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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2003. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10693.
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Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World Index A urbanization decoupled from Abidjan, 225, 391–394 industrialization, 82 Abortion rates, 219–220 Agency for International Development, 402 Absolute poverty, 180–184 Agglomeration economies, 307–312 numbers of urban residents living in, 2 Aggregate census-based method, 121 research focused on, 287–288 AIDS awareness, variation within urban settings Access to services, 2, 167–180, 196, 251–255 in, 5 decentralization of reproductive health Albania, 66 services, 251–253 American Community Survey, 483 differences by city size, 172–174 Argentina, 95 examples of intracity differentials in water Arms dealing, 347 supply, 178 Asia factors blocking, 253–254 cities of more than 750,000 population in, improving the quality and accessibility of 103 care, 253–254 HIV levels in, 224 measures of in the demographic and health population doubling in, 12 surveys, 170 population growth in cities and towns of, 3 need to improve data systems on, 4 population trends in, 91 poverty among the underserved migrants, urban population change in, 102–106 176–177 See also Pacific Asia services and the poor, 174–176 Asian Development Bank’s Cities Data Book, Accidents, higher urban rates of, 263 168 Accra, Ghana, 178, 180, 213, 220, 260, 286–287 Asian “triangles,” 79 Adaptation hypothesis, regarding migrants, Aspatial analysis of poverty, 232–238, 302 243 Assets, 4, 62, 165 Addis Ababa, 231 Authority dimension of urban governance, Adult educational attainment, rural and urban 390–401 areas, 162 Africa cities of more than 750,000 population B in, 100 Bangalore, 49, 150 colonial background of, 100–101 Bangalore Urban Poverty Alleviation marginalized in new global economy, Programme (BUPP), 49 101–102 Bangkok, 19, 357–362, 481 population doubling in, 12 characterization of main zones in the population growth in cities and towns of, 3 extended metropolitan region of, urban population change in, 99–102 362 515 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World 516 INDEX growth rate in, 64 C HIV levels in, 224–225 Cairo, 14, 68, 69, 99, 136–138, 203 migrants to, 329 Calcutta, 105, 224 Bangladesh Cambodia, 48 cities abandoned by public sector services Cameroon, 251 in, 254 Cancers, higher urban rates of, 263 intraurban differences in infant mortality Capacity dimension in urban governance, 7–8, rates in, 285 363–371 urban boundaries in, 317 Cape Town, South Africa, 17, 245 Barriers to mobility, 333–337 Capital formation, 352 Basic services, 165 Cardiovascular disease, 263 in which urban environments differ from Caribbean rural, 70 cities of more than 750,000 population in, 97 Beijing, 84 HIV levels in, 224 Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo (BESETO), 78 Cartagena, Colombia, 185 Belo Horizonte, Brazil, 378 CBOs. See Community-based organizations “Better Cities Network of East and South-East CBSA. See Core-based statistical area Asian Cities,” 402 classification Bhilwara, India, 179 Census-based method Birth attendance, variation within urban settings aggregate, 121 in, 5 problem of intervals, 355 Botswana, 213 Centralized model, of urban governance, 361, HIV in, 222 407 Boundaries Chandigarh, India, 194 city, 136–137 Chiang Mai, Thailand, 246 jurisdictional conflicts, 2 “Chicago School,” 30 Bras´ılia, 140 Child mortality, 127, 278–282, 295–297 Brazil, 340–341 “Child quality,” 34–35 declining growth rates experienced by Child trafficking, 347 largest cities in, 120 Children’s health, 272–278, 296 foreign direct investment in, 78 Children’s lives, 188–195 impact of better education in, 321 China, 337–338, 343–344 Northeastern, child mortality rates in, 39 changing urban definitions in, 134 “participatory budgeting” in, 376–378 Cultural Revolution in, 145, 307 population pyramid for urban, 129 family planning needs in, 245 residual earnings variance in Brazil’s largest foreign direct investment in, 78 cities, 341 household registration system in, 327 rising inequalities in urban incomes, 7 impact of national economic restructuring urban relative to rural age composition of on rural populations near cities, 63 men and women in, 129 a predominantly rural country, 104 Breastfeeding, 212n rising inequalities in urban incomes, 7, “Bridging,” role of social networks, 48 183–184 Broken windows theory, 40 urban boundaries in, 317 Buenos Aires, 96, 158, 285, 337 Chronic “lifestyle” diseases, 268–269 gated communities, 159 Circular migration, 225 Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, 240, 242 