Appendix D
Workshop Agenda

Weather Forecasting Accuracy for Federal Aviation Administration Traffic Flow Management Workshop

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

The National Academies

Washington, D.C.

June 4–5, 2002

Tuesday, June 4, 2002

CLOSED SESSION

8:00 A.M.

Composition and balance discussion

OPEN SESSION

9:00 A.M.

Welcome and introductions

Steve Clifford, committee chair

Statement of Problem

9:15 A.M.

FAA Overview of Delay Problem from NAS Perspective

Peter Challan, FAA, ATF-2 Deputy Associate Administrator for Air Traffic Services



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 48
Appendix D Workshop Agenda Weather Forecasting Accuracy for Federal Aviation Administration Traffic Flow Management Workshop Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate The National Academies Washington, D.C. June 4–5, 2002 Tuesday, June 4, 2002 CLOSED SESSION 8:00 A.M. Composition and balance discussion OPEN SESSION 9:00 A.M. Welcome and introductions Steve Clifford, committee chair Statement of Problem 9:15 A.M. FAA Overview of Delay Problem from NAS Perspective Peter Challan, FAA, ATF-2 Deputy Associate Administrator for Air Traffic Services

OCR for page 48
9:35 A.M. Overview of Collaborative Decision-Making Process, Planning Process, Teams, Challenges When Weather Goes Bad Jack Kies, FAA, Manager for Air Traffic Tactical Operations, ATT-1 9:55 A.M. Air Carrier Perspective of Delay Problem Russ Gold, ATA, Director, Airline Operations/Meteorology 10:15 A.M. Overview of Delays Due to Weather, History of Convective Forecast, Provision of Forecast for Traffic Planning Jim Washington, FAA, Director for Air Traffic System Requirements Service, ARS-1 10:35 A.M. Break Discussion of Collaborative Convective Forecast Product 10:50 A.M. Overview of CCFP, Forecast Content, Production, Use of CCFP, Problems and Limitations Bill Cranor, US Airways, Manager for ATC and Airfield Operations 11:10 A.M. Overview of CCFP Verification, CCFP Calibration Mark Phaneuf, AvMet Applications, Vice President Barbara Brown, NCAR, Project Scientist Current State of Development 11:30 A.M. Overview of Operational Forecasting Constraints in this Problem Fred Foss, Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Chief for Domestic Operations Branch 11:45 A.M. Overview of Numerical Modeling Applied to this Problem Jack Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Director, Office of Science and Technology 12:00 NOON Working lunch in meeting room:

OCR for page 48
Challenges-Overview of the Accuracy Requirements Richard Heuwinkel, FAA, Manager for Aerospace Weather Policy, ARS-100 1:00 P.M. Discussion Topic 1 What approaches/strategies will be most effective to get an accurate 3- to 6-hour forecast of areas of convection for aviation use in the next 5 to 10 years? (Accurate means a desired false alarm rate (FAR) of =0.20, a probability of detection (POD) of =0.80, a minimal FAR of =0.30, and a POD of =0.60) Discussion Leaders: Rit Carbone, Michael Fritsch, and Cindy Mueller 3:00 P.M. Break 3:30 P.M. Discussion Topic 2 What specific scientific enabling capabilities are needed to realize these gains and when will they be available? For example, what improvements, in observations, algorithms, analyses, and numerical modeling are likely to yield the best results? What are the major gaps in the current R&D activities that need to be addressed? Discussion Leaders: Andrew Crook, Kelvin Droegemeier, and Alexander MacDonald 5:00 P.M. Summary of topics 5:30 P.M. Adjourn

OCR for page 48
Wednesday, June 5, 2002 CLOSED SESSION 8:00 A.M. Continental breakfast OPEN SESSION 9:00 A.M. Discussion Topic 3 What is the most appropriate way to present the forecast in an operational setting? • Consider the two main uses are flight planning and traffic flow management • Consider how the forecast will be developed and presented (i.e., purely probabilistic, deterministic) Discussion Leaders: John McCarthy and Jim Evans 11:00 A.M. Break 11:15 A.M. Discussion Topic 4 How will we know when we’re done? What verification scheme makes the most sense from an aviation perspective? Discussion Leaders: Marilyn Wolfson and Michael Prather 12:30 P.M. Lunch 1:30 P.M. Draft report of the workshop 4:00 P.M. Adjourn