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PAPERBACK + PDF your price: $131.50 add to cart PAPERBACK list:$112.25 Web:$101.03 add to cart PDF BOOK your price: $86.00 add to cart PDF CHAPTERS your price: $7.40 select Rights & Permissions Free Resources PDF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Display this book on your site! Related Titles Gulf War and Health: Volume 1. Depleted Uranium, Pyridostigmine Bromide, Sarin, and Vaccines Gulf War and Health: Volume 3. Fuels, Combustion Products, and Propellants Other Related Titles Gulf War and Health: Volume 2. Insecticides and Solvents (2003) Board on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention (HPDP) Institute of Medicine (IOM) Web Search Builder Use this book's key terms to search within this book, across our collection, or across the Web. Skim This Chapter Skim this chapter and use this chapter's key terms to search within this book. Reference Finder Paste in your own text to find books that relate to your topic. Page 570   E-mail  Facebook  Digg  Stumble  Twitter More The following HTML text is provided to enhance online readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML. Please use the page image as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy. E RELATIVE RISKS FOR LUNG CANCER Table E.1 shows detailed results1 under certain assumptions of the prevalence of smoking in the general population and in the occupational cohort. Some of the scenarios are rather implausible, for example, assuming that 70% of the population is heavy smokers. In cases where the prevalence of smoking in the general population exceeds that of the cohort, the expected relative risks are less than unity, meaning that an observed excess relative risk in the cohort would be underestimated because of confounding by smoking. Expected relative risks greater than unity, as would occur when there are more and heavier smokers in the occupational cohort, are interpreted as meaning that some of an observed effect could be explained by smoking. In the instance where all cohort members smoke heavily, the maximum relative risk that could be observed is 3.1. In general, the table shows that one requires extreme differential smoking patterns to explain observed relative risks above 1.5. The expected relative risks for lung cancer due solely to smoking presented below. Table E.1 was calculated assuming a relative risk for “moderate” smoking of 10 and for “heavy” smoking of 20. TABLE E.1 Relative Risks for Lung Cancer General Population 40% Moderate and 10% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 1.0 50 10 1.1 60 10 1.3 70 10 1.4 30 20 1.2 40 20 1.3 50 20 1.4 60 20 1.6 20 30 1.3 30 30 1.4 40 30 1.6 50 30 1.7 10 40 1.5 10 50 1.8 10 60 2.0 10 70 2.3 General Population 50% Moderate and 10% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.9 50 10 1.0 60 10 1.1 70 10 1.2 30 20 1.0 40 20 1.1 50 20 1.3 60 20 1.4 20 30 1.1 30 30 1.3 40 30 1.4 50 30 1.5 10 40 1.3 10 50 1.5 10 60 1.8 10 70 2.1 General Population 60% Moderate and 10% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.8 50 10 0.9 60 10 1.0 70 10 1.1 30 20 0.9 40 20 1.0 50 20 1.1 60 20 1.2 20 30 1.0 30 30 1.1 40 30 1.2 50 30 1.3 10 40 1.1 10 50 1.4 10 60 1.6 10 70 1.8 1   Provided by Mark Goldberg, Ph.D. Page 570 Front Matter (R1-R16) Executive Summary (1-9) 1. Introduction (10-16) 2. Identifying and Evaluating the Literature (17-38) 3. Insecticide Toxicology (39-81) 4. Solvent Toxicology (82-97) 5. Cancer and Exposure to Insecticides (98-155) 6. Cancer and Exposure to Solvents (156-349) 7. Neurologic Effects (350-449) 8. Reproductive and Developmental Effects (450-483) 9. Additional Health Effects (484-530) Appendix A: Overview of Illnesses in Gulf War Veterens (531-561) Appendix B: Conclusions and Recommendations: Gulf War and Health, Volume 1 (562-564) Appendix C: Identifying the Literature (565-568) Appendix D: Insecticides and Solvents Sent to the Gulf War (569-569) Appendix E: Relative Risks for Lung Cancer (570-573) Appendix F: Neurologic Examination (574-579) Appendix G: Consensus Conclusions Arranged by Health Outcome (580-583) Index (584-600)

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OCR for page 570
Gulf War and Health: Insecticides and Solvents, Volume 2 E RELATIVE RISKS FOR LUNG CANCER Table E.1 shows detailed results1 under certain assumptions of the prevalence of smoking in the general population and in the occupational cohort. Some of the scenarios are rather implausible, for example, assuming that 70% of the population is heavy smokers. In cases where the prevalence of smoking in the general population exceeds that of the cohort, the expected relative risks are less than unity, meaning that an observed excess relative risk in the cohort would be underestimated because of confounding by smoking. Expected relative risks greater than unity, as would occur when there are more and heavier smokers in the occupational cohort, are interpreted as meaning that some of an observed effect could be explained by smoking. In the instance where all cohort members smoke heavily, the maximum relative risk that could be observed is 3.1. In general, the table shows that one requires extreme differential smoking patterns to explain observed relative risks above 1.5. The expected relative risks for lung cancer due solely to smoking presented below. Table E.1 was calculated assuming a relative risk for “moderate” smoking of 10 and for “heavy” smoking of 20. TABLE E.1 Relative Risks for Lung Cancer General Population 40% Moderate and 10% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 1.0 50 10 1.1 60 10 1.3 70 10 1.4 30 20 1.2 40 20 1.3 50 20 1.4 60 20 1.6 20 30 1.3 30 30 1.4 40 30 1.6 50 30 1.7 10 40 1.5 10 50 1.8 10 60 2.0 10 70 2.3 General Population 50% Moderate and 10% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.9 50 10 1.0 60 10 1.1 70 10 1.2 30 20 1.0 40 20 1.1 50 20 1.3 60 20 1.4 20 30 1.1 30 30 1.3 40 30 1.4 50 30 1.5 10 40 1.3 10 50 1.5 10 60 1.8 10 70 2.1 General Population 60% Moderate and 10% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.8 50 10 0.9 60 10 1.0 70 10 1.1 30 20 0.9 40 20 1.0 50 20 1.1 60 20 1.2 20 30 1.0 30 30 1.1 40 30 1.2 50 30 1.3 10 40 1.1 10 50 1.4 10 60 1.6 10 70 1.8 1   Provided by Mark Goldberg, Ph.D.

