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Research
Briefings
..
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Research
Briefing
for the Office of Science and Technology Policy,
the National Science Foundation,
and Selectec! Federal Departments and Agencies
Committee on Science, Engineering,
and Public Policy
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1988
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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a private, self-perpetuating society of distinguished
scholars in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology
and their use for the general welfare. Under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, the Acad-
emy has a working mandate that calls upon it to advise the federal government on scientific and techni-
cal matters. The Academy carries out this mandate primarily through the National Research Council,
which it jointly administers with the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine.
Dr. Frank Press is President of the NAS.
The National Academy of Engineering (NAE) was established in 1964, under the charter of the NAS,
as a parallel organization of distinguished engineers, autonomous in its administration and in the se-
lection of members, sharing with the NAS its responsibilities for advising the federal government. Dr.
Robert M. White is President of the NAE.
The Institute of Medicine (IOM) was chartered in 1970 by the NAS to enlist distinguished members of
appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health sciences and
health of the public. In this, the Institute acts under both the Academy's 1863 congressional charter
responsibility to be an adviser to the federal government and its own initiative in identifying issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is President of the IOM.
The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy is a joint committee of the National Acad-
emy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It includes mem-
bers of the councils of all three bodies.
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant LPA8501382.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 87-63132
International Standard Book Number 0-309-03828-6
Copyright C) 1988 by the National Academy of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in
the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or other-
wise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for pur-
poses of official use by the United States government.
Printed in the United States of America
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Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy
GILBERT S. OMENN, Dean, School of
Public Health and Community Medicine,
University of Washington, Seattle
(Chairman)
H. NORMAN ABRAMSON, Executive
Vice-President, Southwest Research
Tnstitute, San Antonio, Tex.
ALBERT M. CLOGSTON, Center for
Materials Science, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, N. Mex.
*W. DALE COMPTON, Senior Fellow,
National Academy of Engineering,
Washington, D.C.
PHILIP M. CONDIT, Executive
Vice-President, Boeing Commercial
Airplane Company, Seattle, Wash.
EMILlO Q. DADDARTO, Wilkes, Artis,
Hedrick and Lane, Attorneys at Law,
Washington, D.C.
GERALD P. DINNEEN, Vice President,
Science and Technology, Honeywell, Tnc.
Minneapolis, Minn.
ALFRED P. FISHMAN, William Maul
Measey Professor of Medicine, and
Director, Cardiovascular-Pulmonary
Division, University of Pennsylvania
School of Medicine, Philadelphia
*Term expired June 30, 1987
V
RALPH E. GOMORY, Senior
Vice-President and Chief Scientist, IBM
Corporation, Armonk, N. Y.
ZVT GRTETCHES, Nathaniel Ropes
Professor of Political Economy, Harvard
University, Cambriclge, Mass.
ARTHUR KELMAN, Wisconsin Alumni
Research Foundation, Senior Research
Professor of Plant Pathology and
Bacteriology, Department of Plant
Pathology University of Wisconsin,
Madison
FRANCIS E. LOW, Institute Professor,
Department of Physics, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge
*EDWARD A. MASON, Vice
President-Research, Amoco Corporation,
Amoco Research Center, Naperville, TIl.
CORNELIUS l. PINGS, Provost, University
of Southern California, Los Angeles
JOHN D. ROBERTS, Tnstitute Professor of
Chemistry, Division of Chemistry and
Chemical Engineering, California
Tnstitute of Technology, Pasadena
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KENNETH l. RYAN, Kate Macy Ladd
Professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology,
Harvard Medical School, and Chairman,
Department of Obstetrics and
Gynecology, Brigham and Women's
Hospital, Boston, Mass.
*LEON T. STEVER, William M. Keck
Foundation Professor of Geology,
Division of Geological and Planetary
Sciences, California Institute of
Technology, Pasadena
HERBERT A. SIMON, Richard King Mellon
University Professor, Department of
Computer Science and Psychology,
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh,
Pa.
*Term expired June 30, 1987
V1
Ex Officio
FRANK PRESS, President, National
Academy of Sciences
ROBERT M. WHITE, President, National
Academy of Engineering
SAMUEL O. THTER, President, institute of
Medicine
COSEPUP Staff
ALLAN R. HOFFMAN, Executive Director
MYRON F. UMAN, Associate Executive
Director
BARBARA A. CANDLAND,
Administrative Coordinator
CATHY D. DYSON, Senior Secretary
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RESEARCH BRIEFING TOPICS
Topics cited below are followecI by the names of units that providecl staff support for their devel-
opment. A collectect volume is publishecl each year as Research Briefings 1987, Research Briefings
1986, etc., by the National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
1987
I. Order, Chaos, and Patterns: Aspects of
Nonlinearity (Commission on Physical Sci-
ences, Mathematics, and Resources)
Biological Control in Managed
Ecosystems (Commission on Life Sciences)
3. Chemical Processing of Materials and
Devices for Information Storage and
Handling (Commission on Physical Sci-
ences, Mathematics, and Resources)
4. High-Temperature Superconductivity
(Committee on Science, Engineering, and
Public Policy)
1986
I. Science of Interfaces anct Thin Films
(Commission on PhysicaZ Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
2. Decision Making and Problem Solving
(Commission on Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education)
3. Protein Structure and Biological Function
(Institute of Medicine)
4. Prevention and Treatment of Viral
Diseases (Institute of Medicine)
1985
Remote Sensing of the Earth (Commission
on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and
Resources)
Pain and Pain Management (Institute of
Medicine)
3. Biotechnology in Agriculture (Board on
Agriculture)
4. Weather Prediction Technologies
(Commission on PhysicaZ Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
5. Ceramics and Ceramic Composites
. .
