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FRONTIERS IN Ara'"' '' T! In A RESFARCH Food, Health, Environment, and Communities Committee on Opportunities in Agriculture BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES DIVISION ON EARTH AND LIFE STUDIES NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. 59-0790-9-172 between the National Academy of Sciences and the US Department of Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda- tions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-08494-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2002115520 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metro- politan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Suggested citation: National Research Council, 2003. Frontiers in Agricultural Research: Food, Health, Environment, and Communities. Committee on Opportunities in Agriculture (Washington, DC: National Academies Press). Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meet- ing national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of . ~ . . . engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the respon- sibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www. nationa l-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN AGRICULTURE LAURIAN J. UNNEVEHR,~ Chair, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois FRANKLIN M. LOEW,2 Becker College, Worcester, Massachusetts RANSOM L. BALDWIN, JR., University of California, Davis, California ROGER N. BEACHY, Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, St. Louis, Missouri CAROLYN BRANCH BROOKS, University of Maryland, Eastern Shore, Princess Anne, Maryland ELIZABETH A. CHORNESKY, The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California EDWARD A. HILER, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas WALLACE E. HOFFMAN, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa LONNIE J. KING, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan LAWRENCE N. KUZMINSKI, Consultant, Duxbury, Massachusetts WILLIAM B. LACY, University of California, Davis, California THOMAS L. LYON, Cooperative Resources International, Shawano, Wisconsin KRISTEN MCNUTT, Consumer Choices, Inc., Santa Cruz, California WILLIAM L. OGREN (retired), Hilton Head Island, South Carolina DAVID PIMENTEL, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York ROBERT REGINATO (retired), Chandler, Arizona JOHN W. SUTTIE, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin Staff CLARA COHEN, Study Director (since September 2001) DAVID MEEKER, Study Director (until September 2001) NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Senior Editor LUCYNA KURTYKA, Program Officer (until July 2000) MICHAEL R. KISIELEWSKI, Research Assistant HEATHER CHRISTIANSEN, Research Associate (until September 2001) JOE ESPARZA, Project Assistant LAURA BOSCHINI, Project Assistant (until September 2001) ~ Chair from March 2002 to December 2002. 2 Chair from July 2000 to March 2002. v

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COMMITTEE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN AGRICULTURE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT RAY GOLDBERG, Chair, Harvard Business School, Boston, Massachusetts JULIAN ALSTON, University of California, Davis, California LAWRENCE M. BUSCH, Institute for Food and Agricultural Standards, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan CHRISTINE BRUHN, University of California, Davis, California PIERRE CROSSON, Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC BRIAN HALWEIL, WorldWatch Institute, Washington, DC FRED HARRISON, JR., Fort Valley State University, Fort Valley, Georgia CAROL KEISER, C-BAR Cattle Company, Inc., Champaign, Illinois TERRY L. ROE, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota LAURIAN J. UNNEVEHR, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois vim

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COMMITTEE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN AGRICULTURE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND NATURAL RESOURCES G. PHILIP ROBERTSON, Chair, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, Michigan JENNY BROOME, University of California, Davis, California ELIZABETH CHORNESKY, The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California JANE FRANKENBERGER, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana PAUL JOHNSON, Oneota Slopes Farm, Decorah, Iowa MARK LIPSON, Organic Farming Research Foundation, Santa Cruz, California JOHN MIRANOWSKI, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa JAMES MOSELEY,~ Infinity Pork, Clark Hills, Indiana ELIZABETH OWENS, Monsanto Company, Chesterfield, Missouri DAVID PIMENTEL, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York LORI ANN THRUPP, Environmental Protection Agency, San Francisco, California Resigned April 9, 2001. . . vat

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COMMITTEE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN AGRICULTURE SUBCOMMITTEE ON FOOD AND HEALTH SUSAN HARLANDER, Chair, BIOrational Consultants, Inc., New Brighton, Minnesota LESTER M. CRAWFORD, JR., Association of American Veterinary Colleges, Washington, DC JOAN R. DAVENPORT, Washington State University, Prosser, Washington REBECCA DOYLE,2 Andrew s, Doyle, and Associates, Gillespie, Illinois DONALD N. DUVICK, Iowa State University, Johnston, Iowa JOSEPH JEN,3 California State Polytechnic University, San Luis Obispo, California JOHN B. KANEENE, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan LAWRENCE N. KUZMINSKI, Duxbury, Massachusetts ARNO G. MOTULSKY, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DAVID L. PELLETIER, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York JEAN A. T. PENNINGTON, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland MAX ROTHSCHILD, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa ANDREW SCHMITZ, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida JOHN W. SUTTIE, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin ~ Resigned February 28, 2002. 2 Resigned July 20, 2001. 3 Resigned April 9, 2001. . . . vail

