Living on an ACTIVE Earth

Perspectives on Earthquake Science

Committee on the Science of Earthquakes

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu



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Living on an ACTIVE Earth Perspectives on Earthquake Science Committee on the Science of Earthquakes Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Division on Earth and Life Studies NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported through endowment funds provided by the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Living on an active earth : perspectives on earthquake science / Committee on the Science of Earthquakes, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-06562-3 (Book) ISBN 0309-50631-X (PDF) 1. Seismology—Research. 2. Earthquake hazard analysis. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Science of Earthquakes. QE539 .L58 2002 551.22'07'2073—dc21a 2002151540 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Cover: Different perspectives on earthquake science. Left: Global tectonic map, generated from digital ocean bathymetry and land topography data. SOURCE: NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Upper right: Geologists examining fault slip from the 1954 Dixie Valley-Fairview Peaks, Nevada, earthquake. SOURCE: Photograph by Karl Steinbrugge, Steinbrugge Collection, Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley. Center right: Synthetic aperture radar interferometry image of deformation caused by the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. SOURCE: D. Sandwell, L. Sichoix, A. Jacobs, R. Scharroo, B. Minster, Y. Bock, P. Jamason, E. Price, and H. Zebker, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, La Jolla, Calif. Bottom right: Rubble of collapsed buildings in the town of Golcuk, Turkey, resulting from the 1999 Izmit earthquake. SOURCE: Photograph by Enric Marti. Copyright (1999) Associated Press. Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON THE SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKES THOMAS H. JORDAN, Chair, University of Southern California, Los Angeles GREGORY BEROZA, Stanford University, Stanford, California C. ALLIN CORNELL, Stanford University, Portola Valley, California C. B. CROUSE, URS Corporation, Seattle, Washington JAMES DIETERICH, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California ARTHUR FRANKEL, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado DAVID D. JACKSON, University of California, Los Angeles ARCH JOHNSTON, University of Memphis, Tennessee HIROO KANAMORI, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena JAMES S. LANGER, University of California, Santa Barbara MARCIA K. MCNUTT, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California JAMES R. RICE, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts BARBARA A. ROMANOWICZ, University of California, Berkeley KERRY SIEH, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena PAUL G. SOMERVILLE, URS Corporation, Pasadena, California National Research Council Staff Anne M. Linn, Study Director (from September 2000) Tamara L. Dickinson, Study Director (May to November 1998) Ellen Kappel, Study Director (July 1999 to January 2000) Charles Meade, Study Director (until January 1998) Monica Lipscomb, Research Assistant (from October 2001) Verna J. Bowen, Administrative Assistant (from June 1998) Steven Shannon, Project Assistant (until October 1996) Susan Sherwin, Project Assistant (October 1996 to June 1998)

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BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES RAYMOND JEANLOZ, Chair, University of California, Berkeley JILL BANFIELD, University of California, Berkeley STEVEN R. BOHLEN, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Washington, D.C. VICKI J. COWART, Colorado Geological Survey, Denver DAVID L. DILCHER, University of Florida, Gainesville ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia RHEA GRAHAM, New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission, Albuquerque GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville DIANNE R. NIELSON, Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City MARK SCHAEFER, NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia BILLIE L. TURNER II, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts THOMAS J. WILBANKS, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee National Research Council Staff ANTHONY R. DE SOUZA, Director TAMARA L. DICKINSON, Senior Program Officer DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer PAUL M. CUTLER, Program Officer KRISTEN L. KRAPF, Program Officer KERI H. MOORE, Program Officer LISA M. VANDEMARK, Program Officer YVONNE P. FORSBERGH, Research Assistant MONICA R. LIPSCOMB, Research Assistant EILEEN MCTAGUE, Research Assistant VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Associate JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate RADHIKA S. CHARI, Senior Project Assistant KAREN L. IMHOF, Senior Project Assistant SHANNON L. RUDDY, Senior Project Assistant TERESIA K. WILMORE, Project Assistant WINFIELD SWANSON, Editor

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Brian Atwater, University of Washington, Seattle Bruce A. Bolt, University of California, Berkeley Adam M. Dziewonski, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts J. Freeman Gilbert, University of California, San Diego James E. Monsees, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc., Orange, California Stuart Nishenko, PG&E, San Francisco, California Terry Tullis, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Clarence R. Allen, professor emeritus, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena.

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Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Preface Recent earthquakes in California, Japan, Taiwan, and Turkey have demonstrated the devastating consequences of seismicity in large urban areas. Vulnerability to these seismic hazards can be reduced through scientific research in support of mitigation. However, applying this research to mitigation of seismic hazards has been a challenge. The study presented in this report was motivated by questions surrounding the effectiveness of the “knowledge-based” strategy taken by the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP). A series of critiques in the early to mid 1990s, including a 1995 report by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (1), concluded that the NEHRP approach short-changed practical measures for mitigating earthquake losses, creating an “implementation gap” in which risk-reduction efforts lagged far behind the knowledge base created by basic research. A preliminary review by the National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Seismology indicated that the debate over the structure of a national program for earthquake risk reduction lacked adequate information about the prospects for, and potential payoffs from, long-term basic research and the relationship of current research activities, both basic and applied, to mitigation efforts. Based on this assessment, a proposal was submitted to the National Academies, which established the Committee on the Science of Earthquakes and provided a grant from its endowment funds to assess the current scientific understanding of earthquake processes. In its work, the study committee will prepare a comprehensive summary of the multidisciplinary research throughout the earth and physical sciences on the origins, properties, and consequences of earthquakes, assess

