REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT

NARSTO ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE ON PARTICULATE MATTER

Committee to Review NARSTO’s Scientific Assessment of Airborne Particulate Matter

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

In collaboration with

Royal Society of Canada United States-Mexico Foundation for Science (FUMEC)

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT NARSTO ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE ON PARTICULATE MATTER Committee to Review NARSTO’s Scientific Assessment of Airborne Particulate Matter NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES In collaboration with Royal Society of Canada United States-Mexico Foundation for Science (FUMEC) THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Contract No. X-825288-01-01 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08603-5 Additional copies of this report are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800–624–6242 202–334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V.Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm. A.Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council www.national-academies.org

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NARSTO’S SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT OF AIRBORNE PARTICIPATE MATTER Members JOE L.MAUDERLY (Chair), Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico MICHAEL BRAUER, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada MAURICIO HERNANDEZ-AVILA, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico NANCY KETE, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC CHARLES E.KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts WILLIAM LEISS, R.Samuel McLaughlin Centre for Population Health, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada GERARDO MANUEL MEJIA-VELAZQUEZ, Institute Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico LUISA T.MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts LYNN RUSSELL, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Project Staff K.JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer RAYMOND WASSEL, Senior Program Director LAURIE GELLER, Staff Officer AMANDA STAUDT, Postdoctoral Research Associate NORMAN GROSBLATT, Senior Editor MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Research Assistant RAMYA CHARI, Research Assistant EMILY SMALL, Senior Project Assistant KELLY CLARK, Editorial Assistant

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY1 Members GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle JOHN DOULL (Vice Chair), University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin THOMAS BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland JUDITH C.CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada CHRISTOPHER B.FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California WILLIAM H.GLAZE, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill SHERRI W.GOODMAN, Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, Virginia DANIEL S.GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, Virginia ROBERT HUGGETT, Michigan State University, East Lansing BARRY L.JOHNSON Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia JAMES H.JOHNSON, Howard University, Washington, D.C. JAMES A.MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan PATRICK V.O’BRIEN, Chevron Research and Technology, Richmond, California DOROTHY E.PATTON, International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, D.C. ANN POWERS, Pace University School of Law, White Plains, New York LOUISE M.RYAN, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts JONATHAN M.SAMET, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley LISA SPEER, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York G.DAVID TILMAN, University of Minnesota, St. Paul LAUREN A.ZEISE, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland Senior Staff JAMES J.REISA, Director DAVID J.POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology RAYMOND A.WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology ROBERTA M.WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis K.JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer SUSAN N.J.MARTEL, Senior Staff Officer SUZANNE VAN DRUNICK, Senior Staff Officer RUTH E.CROSSGROVE, Managing Editor 1   This study was planned, overseen, and supported by the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology.

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J.BARRON (Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania RAYMOND J.BAN, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia ROBERT C.BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ROSINA M.BIERBAUM, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan HOWARD B.BLUESTEIN, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma RAFAEL L.BRAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Massachusetts STEVEN F.CLIFFORD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado CASSANDRA G.FESEN, University of Texas at Dallas, Texas GEORGE L.FREDERICK, Vaisala Meteorological Systems, Inc., Boulder, Colorado JUDITH L.LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC MARGARET A.LEMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado MARIO J.MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts MICHAEL J.PRATHER, University of California, Irvine, California WILLIAM J.RANDEL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado RICHARD D.ROSEN, Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, Massachusetts THOMAS F.TASCIONE, Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska JOHN C.WYNGAARD, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY The Airliner Cabin Environment and Health of Passengers and Crew (2002) Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001) Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs (2001) Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001) A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001) Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000) Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research-Management and Peer-Review Practices (2000) Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000) Copper in Drinking Water (2000) Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000) Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999) Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999) Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter (three reports, 1998–2001) Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999) Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999) Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998) The National Research Council’s Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997) Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers (five reports, 1989–1995) Review of EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (three reports, 1994–1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I–IV (1991–1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academy Press (800) 624–6242 or (202) 334–3313 www.nap.edu

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter PREFACE NARSTO2 is a public-private partnership with members from government, utilities, industry, and academe in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. It was chartered in 1995 with a primary mission to coordinate and enhance policy-relevant atmospheric-science research on and assessment of tropospheric ozone. The scope of NARSTO’s activities was expanded in 1998 to include airborne particulate matter (PM). Shortly after it was founded, NARSTO asked the National Research Council to establish a committee that could offer guidance on scientific questions, integration and assessment, short- and long-term balance issues, and research priorities and that could review NARSTO’s program activities, progress, and draft products. The NRC Committee to Assess the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone Program was convened in 1997 and reviewed NARSTO’s first assessment, An Assessment of Tropospheric Ozone Pollution-A North American Perspective, released in 2000. After expanding its scope, NARSTO prepared a draft of NARSTO Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter. The assessment is intended to be a concise, scientifically credible, comprehensive discussion of atmospheric-science issues associated with managing ambient PM concentrations to meet adopted or proposed air-quality standards in the three North American nations. The assessment strives to provide policy-relevant scientific information without making specific policy recommendations. NARSTO requested that the NRC review the draft assessment in consultation with the Royal Society of Canada (RSC) and the United States-Mexico Foundation for Science (Fundacion Mexico Estados Unidos para la Ciencia, FUMEC). In response to that request, the NRC, in collaboration with RSC and FUMEC, created the Committee to Review NARSTO’s Assessment of Airborne Particulate Matter. A framework for collaboration throughout the review of the NARSTO assessment is described in a memorandum of understanding that was approved by the three organizations. 2   Originally, NARSTO stood for the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone; however, when its charter was expanded to include PM, the term NARSTO became simply a word signifying the partnership.