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BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES HARLEY W. MOON, Chair, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa SANDRA BARTHOLMEY, Quaker Oats Company, Barrington, Illinois DEBORAH BLUM, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin ROBERT B. FRIDLEY, University of California, Davis, California BARBARA P. GLENN, Federation of Animal Science Societies, Bethesda, Maryland LINDA F. GOLODNER, National Consumers League, Washington, DC W. R. GOMES, University of California, Oakland, California PERRY R. HAGENSTEIN, Institute for Forest Analysis, Planning, and Policy, Wayland, Massachusetts CALESTOUS JUMA, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JANET C. KING, University of California, Davis, California WHITNEY MACMILLAN (retired), Cargill, Inc., Minneapolis, Minnesota TERRY L. MEDLEY, DuPont BioSolutions Enterprise, Wilmington, Delaware ALICE N. FELL, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York SHARRON S. QUISENBERRY, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana NANCY J. RACHMAN, Novigen Sciences, Inc., Washington, DC SONYA B. SALAMON, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois G. EDWARD SCHUH, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota BRIAN J. STASKAWICZ, University of California, Berkeley, California JACK WARD THOMAS, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana JAMES H. TUMLINSON, Agriculture Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Gainesville, Florida B.L. TURNER, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts Staff DAVID MEEKER, Director (until September 2001) JULIE ANDREWS, Administrative Assistant (until May 2002) Six

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Preface Rapid and dramatic social, economic, and technologic changes have occurred in the food and agricultural sector during the last 30 years. These include increased global competition, the advent of biotechnology and precision produc- tion, changes in intellectual property rights, increased product differentiation, greater demand for ecosystem services from agriculture, and changes in farm and market structure. Thirty years have passed since the publication of the 1972 report of the National Research Council Committee on Research Advisory to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the time is now ripe for reflection on the progress and future directions of federally funded agricultural research, edu- cation, and extension. The USDA asked the Research Council's Board on Agri- culture and Natural Resources (BANR) to conduct a study to examine and evaluate the quality of research conducted in USDA's Research, Education, and Economics (REE) mission area and to provide recommendations for future research. The request responded to a congressional mandate in the 1998 Agricul- tural Research, Extension, and Education Reform Act for the National Academy of Sciences to conduct a study of the role and mission of federally funded agricul- tural research, extension, and education (see Appendix A). To respond to the request, BANR convened four ad hoc study panels a synthesis committee and three subcommittees addressing specific components of agricultural research, education, and extension: food and fiber supply, food safety, diet, and nutrition; environmental quality and natural resources; and eco- nomic and social development in a global context. The panels represent a wide array of expertise and include those with knowledge of public and private agri- cultural research and those who use or are affected by the results of the research. Many members of the panels have experience in and understanding of the x~

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. . . xvit! Acknowledgments BOBBY ACORD, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service NATE BAUER, Food Safety and Inspection Service JAMES BLAYLOCK, Economic Research Service RON BOSECKER, National Agricultural Statistics Service GEORGE BRALEY, Food and Nutrition Service LAWRENCE CLARK, Natural Resources Conservation Service JOHN CLIFFORD, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service NEILSON CONKLIN, Economic Research Service RON DEHAVEN, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service RICHARD DUNKLE, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service ALBERTA FROST, Food and Nutrition Service PHIL FULTON, Economic Research Service MARGARET GLAVIN, Food Safety and Inspection Service FLOYD HORN, Agricultural Research Service COLIEN HEFFERAN, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Exten- sion Service JAMES LITTLE, Farm Services Agency SUSAN OFFUTT, Economic Research Service KATHERINE SMITH, Economic Research Service RALPH STAFKO, Food Safety and Inspection Service The committee acknowledges those who assisted the National Research Council staff during preparation of the report by providing information and statistics to the committee: RICHARD BRENNER, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture KAREN BROWNELL, Office of Human Resources, Research, Education, and Economics, US Department of Agriculture GEORGE COOPER, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, US Department of Agriculture KELLY DAY-RUBENSTEIN, Economic Research Service, US Depart- ment of Agriculture JANICE GOODWIN, National Agricultural Statistics Service, US Depart- ment of Agriculture RALPH HEIMLICH, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture EILEEN HERRERA, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture VIRGINIA HOUK, US Environmental Protection Agency KEI KOIZUMI, American Association for the Advancement of Science MEL MATHIAS, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, US Department of Agriculture

