ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE EVERGLADES RESTORATION PLAN

Committee on Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem

Water Science and Technology Board

Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES


THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu



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ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE EVERGLADES RESTORATION PLAN Committee on Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem Water Science and Technology Board Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Division on Earth and Life Studies NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Supported by the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force, U.S. Department of the Interior, under assistance of Cooperative Agreement No. 5280-9-9029 and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U. S. Government. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08892-5 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Cover: Great White Heron in Everglades National Park. Photograph by Patricia Jones Kershaw. Used with permission. Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON RESTORATION OF THE GREATER EVERGLADES ECOSYSTEM (CROGEE)1 JEAN M. BAHR, Chair, University of Wisconsin, Madison SCOTT W. NIXON, Vice-Chair, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett JOHN S. ADAMS2, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis BARBARA L. BEDFORD, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York LINDA K. BLUM3, University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK L. BREZONIK, University of Minnesota, St. Paul FRANK W. DAVIS3, University of California, Santa Barbara WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia WAYNE C. HUBER, Oregon State University, Corvallis STEPHEN R. HUMPHREY, University of Florida, Gainesville DANIEL P. LOUCKS3, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York KENNETH W. POTTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison KENNETH H. RECKHOW, Duke University LARRY ROBINSON3, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University, Tallahassee REBECCA R. SHARITZ2, Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Aiken, South Carolina, and University of Georgia, Athens HENRY J. VAUX, JR. University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Oakland JOHN VECCHIOLI, U.S. Geological Survey (ret.), Odessa, Florida JEFFREY R. WALTERS3, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg NRC Staff STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director, Water Science and Technology Board DAVID J. POLICANSKY3, Associate Director, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology WILLIAM S. LOGAN, Senior Staff Officer, Water Science and Technology Board PATRICIA JONES KERSHAW, Staff Associate, Water Science and Technology Board ANITA HALL, Senior Project Assistant, Water Science and Technology Board 1   The activities of the Committee on Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem (CROGEE) are overseen and supported by the NRC’s Water Science and Technology Board (lead) and Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology (see Appendix B). 2   Member of the committee through December 31, 2002. 3   A subgroup consisting of CROGEE members Linda Blum (subgroup chair), Frank Davis, Pete Loucks, Larry Robinson, and Jeffrey Walters, with support from NRC senior staff officer David Policansky, took the lead in drafting this report.

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Preface This report is a product of the Committee on Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem (CROGEE), which provides consensus advice to the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force (“Task Force”). The Task Force was established in 1993 and was codified in the 1996 Water Resources Development Act (WRDA); its responsibilities include the development of a comprehensive plan for restoring, preserving and protecting the south Florida ecosystem, and the coordination of related research. The CROGEE works under the auspices of the Water Science and Technology Board and the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology of the National Research Council. The CROGEE’s mandate includes providing the Task Force with scientific overview and technical assessment of the restoration activities and plans, while also providing focused advice on technical topics of importance to the restoration efforts. One such topic is the methods by which ecological performance measures and system level conditions are identified for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) Monitoring and Assessment Plan (MAP) and the way that these measures and conditions will be used to assess the restoration process. To obtain a better understanding of the process for selecting the CERP MAP performance measures, the CROGEE held a one-day “Adaptive Assessment and Monitoring” workshop on November 28, 2001 in Ft. Myers, Florida (see Appendix A for agenda and list of participants). The CROGEE used the March 29, 2001 Monitoring and Assessment Plan developed by the Adaptive Assessment Team (AAT) of the Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) team as a basis for the workshop. A panel of experts on the plan was assembled to answer questions from the committee. The topics addressed at the workshop included proposed ecological performance measures, measurement of stressors and impact on restoration goals, performance measure prioritization strategies, design of the monitoring program, relationship between construction projects and monitoring, impact of ecological response on construction projects, use of monitoring information to alter management, and reality of applying adaptive assessment. Subsequent to the workshop, the CROGEE deliberated the issues on numerous occasions. I thank the CROGEE members for their work on this report, especially a subgroup led by Linda Blum and including Frank Davis, Pete Loucks, Larry Robinson, and Jeff Walters. With assistance from NRC staff officers David Policansky, William Logan, and Stephen Parker, they took the lead in drafting the report.

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The CROGEE is grateful for the assistance of many individuals during the data collection phase of this report. These include Laura Brandt (USFWS),1 Co-chair Adaptive Assessment Team; Col. Terrence “Rock” Salt, Executive Director of the Task Force; members of the Program Management Committee and the many scientists at the workshop who freely shared their insights. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Peter Frederick, University of Florida John Hobbie, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole Michael Newman, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Gordon Orians, University of Washington (Emeritus) Nancy Rabalais, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium Steven Sanderson, Wildlife Conservation Society Daniel Simberloff, University of Tennessee Carol Wicks, University of Missouri-Columbia Joy Zedler, University of Wisconsin Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. John Pastor, University of Minnesota. Appointed by the National Research Council, Dr. Pastor was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Jean M. Bahr, Chair Committee on Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem 1   Although Laura Brandt was an important contributor, the science panel for the November 2001 CROGEE workshop was chaired by John Ogden (SFWMD) and an important contributor was Steve Davis (SFWMD).

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Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   13     A Brief History of the Everglades,   13     The Restoration Plan,   16     Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan Goals,   18 2   THE RESTORATION PLAN’S ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY   19     Adaptive Assessment,   19     Types of Adaptive Management,   20     Restoration Goals and Targets,   21     Restoring Species and Habitats or the Ecosystem?,   23     Reconciling Targets with External Forces of Change,   24     Achieving Compatibility of the Built and Natural Systems,   25     Defining “Ecological Health” for the Everglades Ecosystem,   26     Restoration Reference State,   26     Conceptualizing the Human Dynamics of the Everglades Restoration,   28     Learning Through Integrated Monitoring, Modeling, and Experimental Research,   29     Monitoring in Support of Adaptive Management,   31     Ecological Performance Measures,   34     Experimental Research and Modeling,   38     Model Refinement and Sensitivity Analyses,   39     Scientific Feedback to Guide and Refine Implementation of the Restoration Plan,   40 3   ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS OF MONITORING   43     The Report Card,   43     Regulatory Compliance Monitoring,   45 4   DATA MANAGEMENT AND PRODUCTS   47     Quality Assurance/Quality Control,   47     Data and Information Management,   48     Synthesis of Data,   49

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5   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   51     REFERENCES   55 APPENDIX A –   ADAPTIVE ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING WORKSHOP AGENDA   61 APPENDIX B –   MEMBERS OF THE WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD AND BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY   65 APPENDIX C –   BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF THE COMMITTEE ON RESTORATION OF THE GREATER EVERGLADES ECOSYSTEMS   67 APPENDIX D –   ACRONYM LIST   73 APPENDIX E –   MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PLAN   75