Cities BUPP. See Bangalore Urban Poverty Alleviation amid global forces, 76–81 Programme characteristics of, 10 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World INDEX 517 concentration of social and economic Community dynamics, social capital and, 41–42 resources in, 2 Completed schooling for adults, in rural and emerging regional networks, 78–79 urban areas, 161, 163 financial services and foreign direct Comprehensive model, of urban governance, investment, 77–78 361, 405–407 forced to redefine their comparative “Compression,” of social relationships, 45 advantages, 1 “Computable general equilibrium” model, 304 growth rates in large versus small, 15 Congestion, 2 markets and volatility, 78, 80 Contraceptive use, 5, 214–216, 219 mortality and morbidity in, 5–6, 22–23, Core-based statistical area (CBSA) 259–299 classification, 482–483 networks in, 75 Coronary heart disease, 263 optimal size, 56n Cˆote d’Ivoire, 160 with over a million residents, 84 Countries covered by DHS surveys, 490 problems of poorest, 370 Crime rates, 56 reinventing themselves, 77 “Crisis-led” fertility, 226, 230 their regions, and the international Cultural conflict, 38 economy, 23–25 Cultural Revolution, 145 world cities, 80–81 Cumulative measures, 112 See also individual cities and countries Currencies, world markets in, 80 Cities Data Book project, 167–168 City boundaries, 136–137 City growth from migration and natural increase, D 112–114 Dakar, 205 City-level population data, 135–141 Dakshinpuri, India, 240, 242 Bras´ılia, 140 DALY. See Disability-adjusted life year city boundaries, 136–137 predictions Kitwe, Zambia, 141 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 178, 186, 269 Niamey, Niger, 140 Data systems S˜ao Paulo, 139 need to computerize, 147, 356 Shubra-El-Khema, 138 need to improve, 4 United Nations population estimates, Decentralization, 64–66, 95, 390, 408, 411 138–141 Deconcentration, 313–317 City size categories, 489 Definition and measurement issues, 128–141 City systems and city-regions, 58–64 Delhi, 105 Clustering, 36–37 Demand for manufactured goods and services, advantages of, 309 income elasticity of, 302 Cobb-Douglas production function, 311n Democratization, 95 Cochabamba, Bolivia, 245 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), 27, 94, Collective socialization, 37 108, 120, 122–128, 152, 154, 156, 163, Colombia, 252 177–179, 200, 227, 229, 488–494, 505 Commercial sex work, 225 on children’s health needs, 261, 272, Common resources, 36–37 277–279, 282 Communicable diseases, 73 limitations of, 109, 411, 503 greater vulnerability of city dwellers to, 259 linking to United Nations city data, 487–494 impact on children’s health, 264 measuring relative urban poverty with data new and reemergent, 269–270 from, 499–502 Community-based organizations (CBOs), 49 need for spatial identifiers for all surveys, 4 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World 518 INDEX recommendations for, 503–505 China, 343 refining urban indicators in, 416–417 Taiwan, 342–343 showing declines in both urban and rural East Asia, 88, 94n mortality, 6 Economic crises, 66, 230, 282–283 Demographic behavior theory, 34–40 in cities of Kazakhstan, 283 social learning via social networks, 35–36 fertility transitions and, 226–231 Demographic features of the urban transition, Economic resources, concentrated in cities, 2 81–95 “Ecumenopolis.” See Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo Demographic transformation, 11–17 Education, 4, 196–197, 248–249 Demographic transition theory, 21 dropout rates, 350 Demographic Yearbooks, 26–27, 109, 131, “Efficiency wage” models, 325n 135–139, 412, 415, 487, 504 Electricity, 4, 63, 170, 505 Depression, 267 Elite neighborhoods, 19 Desakota zones, 61–62, 67 Employment Deutsche Gesellschaft f¨ur Technische See Urban labor markets Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), 402 EMRs. See Extended metropolitan regions Dhaka, Bangladesh, 5, 22, 105, 206, 254, 285 Engel’s law, 302–304 DHS. See Demographic and Health Surveys Environmental hazards, 4, 7, 262 Diffusion, 5 Epidemics, 282–283 Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) Export Group Report, 183 predictions, 264–266, 269 Extended metropolitan regions (EMRs), Disease spectrum, 262–272, 297 19 chronic “lifestyle” diseases, 268–269 External economies, of proximity, 54–56 injuries, 265–267 mental health, 267–268 new and reemergent communicable diseases, F 269–270 Faisalabad, Pakistan, 254 the urban penalty, 270–272 Families See also Communicable diseases embedded in social contexts, 29 Diseconomies of proximity, 56 reproductive strategies of, 256 Disruption hypothesis, regarding migrants, 243 Family planning programs Diversity, 204, 315 private sector