Personal Cars and China

CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Personal Cars and China Personal Cars and China CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Personal Cars and China THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by grants from the Ford Motor Company, DaimlerChrysler, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. National Research Council, U.S. National Academy of Engineering, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, China FAW Group Corporation, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, and Chinese Academy of Engineering. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08492-X Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (1-202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Personal Cars and China THE CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING The Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) is China's foremost academic and advisory institution in engineering and technological sciences. It was founded in June 1994 and now has 611 members. As a national institution, CAE has the following missions: to promote the progress of engineering and technological sciences, foster the growth of outstanding talents in close collaboration with the engineering and technological community, and enhance international cooperation in order to facilitate sustainable economic and social development in China. Prof. Xu Kuangdi is president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. Dr. Song Jian is the former president (June 1998–June 2002). THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Feinberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering and Medicine www.national-academies.org

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Personal Cars and China COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF PERSONAL TRANSPORT VEHICLES IN CHINA Dale COMPTON, Cochairman (NAE) Lillian M. Gilbreth Distinguished Professor of Industrial Engineering School of Industrial Engineering Purdue University GUO Konghui, Cochairman (CAE) Director, State Key Lab for Automobile Dynamic Simulation Professor, Jilin University Feng AN Consultant Center for Transportation Research Argonne National Laboratory CHENG Zhenbiao Chief Engineer Science and Technology Information Research Institute Dongfeng Motor Corporation Elisabeth DRAKE Associate Director for New Energy Technology (retired) Energy Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Patrick F. FLYNN Vice President, Research (retired) Cummins Engine Company Ralph GAKENHEIMER Professor of Urban Planning (retired) Department of Urban Studies and Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology Gregory K. INGRAM Director Operations Evaluation Department World Bank LI Gang Former President, Chinese National Automotive Industry Corporation Senior Project Adviser, Chinese Academy of Engineering LU Ximing Director Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute QIU Yansheng Deputy Chief Engineer, Professor Research Institute of Petroleum Processing (RIPP) SHAO Min Deputy Director, Associate Professor Center for Environmental Sciences Peking University

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Personal Cars and China Daniel SPERLING Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Environmental Studies Director, Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis SUN Zhenhua Senior Engineer Technique and Quality Department Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) Michael P. WALSH Consultant Arlington, Virginia ZHAO Junming Senior Engineer Changchun Automotive Research Institute (CARI) Ex officio Members ZHU Gaofeng Vice President (June 1994–June 2002) Chinese Academy of Engineering Harold FORSEN Foreign Secretary National Academy of Engineering Staff Michael GREENE, Study Director (NRC) Division of Policy and Global Affairs National Research Council LI Renhan, Study Director (CAE) Director Division Office of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering Chinese Academy of Engineering ZHENG Xiaoguang Director Department of International Cooperation Division of International Organization Chinese Academy of Engineering Vivienne CHIN Program Office National Academy of Engineering

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Personal Cars and China Preface In mid-1999 representatives of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) visited the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) to explore the prospects for collaboration between the two institutions on a study of the future of the personal car in China. This is the second instance of formal collaboration between the CAE and the NRC. The outcome of the first was a study entitled Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States, published in 2001, in which the Chinese Academy of Sciences also participated. The National Research Council, the operating arm of the three National Academies—the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine—has been producing independent advisory reports at the request of the U.S. government and other government and donor organizations since 1916 (the parent organization, the National Academy of Sciences, received its congressional charter in 1863). The Chinese Academy of Engineering has been in existence since 1994, and is developing a role as adviser to its government that parallels that of the NRC. Although the nominal topic of this report—the Chinese automotive industry and the future of personal cars in China—is specific to China, many of the issues examined also are relevant to the United States and other countries. For example, the higher polluting emissions that will accompany the proliferation of cars in China are predicted to have global implications for climate change. Moreover, an expanding Chinese automotive fleet will increase the world demand for petroleum, and raises the

