to entry. When such general skills training is provided by business or industry, the employee often receives a reduced training wage although the employee may receive reimbursement for tuition. In contrast, the military provides fundamental job training in basic and advanced skills, such as electronics, computer science, and nuclear power, while the recruit continues to earn a salary. Training opportunities are available in some organizations for some occupations; in the military, training is offered to all recruits.

Working Conditions

To attract highly qualified and skilled employees, employers in private industry emphasize various inducements, such as attractive work settings (e.g., location, amenities, firm size), competitive compensation and benefits, advanced technology, career development, and training. For many job applicants, one of the most important aspects considered when choosing an entry-level position is working conditions.

While many positions in the civilian work force do not seem to vary substantially from similar positions in the military on skill or training

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

requirements, there may be substantial differences between working conditions in military and civilian-sector jobs. Some variables that differ include leisure time, level of supervision, autonomy, union membership, personal safety, work/family issues, culture, and commitment.

Unlike serving in the military, working in entry-level jobs may not require a contract with the employer or strict adherence to rules that govern almost all aspects of one’s life. A notable exception is certain jobs in local, state, or federal government. However, civilian employees are subject to organizational rules and regulations regarding such things as work hours (e.g., night shifts for security guards), dress code or uniform requirements (e.g., delivery drivers), and personal behavior (e.g., customer service agents). Nevertheless, in most cases, entry-level employees have more freedom to choose where to live and how to spend their free time compared with military personnel.

Not only are military personnel subject to military orders and discipline; they may serve under onerous conditions and in unpleasant places and may be subject to the risk of physical injury or death in combat. In some civilian occupations, conditions may be similarly undesirable or unpleasant. For example, police officers and firefighters risk their lives to ensure the safety of the people in their communities. With the exception of jobs in law enforcement and safety, however, most entry-level jobs are inherently low-risk, and none involves combat in warfare. Other work conditions may be less risky but have undesirable components, such as separation from family and night-shift duty.

The working conditions in the military and civilian employment vary considerably; however, it is important to note that it is the value an individual places on a specific working condition that is important in determining whether it is an advantage or disadvantage in the employment decision. What may be undesirable to one individual may be particularly attractive to another. While some may find the conditions of combat terrifying, others may find the same situation exhilarating. For some, night-shift work may be valued because it allows parental child care that would be precluded if both parents worked day hours.

Compensation

Like other human resource practices in the private sector, compensation strategies vary across and within different organizations, jobs, job families, and labor contracts. While the military has a fairly straightforward pay scale based on enlistment grade and various bonuses, private firms often use a complex array of recurring salaries or wages, merit increases, longevity increases, performance bonuses, and wage credits as

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

well as benefits with direct financial value (e.g., pension plans, savings plan match).

Compensation of entry-level employees typically includes a base salary, incentive pay, awards, and other rewards. In addition, entry-level employees often receive overtime pay for hours worked over 40 in a week or on holidays. Compensation is often determined through job analysis (e.g., comparison with market data, comparison with other jobs, manager interviews, site visits), job description (e.g., the nature and level of the work), job evaluation (e.g., job content, market drivers), and compensation strategy and resources. General wage increases usually occur either annually or semiannually.

Many employees receive incentives in addition to regular pay. Awards and other rewards include cash and noncash prizes for performance, attendance, service, stock plans, and retirement. Wage credits (based on experience), signing bonuses, and referral bonuses are frequent hiring practices. Recent trends that affect compensation are the competitive labor market, retention challenges, and performance-based plans.

Perhaps the most notable difference in compensation for military and private-sector work is the pay practices of each group. Private employers offer wider ranges of pay within smaller groups of individuals, and their practices often indicate a philosophy of rewarding those who make greater contributions (e.g., pay for performance). Pay ranges may vary as a result of wage credits given at entry for previous experience, merit increases based on superior performance, performance bonuses based on individual or team efforts, increases for tenure, credits for high cost-of-living areas, and more generous collective bargaining agreements.

Private employers take into account labor market conditions when setting pay. Most large organizations have compensation plans and a supporting organization to review and set pay scales. There are no laws other than the equal pay laws forcing private employers to pay at a given rate. The implicit limitations on pay rates come from concerns about profits, labor market rates, internal equity, and overall fairness. Private firms are free to change pay rates to meet changes in the marketplace.

In locations where the labor market is tight, such as in major metropolitan areas versus rural areas, organizations may increase pay. According to LinemenOnline, an Internet site that collects pay scales of linemen working for electrical utilities from around the world, linemen for Virginia Power are reported to make $25.62 per hour, while linemen for Tucson Electric Power Company in Arizona make $28.88 per hour (LinemenOnline, 2001). Private employers may also compete and pay more for highly desirable skills, like computer skills, than for common or easily learned skills, like administrative support skills. Although the military

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

also considers labor market conditions, it is on a much more limited basis (it sets one base pay rate that is congressionally approved). Thus, private companies have much more flexibility than the military Services to adapt quickly to the labor market and to reward individuals commensurate with their contributions.

