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Colloquium on The Future of Evolution National Acaclemy of Sciences Washington, D.C. 2000

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PNAS Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Contents Papers from the National Academy of Sciences Colloquium on The Future of Evolution INTRODUCTION 5389 The biotic crisis and the future of evolution Norman Myers and Andrew H. Knoll COLLOQUIUM PAPERS 5393 Lessons from the past: Evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions David Jablonski 5399 Lessons from the past: Biotic recoveries from mass extinctions Douglas H. Erwin 5404 Loss of speciation rate will impoverish future diversity Michael L. Rosenzweig 5411 What was natural in the coastal oceans? Jeremy B. C. Jackson 5419 The future of coral reefs Nancy Knowlton 5426 Disrupting evolutionary processes: The effect of habitat fragmentation on collared lizards in the Missouri Ozarks Alan R. Templeton, Robert J. Robertson, Jennifer Brisson, and Jared Strasburg 5433 Human-caused environmental change: Impacts on plant diversity and evolution David Tilman and Clarence Lehman 5441 Plant biology in the future F. A. Bazzaz 5446 The evolutionary impact of invasive species H. A. Mooney and E. E. Cleland 5452 Rapid plant diversification: Planning for an evolutionary future R. M. Cowling and R. L. Pressey 5458 Human-mod~fied ecosystems and future evolution David Western 5466 The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery Michael J. Novacek and Elsa E. Cleland 5471 Declines of blames and biotas and the future of evolution David S. Woodruff 5477 Intervening in evolution: Ethics and actions Paul R. Ehrlich 1 1