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Personal Cars and China possibility of higher international prices as China becomes a major petroleum importer. Those and the other problems that will confront China as it continues to develop its transportation system—such as congestion, more accidents, undesirable changes in land use, and urban decentralization—must be addressed by any nation that expects to see its motor vehicle population grow significantly. This study could not examine the extent of global problems that may ensue from a large increase in motorization worldwide, but the committee felt very strongly that the impacts, both positive and negative, of any such increase should be thoroughly explored. Essentially all of the issues identified in this report as being critical to China will arise on a global scale and will be that much more difficult to manage. We urge that such a study be undertaken at the earliest possible moment. Some important issues identified that are specific to China could not be explored in detail within the present study. These include the impact of motorization on inequity among various segments of the population and the cost and financing of the new infrastructure that will accompany increased motorization in China. An in-depth study of these issues, however, would require an examination of regional and national economic and social development, and the committee was not prepared to examine the many ramifications of this subject. Similarly, the report devotes less space to social change and changes in urban form than to automotive and fuel-related technologies. Although the report does observe that increases in motorization will lead to decentralization of both jobs and residences in Chinese cities, with some illustrative calculations for Shanghai, answering important questions about the economic impacts and how the transportation infrastructure is to be financed involves issues of public revenues and expenditures that were well beyond the charge to the committee. Nevertheless, these issues are of immense importance to China and deserve further study. As the goals and priorities of the Chinese automotive industry and the Chinese government evolve, it is clear that the many ways to achieve them will come to light, but none certain of success and all with palpable risks. Naturally, these conflicts were reflected in differences of opinion among members of the committee; however, the line of advocacy on each side of these issues rarely coincided with the nationalities of the committee members. It was a committee of individual experts who, taken together, represented all points of view. Each side learned from the other, and the collaboration has strengthened both of the collaborating institutions. We hope that this report will be viewed as a useful contribution to policy making by the automotive industries and governments of all countries and will serve as an important addition to the literature of science and technology policy. We were honored to serve as cochairmen of this

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Personal Cars and China distinguished committee. And we compliment the members of the committee for their diligence and efforts throughout this study to ensure that it properly reflected the challenges and opportunities of this period of dynamic change for the Chinese automotive industry and the people and government of China. W. Dale Compton U.S. National Research Council Guo Konghui Chinese Academy of Engineering

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Personal Cars and China Acknowledgments The committee would like to thank the Ford Motor Company, DaimlerChrysler, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. National Research Council (NRC), U.S. National Academy of Engineering, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, China FAW Group Corporation, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, and Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) for financial and other support for the study. Staff of the National Research Council’s Transportation Research Board and Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, particularly Stephen Godwin and James Zucchetto, helped to launch the study, and Lester Hoel and Harold Forsen of the National Academy of Engineering traveled to Shanghai to help formulate the memorandum of understanding. Zhu Gaofeng of the Chinese Academy of Engineering made many valuable contributions during the deliberations. The study directors—Michael Greene, Zheng Xiaoguang, and Li Renhan—provided essential logistical support for the committee and valuable contributions during the deliberations and the drafting of the report. Project consultant Sabra Bissette Ledent ably edited the report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee and the CAE’s Committee for Consultative Projects. The purpose of these independent reviews is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institutions in making their published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review

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Personal Cars and China     China’s Automotive Industry Today,   39     The Current State of Vehicle Technology,   40     Strategies Pursued by Other Countries to Develop Their Automotive Industries,   42     The Future Development of China’s Automotive Industry,   44     Building an R&D Capability,   48     Conclusion,   51     Appendix 3A: The Major Automotive Enterprises in China,   52     Appendix 3B: China’s Five-year Plan for the Automotive Industry—Goals and Strategies,   58     References,   60 4   Present and Future Automotive Technologies   61     Fleet Issues for Vehicle Technologies,   63     Vehicle Component Technologies,   73     Hybrid Vehicle Technologies,   96     System Integration and Manufacturing,   105     Appendix: Other Types of Fuel Cells,   107     References,   110 5   Energy and Fuels   113     China’s Fuel Industry,   117     Alternative Fuel Possibilities for the Future,   126     References,   129 6   Societal Effects of Potential Motorization Pathways   131     Effects of the Motorization Process,   132     Construction of Transport Facilities in Chinese Cities: The Case of Shanghai,   140     Impact of Motorization on Urban Traffic Management Requirements,   142     The Social Impacts of Rapid Motorization,   146     Conclusion,   148     References,   148 7   Environment and Health   150     Emissions,   150     Health Effects,   151     Climate Change,   158     Air Quality,   160     Implications of China’s Vehicle Growth for Future Emissions and Fuel Consumption,   162     References,   166

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Personal Cars and China 8   The Role of Government   169     Strategic Framework,   169     Summary of Worldwide Government Emissions Standards,   171     Summary of Worldwide Government Fuel Economy Standards,   180     Inspection and Maintenance Programs,   186     Industry-Government Partnerships,   186     Conclusion,   197     Appendix: Inspection and Maintenance Programs,   197     References,   201 9   Findings and Recommendations   203     Patterns of Motorization,   203     The Future of the Chinese Automotive Industry,   204     Technology Research and Development,   207     Urban Issues,   209     Environmental and Health Issues,   211     The Role of Government,   212     Reference,   215     Appendixes         A Memorandum of Understanding   219     B Case Study: Shanghai, China Daniel Sperling, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis Lu Ximing, Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute Zhou Hongchang, Tongji University, Shanghai   223