in, 254–255 ability of local governments to cope with, 8 urban, 107 dimension in urban governance, 378–384 Family Planning Service Expansion and in economic interactions, 51–57 Technical Support (SEATS) project, effects of, 54 253 in Manila, 383–384 FDI. See Foreign direct investment in Rio de Janeiro, 380–381 Fertility and reproductive health, 4–5, 20–22, in S˜ao Paulo, 381–383 199–258 spatial theories of, 20, 52–56 access to services, 257–258 See also Socioeconomic diversity and contraception, 214–216 inequality fertility behavior and trends, 256 Doi Moi program, 244 fertility transitions and economic crises, Drinking water, measures of access to, 170 226–231 Drug trafficking, 347 HIV/AIDS, 222–226 maternal care, 221–222 E migrants, 242–246 Earnings inequality case studies, 340–343 sexual unions and first marriage, 212–214 Brazil, 340–341 social and economic contexts, 201–206 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World INDEX 519 total fertility rates in rural and urban areas, pervasive influence of, 74 210 spatial organization of activities of, 34 unmet need for contraception and Growth unintended fertility, 216–221 contribution of migration to urban growth, urban adolescents, 247–251 89–90 the urban dimension, 200–209 natural increase and migration, 89–92 the urban poor, 231–242 rate of, 485 urban service delivery, 251–255 rural-to-urban migration rates, 90–92 Fertility declines Growth “triangles,” 79 mortality decline following, 94–95 GTZ. See Deutsche Gesellschaft f¨ur Technische urbanization as a precondition for, 21 Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) Financial resources, 371–378 Guayaquil, Ecuador, 178 Financial services, 8, 77–78 Fixed-rates model, 484 “Floating” population, 134, 177 H Floods, 187 Habitat II, 402 Foreign direct investment (FDI), 77–78, 305n, Hanoi, Vietnam, 255 344–346 Havana, 220, 373 Formal institutions, social capital in, 387 Hazards. See Environmental hazards Formal sector Health, 1–2, 22–23, 40–41, 70, 297, 299 versus informal sector, 289 See also Communicable diseases; jobs in, 301 Reproductive health services wages in, 324 Health service provision, 289–295 For-profit services, versus not-for-profit, 289 HIV/AIDS epidemic, 222–226, 282–283 Fragmented model, of urban governance, 361, Homicides, 266, 386 405–407 Hong Kong, 77, 81n, 94, 102, 338 Household age composition, in rural and urban areas, 131 G Household registration system, 327 Geocoded data, 8 Household relations, social capital in, 388–390 Geographic information systems (GIS), Household structure, factors disrupting, 194 109–110, 147–151, 414, 504 Housing, 50, 73, 364 GEOPOLIS database, 134 HPI. See Human Poverty Index Ghana, 36, 130, 322 Human capital, 70, 72, 160–163, 196–197 GIS. See Geographic information systems Human Development Report, 164n Global Burden of Disease, 269 Human Poverty Index (HPI), 164n Global circuits, 1, 24 Hyderabad, 150 Global economy, 101–102 Global Report on Human Settlements, 373 I Global Urban Indicators Database, 368–369 Ile-Ife, Nigeria, 220 Globalization, 75–76, 95, 106 ILO. See International Labour Organization Governance. See Urban governance Income, 4, 6, 165 Government Finance Statistics Yearbook, 373 Income elasticity, 302 Governments India, 48, 149–150, 309 dimension in which urban environments Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellites, 149 differ from rural, 70 Indonesia, 7, 94, 102, 306, 345, 350 moving to “governance,” 64–67 Inequality. See Socioeconomic diversity and operating on a territorial basis, 20 inequality Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World 520 INDEX Infant mortality rates, 127, 271, 278–282, Lagos, 14, 99, 142 295–296 Lahore, Pakistan, 240 Infectious diseases, 5 “Land invasions,” 74 Informal economy Landslides, 187 earnings in, 323n Large cities, 84–89 versus formal sector, 289 in the countries covered by DHS surveys, internationalization of, 347 494 tiers within, 339 unique needs of, 16 urban population growth swelling, 334 Larkana, Pakistan, 255 Informalization of urban labor markets, 331–340 Latin America Injuries, 265–267 cities of more than 750,000 population in, 97 Inter- and intraurban differentials, 2, 6 HIV levels in, 224 “Intergenerational closure,” of individual social homicide levels in, 266, 386 networks, 41 migration rates in, 91 Intergovernmental transfers, and targeted social population doubling in, 12 assistance, 66 population growth in cities and towns of, 3 Internal economies, of scale and proximity, social and environmental movements in, 53–54 390 International Crime Victimization Survey, 385n urban growth slowing in, 98 International Labour Organization (ILO), 332 urban population change in, 96–99 International Monetary Fund, 373 