Ronald Glaser (Chair), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Jane Booker, Los Alamos National Laboratory, on “PREDICT: A New Approach to System Performance Prediction”

Lawrence Crow, General Dynamics, on “An Integrated Reliability Growth Strategy at General Dynamics Advanced Technology Systems”

Walter Hollis (Discussant), Deputy Under Secretary of the Army

Arthur Fries (Discussant), Institute for Defense Analyses

10:30 a.m.


10:45 a.m.

Recent Developments in Reliability Growth Modeling


Patricia Jacobs (Chair), Naval Postgraduate School

Ananda Sen, Oakland University, on “Recent Developments in Reliability Growth Modeling: Duane Curve and Beyond”

Donald Gaver, Naval Postgraduate School, on “Reliability Growth in Stage-wise-Functioning Systems by Failure Mode Removal”

Paul Ellner (Discussant), Army Materiel System Analysis Activity

12:00 noon


1:00 p.m.

Use of Statistical Modeling to Join Developmental and Operational Testing Data


Pooling of data from diverse information sources (e.g., laboratory and developmental testing, operational testing, field and training exercise data, simulations).


Asit Basu (Chair), University of Missouri-Columbia

Duane Steffey, San Diego State University, on “Combining Information for Reliability Assessment”

Francisco Samaniego, University of California, Davis, on

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