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Personal Cars and China LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES Figures 2-1   Motor vehicle fleets in relation to income, selected countries, 1970 and 1996,   15 2-2   Automobile share of motor vehicle fleet in relation to income, selected countries, 1970 and 1996,   17 2-3   Paved road length in relation to income, selected countries, 1970 and 1996,   19 2-4   Motor vehicle death rates in relation to per capita income, selected countries, 1996,   22 4-1   Driving cycles for measuring emissions,   64 4-2   Steps in the life cycle of automotive technology,   67 4-3   Comparisons of life cycle energy use,   69 4-4   Life cycle comparisons of costs and carbon emissions,   70 4-5   Typical fuel economy improvements in new vehicle options resulting from vehicle weight reduction for a typical power train efficiency,   74 4-6   Comparisons of power train efficiency of combustion engine and fuel cell systems,   78 4-7   Typical performance map for a spark ignition engine,   79 4-8   Typical engine efficiency and average driving cycle operating modes for U.S. cars,   83 4-9   Three-way catalyst system behavior versus fuel/air ratio,   86 4-10   Limits of diesel combustion at 1,500 revolutions per minute,   88 4-11   Fuel-specific nitrogen oxide emission standards versus capability,   90 4-12   Fraction of electric power of selected hybrid electric vehicles,   101 4-13   U.S. fuel economy (gasoline equivalent) through elements of dieselization, load reduction, engine downsizing, and hybrid optimization,   104 4-14   Estimated energy versus cost ranges for selected technologies per kilometer,   108 5-1   China’s annual crude oil production, consumption, and imports, 1991–2000,   118 5-2   China’s production of gasoline and diesel fuel, 1991–2000,   118 6-1   Distribution of land use changes outward from city center of Guangzhou, before and after land reform of 1987,   137

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Personal Cars and China 7-1   Motor vehicle emissions in China, 2000–2020,   163 7-2   Motor vehicle emissions in China—European standards in 2010, light-duty fuel economy improvements starting in 2005,   164 7-3   Light-duty carbon dioxide emissions, alternative scenarios,   165 8-1   Elements of a comprehensive vehicle pollution control strategy,   170 8-2   Miles per gallon of trucks and cars by model year, United States,   181 B-1   Shanghai,   225 B-2   Travel by mode, Shanghai,   233 B-3   Mode of travel in passenger-kilometers, high motorization scenario, 2020,   250 B-4   Mode of travel in passenger-kilometers, low motorization scenario, 2020,   252 Tables 2-1   National Vehicle Fleet Projections for Three GDP Growth Rates, China,   24 3-1   Motor Vehicle Production, China, 2000,   40 4-1   Examples of Emissions Standards in the United States, Japan, and Europe,   65 4-2   Vehicle Costs per kilometer for Selected New Vehicle Options, 2020,   71 4-3   Typical Energy Content and Storage Requirements for Automotive Energy Sources,   84 4-4   Percentage of Time Spent and Fuel Consumed by a Typical U.S. Car during Vehicle Stops and Braking in Different Urban Driving Cycles,   97 4-5   Characteristics of Commercial and Prototype Hybrid Electric Vehicles,   102 4-6   Trade-offs for Hybridizing Fuel Cell Vehicles,   104 5-1   Average Per Capita Energy Use for Selected Countries, 1999,   114 5-2   European Union Fuel Specification Limits,   115 5-3   Influences of Vehicle Efficiency Improvements on Future Fuel Consumption in China,   116 5-4   China’s Refining Capacities,   119

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Personal Cars and China 5-5   Consumption Patterns for Diesel Fuels in China, 1995–2000,   120 5-6   Unleaded Petrol Specification for Motor Vehicles, July 2000,   121 5-7   Sulfur Content of Chinese Diesel Fuels,   122 5-8   China’s Diesel Fuel Specifications,   124 5-9   Planned Sulfur Standards, China,   126 5-10   Energy Consumption of China, 1997 and 2000,   126 5-11   Chinese Energy Reserves,   127 7-1   IPCC’s Global Warming Potential for Carbon Monoxide, Methane, Nonmethane Hydrocarbons, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Nitrous Oxide,   160 7-2   Ozone Concentration in Beijing, 1997–1999,   161 7-3   Light-duty Vehicle Emissions Trends in China, 2002–2020,   164 8-1   Passenger Car Emissions Standards, Nitrogen Oxides (Gasoline and Diesel) and Particulate Matter (Diesel), United States, European Union, and Japan,   174 8-2   Heavy-duty Diesel Nitrogen Oxide Standards, United States, European Union, Japan, 1990–2010,   176 8-3   Heavy-duty Diesel Particulate Matter Standards, United States, European, Japan, 1993–2010,   177 B-1   Cars per 1,000 Inhabitants, Seven Cities,   236 B-2   Energy Use for Vehicles and Fuels, Shanghai, 2000 and 2020,   247 B-3   Key Travel and Population Parameters for Scenarios, 2000 and 2020,   248 Boxes 2-1   Main Obligations of WTO Members,   25 8-1   Transportation Planning and Traffic Management,   172 8-2   Diesel Cars,   175 B-1   Comprehensive Transportation Planning for Shanghai City,   227

