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* Appendixes it.

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APPENDIX A Engineering Enrollments As Figure A-1 shows, the number of B.S. degrees in engineering has waxed and waned over the last 55 years. The number peaked at 78,172 in 1986 and then declined through the l990s to about 63,000. In 2001, the number rebounded slightly to 65,1 13. Engineering enrollments are trending up at the moment, so graduations may increase further if drop-outs do not exceed historical rates. The ratio of engineering B.S. degrees to the total number of bachelor's degrees has generally declined from about 10 percent in the l950s to 6 percent in the l990s (Figure Am. Decreasing enrollments through the 1980s and early l990s caused great con- cern in the engineering community because they suggest a decreasing interest among young students and their mentors in engineering as a career choice. The concern was and is exacerbated by the lack of information about why enrollment declined or what it ought to be. The National Science Foundation (NSF J 2000 Science and Engineering Indicators suggest that the issue is largely demographics in that the college-age population as a whole declined from 21.6 million in 1980 to 17.0 million in 2000. However, the number of students enrolled in college peaked in 1992 at 14.7 million (and has been flat since), 10 years after engineer- ing enrollments began to decline (NSB, 2000~. The Hlb visa program has probably softened the market for engineering graduates somewhat in the l990s, but the program began in 1990, eight years after the initial decline in engineering enrollments. Anecdotally, it has been sug- gested that some engineering schools began to emphasize Ph.D. programs during the 1980s, and, because they had fixed resources, including limited faculty, they compensated by limiting undergraduate enrollment. Another possible explana- tion is the response of engineering schools to the perceived strength or weakness 55 ~ . .

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56 120,000 1 0O,OOO 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 RAISING PUBLIC AWARENESS OF ENGINEERING l . . ! i~ ' r ^~ ~'~~~i;/ , ( ~ ~ ~ ~ t . . , ... , ~ . 1~ l Freshmen (Fall of AY Indicated) Bachelor's Degrees . 1945-1946 1955-1956 1965-1966 1975-1976 1985-1986 1995-1996 AcademicYear (AY) FIGURE A-1 Trends in College Enrollments and Graduations. Source: Engineering Trends, 2002. in the job market in their areas. Even though the U.S. economy was very strong throughout the l990s, global outsourcing of engineering was greatly increased. The impact this had on local job markets and a decision by some schools to restrict enrollments is not clear. Finally, the period in question coincides with the Information Technology revolution, which made engineering a more efficient activity. Estimating future needs is, of course, even more problematic. To a first approximation, we can assume that all engineers with degrees who are 55 or older will retire in the next 10 years. According to the NSF 2002 Indicators, there are about 340,500 of them, but only about two-thirds of them (about 227,000) are in the science and engineering (S&E) workforce. The 2002 Indicators projects that there will be 138,000 new engineering jobs between 2000 and 2010 (NSB, 2002~. Interestingly, that is a smaller percentage increase than expected for the economy overall- 10 percent versus 15 percent. In any event, 365,000 engineers will be needed by 2010. If present graduation trends continue, and if only two-thirds remain in the S&E workforce, about 420,000 engineers will be available. The demand for new graduates could decline further depending on the number of Hlb visas issued and the amount of outsourcing. The numbers are very uncertain,

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58 RAISING PUBLIC AWARENESS OF ENGINEERING however. The projected increase in engineering jobs could prove to be a gross underestimate. In any case, the number of engineering graduates in the United States does not compare favorably with the number graduated by our major global competi- tors (see Table A-1~. China produces three times as many as the United States, the European Union about twice as many, and Japan about two-thirds again as many. In terms of percentages, the ratio of engineering degrees to total under- graduate degrees in China is nearly nine times that of the United States, Japan four times, and the European Union three times. Thus, a substantially lower proportion of U.S. undergraduate students are studying engineering than the pro- TABLE A-1 International Comparison of Engineering Degrees Engineering Degrees Total Engineering Degrees Degrees Percentage Percentage of Total of 24-year- 24-year-oldsa Undergraduates oldsa US 1998 1,199,579 60,914 3,403,039 5.08% 1.79% 1996 1,179,815 63,114 3,671,000 5.35% 1.72% 1991h 1,107,997 62,187 3,584,000 5.61% 1.74% ., s Japan 1999 532,436 103,440 1,771,600 19.43% 5.84% 1997 524,512 102,951 1,870,700 19.63% 5.50% 1992b 400,103 81,355 1,787,400 20.33% 4.55% China 1999 440,935 195,354 20,047,600 44.30% 0.97% 1996 325,484 148,844 23,220,000 45.73% 0.64% 1992b 308,930 112,814 25,428,000 36.52% 0.44% EU 1999 - seenote 1,908,967 134,692 4,903,035 7.06% 2.75% 1997 - see note 1,070,238 139,020 4,975,100 12.99% 2.79% 1992 - see note 604,551 95,594 5,548,880 15.81% 1.72% Source: NSB, 1993, 2000, 2002. aData for 1991 and 1992 are for 22-year-olds. bData for 1992 data do not include Austria, Finland, and Sweden, which joined the European Union in 1995. Note: NSB 1999 data for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are from 1999; for Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden from 1998; for Portu- gal from 1996; and for Greece from 1993. NSB 1997 data are from 1997 for Austria, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden; for the United Kingdom from 1997; for Belgium, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain from 1996; and for Greece from 1993. NSB 1992 data from Austria, Finland, Greece, Sweden, the United Kingdom are from 1991; for Portugal from 1989; and for Bel- gium from 1988.