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Acknowledgments SARA MAZIE, Office of the Undersecretary, Research, Education, and Economics, US Department of Agriculture ARLYNE MEYERS, Office of International Programs, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture ax MARCIA MOORE, Office of Scientific Quality Review, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture DAVID RUST, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture RICHARD SCHUCHARDT, National Agricultural Statistics Service, US Department of Agriculture DEBORAH SHEELY, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Exten- sion Service, US Department of Agriculture VICKI SMITH, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture DENNIS UNGLESBEE, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, US Department of Agriculture RICHARD WYATT, National Institutes of Health, US Department of Health and Human Services The committee is extremely grateful to the staff members of the National Research Council Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources for their efforts throughout the study process and in the preparation of this report. The committee acknowledges Gregory Symmes, Associate Executive Director of the National Research Council Division on Earth and Life Studies, for providing guidance in the latter stages of the project. We are especially grateful to Clara Cohen, Study Director, for her extraordinary efforts and leadership in coordinating the work of all the committees and for overseeing the preparation and completion of this report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manu- script remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: JOANNE CHORY, Salk Institute for Biological Studies RALPH CICERONE, University of California, Irvine RONALD ESTABROOK, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center ROBERT B. FRIDLEY, University of California, Davis BETH LAUTNER, National Pork Board

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xx Acknowledgments ALAN I. LESHNER, American Association for the Advancement of Science LINDA LOBAO, Ohio State University NOREEN NOONAN, National Space Science and Technology Center PHILIP PARDEY, University of Minnesota BARBARA SCHNEEMAN, University of California, Davis SAM SMITH, Washington State University M.S. SWAMINATHAN, M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation MICHAEL TAYLOR, Resources for the Future CAROL TUCKER FOREMAN, Consumer Federation of America Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recom- mendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Enriqueta Bond, Burroughs Wellcome Fund, and James Zuiches, Washington State University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institu- tional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author committee and the institution.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Changing Context of Agricultural Research, 2 A Vision of Agricultural Research, 3 Frontiers in Agricultural Research, 4 Setting the Research Strategy, 6 Collaboration, 9 Quality and Impact Assurance, 10 REE Capacity, 11 Looking to the Future, 14 VISION AND LEADERSHIP Changing Public Attitudes and Needs, 16 Recent Innovations in Science and Technology, 19 A Vision for the Future, 21 Summary, 24 References, 25 15 THE US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE RESEARCH, 27 EDUCATION, AND ECONOMICS MISSION AREA Reorganization of the US Department of Agriculture, 28 Functions and Strategic Objectives of the Research, Education, and Economics Mission Area, 30 Research, Education, and Economics Agencies, 30 Summary, 36 References, 36 xx

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3 RESEARCH FRONTIERS Globalization, 39 Emerging Pathogens and Other Hazards in the Food-Supply Chain, 42 Nutrition and Human Health, 45 Environmental Stewardship, 49 Quality of Life in Rural Communities, 52 Advancing the Frontiers, 54 Summary, 61 References, 61 4 SETTING THE RESEARCH STRATEGY Funding Sources and Trends, 68 REE and Agency Decision-Making, 72 Summary, 92 References, 92 COLLABORATION Multidisciplinary Research, 96 Collaboration within REE, 100 Collaboration in the Federal Government, 102 International Collaboration, 105 Collaboration with the Private Sector, 108 Future Strategies to Manage Public-Private Collaboration, 114 Summary, 115 References, 115 6 QUALITY AND IMPACT ASSURANCE IN THE REE AGENCIES Quality Assurance, 119 Impact Assessment, 133 Summary, 142 References, 142 7 REE CAPACITY Organizational Capacity, 146 Professional Skills, Expertise, and Training, 150 Information Capacity: REE Efforts in Data Management, Collection and Sharing, 161 Infrastructure Capacity: Research Facilities, 165 Summary, 167 References, 167 . . xx 38 67 96 119 146

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8 CODA APPENDIXES A S.1150.1998. Apdcul~ Rcsc~cb, Extension, and Education Rctonn Act of 1998 B SubcomndUcc St~cmcn~ of Task ~ A Nabokov Rcsc~b Coun~1 Public WodEsbop D RUSE Adnd~s~or Inlorvic~s ~ Achon-Apcncy Adnd~s~or Inks F Apdcul~-Rcsc~cb Funding G REE D~sondnabon and Ou~cacb [Abets ABOUT THE AUTHORS ABOUT THE SUBCOhihTITTEES 169 173 175 177 ~ 0~ 10~ 184 ~ 0~ 10O 204 217 . . . ~111