In comparison, military compensation is consistent across large groups of individuals. Service members receive pay and signing bonuses for jobs that require high skills and substantial training (e.g., submarine or aviation personnel), that subject them to a high degree of personal risk, or that have shortages for any number of reasons. Thus, the pay range for everyone in a job at a particular grade in the military is very narrow.

Whether military or private-sector pay is greater overall is not clear. Some evidence regarding this was provided in the previous section. Recall that, in general, the pay of enlisted members compares favorably with the pay of high school graduates of similar age in the civilian sector, but it compares much less favorably to college graduates in the civilian sector (see Figure 5-4). However, like many other points of comparison, specific jobs in each sector should be compared. The military’s own information highlights the variability regarding pay competitiveness in a question and answer format on the Internet site, www.todaysmilitary.com:

Is military pay competitive with civilian jobs?

The answer is yes, it is. In a February 2000 survey, the Army Times Publishing Company compared 40 military positions (officer and enlisted) to their local civilian counterparts. In 19 of them, military pay was estimated to be below the local salary, but in 21 others, military pay was estimated to be equal to or higher than the comparable civilian pay. For purposes of comparison, military pay included base pay, basic allowances (housing and food), and the value of the average tax advantage for that pay grade (Today’s Military, 2001).11

One of the central questions regarding the role of compensation and military recruitment is the extent to which compensation deters (or aids) enlistments. While salary comparisons can be done for a few jobs, doing these comparisons across large numbers of jobs is quite time-consuming. Also, the data available typically compare wages across industries without accounting for differences in wages within the industry. Findings from the Army Times study mentioned in the quote above suggest that in

11  

The above comparison does not include the value or savings of: (1) the greater security of a military job; (2) the greater purchasing power of the military dollar through the base commissary and exchange outlets; (3) low-cost group life and health insurance; (4) free space-available travel in military aircraft and other similar benefits; and (5) retirement or pension benefits (Today’s Military, 2001).

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

the aggregate there is no clear advantage to civilian employment in terms of pay. This is inconsistent with the aggregate age-education comparisons of earnings presented in the previous section, in which the comparison is with civilians who are high school graduates.

Another belief is that salary levels reach higher levels in the private sector than in the military. Many are willing to accept lower pay on a short-term basis if it leads to higher pay in the long run. Because there is generally greater dispersion in earnings in the private sector than in the military, it is likely that the financial rewards to exceptionally talented employees in the private sector are greater than the financial rewards to exceptionally talented military members.

The real issue may not be whether the actual salaries in the civilian sector are higher than those in the military or whether salaries in the private sector have a higher range. Instead, the important issue may be in how salaries are perceived by young people making decisions about enlistment.

One source of information regarding attitudes on compensation comes from the 1999 Survey of Active Duty Personnel, which measured the attitudes and experience of over 30,000 service members from the Army, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the Air Force, and the Coast Guard with at least 6 months of active-duty service (Defense Manpower Data Center, 2001). Table 5-7 indicates a fairly small proportion of E1-E4 personnel who are satisfied with their compensation. Similar data come from the private sector in the form of a proprietary survey of employees in the Fortune 100 companies (Personnel Research Associates, 1999). Although there are many differences in the way each group was sampled and the percentage favorable are not strictly comparable, these data suggest that nonexempt (from overtime) employees in the private sector are more satisfied than those in the military (Table 5-8). In its magazine, HR News, the Society for Human Resource Management reported pay satisfaction of U.S. workers from a study of 1,218 respondents that provides a statistically representative sample of the U.S. private-sector workforce done by Sibson and Co., a global management consulting firm, with WorldatWork, formerly known as the American Compensation Association (Society for Human Resource Management, 2000). According to this study, 70 percent of the respondents reported satisfaction with their pay and benefits, and 65 percent were satisfied with their pay level overall. Interestingly, 43 percent reported that their employer’s pay process (i.e., methods the employer uses to determine pay amounts, grades, progress through grades, promotion decisions, and other pay structures) was satisfactory. The survey did not clarify whether employees were reacting to the process itself or the lack of communications about many of the compensation practices.

When asked about which forms of pay were most important to them,

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

TABLE 5-7 Members by Pay Grade Group Who Indicated Satisfaction with Various Components of Military Life (percentage)

Military Pay and Allowances

Percent Satisfied E1-E3

Percent Satisfied E4

Compensation Element

16.5

16.1

Basic pay

23.4

20.9

Special and incentive pay

27.7

22.8

Reenlistment bonus or continuation pay program

22.4

22.0

Housing allowance

26.4

28.4

Subsistence allowance

Military Benefits

Percent Satisfied E1-E3

Percent Satisfied E4

Benefit

61.0

52.3

Medical care for you

34.7

26.5

Other retirement benefits (e.g., medical care and use of base services)

51.6

46.7

Medical care for your family

 

SOURCE: Tables 3.7 and 3.8, Defense Manpower Data Center (2001).

19 percent ranked merit pay first; 20 percent ranked overtime pay first; 18 percent ranked cost-of-living allowances first; and 12 percent mentioned individual incentives first. The survey also found that Generation Y (i.e., those born after 1973) were less satisfied than older workers with work in general and less interested in direct financial rewards or work content.