urbanization in, 12, 87, 95 International Programs Center, 413 Lesotho, 292 IRS. See Indian Remote Sensing satellites Ley de Participaci´on Popular, 374, 390 Local participation, in Chinese cities, 399–401 J Localization economies, 308–311 Jakarta, Indonesia, 19, 145, 235n “Localization effects,” 53n, 54 Jordan, 150–151 Location, 29–74 Jos, Nigeria, 220 city systems and city-regions, 58–64 Jurisdictional conflicts, 404–405, 408 dimensions in which urban environments differ from rural, 70 from government to governance, 64–67 K intergovernmental transfers and targeted Kaplan-Meier estimator, 278 social assistance, 66 Karachi, Pakistan, 105, 145, 220, 238, 240, 257 neighborhoods and demographic behavior Kazakhstan, 283, 333, 351–352 theory, 34–40 Kelley-Williamson, 304 neighborhoods and larger structures, 46–49 Kenya, 36, 321–322 new conceptualizations needed, 412 Kinshasa, Zaire, 237 social capital, 40–42 Kitwe, Zambia, 139, 141 spatial segregation, 42–46 Korea, 59, 314 spatial theories of, 52–56 Kuala Lumpur, 77 sustaining diversity in, 51–57 Kumasi, Ghana, 179 the urban/rural divide, 67–74 Kuwait, 150 using multiple data sources to define KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, 246, 330 urbanness in Cairo, 69 Kyrgyzstan, 188, 333, 351 Locational price differences and nonfood needs, 180–183 L adjusting poverty rates for geographic Labor force, urban economy and, 6–7, 23–25, differences in prices in the United States, 57, 300–354 181 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World INDEX 521 London, 77, 80, 85 urban subsystem of, 18 Los Angeles, 33, 481 varying levels of income across, 43 Micropolitan areas, 482 Midwives, 290 M Migrant shares of urban growth, 111, 114, Macroeconomic stability, 66 120–121 Macropolitan areas, 482 Migrants, 122–125, 242–246 Madras, 150 permanent versus temporary, 328 Mahila Milan, 48, 71, 167 poverty among underserved, 176–177 Malaria, 263 pre-arranged employment among, 326–327 Malawi, 224 urban migrant-nonmigrant differences in Malaysia, 94, 102, 149–150 poverty and access to services of, Malnutrition, 263 501–502 Manila, 19, 383–384 Migration, 2 Manufacturing, advanced economies shifting changes in rural and urban crude birth rates away from, 1 and age structure with, 119 Marriage, 256 contribution to urban growth, 89–90 Marshall, Alfred, 310 and nature of previous residence, 278–279 Maternal care, 221–222 rural-to-urban, contribution to urban growth, percentage of women with recent births 3, 152, 243 attended by physicians or selectivity hypothesis, disruption hypothesis, nurse/midwives in rural and urban areas, and adaptation hypothesis, 243 221 in the spread of AIDS, 225 percentages of women delivering recent studies of, 7 births at home, in a public sector and urban age structure, 117–120 institution, or in a private-sector in rural urban-to-rural, in West Africa, 91n and urban areas, 222 Migration and economic mobility, 322–331 Maternal mortality rates (MMRs), 241, 263 composition of migrant streams, 327–329 Megacities, 1, 14–17, 88–89 revisiting the Todaro and Harris-Todaro “Megalopolis,” 60 models, 323–327 Megapolitan areas, 482 urban economic mobility, 329–331 Mental health, 267–268 Mixed model, of urban governance, 407 Metropolitan regions, concepts and definitions MMRs. See Maternal mortality rates of, 481–483 Mongolia, 232 Mexico Monterrey, Mexico, 178 calculating production benefits in, 310 Mortality and morbidity in cities, 5–6, 22–23, disability-adjusted years of life lost in, 259–299 265 boosting the contribution of natural increase employment transitions in urban, 335 to urban growth, 3 foreign direct investment in, 78 child survival and child health, 295–297 migration in, 122n crisis in Russia, social capital and, 41 urban share of national economy in, 303 crude death rates by neighborhood in urban transformation in, 60 Accra, 260 worker mobility in, 333–336 the disease spectrum, 262–272, 297 Mexico City, 68, 85, 87, 96, 143, 394–398 distinctive aspects of urban health, openness of international trade in, 315 262 political parties in, 397–398, 403–404 health service provision and treatment socioeconomic levels by geostatistical seeking, 289–295 areas, 44 a penalty for the urban poor, 284–289 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World 522 INDEX recent evidence on children’s health and New York City, 77, 80, 85, 87 survival, 272–283 Newly industrializing economies (NIEs), 102 trends over time, 299 NGOs. See Nongovernmental organizations the urban health penalty, 297 Niamey, Niger, 139–140 “Moving to Opportunity” experiment, 50 NIES. See Newly industrializing economies Mumbai, 85, 238 Nonagricultural occupations, 73 federation of low-income groups in, 48 Nonagricultural population of cities