the creation of archives of WSR-88D data, can provide a foundation for an advanced short-term forecasting system. There is cause for considerable optimism in improving skill at forecasting convection, especially as we leave behind the era of having to parameterize convection and switch to models that capture much of the nonhydrostatic processes that characterize convective events.

The workshop concluded with a discussion of critical tasks and future directions to address the issue of improving operational convective weather forecasting. These include:

  • Defining probabilistic forecasting and determining how it could best be applied in air traffic management.

  • Identifying how the FAA could best utilize available weather forecast products by incorporating them into its current operational activities.

  • Establishing predictability confidence limits for all convective regimes, defining key convective regimes and model capabilities in those areas, and characterizing the impact of convective forecasts on air traffic control decision making.

  • Identifying and evaluating the various means and mechanisms for generating probabilistic forecasts.

  • Clarifying concepts of accuracy, verification, and reliability of forecasts.

  • Describing the attributes of convection most relevant to the FAA operationally.

  • Identifying the best approaches for conveying convective forecasts and products to air traffic controllers and pilots.

  • Outlining needed research to improve the reliability and utility of 2 to 6 hour convective forecasts, especially probabilistic forecasts.



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