TABLE 5-8 Ratings of Compensation, Benefits, and Working Conditions by Nonexempt Civilian Employees in Fortune 100 Companies

Element and Survey Item

Percentage Favorable

Compensation:

“I am paid fairly for my work.”

59.0

Benefits:

“How do you rate your total benefits package?”

70.9

Working Conditions:

“How satisfied are you with your opportunity to get a better job at your company?”

40.1

 

SOURCE: Personnel Research Associates (1999) unpublished data.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

This finding seems to suggest that these young people will not be particularly motivated by financial rewards. Clearly, the entire U.S. workforce is not directly comparable to the E1-E4 sample; however, if the data represent a comparable group of employees in any way, workers in business and industry seem to be more satisfied than military personnel.

Finally, statistical or econometric evidence provided in such studies as Warner, Simon, and Payne (2001) have clearly and consistently indicated that changes in relative compensation are correlated with changes in recruiting. Econometric studies since the inception of the All-Volunteer Force have established that there is an economically and statistically significant relationship between changes in military compensation relative to measures of civilian compensation and changes in recruiting. While the precise magnitude of this relationship has varied over time, from study to study, and by Service, the estimates have centered around an elasticity of about 1.0—that is, a 1 percent rise in military compensation relative to civilian employment earnings is associated with about a 1 percent increase in highly qualified recruits.

Benefits

Civilian employees in the private sector are offered an array of benefits and privileges. Benefits for entry-level employees often include medical and dental insurance, short- and long-term disability insurance, a savings plan (sometimes with a company match), a pension plan, tuition reimbursement, a flexible reimbursement plan, life and other insurance coverage, and personal time off. According to a survey of human resource professionals (N = 745) on employer’s use of 160 benefits often used in the private sector (Society for Human Resource Management, 2001), 64 percent of respondents indicated that the value of the benefits provided were worth from 11 to 40 percent of an employee’s salary on average.

There are differences in the mix of benefits offered as well as the level of benefit provided and the cost to the employee for the benefit. For example, in some organizations uniforms are required and the employee is expected to pay for them (either on his or her own, at a discount, or through a payroll deduction); in other organizations, the uniforms are free or subsidized. Complicating things further, some organizations offer a set of benefits to all employees, while others offer “cafeteria plans” that allow employees to tailor their benefit package to their current needs to varying degrees.

Simply offering a benefit may not be sufficient to attract and retain employees or military personnel. The quality of the service, which is typically discovered after employment or enlistment begins, and use of the service may affect the perceptions of its value. Also, initial receipt of the

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

benefit may affect its perceived value. For instance, medical insurance programs that take effect after a person has been on the payroll for six months may be less valuable than a program that begins from initial date of employment. Similarly a month of vacation may be highly desirable, but less so if it takes 10 or 20 years to reach that level of benefit.

Furthermore, different employees place different values on the same benefit. For example, a single employee with no dependents may not value a child care assistance program, while an employee who is a single mother with three children may choose employment based on the availability of company-sponsored child care.

Despite the difficulty of objectively comparing benefits across organizations, people still have well-formed opinions about the value of benefits. As Table 5-7 shows, the 1999 Survey of Active Duty Personnel suggests that the percentage of service personnel satisfied with their pay is much lower than the percentage satisfied with their benefits. There is also some evidence that satisfaction with benefits has decreased over time (Defense Manpower Data Center, 2001).

And compared with satisfaction in the private sector, the percentages of military personnel satisfied with pay and benefits are low. Table 5-8 shows survey responses of nonexempt civilian employees in Fortune 100 companies. The results show that more than half are satisfied with their pay and 70 percent with their benefits. Even though these findings may not be comparable with the available data on military personnel, they are reinforced by reports from the Society for Human Resource Management (2000) that 70 percent of private-sector employees are satisfied with their pay.

Higher Purpose

In many, or even most, civilian firms, there is a notion that the goods or services provided by the firm or industry and its employees are valued by society and that providing quality goods or services efficiently is intrinsically rewarding to many employees. In some occupations, such as the health care professions, the belief in this type of intrinsic reward can be particularly strong. However, in private industry, this dedication to serving the public through high-quality goods and services is often tempered by the idea of corporate profits that benefit shareholders rather than the general public. In the general case, the spirit of self-sacrifice and service for a higher purpose is much stronger in the military than in almost any civilian occupation or profession.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

Combined Military-Civilian Careers

When considering civilian employment as an alternative to military service, one should recognize that they are not mutually exclusive. The majority of those who enlist serve only one term of service and then enter either the civilian labor market directly, or the civilian labor market after obtaining additional formal education. Moreover, those who serve a full military career of 20 or even 30 years of service typically will have a second career in the civilian sector. For this reason, a strategy by the military Services that attempts to take this into account and offers to prepare members for a return to the civilian labor market may be more successful than one that considers only the direct competition between military service and the civilian labor market at the entry point.

To a large extent, the military Services have followed such a strategy. Military training and experience are valuable in the civilian sector. The Services inform potential recruits of this, through advertising and through recruiters. Moreover, there has been increasing emphasis on providing the opportunity to obtain civilian “credentials” for relevant military training and experience.