and towns GIS initiatives in greater, 150 (NPCT), 134 HIV levels in, 224 Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 47, 49, informal jobs in, 333 255 urban growth fueled by rural poverty, 105 operating on a territorial basis, 20 paying attention to street children, 194 spatial organization of activities of, 34 N NPCT. See Nonagricultural population of cities Nairobi Cross-Sectional Slums Survey, and towns 238–239, 249, 286 NSDF. See National Slum Dwellers Federation Nashville, Tennessee, 45n Nurse/midwives, proportion of women with Natal, Brazil, 201 recent births attended by, 236 National population growth, 116–117, 485 National Slum Dwellers Federation (NSDF), 48, O 71, 167 Obesity, 268–269 National statistical systems, 303 Occupational health and safety risks, in urban Natural disasters, 74 and rural areas, 73 Natural increase, contributing to urban growth, 3 OECD. See Organisation for Economic “Natural neighborhoods,” 31–32 Cooperation and Development Neighborhoods, 31–51 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and clustering, common resources, and Development (OECD), 145 contagion, 36–37 and demographic behavior theory, 34–40 elite, 19 P federation of low-income groups in Mumbai, Pacific Asia 48 dramatic economic growth in, 102 influence on fertility decisions, 5 formation of “urban corridors” in, 78 and larger structures, 46–49 rapid emergence of international orientations need for data on, 8 in, 24 participatory urban poverty programs in urbanization accelerating in, 2 Bangalore, 49 Pakistan, 241 services and the physical environment, “Participatory budgeting,” in Brazil, 376–378 39–40 “Peace communities,” 389 social comparisons and subculture conflict, Pecuniary externalities, 51, 308 38–39 “People’s power” movement, 390 social learning via social networks, 35–36 Periurban networks, 36 Neoliberalism, 365 Permanent migrants, versus temporary, 328 Neo-Malthusians, 23 Philippines, 48, 252–253, 372, 390 Neo-Marxist functionalists, 332n Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 224 Nepal, 255 Piped water, advantage enjoyed by large urban Network effects, 56 areas versus small, 4 See also Periurban networks; Rural Planning, barriers to, 355–356 networks; Social networks Poisson models, 219n Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World INDEX 523 Poland, workers’ movement in, 390 Q Policy reform, local dynamics of, 408–409 Qatar, 148 Poorest cities, problems of, 370 Quality of care issues, 293–294 Population data, need for adequate and “Quantity-quality trade-offs,” 51, 204–205, 230 comparable, 3–4 Quxi Road Market for Agricultural and Population Division, 4, 82, 109, 132, 153, 172 Non-staple Products, 400–401 World Urbanization Prospects, 26, 109, 135–139, 142, 152, 414–416, 487, 489, 496, 504 R Population growth, 3 Rate of urbanization, 112 declining rate of, 11, 89 Recent evidence on children’s health and estimated and projected, 12, 14 survival, 272–283 urban and rural, by region, 83 epidemics and economic crises, 282–283 Port Elizabeth, South Africa, 179 infant and child survival, 278–282 Porto Alegre, Brazil, 377 Reclassification, 89 Poverty, 4, 262 Reference groups, influence on fertility among underserved migrants, 176–177 decisions, 5 aspatial analysis of, 232–238 Referral system issues, 291–292 and children’s health, 275–277 Regional differences in urban population comparisons of urban and rural, 183–184 change, 95–106 dealing with, 166–167 Africa, 99–102 factors intensifying, 194 Asia, 102–106 spatially concentrated, 232, 238–242 Latin America, 96–99 and well-being, 197 Regional networks, 78–79 See also Absolute poverty; Relative urban Regional urban linkages, the Asian “triangles,” poverty; Urban poverty 79 Prices, 70, 81 Relative mobility, 330n Princeton European Fertility Project, 21 Relative urban poverty, 174, 499–500 Private access to sanitation, recommendations measuring with DHS data, 499–502 regarding, 504–505 predicted enrollment for children by, 190 Private medical sources of contraception, urban migrant-nonmigrant differences in 234 poverty and access to services of recent Private providers, 290–291 migrants, 501–502 Private sector, 5, 254–255, 291, 294 Remotely sensed data, 8 Productivity benefits, 309, 310 Reproductive health services Projections of urban populations, 141–146 access to, 257–258 Prostitution, 347 decentralization of, 5 Proximity, 32, 46, 53–54, 71 defining, 199 diseconomies of, 56 recommendations regarding, 505 external economies of, 54–56 Reproductive tract infections (RTIs), 242n “and high walls,” 157 Residual earnings variance internal economies of, 53–54 in Brazil’s largest cities, 341 spatial, 204 in Taiwan, 342 Prussian Kreise, 21 “Residual” method, 120–121 Public infrastructure, 