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A: APPENDIX A 59 portion in our major international competitors. The United States produces the second fewest engineering degrees per year for its 24-year-old population. In this comparison, only China produces a lower fraction, but it still produces about three times as many engineers on an absolute basis. U.S. students enrolling in engineering are overwhelmingly white males (Figure A-3. African Americans and Hispanics, who account for about 25 per- cent of the population, account for only about 6 percent of the engineering workforce and about 11 percent of engineering B.S. degrees. Women are also underrepresented. They account for only 19 percent of B.S. engineering gradu- ates, although the number of men and women in many other degree programs is about equal. Only about 2 percent of female B.S. recipients graduate in engineer- ing (Figure Am. Nevertheless, while total enrollments have been basically flat, the number of African American, Hispanic, and women enrollments have risen steadily over the last 20 years. Thus, underrepresented minority students and women have replaced white males, rather than increasing the pool. The preparation (or lack of preparation) of elementary and high school stu- dents for enrollment in engineering programs is an obvious source of concern. Some of the decline noted in Figure A-1, above, could be attributed to students recognizing that they do not have the necessary math and science background to succeed in the engineering curriculum. An indication of the alarming decline in performance among elementary and secondary students is shown in the Third International Math and Science Survey (NSB, 2002~. In a comparison of perfor- mance with students in other countries, U.S. fourth graders had average scores in - ., U.S. Population Asian American 3.6% Other/Multiethnic Native American \ 0.7% \ \\ / African American I 12.1% \ U.S. Engineers 1 9% Hispanic / 12.5% Non-Hispanic White 69.1% Asian American 10.9% Native American nook\ African American 2.6% Non-Hispanic White 82.7% Hispanic 3.5% rho / FIGURE A-3 Minorities in Engineering. Source: Adapted from U.S. Census Bureau, 2000; NSB, 2000.

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APPENDIX A Physics Scores I above I U.S. Norway Sweden I(Russian Federation; (Denmark) (~ovenia) (Germany) (Australia) (Cyprus) Switzerland Latvia) Greece tcanada) France Czech Republic Scores f (Austna) s miter to ~ U.S. '< (United States) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 International average = 501 NOTE: Countries not meeting internatron~ guidelines are shown in parentheses. ~ France | (Russian Federation) Switzerland Scores above U.S. Scores similar to U.S. (Australia) (Denmark) (Cyprus) (Lithuania Greece Sweden Canada (Slovenia) f (Hay) Czech Republic Germany) (United states (hustna 61 Advanced mathematics 0 100 ~00 300 400 500 60C 70( Int~mational average = 501 FIGURE A-S Average scores on physics and advanced mathematics assessment for stu- dents in the final year of secondary school: 1994-1995. Source: Mullis et al., 1998. math and well-above average scores in science. Eighth graders were 22 points below average in math and 9 points below average in science. Figure A-5 shows, by the twelfth grade, U.S. students are 60 to 70 points below average compared to students in many other countries. REFERENCES Burton, L., and L. Parker. Forthcoming. The Education and Employment of Engineering Graduates. Arlington, Va: National Science Foundation. Engineering Trends. 2002. First-year Enrollments and BS Degrees. Available online at www.engtrends.com. Engineering Workforce Commission of the American Association of Engineering Societies. 2000. Bachelor's degrees rising. Engineers 6(4):1-4. Mullis, I., M. Martin, A. Beaton, E. Gonzalez, D. Kelly, and T. Smith. 1998. Mathematics and Sci- ence Achievement in the Final Year of Secondary School: ITEA's Third International Math- ematics Study (TIMSS). Chestnut Hill, Mass.: Boston College, TIMSS International Study Center. NSB (National Science Board). 1993. Science and Engineering Indicators-1993. NSB-93-1. Arling- ton, Va: National Science Foundation. NSB. 2000. Science and Engineering Indicators-2000. NSB-00-1. Arlington, Va: National Science Foundation. NSB. 2002. Science and Engineering Indicators-2002. NSB-02-1. Arlington, Va: National Science Foundation. U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. Population and Housing Tables. Available online at www.census.gov/ population/www/cen2000/phc-t 1.html.