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~ A. Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World Panel on Urban Population Dynamics Mark R. Montgomery, Richard Stren, Barney Cohen, and Holly E. Reecl, Eclitors Committee on Population Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Eclucation NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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TO NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by a cooperative agreement between the National Academy of Sciences and the United States Agency for International Development (CCP-3078-A- 00-5024), and from grants from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation (under grants nos. 40000647, 20200661, and 299990629), the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (under grants nos. 99-3533 and 2002-7757), and the Canadian International Development Agency (under grant no. 7008531~. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda- tions expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08862-3 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-51148-8 (PDF) Library of Congress Control Number: 2003106202 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested Citation: National Research Council. (20034. Cities Transformed: Demo- graphic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, M.R. Montgomery, R. Stren, B. Cohen, and H.E. Reed, eds., Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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NA - _ ~ A A _ A ~ ~ ~ _ - A tJ ~ A - ^LUA ~ -M ~;::, _ _ . . . . . ~ . . . . ... A~v/sers to the Nat/on on Juenre; t~eer~ng, and Med/one The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating soci- ety of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedi- cated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the char- ter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the Na- tional Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the In- stitute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Pravin Visaria (1937 2001) This volume is dedicated to our colleague Pravin Visaria, who passed away during the completion of this project. Pravin was director of the Institute of Economic Growth in Delhi and worked closely with the Indian government's Planning Commission, Department of Statis- tics, Office of the Registrar General, and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. A distinguished scholar who held positions with the University of Bombay, the World Bank, and the Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Pravin was al- ways involved in important policy-relevant economic and demographic research. He published numerous articles and books on mortality, fertility, migration, ur- banization, labor force and employment, population projections, censuses and sur- veys, poverty, and population policy, especially in the Indian context. Pravin also held leadership positions with many important academic and policy organizations, including the Indian Association for the Study of Population, the National Sample Survey Organization of India, and the Gujarat Economic Association. Pravin was an especially constructive and committed member of the Panel on Urban Population Dynamics. He not only provided much information about the rapid urbanization of one of the world's largest countries India but he also pushed the panel to evaluate its own thinking, insisting that we always consider our arguments from the viewpoint of policy makers in poor countries, who need to deal with very large rural, as well as urban populations. Pravin was a member of so many research networks and institutions over the years, and friends around the world mourned his sad and early death. We remember him as our friend who continually reminded us of the purpose of our research: to guide us towards better policy decisions.

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PANEL ON URBAN POPULATION DYNAMICS MARK R. MONTGOMERY (Co-Chair), Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York, NY, and Department of Economics, State University of New York at Stony Brook RICHARD STREN (Co-Chair), Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, Canada CHARLES M. BECKER, Department of Economics, University of Colorado, Denver, and Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder ELLEN M. BRENNAN-GALVIN, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University MARTIN BROCKERHOFF,~ Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York, NY MICHAEL A. COHEN, International Affairs Program, The New School for Social Research, New York, NY ALAIN DUBRESSON, Laboratoire Geographic des Tropiques, Universite de Paris X-Nanterre, Paris, France GUSTAVO GARZA, Center for Demographic and Urban Development Studies, E1 Colegio de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico TRUDY HARPHAM, Division of Urban and Environmental Studies, South Bank University, London, United Kingdom TERRENCE G. MCGEE, Institute of Asian Research, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada CAROLINE MOSER, Overseas Development Institute, London, United Kingdom SASKIA SASSEN, Department of Sociology, University of Chicago DAVID E. SATTERTHWAITE, Human Settlements Programme, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, United Kingdom PRAVIN VISARIA,2 Institute for Economic Growth, New Delhi, India MICHAEL WHITE, Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI YUE-MAN YEUNG, Shaw College, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong National Research Council Staff BARNEY COHEN, Study Director HOLLY REED, Program Officer BRIAN TOBACHNICK, Senior Project Assistant (until August 2001) ANA-MARIA IGNAT, Senior Project Assistant (since October 2001) ~ Resigned August 2000. 2Deceased February 2001. v

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CHRISTINE CHEN, Senior Project Assistant (August-October 2001) ELIZABETH WALLACE, Senior Project Assistant (until October 2000) Liaison to the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) Working Group on Urbanization ANTHONY CHAMPION, Department of Geography, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom V1

