The tactical goal is to minimize risk while maximizing the possible advantage of the environment. The METOC goal is to facilitate that objective through perfect knowledge of the environment.

In a world of perfect environmental knowledge, decisions made by leaders in mission planning could be perfect.⁵ However, constraints of both a physical nature and a fiscal nature will always limit our ability to know and predict natural systems. It is the introduction of uncertainty due to environmental unknowns that has risk and introduces cost. Thus, reduction of this uncertainty is the goal of the naval METOC enterprise, and it is the cost of the uncertainty that provides a gauge for the value of METOC knowledge.

It is a central hypothesis of this study that the goal of the naval METOC enterprise is the reduction of uncertainty due to environmental factors in mission planning and operations. Thus, the optimum investment strategy is that which provides the largest reduction in the cost of uncertainty for the smallest investment cost. An important consequence of this hypothesis is the need for the naval METOC community to embrace the concept of uncertainty and uncertainty reduction as fundamental to METOC products.

The naval METOC enterprise is a complex system of platforms, personnel, and computer systems designed to support operations carried out by the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps by producing high-quality tailored environmental information products. The intended consumers of this information include decisionmakers facing a variety of complex choices, some of which may be significantly affected by environmental processes operating at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. There is an apparent lack of a clear performance metric, including a robust understanding of how platforms and personnel are affected by environmental processes. Valid and quantifiable feedback from warfighters and other operators, while difficult to obtain, is needed if objective criteria for data acquisition are to be established. Limited funding, limited time, and the rapidly evolving nature of naval and expeditionary warfare make sound decisions regarding data acquisition and dissemination a high priority in the naval METOC community. Establishing the value (dollar amount) of environmental information for military decisionmaking may seem an impossible task given the complexities of military operations and the uncertainties of enemy intent. The value of such an exercise would be substantial, just as understanding the economic costs of natural disasters helps define debates over budget priorities for emergency services. The first step in understanding the value of environmental information lies in understanding its present use in various naval operations.

Front Matter (R1-R14)

Executive Summary (1-11)

1. Introduction and Overview (12-33)

2. The Value of Environmental Information (34-52)

3. Nature of the Problem: Sources and Limitations of Metoc Knowledge (53-69)

4. Improving Environmental Information by Reducing Uncertainty (70-109)

5. Information Flow: Leveraging Network-Centric Concepts (110-123)

6. Moving Ahead (124-137)

References (138-140)

Appendix A: Committee and Staff Biographies (141-146)

Appendix B: The Role of Environmental Information in Naval Warfare (147-171)

Appendix C: Environmental Science and Technology Programs (172-194)

Appendix D: Acronyms (195-200)

Appendix E: Information-Gathering Activities of the Committee on Environmental Information for Naval Use (201-203)