165 Respiratory disease, higher rural rates of, Public services. See Access to services; 263 Services “Reverse polarization,” 98 Purdah, 206 Rio de Janeiro, 17, 85, 96, 285, 380–381 Pure externalities, 308 HIV levels in, 225 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World 524 INDEX Risk and vulnerability, 184–188 SEATS. See Family Planning Service Expansion RTIs. See Reproductive tract infections and Technical Support (SEATS) project Rural areas Sectoral influences, 304–307 access to services, 168–172 industrialization and social capital in AIDS awareness, 237 Indonesia, 306 children’s height for age and weight for versus spatial, 302 height at 2 years in, 273–274, 296 Security dimension in urban governance, contraceptive use, 216, 217 384–390 infant and child mortality for rural and urban Selectivity hypothesis, regarding migrants, areas, 127 243 levels of fertility and mortality, 125–128 Self-medication, 290 Rural fertility, 233 Seoul, 102 Rural growth, rate of, 486 Services Rural networks, 36 blocks to delivery of, 252–253 Rural populations, infant mortality estimates for, and the physical environment, 39–40 281 provision of better in cities than rural areas, Rural-to-urban migration 196 contributing to urban growth, 3, 108, 118 public versus private, 289 and earnings, 353 recommendations regarding delivery of, 198 rates of, 90–92 See also Access to services Rural total fertility rates less urban rates by Sex workers, HIV prevalence among, 224 region, in economic crises, 229 Sexual networks, urban, 207, 261 Rural/urban dichotomies. See Urban/rural Sexual unions, and first marriage, 212–214 dichotomies Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), 200–202, Russia, mortality crisis in, 41 212, 246, 255, 261, 270 Rwanda, 224 pharmacists treating, 255 See also HIV/AIDS epidemic SEZs. See Special Economic Zones S Shack/Slum Dwellers International (SDI), 48 Safety nets, 165 Shanghai, 220, 365–368 San Pedro Sula, Honduras, 264 Shantou, a Special Economic Zone, 104 Sanitary movement, 271 Shanty towns, 2 Santiago, Chile, 33–34, 220 Shelter, 165 spatial concentration of the elites of, 158 Shenzhen, a Special Economic Zone, 77, 104 Santo Domingo, 220 Shubra-El-Khema, 137–138 S˜ao Paulo, 9–10, 14, 17, 24, 60, 61, 87, 96, 139, Silk industry, 316 284–285, 333, 334, 381–383 Singapore, 94, 102 Savings rates, 305–306 Size distributions, and primacy, 58–60 Scale Slum Development Teams, 49 a defining feature of life in cities, 16 Small cities internal economies of, 53–54 combined impact of, 15 of urban economy and labor force, 6 disadvantages of, 257–258 School enrollments in urban areas, 188–191 health care needs in, 298 Schooling, 160–163 including in World Urbanization Prospects, advantage enjoyed by large urban areas 415 versus small, 4 “Smart interpolation” programs, 147 economic returns of, 301, 319–322 SMAs. See Standard metropolitan areas impact on contraceptive use, 4 Smuggling, globalization of, 347 SDI. See Shack/Slum Dwellers International Snow, John, 35 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World INDEX 525 Social accounting matrix techniques, applying to need to attend to the spatial aspects of, 20 trade in West Africa, 303 poverty and well-being, 197 Social capital, 40–42, 71 recommendations, 197–198 and community dynamics, 41–42 risk and vulnerability, 184–188 in formal institutions, 387 a spatial perspective, 157–160 health and, 40–41 urban well-being: concepts and measures, in household relations, 388–390 164–167 in informal community-level institutions, South Africa 387–388 anti-apartheid movement in, 390 and the mortality crisis in Russia, 41 groups of the poor in, 48 Social cohesion, 2, 288 and the imprint of inertia, 57n Social comparison theory, 38–39 likelihood of recent sex among adolescents Social comparisons, and subculture conflict, in, 248 38–39 new constitution in, 372–373 Social contagion, 36 South Asia, 78 Social contexts of fertility and reproductive South Korea, 94 health, 201–206 Southeast Asia the program and services environment, changes in rural economies and lifestyles in, 206–209 23 spatial differences in fertility rates in greater fertility decline preceding mortality decline Cairo, 203 in, 94n Social dimension, in which urban environments selected city growth rates in, 88 differ from rural, 70 Soviet republics, 105–106 Social embeddedness, 68 Space and measurement, 17–19 Social externalities, 51 SPARC. See Society for the Promotion of Area Social infrastructure, investments in greater in Resource Centres cities, 5 Spatial aspects of diversity and inequality, need Social learning to attend to, 20 influence on fertility decisions, 5 Spatial deconcentration, 313–317 via social networks, 35–36 Spatial influences, 