FIGURE 5.15 Comparison of recorded (top row) and simulated (middle and bottom rows) displacement, velocity, and accelerations at Arleta from the 1994 Northridge earthquake, plotted on a common scale with peak value given at the top left corner. SOURCE: P. Somerville, C.K. Saikia, D. Wald, and R. Graves, Implications of the Northridge earthquake for strong ground motions from thrust faults, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., 86, S115-S125, 1996. Copyright Seismological Society of America.

curately constrain short- and long-term seismicity rates for use in seismic hazard assessment? How should geologic and paleoseismic data on faults best be used to determine earthquake recurrence rates?

  • Can physics-based scenario simulations produce more accurate estimates of ground-motion parameters than standard attenuation relationships? Can these simulations be used to reduce the high residual variance in these relationships?

  • What is the nature of near-fault ground motion? How do fault ruptures generate long-period directivity pulses? How do near-fault



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