proliferation of cars in China have global implications for climate change? An expanding Chinese automobile fleet suggests that China will become a major petroleum importer; what effect would that have on the world demand for oil? Because these issues were beyond the resources available for the study, it was only possible to recognize their importance and to leave them for examination in later studies. Furthermore, the details and costs of implementation of the committee’s recommendations will require a comprehensive analysis of specific urban development patterns, market forces, public revenues, and expenditures that was beyond the scope of this study.

THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHER COUNTRIES

Many other countries have gone through a similar motorization process, though few in so short a time. Some countries provide models for coping with the economic, environmental, and societal effects of rapid motorization in cities, and others offer successful examples of rapid development of a viable, independent automotive industry. Singapore, Hong Kong, Curitiba, and Houston provide different models for attempting to control urban traffic congestion, although none of them was trying simultaneously to develop a local automotive industry. The United States, Europe, and Japan have different approaches to controlling emissions and limiting fuel consumption. The development of an indigenous automotive industry can be observed in the varied experience of Japan and Korea, and a government-industry partnership to develop advanced vehicle technology was recently attempted in the United States. Each of these experiences offers a different lesson, and some were more successful than others in achieving their objectives. Though none of them is closely reproducible in the present situation, a careful examination of their experiences will be helpful to planners in China.

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

The Chinese automotive industry faces significant challenges in achieving independence. In the medium to long term, the industry must adjust to the effects of China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will allow independent foreign automobile manufacturers and importers into China for the first time and may open the domestic market to an increased volume of imports that would challenge even the joint ventures in the growing Chinese market.

Presently, China spends a smaller percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP) on automotive research than any of the automobile-exporting countries and has limited trained and capable human resources in



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