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Appendix D
Workshop Agenda
Weather Forecasting Accuracy for Federal Aviation Administration Traffic Flow Management Workshop
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
The National Academies
Washington, D.C.
June 4–5, 2002
Tuesday, June 4, 2002
CLOSED SESSION
8:00 A.M.
Composition and balance discussion
OPEN SESSION
9:00 A.M.
Welcome and introductions
Steve Clifford, committee chair
Statement of Problem
9:15 A.M.
FAA Overview of Delay Problem from NAS Perspective
Peter Challan, FAA, ATF-2 Deputy Associate Administrator for Air Traffic Services
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Appendix D
Workshop Agenda
Weather Forecasting Accuracy for Federal Aviation Administration Traffic Flow Management Workshop
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
The National Academies
Washington, D.C.
June 4–5, 2002
Tuesday, June 4, 2002
CLOSED SESSION
8:00 A.M.
Composition and balance discussion
OPEN SESSION
9:00 A.M.
Welcome and introductions
Steve Clifford, committee chair
Statement of Problem
9:15 A.M.
FAA Overview of Delay Problem from NAS Perspective
Peter Challan, FAA, ATF-2 Deputy Associate Administrator for Air Traffic Services
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9:35 A.M.
Overview of Collaborative Decision-Making Process, Planning Process, Teams, Challenges When Weather Goes Bad
Jack Kies, FAA, Manager for Air Traffic Tactical Operations, ATT-1
9:55 A.M.
Air Carrier Perspective of Delay Problem
Russ Gold, ATA, Director, Airline Operations/Meteorology
10:15 A.M.
Overview of Delays Due to Weather, History of Convective Forecast, Provision of Forecast for Traffic Planning
Jim Washington, FAA, Director for Air Traffic System Requirements Service, ARS-1
10:35 A.M.
Break
Discussion of Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
10:50 A.M.
Overview of CCFP, Forecast Content, Production, Use of CCFP, Problems and Limitations
Bill Cranor, US Airways, Manager for ATC and Airfield Operations
11:10 A.M.
Overview of CCFP Verification, CCFP Calibration
Mark Phaneuf, AvMet Applications, Vice President
Barbara Brown, NCAR, Project Scientist
Current State of Development
11:30 A.M.
Overview of Operational Forecasting Constraints in this Problem
Fred Foss, Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Chief for Domestic Operations Branch
11:45 A.M.
Overview of Numerical Modeling Applied to this Problem
Jack Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Director, Office of Science and Technology
12:00 NOON
Working lunch in meeting room:
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Challenges-Overview of the Accuracy Requirements
Richard Heuwinkel, FAA, Manager for Aerospace Weather Policy, ARS-100
1:00 P.M.
Discussion Topic 1
What approaches/strategies will be most effective to get an accurate 3- to 6-hour forecast of areas of convection for aviation use in the next 5 to 10 years? (Accurate means a desired false alarm rate (FAR) of =0.20, a probability of detection (POD) of =0.80, a minimal FAR of =0.30, and a POD of =0.60)
Discussion Leaders: Rit Carbone, Michael Fritsch, and Cindy Mueller
3:00 P.M.
Break
3:30 P.M.
Discussion Topic 2
What specific scientific enabling capabilities are needed to realize these gains and when will they be available? For example, what improvements, in observations, algorithms, analyses, and numerical modeling are likely to yield the best results? What are the major gaps in the current R&D activities that need to be addressed?
Discussion Leaders: Andrew Crook, Kelvin Droegemeier, and Alexander MacDonald
5:00 P.M.
Summary of topics
5:30 P.M.
Adjourn
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Wednesday, June 5, 2002
CLOSED SESSION
8:00 A.M.
Continental breakfast
OPEN SESSION
9:00 A.M.
Discussion Topic 3
What is the most appropriate way to present the forecast in an operational setting?
• Consider the two main uses are flight planning and traffic flow management
• Consider how the forecast will be developed and presented (i.e., purely probabilistic, deterministic)
Discussion Leaders: John McCarthy and Jim Evans
11:00 A.M.
Break
11:15 A.M.
Discussion Topic 4
How will we know when we’re done? What verification scheme makes the most sense from an aviation perspective?
Discussion Leaders: Marilyn Wolfson and Michael Prather
12:30 P.M.
Lunch
1:30 P.M.
Draft report of the workshop
4:00 P.M.
Adjourn
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