Trends in the civilian labor market, in which employees change firms and even industries more frequently than in the past, may make the notion of a combined military and civilian career even more fruitful in the future. In particular, the opportunity for a potential recruit to serve his or her country and to determine, through experience over an initial term of service, whether to pursue a full career of military service is a sound strategy to pursue.

Summary

Almost two-thirds of youth ages 16–24 participate in the civilian labor force today. Over the next several years, the youth population is projected to increase, leading to rapid growth in the youth labor force. There are a large number of job opportunities that exist in the civilian sector, but many opportunities also exist in the military, and many jobs can be found in both. Neither the military sector nor the civilian sector is clearly superior. There are also no significant reasons for preferring opportunities in civilian employment over opportunities in the military. In fact, some specific training and skills obtained in the military are transferable and valued in the civilian sector.

Working conditions and the opportunity to serve a higher purpose may be two areas in which substantial differences are observed. Different individuals may place different values on these characteristics. Thus, while one individual may find the restrictions that come with military life

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

onerous, another may find that service in the military is a source of pride and patriotism that outweighs inevitable restrictions. Similarly, one individual may value the intrinsic reward of serving one’s country, while another may value extrinsic rewards (e.g., fame and fortune) more.

EDUCATION AS AN ALTERNATIVE

In this section, we examine the aspects of postsecondary education that attract youth to college and the benefits of obtaining and completing a postsecondary education. Specifically, we address demographic trends in postsecondary education, access and returns to postsecondary education, youth perceptions of the benefits of education, and postsecondary educational opportunities in the military.

As noted in Chapter 3, young people appear to put a very high premium on getting a postsecondary education. Depending on the college and the program, a college education can provide a liberal education, develop the ability to think analytically and solve problems, improve communication skills, and provide the opportunity to learn high-tech skills. Parents and students alike also value the opportunity for students to mature, manage their own lives, and develop a personal value system (Immerwahr, 2000). However, as discussed earlier in this chapter, the greatest benefit may be the economic advantage over individuals with only a high school education; thus, parents, teachers, and high school counselors are increasingly advising students to go to college (U.S. Department of Education, 1999).

In 2000, the unemployment rate was at a 30-year low—3.9 percent (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002a). There was increasing demand for skilled workers in the civilian sector and more opportunities available to college degree holders. In response to this demand, more high school graduates chose to enroll in college and complete their postsecondary education.

By today’s standards, a high school degree is often the minimum requirement needed to enter the job market and gain access to various opportunities in the manufacturing and service sectors. However, high school graduates across the United States today can also choose from a complex array of postsecondary education programs. These programs range from short-term certificate programs to public or private two- or four-year degree programs that vary in quality and cost.

Transitions to Postsecondary Education

Vocational and technical preparation can be provided in combination with high school classes. These programs offer a mechanism for young people to make a transition to postsecondary education.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×
Tech Prep

The Tech Prep Education Act—Title III of the Carl D. Perkins Vocational and Applied Technology Education Act of 1990—emphasizes the development of academic and technical skills of high school and postsecondary students. This federally funded program, also known as 2+2, begins during the final two years of high school (10th–12th grade) and continues through a two-year postsecondary program (e.g., community college, technical college, or apprenticeship program). Participants in the program have the opportunity to obtain an associate’s degree or postsecondary certificate in a specific career field, as well as employment in the related area of study. Some schools have expanded the 2+2 concept to a 2+2+2 concept to encourage students to plan a long-term program of education that includes transferring from a community college to a four-year college.

Tech prep programs are prominent across the nation in most secondary schools and community colleges. They are also being implemented in the military. The Navy works with community colleges to recruit graduates with the technical and literacy skills needed to be active-duty sailors and are establishing a training program based on the federal tech prep program (Golfin and Blake, 2000). While participants in tech prep programs have the opportunity to obtain a two- or four-year college degree, many are trained in specialized skills (e.g., computers, advanced technology) that are highly applicable to jobs in either the private sector or the military.

Vocational and Technical Programs

Vocational and technical programs also provide high school graduates with training in specialized skills. However, many more students are completing these programs with the intention of going to college. Between 1982 and 1994, there was an increasing number of public high school students completing college preparatory courses and a decreasing number completing vocational courses (U.S. Department of Education, 1999). Of the students completing vocational coursework, some were completing college preparatory coursework as well (18 percent in 1994 compared with 2 percent in 1982). Public high school graduates who completed both vocational and college preparatory courses in 1992 (89.9 percent) were just as likely as students taking exclusively college preparatory courses (93.2 percent) to enroll in a two- or four-year postsecondary program.

In sum, students in tech prep or in vocational and technical programs develop academic and technical skills that are highly applicable to the

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

military or the civilian employment sector. Yet they are just as likely as other high school students and graduates to prepare for and enroll in a postsecondary institution.