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the research goals for the field of earthquake science, particularly as they support engineering and policy efforts to improve seismic mitigation strategies, and identify strategies to improve the communication of earthquake science to engineers, policy makers, and the general public. This report is meant to provide a technical reference for scientists, engineers, and policy makers concerned with understanding earthquakes and reducing society’s vulnerability to seismic hazards. To gather information for the study the committee met with representatives from government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and private sector companies concerned with earthquake research and engineering, hazard mitigation, and earthquake insurance. Briefings were provided by AXA Reinsurance, the Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Institute of Standards and Technology, National Science Foundation, Office of Science and Technology Policy, and U.S. Geological Survey. Input from the broader Earth science community was solicited through an editorial in Seismological Research Letters (2) and the committee’s web site, which included a series of white papers on different earthquake topics. Altogether the committee met eight times to gather information and prepare its report. The committee thanks the following individuals for making presentations or providing background material, figures, or other input: Cliff Astill, Aykut Barka, Harley Benz, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Margaret Boettcher, Steve Bratt, Robert Bucknam, George Budd, Rhett Butler, Wuchen Chi, Rob Clayton, Paula Davidson, James Dolan, Douglas Dreger, John Filson, Chris Goldfinger, Tom Henyey, Steve Hickman, Ken Hudnut, Jeff Kimball, Richard Krimm, Michael Mahoney, Jeff McGuire, Robert Nadeau, Amos Nur, Elaine Padovani, Robert Page, Gilles Peltzer, Eliza Richardson, Charles Rubin, Ronald Sack, Charles Sammis, Kaye Shedlock, David Simpson, Shyam Sunder, Louis Walter, Jim Whitcomb, Cecily Wolfe, Nicholas Woodward, Richard Wright, Howard Zebker, and Mark Zoback. The committee also thanks the staff of the National Research Council for their support of this project. Charles Meade obtained funding for the study and helped the committee generate most of the raw material for this report before he left the NRC to pursue a new career. Tammy Dickinson and Ellen Kappel provided figures and interim support to the committee. The committee is particularly grateful to Anne Linn, whose outstanding efforts brought this study to a successful conclusion. Thomas H. Jordan Chair

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NOTES 1.   Office of Technology Assessment, Reducing Earthquake Losses, OTA-ETI-623, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 162 pp., 1995. 2.   T.H. Jordan, Is the study of earthquakes a basic science? Seis. Res. Lett.,68, 259-261, 1997.

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Contents 1   THE CHALLENGE OF EARTHQUAKE SCIENCE   1     1.1 Seismic Safety and Performance,   2     1.2 Seismic Information for Emergency Response,   8     1.3 Basic Geoscience,   11     1.4 Education,   12     1.5 Predictive Understanding,   14     1.6 Organization of the Report,   15 2   RISE OF EARTHQUAKE SCIENCE   19     2.1 Early Speculations,   19     2.2 Discovery of Seismic Faulting,   23     2.3 Seismometry and the Quantification of Earthquakes,   31     2.4 Plate Tectonics,   36     2.5 Earthquake Mechanics,   47     2.6 Earthquake Prediction,   54     2.7 Earthquake Engineering,   65 3   FACING THE EARTHQUAKE THREAT   107     3.1 Types of Seismic Hazards,   107     3.2 Seismic Hazards in the United States,   121     3.3 Seismic Hazards Around the World,   137     3.4 Estimating Earthquake Risk,   147     3.5 Reducing Earthquake Risk,   151     3.6 Closing the Implementation Gap,   163

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4   OBSERVING THE ACTIVE EARTH: CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ROLE OF THE DISCIPLINES   176     4.1 Seismology,   177     4.2 Tectonic Geodesy,   201     4.3 Earthquake Geology,   216     4.4 Fault and Rock Mechanics,   229 5   EARTHQUAKE PHYSICS AND FAULT-SYSTEM SCIENCE   256     5.1 Earthquake Dynamics,   257     5.2 Fault Systems,   264     5.3 Fault-Zone Processes,   275     5.4 Rupture Dynamics,   282     5.5 Wave Propagation,   302     5.6 Seismic Hazard Analysis,   314 6   RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES AND REQUIREMENTS   350     6.1 Fault Characterization,   351     6.2 Global Earthquake Forecasting,   358     6.3 Fault-System Dynamics,   361     6.4 Fault-Zone Processes,   364     6.5 Earthquake Source Physics,   367     6.6 Ground-Motion Prediction,   369     6.7 Seismic Hazard Analysis,   376     6.8 Seismic Information Systems,   378     6.9 Partnerships for Public Education and Outreach,   379     6.10 Resource Requirements,   382 7   SUMMARY   384     7.1 Current Capabilities,   385     7.2 Science Goals,   386     7.3 Research Opportunities and Requirements,   388     7.4 Resource Requirements,   391 APPENDIX A   Major Federal Earthquake Programs   395 APPENDIX B   Acronyms and Abbreviations   399     INDEX   403