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Tables, Figures, and Boxes TABLES 4-1 4-2 5-1 6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 6-6 7-1 7-2 7-3 7-4 7-5 F-1 F-2 REE Mechanisms for Ensuring Stakeholder Input, page 86 Membership Categories, Represented in the National Agricultural Research, Extension, Education, and Economics Advisory Board, 87 Visiting Scientists at ARS, 1998-2001, 105 USDA Technology Transfer Activities, 1987-2000, 109 Summary of REE Quality-Assurance Mechanisms, 121 Results of February 2000-August 2001 Review of Six ARS National Programs, 125 1999-2000 Intramural (ARS and ERS) Recipients of Major Awards Sponsored by External Organizations, 132 World Institutional Rankings in Select Fields, by Total Citations,1991- 2001, 134 Internal Rates of Return from US Public-Sector Agricultural Research, 136 Internal Rates of Return from US Extension, 137 REE Professional Employment in Science-Related Occupations, as of June 10, 2001, 151 Demographic Composition of REE Technical Staff, 152 ARS Postdoctoral Employment, 157 Funding Levels for the ARS Postdoctoral Program, 1985-2002, 157 Summary of CSREES-Administered Higher Education Programs, 160 Research, Education, and Economics by Agency for FY 1985-2001 actual, and FY 2002 Estimate, 186 Total R&D by Agency, FY 1976-2003, 188 xxv

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xxv! F-3 F-4 F-5 F-6 F-7 F-8b F-11 1-1 2-1 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 2-1 2-2 3-1 3-2 4-1 4-2 4-3 5-1 Tables, Figures, and Boxes Agricultural Research Funding in the Public and Private Sectors,1970- 1998, 190 Amount and Distribution of Major Sources of Revenues of US State Agricultural Experiment Stations, 1980-2000, 192 Sources of Revenue for REE Intramural Research Expenditures, 1980- 2000, 192 REE Agency Funding Allocation by Goal, FY 2000, 194 National Summary USDA, State Agricultural Experiment Stations, and Other Institutions, FY 2000, 195 F-8a Research, Education, and Economics by Function, Agency, and Type of Award for FY 1985-2001 Actual and 2002 Estimate, 196 Research, Education, and Economics by Function, Agency, and Type of Award for FY 1985-2001 Actual and 2002 Estimate, 198 F-9 ARS Funding of Cooperative Activities, 1998-2001, 200 F- 1 Oa Congressional Earmarks for ARS Research and CSREES Research, Edu- cation, and Extension, Nominal Dollars, 201 F-lOb Congressional Earmarks for ARS Research and CSREES Research, Edu- cation, and Extension, Constant 2000 Dollars, 202 Price Index for Research, 2000 Constant Dollar R&D Deflators, 203 FIGURES Growth in agricultural productivity, output, and inputs (1948-1996), page 16 US Department of Agriculture Headquarters Organization, 29 Research, Education, and Economics budget authority by agency for FY 1985-2001 actual and 2002 estimate, 68 Total public and private expenditures, 1970-1998, 70 FY 2000 funding allocation by REE goal, 75 Total CSREES research funding by function, 79 BOXES REE Desired Outcomes and Strategic Objectives, 32 The 22 National Programs of ARS, 34 Research on Relevant Spatial and Temporal Scales, 56 Finding Resources to Explore Research Frontiers, 59 CSREES Competitive-Grant Programs, 81 Examples of REE Responsiveness to Stakeholder Input, 89 Stakeholder Participation and SARE, 90 Research Partnerships in Which REE Has Provided Leadership, 101 Collaborative Activities Through Cooperative Research and Develop- ment Agreements (CRADAs), 112

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Tables, Figures, and Boxes 6-1 6-2 6-3 7-1 7-2 G-1 G-2 xxv Criteria for Review of NIH and ARS Intramural Research: son, 126 Research Position Evaluation System at ARS and the Economist Posi- tion Classification System at ERS, 131 Examples of REE Research Impacts, 139 The Agricultural Research Service Demonstration Project, 155 CSREES Investments in Higher Education, 162 Is ARS Highlighting Its Most Important Research? A Missed Opportu- nity, 205 The Carl Hayden Bee Research Center, 206 A Compari-

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