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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION 2002 JANE MENKEN (ChairJ, Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder ELLEN M. BRENNAN-GALVIN, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC JANET CURRIE, Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles JOHN N. HOBCRAFT, Population Investigation Committee, London School of Economics, United Kingdom CHARLES B. KEELY, Institute for the Study of International Migration, Georgetown University, Washington, DC DAVID I. KERTZER, Department of Anthropology, Brown University, Providence, RI DAVID A. LAM, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CYNTHIA B. LLOYD, Population Council, New York, NY W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population and Family Health Sciences, The Johns Hopkins University ALBERTO PALLONI, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison JAMES W. VAUPEL, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany KENNETH W. WACHTER, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley LINDA J. WAITE, Population Research Center, University of Chicago BARNEY COHEN, Director vat

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Acknowledgments As co-chairs of the Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, we would like to say on behalf of the panel that we have been privileged and challenged by our task of examining the rapid urbanization of the developing world and its causes and consequences. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World is the product of a three-and-a-half-year effort in which we both reviewed the existing literature and conducted new analyses in the hope of encouraging demographers (and, by extension, other urban scholars) to take a fresh look at this topic. If others are moved to follow up, or to criticize some of the work we have presented in this volume, our time will not have been wasted. This report would not have been possible without the help of numerous people and organizations. First, we wish to thank the reports' sponsors: the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation (whose program officer, Carolyn Makinson, was a fount of enthusiasm and intellectual energy), the Canadian International Development Agency, the United States Agency for International Development, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Their generous support for this project allowed us to draw creatively on a variety of resources that ultimately made for a stronger report. This report is the collective product of panel members and staff. Its content re- flects the deliberations of the full panel. The panel reviewed all contributions, and these have been revised and edited in light of panel reactions and the comments of outside reviewers. The purpose of the following list, therefore, is to give credit to individuals on the panel but not to assign final responsibility for the published text. Executive Summary: This is the collective product of the deliberations of the entire panel. Chapter 1: B. Cohen and M. Montgomery Chapter 2: M. Montgomery, H. Reed, D. Satterthwaite, M. White, M. Cohen, T. McGee, and Y. Young Chapter 3: B. Cohen, M. White, M. Montgomery, T. McGee, and Y. Young Chapter 4: M. White, M. Montgomery, E. Brennan-Galvin, and P. Visaria Chapter 5: D. Satterthwaite, M. Montgomery, and H. Reed Chapter 6: M. Montgomery, H. Reed, and M. White . . . V111

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Chapter 7: T. Harpham, H. Reed, M. Montgomery, D. Satterthwaite, C. Moser, and B. Cohen Chapter 8: C. Becker, A. Dubresson, G. Garza, S. Sassen, M. Cohen. M. Montgomery, and B. Cohen Chapter 9: R. Stren, T. McGee, C. Moser, and Y. Young Chapter 10: R. Stren, B. Cohen, M. Montgomery, and H. Reed Appendix A: E. Brennan-Galvin and M. Montgomery Appendices B-F: M. Montgomery 1X It should be noted that although this list covers major sections of this volume, these sections frequently contain additional paragraphs or pages from other hands. Primary responsibility for the revision and editing of the volume was shared by Mark Montgomery, Richard Stren, Barney Cohen, and Holly Reed. Anthony Champion, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, served as official li- aison between the panel and the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population's Working Group on Urbanisation. Tony helped review the panel's re- port informally and offered important suggestions and advice. We are very grate- ful for his many contributions. Numerous other individuals also made key contributions to the panel's efforts. We are especially indebted to Martin Brockerhoff, who was with the panel in its first year. His intellectual legacy to this volume is evident in Chapter 6, which evolved along the lines that Martin had anticipated in the panel's early delibera- tions. Paul C. Hewett of The Population Council devoted countless hours to the analysis of data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Brian Pence, also of The Population Council, made a number of key contributions to analyses of mor- tality. Doreen Totaram of The Population Council skillfully prepared the massive reference list for the report. Anne Kubisch of the Aspen Institute provided many leads to the neighborhood effects literature for the United States that is discussed in Chapter 2. Alice Clague of the United Nations generously made available a Republication version of data from the 1998 Demographic Yearbook, without which we could not have derived results for city size classes. Using these data, Edward Hui (at the time an under- graduate at Brown University) took on the difficult task of matching city-specific population data to the region and city size identifiers from the Demographic and Health Surveys datasets. Roberta Scheinman linked data on HIV-AIDS from the U.S. Census Bureau's database to the United Nations city population file. Ann Ilacque, librarian at the PSTC at Brown University, and Sara Colangelo, a Brown University undergraduate, contributed to the literature reviews for Chapter 4. Sassy Molyneux (working from the Kenya Medical Research Institute, Well- come Trust Centre for Geographic Medicine Research, Kilifi, Kenya) and Emma Grant (South Bank University, London) both contributed unequalled expertise to the early versions of Chapter 7. We also thank Gordon McGranahan, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, and John Seager, Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa, for their comments on this chapter.