157–160, 203, 307–312 Social marketing programs, 237, 250, 255 versus sectoral, 302 Social networks Spatial proximity, 204 “bridging” role of, 48, 311 Spatial segregation, 42–46 social learning via, 35–36 Spatial theories, 52–56 strong and weak ties in, 43n, 204 producer services and high-skill labor Social relationships, “compression” of, 45 markets, 55 Socialization, institutional, 37–38 Spatially concentrated poverty, 232, 238–242 Society for the Promotion of Area Resource urban/rural differences in maternal mortality Centres (SPARC), 48, 71, 167 in Pakistan, 241 Socioeconomic diversity and inequality, 4, Spatially disaggregated data, 412–413 19–20, 155–198 Special Economic Zones (SEZs), 77, 104 access to public services, 167–180, 196 “Splintering urbanism,” 379 childrens lives, 188–195 Squatter settlements within cities, 19–20 expanded by migrants into cities, 2 human capital, 196–197 projects to upgrade, 364 measuring absolute poverty in cities, Standard metropolitan areas (SMAs), 482 180–184 Statistical systems multiple dimensions of urban poverty, African initiatives, 148–149 165 decomposition of national, 303 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World 526 INDEX for disaggregated data, 146–151 TFRs. See Total fertility rates and GIS, 148–151 Thailand STDs. See Sexually transmitted diseases groups of the poor in, 48 Stocks, 80, 112 growing rates of per capita income in, 94 Street children, 191–195, 192–195 newly industrializing economies in, 102 alcohol and drug use by, 193 Time costs, 165 demographic profile, 192–193 Todaro and Harris-Todaro models, 323–327 interventions, 194–195 Tokyo, 77, 80, 85, 87 life on the street and its consequences, Total fertility rates (TFRs), 201, 210–211, 193–194 226–229 origins and causes, 194 estimates of, 126 sex of, 193 in rural and urban areas, 127, 210 “Stunted” children, 272 Total population of cities and towns (TPCT), 134 Sub-Saharan Africa Total urban population contraceptive use in, 36 growth by national income level, 13 deteriorating health conditions in, 6 and number of urban areas by size, 85 fertility rates in, 228 TPCT. See Total population of cities and towns GEOPOLIS database for, 134 Traditional birth attendants (TBAs), 241 having highest infant and child mortality Traditional healers, 290 rates worldwide, 295–296 Traditional providers, versus modern, 289 HIV seroprevalence rates, 222 Traffic accidents, 266–267 infant and child mortality rates increasing in, Transformation of cities, 17–25 296 demographic, 11–17 lack of foreign direct investment in, 78 fertility and reproductive health, 20–22 urban children fostered into care of rural governance, 25 relatives, 62 health, 22–23 weak macroeconomic growth in, 6 and the international economy, 23–25 Suburbanization, 481 socioeconomic diversity within cities, 19–20 Sudan, 331 space and measurement, 17–19 Sugar daddies, 249 Transient populations, in the spread of AIDS, 225 Treatment seeking, 289–291 T health service provision and, 289–295 Taichung, Taiwan, 30, 36, 202 patterns of, 290 Taipei, 19, 102 private providers, 290–291 Taiwan, 342–343 self-medication, 290 growing rates of per capita income in, 94 traditional healers, 290 impact of better education in, 320–321 Tuberculosis, 270 residual earnings variance in, 342 rising inequalities in urban incomes, 7 Tanzania, 322, 331 U TBAs. See Traditional birth attendants UNCHS. See United Nations Centre for Human Technological change, 2 Settlements Kelley-Williamson simulations of, 304 Undernutrition, 269 skill-bias in, 305 UNDP. See United Nations Development urban labor force dependent on, 352 Programme Technological externalities, 51 Unemployment, 325 Tegucigalpa, 224–225 UNICEF, 192 Temporary migrants, versus permanent, 328 Unintended fertility, 216–221 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World INDEX 527 Unipolar depression, 267 infant and child mortality in, 280 United Nations levels of fertility and mortality, 125–128 Demographic Yearbooks, 26–27, 109, 131, measures of access to basic public services, 135–139, 152, 415, 487, 504 170 estimates and projections from, 11–16, 84, poverty-related problems in, 262 88–90, 96, 106–107, 486, 489, 495–498 school enrollments in, 188–191 estimates of the contributions of migration Urban bias, 317–319 and reclassification to urban growth in Urban concepts, specifying in World developing countries, 90 Urbanization Prospects, 416 linking DHS data to city data from, 487–494 “Urban corridors,” formation of in Pacific Asia, need for critical review of data and 78 methodology of, 4, 82 Urban definitions Population Division, 4, 82, 109, 132, 153, allowing comparisons of alternative, 415 172 in the countries with a DHS survey, 490–493 Statistical Office, 132, 