College Enrollment and Completion

High school seniors have a variety of postgraduate choices, but the most popular choice among them is enrollment in college. As discussed in Chapter 3, a majority of high school graduates enroll in college immediately after graduating. Along with the rise in four-year college enrollment, community college enrollment has become increasingly popular during the past 30 years. Community colleges help accommodate the growing demand for a postsecondary education particularly because of their low cost and history of enrollment of low-income and minority students. Community colleges continue to be an important alternative for those in the postsecondary market. Although many high school seniors choose to enroll in two- or four-year colleges right after graduating, others have been choosing nontraditional paths to college, such as waiting one year or more after high school before enrolling, attending school part-time, combining school and work, or working full-time first (Choy, 2002).

Some high school seniors who choose postsecondary education may not remain in school straight through to completion. Students may leave the path toward a college degree at different stages depending on parents’ level of education, types of academic courses completed in high school, and availability of financial assistance. Among those high school graduates who enroll in college, some may drop out for a few years and later reenroll in the same program or transfer to another program, while others may drop out before completing their programs and never earn their degrees. Students whose parents completed college, who aspire and prepare for college, and who receive financial support are more likely to complete steps toward a college degree (Choy, 2002). Working full time, enrolling in a community college, and having parents with only a high school education are risk factors for college completion (Choy, 2002).

In 1989–1990, about 30 percent of college students (16 percent of students in four-year colleges and 42 percent of students in two-year colleges) left postsecondary education before beginning their second year (U.S. Department of Education, 1998; Choy, 2002). Of those students who left four-year colleges, 64 percent returned within five years (stopouts) and 36 percent stayed out (stayouts). Stayouts were typically older adults, married, people with children, and full-time workers (Choy, 2002). One-third of the students who returned within five years obtained some degree within that time. About half of the two-year students who stopped

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

out returned within five years. Stopouts were more likely to have attended college full time and been engaged in academic pursuits (e.g., interactions with students and faculty).

By 1998, these trends were relatively the same: 37 percent of first-year students who enrolled in postsecondary education in 1995–1996 left without obtaining a degree (U.S. Department of Education, 2001). Students in four-year colleges were less likely to drop out and stay out of college by their third year than were students in two-year colleges. Also, older students (ages 19–24) were more likely to stop out during their first year compared with younger students (ages 16–18). The average length of stopout (the first time) was 10 months for four-year college students.

Where do college stopouts and dropouts go once they leave postsecondary education? Slightly less than half of four-year college stopouts later reenroll in the same institution; the remaining students transfer to other institutions. We see the reverse pattern for two-year college stopouts. College dropouts are likely to choose other alternatives to postsecondary education (e.g., civilian employment or military service). Students may choose different paths to a college education that stray from the traditional but most persist and eventually obtain a postsecondary degree.

Demographic Factors and Enrollment

Recent college enrollments are up for all ethnic and socioeconomic groups. The percentage of high school graduates who enroll in college in the fall immediately after high school reflects both the accessibility and marketing of higher education as well as the value high school graduates place on college compared with other alternatives. Although the proportion of minority and low-income students enrolling in college has increased, an analysis of current enrollment data and projections for future enrollment show some barriers to postsecondary access.

Race/ethnicity, parent income, and parents’ level of education affect student enrollment and appear to be the best indicators of access to college. In 1999, high school graduates in high-income families were more likely to enroll in college immediately after high school (76 percent) than middle-income (60 percent) or low-income families (49 percent) (U.S. Department of Education, 2001). High school graduates were also more likely to enroll immediately after high school if their parents had at least a bachelor’s degree. In 1999, 82 percent of students (ages 16–24) whose parents had bachelor’s degrees or higher enrolled in college compared with 54 percent of students whose parents had only high school degrees (U.S. Department of Education, 2001).

In addition to family income and parents’ education, race and ethnic-

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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ity can affect postsecondary aspirations and enrollment. In 1992, of all college-qualified high school seniors who planned to attend college, 88 percent expected to finish school (U.S. Department of Education, 1997). And 82 percent of college-qualified students specifically planned to attend a four-year college. Of those students, Hispanics (77 percent) were less likely to plan to attend a four-year college than blacks (87 percent). Hispanic students were also less likely to enroll in postsecondary education. Moreover, Hispanics who did enroll were more likely to attend a two-year rather than a four-year institution compared with students from other race-ethnic groups. Most students value the importance of a postsecondary education. However, various barriers to access may thwart the intention to apply, enroll, or attend college.

Financing Postsecondary Education

Another potential barrier to attending college is the cost of a postsecondary education, which has risen significantly over the years. To help reduce financial barriers to college enrollment, students may receive state subsidies or federal grants and loans and participate in work-study programs. Financial aid to students has doubled over the past decade, primarily due to an increase in loan aid (College Board, 2001). Grant-based aid has increased as well, but to a lesser extent. Furthermore, more federal awards and college scholarships have been granted to students in recent years in the form of college grants, student loans, or Pell grants (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000b).

However, because of increases in nonneed-based borrowing, federal aid on the basis of need has decreased since the mid-1980s, from 80 to 60 percent (College Board, 2001). Since the early 1990s, use of nonneed merit scholarships has grown substantially, although a greater proportion of state financial aid is need-based (75 percent). While the number of need grants grew faster than merit aid, the amount of merit aid was larger (Heller, 2000). In addition, institutional spending on merit-based aid has grown, with a shift away from need-based aid and a greater share of merit-based aid going to middle- and high-income students. Yet, need-based financial assistance has grown significantly in importance to students from lower-income families.