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Personal Cars and China ACRONYMS AND ABBREVATIONS A5 Automotive five gear AB advanced body ABS antilock braking system AC alternating current ACEA European Automobile Manufacturers Association A/F air and fuel ASM acceleration simulation mode (test) atm atmosphere bbl barrel, barrels bhp brake horsepower BMEP brake mean effective pressure BSFC brake-specific fuel consumption Btu British thermal unit CAE Chinese Academy of Engineering CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy CARB California Air Resources Board CBM coal-bed methane CDH Colorado Department of Health CFC chlorofluorocarbon CFPP cold filter plugging point CH4 methane CI compression ignition CIDI compression ignition direct injection CNG compressed natural gas CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation CO carbon monoxide CO2 carbon dioxide CV conventional vehicle CVCC compound vortex-controlled combustion CVS constant volume sampler CVT continuously variable transmission DC direct current DMC Dongfeng Motor Corporation DME dimethyl ether DPI direct public investment ECD Energy Conversion Devices Inc. EGR exhaust gas recirculation

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Personal Cars and China EMAT electro-mechanical automatic transmission EPA Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.) EU European Union EUCAR European Council for Automotive R&D FAW First Auto Works FC fuel cell FP fine particles F-T Fischer-Tropsch FTP Federal Test Procedure (U.S.) g gram GATS General Agreement on Trade in Services GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GCP Gross City Product GDI gasoline direct injection GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GIS geographic information system GJ gigajoule GM General Motors GPS global positioning system GWP global warming potential H2 hydrogen HC hydrocarbon HCCI homogeneous charge compression ignition HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbon HEV hybrid electric vehicle HFC hydrofluorocarbon hp horsepower HVAC heating, ventilating, air-conditioning I iodine IARC International Agency for Research on Cancer ICE internal combustion engine I/M inspection and maintenance IPCC International Panel on Climate Change IRF International Road Federation ITS intelligent transportation system J joule JAMA Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association

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Personal Cars and China KAMA Korean Automobile Manufacturers Association kg kilogram kl kiloliter km kilometer KOH potassium hydroxide kPa kilopascal kph kilometers per hour kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour lb pound lb/hp-hr pounds mass per horsepower-hour LEV low-emission vehicle LHV lower heating value LNG liquefied natural gas LPG liquefied petroleum gas m3 cubic meter M5 manual five gear mbd million barrels per day MeOH methanol Mg magnesium MITI Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Japan) MJ megajoule MMT methyl cyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl MMT million metric tons MON Motor Octane Number mpg miles per gallon mph miles per hour MPV multipurpose vehicle MTBE methyl tertiary-butyl ether MW megawatts µg microgram µm micron, micrometer MWh megawatt-hour NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (U.S.) NDIR nondispersive infrared NH3 ammonia NHDTG National Heavy-duty Truck Group (China) NiMH nickel metal hydride NMHC nonmethane hydrocarbon

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Personal Cars and China NMVOC nonmethane volatile organic compound NO2 nitrogen dioxide NOx nitrogen oxides N2O nitrous oxide NRC National Research Council O3 ozone ODS ozone-depleting substance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OEM original equipment manufacturer PAH polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon PEM proton exchange membrane PFC perfluorocarbon PM particulate matter PNGV Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (U.S.) ppm parts per million R&D research and development RMB renminbi RON Research Octane Number rpm revolutions per minute RVP Reid vapor pressure s second SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAIC Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation SCR selective catalytic reduction SF6 sulfur hexafluoride SI spark ignition SINOPEC China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation SOFC solid oxide fuel cell SPS sanitary and phytosanitary SUV sport-utility vehicle TAIC Tianjin Automotive Industry Group Corporation TBT Technical Barrier to Trade [Agreement] TOEtons of oil equivalent TRIMS [Agreement on] Trade-Related Investment Measures TRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights

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Personal Cars and China UHC unburned hydrocarbons USABC U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium USCAR U.S. Council for Automotive Research USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency V volt VMT vehicles miles traveled VOC volatile organic compound W watt WTO World Trade Organization

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