OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003

FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET

Committee on the FY 2003 Federal Science and Technology Budget

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003 FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET Committee on the FY 2003 Federal Science and Technology Budget Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Research Council supported this study. It was prepared by Committee on the FY 2003 Federal Science and Technology Budget under the aegis of the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP). COSEPUP is a joint committee of NAS, NAE, and IOM. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08538-1 This report is available on COSEPUP's World Wide Web site at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/cosepup Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET COMMITTEE ON THE FY 2003 FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET JAMES J. DUDERSTADT (Chair), President Emeritus and University Professor of Science and Engineering, Millennium Project, University of Michigan DAVID CHALLONER, Vice President for Health Affairs Emeritus and Interim Chair, Department of Health Policy and Epidemiology, University of Florida MILDRED DRESSELHAUS, Institute Professor of Electrical Engineering and Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JACK HALPERN, Louis Block Distinguished Service Professor of Chemistry Emeritus, University of Chicago ANITA JONES, Lawrence Quarles Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia SAMUEL PRESTON, Dean and Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography, The University of Pennsylvania PHILIP M. SMITH, Partner, McGeary and Smith MARK WRIGHTON, Chancellor, Washington University in St. Louis PETER H. HENDERSON, Study Director ELIZABETH BRIGGS, Administrative Assistant

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND PUBLIC POLICY MAXINE F. SINGER (Chair), President, Carnegie Institution of Washington BRUCE M. ALBERTS (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Sciences ENRIQUETA BOND, President, The Burroughs Wellcome Fund R. JAMES COOK, R. James Cook Endowed Chair in Wheat Research, Washington State University GERALD P. DINNEEN (Ex-Officio), Retired Vice President, Science and Technology, Honeywell, Inc. JAMES J. DUDERSTADT, President Emeritus and University Professor of Science and Engineering, Millennium Project, University of Michigan HARVEY V. FINEBERG (Ex-Officio), President, Institute of Medicine (since July 1, 2002) MARYE ANNE FOX, Chancellor, North Carolina State University RALPH E. GOMORY, President, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation RUBY P. HEARN, Senior Vice President, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation SAMUEL PRESTON, Dean and Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography, The University of Pennsylvania GERALD M. RUBIN, Vice President for Biomedical Research, Howard Hughes Medical Institute KENNETH I. SHINE (Ex-Officio), President, Institute of Medicine (through June 30, 2002) EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Professor and Chair, Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center, Columbia University HUGO F. SONNENSCHEIN, Charles L. Hutchinson Distinguished Service Professor, The University of Chicago PAUL E. TORGERSEN, John W. Hancock, Jr. Chair and President Emeritus, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University IRVING L. WEISSMAN, Karel and Avice Beekhuis Professor of Cancer Biology, Stanford University, School of Medicine SHEILA WIDNALL, Abby Rockefeller Mauze Professor of Aeronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WILLIAM A. WULF (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Engineering RICHARD E. BISSELL, Executive Director DEBORAH D. STINE, Associate Director MARION E. RAMSEY, Administrative Associate

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET Preface In 1995, the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council issued a report entitled Allocating Federal Funds for Science and Technology, which recommended tracking federal investments in the creation of new knowledge and technologies—what the report referred to as the federal science and technology budget (FS&T). The Academies' Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) has issued four reports in an annual series tracking the President's proposed FS&T budget and commenting on its potential impacts on our ability to meet national goals and sustain global leadership in science and engineering. This report is the fifth in this series and is designed to follow up and draw on earlier reports from the Academies on federal goals and funding for science and technology, as well as comment on the current fiscal year budget proposal. It is authored by the Committee on the FY 2003 Federal Science and Technology Budget under the aegis of COSEPUP. It is intended to inform Congressional Appropriators, the Administration, and other stakeholders as the FY 2003 appropriations process is concluded and proposals are developed for FY 2004. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Christopher T. Hill, George Mason University; Kei Koizumi, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Venkatesh Narayanamurti, Harvard University; Gilbert Omenn, University of Michigan; Paul M. Romer, Stanford University; Daniel R. Sarewitz, Columbia University; and Gabor Somorjai, University of California, Berkeley. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Floyd E. Bloom, Scripps Research Institute. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET The production of this report was the result of hard work in a short time period by the study committee. The Committee was assisted in this study by Peter Henderson, study director, and Elizabeth Briggs, administrative assistant. James Duderstadt, Chair Committee on the FY 2003 Federal Science and Technology Budget

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET Contents     Executive Summary   1      Introduction   5      National Goals for Science and Technology   6      Leadership in Science and Technology,   6      Allocating Federal Funds for Science and Technology,   6      The President's FY 2003 Federal Science and Technology Budget   7      The President's S&T Priorities,   8      The President's Proposal for FS&T in Other Agencies,   9      Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism,   11      Observations on the President's FS&T Budget Proposal   13      Priority-Driven Research,   13      Discovery-Oriented Research,   14      FS&T Spending and Human Resources,   18      Budget Action for FY 2003 and FY 2004,   20      Quality, Relevance, and Leadership   21      Conclusion   22     Appendixes       A National Research Council, Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education, Key Findings   35     B National Science Board, Federal Research Resources: Process for Setting Priorities, Recommendations   37

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OBSERVATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL YEAR 2003: FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET Figures and Tables FIGURES  1   Proposed Change in FS&T Spending, by Department or Agency, FY 2002–FY 2003 (millions of constant FY 2002 dollars),   10  2   Federal Funding for FS&T at NIH and at All Other Agencies Combined, FY 2000–FY 2003 (millions of constant FY 2002 dollars),   11  3   Full-time graduate enrollment in physics and mathematics, 1993–2000,   19  4   Research doctorates awarded by U.S. colleges and universities in physics and mathematics, 1993–2000,   19  5   Percentage Increase in FS&T Spending Proposed by the Administration Compared with Congressional Appropriation, by Department or Agency, FY 2001 to FY 2002 (constant FY 2002 dollars),   20 TABLE  1   Federal Science and Technology Budget, FY 2000–FY 2003 (millions of current dollars),   27  2   Federal Science and Technology Budget, FY 2000–FY 2003 (millions of constant FY 2002 dollars),   28  3   Proposed Percent Change in Constant Dollars in FS&T Spending by Agency and by Science Program, FY 2002–FY 2003,   29  4   Proposed Change in FS&T Spending by Department or Agency, FY 2002–FY 2003 (in millions of constant dollars),   30  5   Multi-Agency R&D Initiatives, FY 2001–FY 2003 (millions of constant FY 2002 dollars),   30  6   Federal Science and Technology Budget, FY 2001 Actual, FY 2002 Administration Proposal, and FY 2002 Congressional Appropriation (constant FY 2002 dollars),   31