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Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
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Appendix D
Workshop Agenda

Weather Forecasting Accuracy for Federal Aviation Administration Traffic Flow Management Workshop

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

The National Academies

Washington, D.C.

June 4–5, 2002

Tuesday, June 4, 2002

CLOSED SESSION

8:00 A.M.

Composition and balance discussion

OPEN SESSION

9:00 A.M.

Welcome and introductions

Steve Clifford, committee chair

Statement of Problem

9:15 A.M.

FAA Overview of Delay Problem from NAS Perspective

Peter Challan, FAA, ATF-2 Deputy Associate Administrator for Air Traffic Services

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
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9:35 A.M.

Overview of Collaborative Decision-Making Process, Planning Process, Teams, Challenges When Weather Goes Bad

Jack Kies, FAA, Manager for Air Traffic Tactical Operations, ATT-1

9:55 A.M.

Air Carrier Perspective of Delay Problem

Russ Gold, ATA, Director, Airline Operations/Meteorology

10:15 A.M.

Overview of Delays Due to Weather, History of Convective Forecast, Provision of Forecast for Traffic Planning

Jim Washington, FAA, Director for Air Traffic System Requirements Service, ARS-1

10:35 A.M.

Break

Discussion of Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

10:50 A.M.

Overview of CCFP, Forecast Content, Production, Use of CCFP, Problems and Limitations

Bill Cranor, US Airways, Manager for ATC and Airfield Operations

11:10 A.M.

Overview of CCFP Verification, CCFP Calibration

Mark Phaneuf, AvMet Applications, Vice President

Barbara Brown, NCAR, Project Scientist

Current State of Development

11:30 A.M.

Overview of Operational Forecasting Constraints in this Problem

Fred Foss, Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Chief for Domestic Operations Branch

11:45 A.M.

Overview of Numerical Modeling Applied to this Problem

Jack Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Director, Office of Science and Technology

12:00 NOON

Working lunch in meeting room:

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
×

Challenges-Overview of the Accuracy Requirements

Richard Heuwinkel, FAA, Manager for Aerospace Weather Policy, ARS-100

1:00 P.M.

Discussion Topic 1

What approaches/strategies will be most effective to get an accurate 3- to 6-hour forecast of areas of convection for aviation use in the next 5 to 10 years? (Accurate means a desired false alarm rate (FAR) of =0.20, a probability of detection (POD) of =0.80, a minimal FAR of =0.30, and a POD of =0.60)

Discussion Leaders: Rit Carbone, Michael Fritsch, and Cindy Mueller

3:00 P.M.

Break

3:30 P.M.

Discussion Topic 2

What specific scientific enabling capabilities are needed to realize these gains and when will they be available? For example, what improvements, in observations, algorithms, analyses, and numerical modeling are likely to yield the best results? What are the major gaps in the current R&D activities that need to be addressed?

Discussion Leaders: Andrew Crook, Kelvin Droegemeier, and Alexander MacDonald

5:00 P.M.

Summary of topics

5:30 P.M.

Adjourn

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
×

Wednesday, June 5, 2002

CLOSED SESSION

8:00 A.M.

Continental breakfast

OPEN SESSION

9:00 A.M.

Discussion Topic 3

What is the most appropriate way to present the forecast in an operational setting?

• Consider the two main uses are flight planning and traffic flow management

• Consider how the forecast will be developed and presented (i.e., purely probabilistic, deterministic)

Discussion Leaders: John McCarthy and Jim Evans

11:00 A.M.

Break

11:15 A.M.

Discussion Topic 4

How will we know when we’re done? What verification scheme makes the most sense from an aviation perspective?

Discussion Leaders: Marilyn Wolfson and Michael Prather

12:30 P.M.

Lunch

1:30 P.M.

Draft report of the workshop

4:00 P.M.

Adjourn

Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
×
Page 48
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
×
Page 49
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
×
Page 50
Suggested Citation:"Appendix D: Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2003. Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10637.
×
Page 51
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Accurate prediction of convective storms 2- to 6-hours in advance is critical to selecting air traffic routes with minimal weather delays or diversions. This report summarizes the discussions of a workshop to explore present convective weather forecasting skill, strategies for improving that skill, ways to verify forecasts are accurate, and how to make forecasts useful to air traffic controllers, airline dispatchers, and pilots.

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