V11
(Commission on Engineering and Technical
Systems)
6. Scientific Frontiers and the
Superconducting Super Collider
(Commission on Physical Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
7. Computer Vision and Pattern
Recognition (Commission on PhysicaZ
Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources)
1984
I. Computer Architecture (Commission on
Engineering and Technical Systems)
2. Tn-formation Technology in Precollege
Education (National Academy of Sciences)
3. Chemical and Process Engineering for
Biotechnology (Commission on Physical
Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources)
4. High-Performance Polymer Composites
(Commission on Physical Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
5. Biology of Oncogenes (Institute of
Medicine)
6. Interactions Between Blood and Blood
Vessels (Tnclucling the Biology of
A t h e r 0 s c ~ e r 0 s i s ~ ~ ~ n s t i t u t e 0 f M e ~ i c i n e
7. Biology of Parasitism (Institute of
Medicine)
S. Solar-Terrestrial Plasma Physics
(Commission on PhysicaZ Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
9. Selected Opportunities in Physics
(Commission on PhysicaZ Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
1983
I. Selected Opportunities in Chemistry
(Commission on Physical Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
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2. Cognitive Science and Artificial
Intelligence (Commission on Behavioral and
·SociaZ Sciences and Education)
3. Immunology (Institute of Medicine)
4. Solid Earth Sciences (Commission on
PhysicaZ Sciences, Mathematics, anct
Resources)
5. Computers in Design and Manufacturing
(Commission on Engineering and Technical
Systems)
O c,
1982
I. Mathematics (Commission on PhysicaZ
Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources)
2. Atmospheric Sciences (Commission on
PhysicaZ Sciences, Mathematics, and
Resources)
3. Astronomy and Astrophysics
(Commission on PhysicaZ Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources)
4. Agricultural Research (Board on
Agriculture)
5. Neuroscience (Institute of Medicine)
6. Materials Science (Commission on
Engineering and Technical Systems)
7. Human Health Effects of Hazardous
Chemical Exposures (Commission on Life
Sciences)
vail
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Preface
Research Briefings 1987 is the sixth volume
of research briefing reports published by the
Committee on Science, Engineering, and
Public Policy (COSEPUP). * It brings to 36 the
number of such reports prepared on a broad
range of topics since the first volume in 1982
(see the list of topics on page vii). The brief-
ings are prepared at the request of the Presi-
dent's Science Advisor, who also serves as
Director of the Office of Science and Technol-
ogy Policy (OSTP), and the Director of the
National Science Foundation (NSF).
The four reports in this collection are on
the topics High-Temperature Superconduc-
tivity; Chemical Processing of Materials and
Devices for information Storage anc! Han-
dling; Order, Chaos, and Patterns: Aspects
of Nonlinearity; and Biological Control in
Managed Ecosystems. The superconductiv-
ity briefing was prepared at the specific re-
quest of the NSF director after the 1987 brief-
ing activity was under way, in response to
the exciting new clevelopments in supercon-
ductivity in ceramic oxicle materials an-
nounced early in 1987.
*COSEPUP is a joint committee of the National Acad-
emy of Sciences (NAS), the National Academy of Engi-
neering (NAE), and the Institute of Medicine (IOM).
1X
Research briefing topics generally are se-
lected by the OSTP and NSF directors in the
late fall in response to suggestions put for-
warcl by CO SEPUP. CO SEPUP' s sugge s-
tions are selected from a much larger list of
suggestions offered by the commissions and
boards of the National Research Council
(NRC); members of the NAS, NAE, and
TOM Councils; members of COSEPUP; as
well as officials of the NSF and the OSTP. In-
dividual briefings are designed to assess the
status of a field and identify high-leverage
research opportunities and barriers to
progress in the field (inclucling where appro-
priate, progress in commercial exploitation).
They also assess U. S. capabilities in the field
vis-a-vis those in other nations. The brief-
ings are then prepared by panels of experts,
usually in the spring, with the day-to-day as-
sistance of NRC staff. This schedule allows
time for COSEPUP review in late spring and
presentation of the briefings, in both oral
and written form, to federal officials early in
the upcoming fiscal year's budget prepara-
tion cycle. The briefing reports, both in indi-
vidual form and as an annual collection, are
then published by the National Academy
Press.
Over the years the value of these relatively
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brief but comprehensive overviews of vari-
ous frontier fields of science and technology
has been recognized more broadly. The in-
formation provided by the research briefings
proved to be of value not only to government
officials responsible for R&D planning and
budget preparation, but also to officials of in-
dustry and to university personnel responsi-
ble for setting research priorities. Foreign
science and technology officials have also
shown strong interest in the research brief-
ing reports. Most of the credit must go to the
volunteer experts who serve on the panels,
and to the NRC units and staff who so ably
support the panels' day-to-day activities. ~
also want to acknowledge the confidence
and continued support of the OSTP and the
NSF for the research briefing activity, as well
as the efforts of my colleagues on COSEPUP
who serve so effectively as reviewers of the
reports. it is only through the efforts of all
these individuals and groups that prepara-
tion of the reports is possible.
Gilbert S. Omenn, Chairman
Committee on Science, Engineering,
and Public Policy
x
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Contents
Report of the Research Briefing Pane! on
High-Temperature Superconductivity
Report of the Research Briefing Panel on
Chemical Processing of Materials and
Devices for Information Storage and Handling
Report of the Research Briefing Pane! on
Order, Chaos, and Patterns: Aspects of Nonlinearity
Report of the Research Briefing Panel on
Biological Control in Managed Ecosystems
X1
...................... 1
. . .25
.39
.......... 55
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