OCR for page 571
Gulf War and Health: Insecticides and Solvents, Volume 2 General Population 70% Moderate and 10% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.7 50 10 0.8 60 10 0.9 70 10 1.0 30 20 0.8 40 20 0.9 50 20 1.0 60 20 1.1 20 30 0.9 30 30 1.0 40 30 1.1 50 30 1.2 10 40 1.0 10 50 1.2 10 60 1.4 10 70 1.7 General Population 30% Moderate and 20% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.9 50 10 1.0 60 10 1.1 70 10 1.2 30 20 1.0 40 20 1.1 50 20 1.2 60 20 1.4 20 30 1.1 30 30 1.3 40 30 1.4 50 30 1.5 10 40 1.3 10 50 1.5 10 60 1.8 10 70 2.0 General Population 40% Moderate and 20% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.8 50 10 0.9 60 10 1.0 70 10 1.1 30 20 0.9 40 20 1.0 50 20 1.1 60 20 1.2 20 30 1.0 30 30 1.1 40 30 1.2 50 30 1.3 10 40 1.1 10 50 1.4 10 60 1.6 10 70 1.8 General Population 50% Moderate and 20% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.7 50 10 0.8 60 10 0.9 70 10 1.0 30 20 0.8 40 20 0.9 50 20 1.0 60 20 1.1 20 30 0.9 30 30 1.0 40 30 1.1 50 30 1.2 10 40 1.0 10 50 1.2 10 60 1.4 10 70 1.6 General Population 60% Moderate and 20% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.6 50 10 0.7 60 10 0.8 70 10 0.9 30 20 0.7 40 20 0.8 50 20 0.9 60 20 1.0 20 30 0.8 30 30 0.9 40 30 1.0 50 30 1.1 10 40 0.9 10 50 1.1 10 60 1.3 10 70 1.5 General Population 20% Moderate and 30% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.8 50 10 0.9 60 10 1.0 70 10 1.1 30 20 0.9 40 20 1.0 50 20 1.1 60 20 1.2 20 30 1.0 30 30 1.1 40 30 1.2 50 30 1.3 10 40 1.1 10 50 1.3 10 60 1.6 10 70 1.8

OCR for page 572
Gulf War and Health: Insecticides and Solvents, Volume 2 General Population 30% Moderate and 30% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.7 50 10 0.8 60 10 0.9 70 10 1.0 30 20 0.8 40 20 0.9 50 20 1.0 60 20 1.1 20 30 0.9 30 30 1.0 40 30 1.1 50 30 1.2 10 40 1.0 10 50 1.2 10 60 1.4 10 70 1.6 General Population 40% Moderate and 30% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.6 50 10 0.7 60 10 0.8 70 10 0.9 30 20 0.7 40 20 0.8 50 20 0.9 60 20 1.0 20 30 0.8 30 30 0.9 40 30 1.0 50 30 1.1 10 40 0.9 10 50 1.1 10 60 1.3 10 70 1.5 General Population 50% Moderate and 30% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.6 50 10 0.7 60 10 0.7 70 10 0.8 30 20 0.7 40 20 0.8 50 20 0.8 60 20 0.9 20 30 0.8 30 30 0.8 40 30 0.9 50 30 1.0 10 40 0.8 10 50 1.0 10 60 1.2 10 70 1.4 General Population 10% Moderate and 40% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20 Expected RR 40 10 0.7 50 10 0.8 60 10 0.9 70 10 1.0 30 20 0.8 40 20 0.9 50 20 1.0 60 20 1.1 20 30 0.9 30 30 1.0 40 30 1.1 50 30 1.2 10 40 1.0 10 50 1.2 10 60 1.4 10 70 1.6 General Population 10% Moderate and 50% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.6 50 10 0.6 60 10 0.7 70 10 0.8 30 20 0.7 40 20 0.7 50 20 0.8 60 20 0.9 20 30 0.7 30 30 0.8 40 30 0.9 50 30 1.0 10 40 0.8 10 50 1.0 10 60 1.2 10 70 1.3 General Population 10% Moderate and 60% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.5 50 10 0.6 60 10 0.6 70 10 0.7 30 20 0.6 40 20 0.6 50 20 0.7 60 20 0.8 20 30 0.6 30 30 0.7 40 30 0.8 50 30 0.8 10 40 0.7 10 50 0.9 10 60 1.0 10 70 1.1

OCR for page 573
Gulf War and Health: Insecticides and Solvents, Volume 2 General Population 10% Moderate and 70% Heavy Moderate (RR=10) Heavy (RR=20) Expected RR 40 10 0.4 50 10 0.5 60 10 0.5 70 10 0.6 30 20 0.5 40 20 0.6 50 20 0.6 60 20 0.7 20 30 0.6 30 30 0.6 40 30 0.7 50 30 0.7 10 40 0.6 10 50 0.8 10 60 0.9 10 70 1.0

Representative terms from entire chapter:

heavy moderate