With the help of financial aid, students in low-income families (below $30,000) may pay a lower net price for tuition, board, and fees than students in middle- (between $30,000–$59,999) or high-income families (over $60,000). However, average tuition has increased substantially since the 1980s, and the share of family income required to pay for college tuition and fees has increased for many families, particularly those at low- or middle-income levels (College Board, 2001). The cost of postsecondary

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

education also varies across institutions and the cost not covered by aid (unmet need) remains the responsibility of the students or their families.

Black and Hispanic students, who are overrepresented in low-income families, tend to have the lowest expected family contribution and the highest unmet need. These financial barriers limit low-income students’ educational choices. As a result, they either work or get help from family and friends to cover remaining costs. Consequently, these students may have higher loan debt, work more hours, attend less expensive schools, go to school part-time, and live off campus, which all lead to a lower probability of degree completion and negative implications on lifelong earnings.

Over time, the real cost of attending college has risen as a percentage of family income and continues to rise. Financial aid per full-time-equivalent student has increased but has not kept pace with increasing tuition. Such financial barriers to postsecondary education disproportionately affect minorities and lower-income students. These students may rely on various sources of aid to increase their chances of obtaining a postsecondary education. Programs that combine opportunities for access to postsecondary education and service in the military may be one major source of this aid.

Returns to Postsecondary Education

Trends in Earnings for High School and College Graduates

Changes in the labor market (e.g., globalization), the structure and type of occupations (e.g., service and technology), and the strong economy are important factors that contribute to the rise in intentions to obtain a postsecondary education. Nevertheless, the key factor remains the financial incentive for postsecondary education, which appears to have increased substantially over time.

As indicated in Figure 5-4, the earnings of college graduates are significantly greater than the earnings of high school graduates, or even those with some college. Importantly, the returns to investing in a postsecondary education have grown significantly over time, as has the earnings premium for a college degree, relative to a high school diploma. In 1985, for example, college graduates earned about 30 percent more than high school graduates of comparable experience (see Figure 5-9). By 1995, this premium had grown to over 45 percent. Interestingly, the earnings of those with some college (less than a four-year college degree) have not grown relative to the earnings of high school graduates, as illustrated in Figure 5-10.

Average annual earnings for college graduates have kept pace with

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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FIGURE 5-9 Earnings of college graduates relative to high school graduates.

SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (2002d).

FIGURE 5-10 Earnings of those with “some college” relative to high school graduates.

SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (2002d).

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

or have exceeded the rising costs of attending college. The trend remains even when accounting for earnings lost while attending college, attendance beyond four years, or amount of borrowed funds (e.g., loans). By contrast, the value of a college education is diminished when a degree is not completed. For persons who have completed only some college (one to three years), the result is less favorable. Noncompletion is detrimental to mean earnings such that these earnings have not kept pace with the growth in college costs. Time to recover expenses for a college education is lengthened even more if loan repayment is required.

The increasing earnings premium for college graduates compared with high school graduates is undoubtedly one of the most important factors affecting today’s military recruiting market. As noted earlier, military compensation for enlisted members compares favorably with that of high school graduates in the civilian sector but falls significantly short of the compensation of college graduates. Because the Services recruit from a college-eligible population—high school graduates who score in the upper half of the AFQT—this apparent increase in the financial return to college undoubtedly has made recruiting more difficult. One approach to easing recruiting problems is to design a credible program through which the enlistees could serve one or more terms and obtain a college degree at the same time.

Postsecondary Educational Benefits in the Military

Currently the military relies on educational incentives to attract young people to join; thus the choice between enlisting and postsecondary education is not mutually exclusive. There is a broad variety of educational incentive programs offered to recruits serving in the military. The three main options are tuition assistance, the Montgomery GI Bill, and the Veteran’s Educational Assistance Program. These programs are described and evaluated in extensive detail in a variety of sources, including DoD and Service web sites (e.g., <http://www.voled.doded.mil>).

Several publications prepared by the National Defense Research Institute at RAND describe opportunities for combining military service with postsecondary education and comprehensively review various educational incentive programs (Asch et al., 1999, 2000; also, see Warner et al., 2001). Here we briefly review several of the postsecondary education programs and educational incentives offered by the military.

Combining Postsecondary Education and Military Service

To aid service members in obtaining a postsecondary education, the Services have various benefits and programs that provide tuition assis-

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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tance and loan repayment, administer college or graduate degrees in programs such as Community College of the Air Force and Naval Post Graduate School, and offer college course credits for military training and job experience (see Thirtle, 2001). Through the DoD Voluntary Education Program, military services provide funding to military personnel for taking college courses. The military Services also collaborate with educational institutions to offer opportunities to learn at civilian high schools, vocational and technical schools, and undergraduate and graduate programs.