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Several people participated in a planning meeting in December 1998 to help formulate a plan for the panel's contributions. We have been mindful of the ad- vice we received from the following people at that meeting: Richard Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Sidney Goldstein, Brown University; Josef Gugler, University of Connecticut; and David Lam, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor. The panel was fortunate to be able to hold several workshops on topics related to our undertaking. In this way, we were able to gain insights from a number of people outside of the panel. The first workshop we held, in October 1999, which addressed the topic of "world cities in poor countries," was organized with the help of Josef Gugler, University of Connecticut. We are grateful to Dr. Gugler for identifying an array of scholars from around the world who presented case stud- ies: Janet Abu-Lughod, New School University; Maria Helena Moreira Alves, Instituto de Ciencias Aplicadas, Santiago, Chile; James H. Bater, University of Waterloo; Owen Crankshaw, University of Cape Town; Dean Forbes, University of South Australia; Susan Parnell, University of Cape Town; Sujata Patel, Uni- versity of Pune; Janet W. Salaff, University of Toronto; Alvin Y. So, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Peter M. Ward, University of Texas at Austin; Douglas Webster, National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand; Weiping Wu, Virginia Commonwealth University; and Shahid Yusuf, The World Bank. The papers from this workshop will be published in the edited volume World Cities in Poor Countries by Cambridge University Press in 2003. In February 2000, the panel was hosted by panel member Gustavo Garza and his colleagues for a meeting at E1 Colegio de Mexico, where we had the oppor- tunity to learn firsthand about urbanization processes in Mexico City. Gustavo organized a wonderful tour of the city for us, focusing on public services and hous- ing. We thank him for his assistance and are grateful to our other hosts: Andres Lira, President, E1 Colegio de Mexico; Manuel Ordorica Mellado, Director, Center for Demographic and Urban Development Studies at E1 Colegio de Mexico; and Gabriela Grajales, E1 Colegio de Mexico. We benefited from the presentations of several guest speakers for this meeting as well: David Arellano, Center for Eco- nomic Research and Education; Andres Lira, E1 Colegio de Mexico; Orlandina de Oliveira, E1 Colegio de Mexico; Rosa Maria Rubalcava, Mexican National Coun- cil on Population; Carlos Santos-Burgoa, Institute of Health, Environment, and Employment; and Willem VanVliet, University of Colorado, Boulder. The panel's work on urban health was furthered and materially assisted by the participants in a workshop on social capital and urban health held in May 2000. Trudy Harpham and Mark Montgomery from the panel co-chaired this meeting. The participants shared their knowledge of the linkages between health and social capital in both richer and poorer countries. We thank the following people for their participation: Karen Hansen, Northwestern University; Ichiro Kawachi, Harvard University; Nan Lin, Duke University; Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin at Madison; Edith Parker, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor; Joseph Potter,