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter This report presents the committee’s consensus comments on the draft NARSTO assessment document dated December 31, 2001. Members of the public who wish to examine the draft assessment that was submitted to the committee should contact the National Academies Public Access Records Office at publicac@nas.edu. Several people assisted the committee by providing information related to issues addressed in this report. I gratefully acknowledge Jeremy Hales, NARSTO management coordinator; Jeffrey West, NARSTO associate management coordinator; Marjorie Shepard, Meteorological Service of Canada, NARSTO assessment cochair; James Vickery, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NARSTO assessment cochair; Peter McMurry, University of Minnesota, NARSTO assessment cochair; George Hidy, Envair/Aerochem; Geoff Flynn, RSC; and Guillermo Fernandez de al Garza, FUMEC. This report was reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purposes of the independent review were to provide candid and critical comments that assist the NRC in making the final report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft report of the committee remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following for their review of the report: Margarita Castillejos, Metropolitan Autonomous University; Susanne Hering, Aerosol Dynamics Inc.; Steve Hrudey, University of Alberta; John McConnell, York University; Paulette Middleton, RAND; Luis Gerardo Ruiz Suarez, National Autonomous University of Mexico; Milton Russell, Joint Institute for Energy and Environment; Sergio Sanchez, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment; and Andrew Sessler, E.O.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Richard Goody, Harvard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the committee and the institution. I am also grateful for the assistance of the National Research Council staff in preparing this report. Staff members who contributed to the effort include K.John Holmes, project director; Raymond Wassel, senior program director for environmental sciences and engineering in the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology (BEST); Warren Muir, executive director of the Division on Earth and Life Studies; James Reisa, director of BEST; Amanda Staudt, postdoctoral research associate; Laurie Geller, program officer in the Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate; Norman Grossblatt, senior editor; Mirsada Karalic-Loncarevic, research assistant; Ramya Chari, research assistant; and Emily Smail, senior project assistant.

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter Finally, I would like to thank all the members of the committee for their expertise and dedicated effort throughout the development of this report. Joe L.Mauderly, DVM Chair, Committee to Review NARSTO’s Scientific Assessment of Airborne Particulate Matter

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter CONTENTS     SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   6 2   OVERARCHING ISSUES   11     PM Conceptual Model and Framework for Informing Airborne-PM Management,   11     Other Content Issues,   13     Presentation Issues,   15 3   COMMENTS ON THE ASSESSMENT’S EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   17     Restructuring of the Executive Summary,   17     Other Comments on the Executive Summary,   18     Comments on the Policy Questions,   22 4   COMMENTS ON THE ASSESSMENT’S CHAPTERS AND RELATED APPENDIXES   31     Chapter 1: “Perspective and Context for Managing PM”,   31     Chapter 2: “Atmospheric Aerosol Processes: How Particles Change While Suspended in the Air”,   32     Chapter 3: “Emission Inventories”; Appendix A: “Emission Calculations and Inventory Listings”,   33     Chapter 4: “Gas and Particle Measurements”; Appendix B: “Measurements”,   34     Chapter 5: “Spatial and Temporal Characterization of Particulate Matter Concentration and Composition”; Appendix C: “Monitoring Data: Availability, Limitations, and Network Issues”; Appendix D: “Global Aerosol Transport”,   36     Chapter 6: “Receptor Methods for Source Apportionment—Beyond the Emission Inventories”,   39     Chapter 7: “Using Models to Estimate Particle Concentrations and Exposure”,   41

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter     Chapter 8: “Health Effects of Particulate Matter”,   43     Chapter 9: “Visibility Effects”,   44     Chapter 10: “Conceptual Descriptions of PM for Nine North American Regions”; Appendix E: “Conceptual Descriptions of Selected North American Sites”,   46     Chapter 11: “Recommendations”,   48 5   RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE NARSTO ASSESSMENTS   51     REFERENCES   53 ATTACHMENT A.   BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION ON THE COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NARSTO’S SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT OF AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER   57 ATTACHMENT B.   LINE-BY-LINE COMMENTS   60

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Review of the Narsto Draft Report: Narsto Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: NARSTO ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE ON PARTICULATE MATTER

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