The military Services are increasingly providing assistance for youth to pursue a postsecondary education and serve in the military. Five options currently exist:

  1. Officer track: attend four-year college then enter the Service as an officer.

  2. College-enlisted track (e.g., College First): attend college or receive some college credit then enter the Service as an enlistee.

  3. Enlisted-college track (e.g., Montgomery GI Bill): enter the Service as a high school graduate, complete the service obligation, leave the Service, and go to college as either a veteran or Reserve or National Guard member.

  4. Enlisted-officer track: enter as an enlisted member, leave temporarily to attend four-year college, and return to the Service after getting a degree.

  5. Concurrent track: obtain college credits while in service.

Each track consists of various programs (some described below) that offer different educational benefits. Most individuals enter the largest tracks—the enlisted-college and concurrent tracks (Asch et al., 1999). Other tracks, such as the college-enlisted track, are small, but the Army and the Navy are considering expanding their programs to better attract college-bound youth (Asch et al., 2000).

All of the Services offer tuition assistance and special academic programs. For instance, participants in the concurrent track receive tuition assistance to take college courses while serving or receive college credits for experience and training in their military jobs (Asch et al., 1999; Thirtle, 2001). Tuition is typically paid in full for members entering high school certification programs and up to 75 percent of tuition for members entering a college program. Loan repayment programs also exist for enlisted Service members with college-related federal loans. Individuals in these programs must enlist in a critical occupational area and be a highly qualified recruit. The Army and the Navy reimburse loans for education obtained prior to enlisting. The Army pays $1,500 of an outstanding eligible

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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loan for each year of service up to $65,000; the Navy’s maximum repayment is $10,000 with a requirement of a four-year enlistment.

The Montgomery GI Bill is a benefit program that attracts college-bound youth to join the military. In this program—available to all new recruits in the enlisted-college track— individuals typically enlist first, then, after they leave the service, enroll in college. As mentioned earlier, the Montgomery GI Bill program often serves as a transitional benefit when recruits leave the service and reenter civilian life. (However, enlistees may also use the benefits while on active duty—Asch et al., 1999; Thirtle, 2001.) The maximum monthly benefit is $536 for active-duty Service members and $255 for Reserve and National Guard members. These benefits are available for up to 10 years after leaving the service.

Highly qualified recruits in hard-to-fill occupational areas and recruits who enlist for a specified number of years are eligible to receive even more money through the Army College Fund or the Navy College Fund. These programs are an enlistment incentive to supplement the Montgomery GI Bill; therefore, when combined with the GI Bill, the benefit may reach up to $50,000 (depending on years of service). Warner et al. (2001) evaluated the effects of various college benefits (e.g., the Navy College Fund) and enlistment bonuses on recruiting outcomes and found that these programs were a valued incentive and increased the number of high-quality enlistments.

In contrast to the Montgomery GI Bill program, the College First program allows enlistees to first attend college then enlist at a higher pay grade (college-enlisted track). Participants in this program attend college first for up to two years while in the delayed entry program; in addition, they receive a monthly allowance of $150. After college, the enlistees serve a term of service in the Army or the Navy. The College First program helps expand the enlisted supply and may lead to reduced accession requirements. Furthermore, enlistees with some college acquire skills that make them more productive in their military jobs.

According to Asch et al. (2000), the Montgomery GI Bill program may not be beneficial to the Services in terms of returns yielded if individuals leave the Service to attend college. It is more advantageous to have a skilled Service member return after completing college or one who takes courses concurrently with service. Furthermore, relatively few enlistees obtain a degree after serving or even complete some college courses while serving (Asch et al., 1999). The College First program may therefore be more beneficial for several reasons: individuals enlist at a higher pay grade, earn more while in the Service, and earn more civilian pay after leaving because they accrue more experience and training while in the military. Because enlistees do not leave the Service to receive the benefit,

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

the military realizes a return on its education investment and reenlistment rates increase.

Asch et al. (1999) suggest that further research is needed to evaluate which options are most effective at attracting college-bound youth. They proposed several policy alternatives for attracting youth, including recruiting two-year college students, recruiting college dropouts and paying them at a higher pay grade, and offering some combination of getting an education while serving in the military. According to a recent survey of youth attitudes toward serving in the military, most respondents (high school seniors, college students, and college dropouts) seem to prefer benefit options that combine working with going to school (Asch, 2001). This finding suggests that enlisted personnel may be more likely to obtain a college education while serving in the military and provides further support for a military enlistment strategy that combines military service with postsecondary education concurrently.

Educational incentives are probably one of the most promising policy change options for attracting college-bound youth. However, the growth in military college benefit programs lags behind the costs of a postsecondary education, and legislative proposals for enhancing these benefits are pending (Asch et al., 1999).

Collaborating with Community Colleges

Community colleges provide technical education in skill areas needed by the armed services (e.g., electronics and computers). Compared with high school graduates, community college students have better literacy skills, are more likely to complete initial service obligations, and often possess technical skills they would otherwise have to learn at military expense. Despite overall increasing attendance at community colleges, less than 1 percent of armed services recruits are community college graduates (Golfin and Blake, 2000).