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS X1 University of Texas at Austin; Vijayendra Rao, The World Bank; Carlos Rodriguez, Fundacion Para la Asesoria de Programas de Salud (FUNDAPS), Call, Colombia; Amy Schulz, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor; John Townsend, The Population Council; Thomas W. Valente, University of Southern California; and Michael Woolcock, The World Bank. Emma Grant of South Bank University, London, was instrumental in organizing this workshop and wrote the workshop summary. In September 2000, our panel was privileged to hold a meeting in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, where Seymour S. Cohen, a member of the National Academy of Sciences and father of panel member Michael A. Cohen, served as host. A workshop on urban governance held in conjunction with this meeting included the following participants: Koffi Attahi, Bureau National d'Etudes Techniques et de Developpement, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire; Jordi Borja, Urban Technology Con- sulting, Barcelona, Spain; Gu Chaolin, Nanjing University; Patricia McCarney, University of Toronto; AbdouMaliq Simone, New School University; and K. C. Sivaramakrishnan, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India. The papers writ- ten by Dr. Attahi, Dr. Borja, Dr. Gu, Dr. Sivaramakrishnan, and Dr. Edgar Pieterse, Islanda Institute, South Africa, proved very helpful to the panel in our work on governance. Many other colleagues supplied the panel with research in the form of back- ground papers. These papers, which served as valuable resources for the re- port, were written by Kathryn H. Anderson, Vanderbilt University; Cris Beau- chemin, Universite de Paris VIII; Philippe Bocquier, Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement, Nairobi, Kenya; Pablo Ciccolella, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires; Simone Buechler, Columbia University; Christopher Dunn, Uni- versity of Michigan; Valerie Durrant, National Research Council; Martha Galvez, Citizens Housing and Planning Council, New York; Emma Grant, South Bank University, London; Christopher D. Grewe, University of Colorado; Paul C. Hewett, Population Council; Asa Jonsson, International Institute for Environment and Development, London; David Lam, University of Michigan; Sang-Hyop Lee, University of Hawaii; Zai Liang, City University of New York; Andrew Mason, University of Hawaii; Iliana Mignaqui, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires; Sassy Molyneux, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Wellcome Trust Centre for Geographic Medicine Research, Kilifi, Kenya; Erbolat Musabekov, Kazakhstan National Statistical Agency; Yiu Por Chen, Columbia University; Sueli Schiffer, Universidade de Sao Paulo; Ai-Gul Seitenova, Pragma Corporation, Kazakhstan; Sunil Kumar Sinha, Institute for Economic Growth, Mumbai, India; Cecilia Tacoli, International Institute for Environment and Development, London; and Dina Urzhumova, Pragma Corporation, Kazakhstan. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap- proved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The pur- pose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that

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. . X11 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Gordon Clark, Department of Geography, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Susan Hanson, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA Kenneth H. Hill, Department of Population and Family Health Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD Akin L. Mabogunje, Development Policy Centre, Ibadan, Nigeria David R. Meyer, Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI Philip Rees, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom Barney L. Warf, Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL John Weeks, International Population Center, San Diego State University, CA Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the panel's conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Ronald Lee, Department of Demog- raphy, University of California, Berkeley, CA, and Brian J.L. Berry, School of Social Science, University of Texas, Richardson, TX. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional pro- cedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. We especially wish to recognize the efforts of several staff of The National Academies, who provided critical support for the panel and our work. Jianjun Ji and Ito Toshima, interns with the Committee on Population, lent their energy and skills to background research for the report. Michelle McGuire assisted with proofreading and editing of the final manuscript. In the Reports Office of the Di- vision of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Kirsten Sampson Snyder helped guide the manuscript through review, editing, and finally publication. And Rona Briere applied her considerable editorial talent to this daunting text; we are deeply indebted to her. Elizabeth Wallace organized our earliest panel meetings and skillfully as- sisted with other administrative tasks. We are also grateful for the help of Brian Tobachnick, who guided the panel through logistical arrangements for subsequent meetings and helped keep the finances and paperwork for the project under con- trol. Christine Chen made arrangements for our crucial final meeting in Boulder,

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . X111 Colorado, and helped transition the panel smoothly into the hands of Ana-Maria Ignat. Ana-Maria has been a steadfast help to the panel, not only by organizing logistical matters with ease and grace, but also by providing a great deal of re- search support and editorial expertise. Her assistance has made dealing with the final stages of editing and managing the manuscript a fluid and virtually worry- free process. We are grateful to all the individuals who contributed to this immense under- taking. It would not have been possible without their continual, generous, and imaginative support. Mark R. Montgomery and Richard Stren, Co-Chairs Panel on Urban Population Dynamics

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XIV Human Capital: Schooling, 164 Urban Well-Being: Concepts and Measures, 167 Access to Public Services, 171 Measuring Absolute Poverty in Cities, 183 Risk and Vulnerability, 187 Children's Lives, 191 Conclusions and Recommendations, 199 6 FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH The Urban Dimension, 205 An Empirical Overview, 213 Fertility Transitions and Economic Crises, 230 The Urban Poor, 235 Migrants, 246 Urban Adolescents, 251 Urban Service Delivery, 255 Conclusions and Recommendations, 260 7 MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY: IS CITY LIFE GOOD FOR YOUR HEALTH? Distinctive Aspects of Urban Health 267 The Disease Spectrum, 269 Recent Evidence on Children's Health and Survival, 277 A Penalty for the Urban Poor?, 288 Health Service Provision and Treatment Seeking, 293 Conclusions and Recommendations, 300 8 THE URBAN ECONOMY TRANSFORMED Sector and Space, 306 Economic Returns to Schooling, 323 Migration and Economic Mobility, 326 The Informalization of Urban Labor Markets, 336 Earnings Inequality: Case Studies, 344 The Future: Global Links and Local Outcomes, 348 Conclusions and Recommendations, 356 9 THE CHALLENGE OF URBAN GOVERNANCE The Concept of Urban Governance, 361 Major Challenges of Urban Governance in Developing Countries, 367 Is There a "Best" Model of Urban Metropolitan Governance?, 406 Conclusions and Recommendations, 41 1 10 LOOKING AHEAD CONTENTS 203 264 304 359 414

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION The Demographic Transformation, 11 The Transformation of Cities, 17 The Panel's Charge, 25 Study Scope and Approach, 27 Organization of the Report, 28 2 WHY LOCATION MATTERS Places, Networks, Neighborhoods, 31 Sustaining Diversity: Economic Interactions, 51 City Systems and City-Regions, 58 From Government to Governance, 64 What Remains of the Urban/Rural Divide?, 67 URBAN POPULATION CHANGE: A SKETCH Cities Amid Global Forces, 76 Key Demographic Features of the Urban Transition, 81 Major Regional Differences, 95 Conclusions, 106 4 URBAN POPULATION DYNAMICS: MODELS, MEASURES, AND FORECASTS The Simple Analytics, 110 Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Urban Age Structure, 120 Core Issues in Definition and Measurement, 128 Projecting Urban Populations, 141 Statistical Systems for Disaggregated Data, 146 Conclusions and Recommendations, 151 5 DIVERSITY AND INEQUALITY A Spatial Perspective, 157 xv 9 29 75 108 155

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XVI Human Capital: Schooling, 160 Urban Well-Being: Concepts and Measures, 164 Access to Public Services, 167 Measuring Absolute Poverty in Cities, 180 Risk and Vulnerability, 184 Children's Lives, 188 Conclusions and Recommendations, 195 6 FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH The Urban Dimension, 200 An Empirical Overview, 209 Fertility Transitions and Economic Crises, 226 The Urban Poor, 231 Migrants, 242 Urban Adolescents, 247 Urban Service Delivery, 251 Conclusions and Recommendations, 255 MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY: IS CITY LIFE GOOD FOR YOUR HEALTH? Distinctive Aspects of Urban Health, 262 The Disease Spectrum, 262 Recent Evidence on Children's Health and Survival, 272 A Penalty for the Urban Poor?, 284 Health Service Provision and Treatment Seeking, 289 Conclusions and Recommendations, 295 8 THE URBAN ECONOMY TRANSFORMED Sector and Space, 302 Economic Returns to Schooling, 319 Migration and Economic Mobility, 322 The Informalization of Urban Labor Markets, 331 Earnings Inequality: Case Studies, 340 The Future of Urban Labor Markets: Global Links and Local Outcomes, 343 Conclusions and Recommendations, 352 9 THE CHALLENGE OF URBAN GOVERNANCE The Concept of Urban Governance, 357 Major Challenges of Urban Governance in Developing Countries, 363 Is There a "Best" Model of Urban Governance?, 401 Conclusions and Recommendations, 407 CONTENTS 199 259 300 355

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CONTENTS 10 LOOKING AHEAD Directions for Future Research, 412 Improving the Research Infrastructure, 414 REFERENCES APPENDICES A Concepts and Definitions of Metropolitan Regions B Mathematical Derivations C Linking DHS Surveys to United Nations City Data D United Nations Estimates and Projections E Measuring Relative Poverty with DHS Data F Recommendations for the Demographic and Health Surveys Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff INDEX . . XV11 410 419 481 484 487 495 499 503 507 515

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Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World

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