Military programs such as the Community College of the Air Force and Army College First provide recruits with opportunities to earn degrees while on active duty (Golfin and Blake, 2000). However, there are several limitations to obtaining postsecondary education while in the Service. For instance, in the Navy, sea duty, deployments, and training requirements make it difficult for sailors to pursue an education compared with airmen or soldiers.

Recent advances in technology are stimulating the growth of distance education offerings in postsecondary institutions and in the military (e.g., improved means to allow interactivity between students and faculty and improved rapid exchange of information). According to the U.S. Department of Education (2000b), two- and four-year postsecondary institutions

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
×

are expanding their distance technology and education offerings. Between 1994–1995 and 1997–1998, the number of public and private postsecondary institutions involved in distance learning increased by one-third. Approximately 8 percent of all two- and four-year higher education institutions offered certificates or college-level degrees entirely through distance learning.

Similarly, the DoD education and training community is undertaking initiatives to leverage use of technological capabilities for distance education (e.g., the Advanced Distributed Learning Initiative). One example, the U.S. Army University Online, provides access to education for Service members wherever they are on the globe. Members can choose from 85 different programs at 20 different schools to earn a certificate or an associate’s, bachelor’s, or master’s degree by attending web-based courses. Some benefits of this program include full tuition and fees, personal computer equipment, email and Internet access, and 24-hour technical support.

One-quarter of the 1.3 million Service personnel are involved in some form of training at any one time (Fletcher, 2000). Most of this training involves preparing for and implementing tasks and building occupational skills. A vision for defense training in the future is to deliver instruction and provide assistance to individuals and groups in real time and on demand. Emerging technology will help provide high-quality instruction to individuals anytime and anywhere.

SUMMARY

The primary alternatives to military service are civilian employment and postsecondary education. Each of these alternatives emphasizes different characteristics that affect the choice of highly qualified youth. Currently, the greatest challenge to military recruiting is attracting college-bound youth. The armed forces compete directly for the same portion of the youth market that colleges attempt to attract—high school graduates that score in the upper half of the AFQT.

Both the proportion of high school graduates who continue on to college and the earnings of college graduates compared with high school graduates have increased substantially over the past decade. Both of these related factors suggest that it has become increasingly difficult for the armed forces to compete successfully with postsecondary education for college-eligible youth.

By contrast, the armed forces have been generally successful in offering a compensation and benefits package that is competitive with civilian employment opportunities. Moreover, the resources applied to recruiting

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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including recruiters, bonuses, education benefits, and advertising effectively increase the enlistment rates of high-quality eligible youth. This mix of resources has been reasonably and efficiently applied.

While civilian employers are highly variable in what they offer prospective employees, neither the military nor the civilian sector is clearly superior in job opportunities. For example, compensation and benefits vary but are not necessarily better or worse in the civilian sector. However, in the civilian sector, employees can better respond to employee and market demands and employ a variety of compensation strategies.

In two areas there are substantial differences between the military and civilian employment: working conditions and opportunity to serve a higher purpose. A typical individual might prefer working conditions in the civilian sector to those in the military, where conditions may be onerous or life threatening. However, that individual is more likely to find a transcendent purpose (e.g., duty to country) serving in the military than being employed in the civilian sector.

The notion of a higher purpose, combined with extrinsic rewards, such as competitive compensation and training and educational opportunities, provides a foundation from which the armed forces can compete successfully with civilian employers and postsecondary educational institutions in attracting qualified youth. Therefore, while postservice benefit programs like the Montgomery GI Bill have been successful in the past, innovative approaches that integrate higher education with military service may be necessary in the future to attract youth.

Recruiting has become more difficult in the last several years, but not because of a change in the effectiveness of recruiting resources. The recruiting difficulty was in part due to a booming economy and in part due to the failure of recruiting resources to keep pace with the recruiting mission. However, as previously discussed, a portion of the downturn cannot be explained by either of these factors. Instead, a portion may have been due to a change in tastes for military service in the eligible youth population or other factors that have not been measured. In the next chapter, we examine what unexplained factor may lead to recruiting challenges.

Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Trends in Employment and Educational Opportunities for Youth." National Research Council. 2003. Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10478.
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Recruiting an all-volunteer military is a formidable task. To successfully enlist one eligible recruit, the Army must contact approximately 120 young people. The National Research Council explores the various factors that will determine whether the military can realistically expect to recruit an adequate fighting force -- one that will meet its upcoming needs. It also assesses the military’s expected manpower needs and projects the numbers of youth who are likely to be available over the next 20 years to meet these needs.

With clearly written text and useful graphics, Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth offers an overview of important issues for military recruiters, touching on a number of important topics including: sex and race, education and aptitude, physical and moral attributes, and military life and working conditions. In addition, the book looks at how a potential recruit would approach the decision to enlist, considering personal, family, and social values, and the options for other employment or college.

Building on the need to increase young Americans’ “propensity to enlist,” this book offers useful recommendations for increasing educational opportunities while in the service and for developing advertising strategies that include concepts of patriotism and duty to country. Of primary value to military policymakers, recruitment officers, and analysts, Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth will also interest social scientists and policy makers interested in youth trends.

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