135 inconsistent, 132–135 underestimating city populations, 19, 99, Urban diseconomies, 98 143, 498 Urban economy and labor force, 6–7, 23–25, 57, United Nations Centre for Human Settlements 300–354 (UNCHS), 27, 97, 100, 103, 155, earnings inequality case studies, 340–343 367–369 economic returns to schooling, 319–322 United Nations Demographic Yearbook, global links and local outcomes, 343–352 computerizing, 415 informalization, 331–340 United Nations Development Programme migration and economic mobility, 322–331 (UNDP), 164n, 357 sectoral influences, 304–307 United Nations Habitat, Urban Management spatial deconcentration, 313–317 Program, 402 spatial influences, 307–312 “United Nations method.” See Urban/rural Urban family planning programs, 107 growth difference method Urban future, 11–14 Unmet need for contraception, and unintended Urban governance, 7–8, 25, 355–409 fertility, 216–221 the authority dimension, 390–401 Upward mobility, expectations of, 327n a “best” model of urban metropolitan Urban adolescents, 247–251 governance, 401–406 Urban advantage, 5–6 the capacity dimension, 363–371 calling into question, 5 the concept of urban governance, 357–362 demographic bonus, 352 the diversity dimension, 378–384 little significant erosion in for children, the financial resources dimension, 371–378 296–297 major challenges of urban governance in in reproductive health, 238, 257 developing countries, 363–401 Urban age structure, 128 the security dimension, 384–390 Urban agglomerations, 52, 86, 136 Urban growth, 3, 93, 111, 114–117, 486 Urban areas Urban health, distinctive features of, 259 access to services, 168–172 Urban labor force children’s height and weight in, 272–274, consequences of rapid growth in, 6 296 dependent on technological change and current use of modern contraceptives in, capital formation, 352 216 Urban labor markets, 331–340, 343–352 environmental problems in, 262 Urban Management Program, 402 infant and child mortality for rural and urban Urban migrants, 123–124, 126 areas, 127 Urban penalty, 259–260, 270–272, 284–289 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World 528 INDEX Urban poor, 231–242 improving the quality and accessibility of infant mortality estimates for, 281 care, 253–254 inferior access to basic amenities, 4 the private sector in family planning, inferior access to reproductive health 254–255 services, 257–258 Urban sexual networks, 207 mortality risks facing, 6, 297–298 Urban sociological research, 31 spatially concentrated poverty in, 238–242 Urban-to-rural migration flows, in West Africa, vulnerability to crises and disasters, 4, 267 91n Urban population dynamics, 3–4, 17–19, Urban total fertility rates by region, in economic 108–154 crises, 227 city growth from migration and natural Urban treatment seeking, 289–291 increase, 112–114 private providers, 290–291 definition and measurement, 128–141 self-medication, 290 fertility, mortality, migration, and urban age traditional healers, 290 structure, 120–128 “Urban villages,” 31 key concepts and notation, 110–112 Urban well-being, concepts and measures, migrant shares as calculated from censuses, 164–167 120–121 Urbanization migrants as recorded in the demographic and accelerating in Pacific Asia, 2 health surveys, 122–125 benefits derived from, 2, 8 migration and urban age structure, 117–120 decoupled from industrialization in Africa, projecting urban populations, 141–146 82 statistical systems for disaggregated data, effects of, 53n 146–151 inevitable tendency toward, 355 urban age structure, 128 level of, 485 urban and national population growth, as a precondition for fertility decline, 21 116–117 rate of, 92–93, 485 urban and rural levels of fertility and “splintering,” 379 mortality, 125–128 URGD declining with, 496 urban growth and the rate of urbanization, without development, 93 114–116 Urbanization economies, 308–309 Urban population growth, 75–107, 111 “Urbanness,” 172 cities amid global forces, 76–81 in Cairo, using multiple data sources to key demographic features of the urban define, 69 transition, 81–95 URGD. See Urban/rural growth difference major regional differences, 95–106 method swelling the informal sector, 334 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 95, 482 Urban poverty, 165, 174, 197, 499–500 American Community Survey, 483 Urban/rural dichotomies, 2, 4, 6, 70, 152, 256 HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data Base, Urban/rural growth difference (URGD) method, 224 132, 135, 141, 495–498 International Programs Center, 413 Urban/rural interface User fee issue, 292–293 linkage issues, 294–295 population growth rates within metropolitan S˜ao Paulo, 61 spaces and networks at, 60–64 V Urban service delivery, 251–255 Vietnam, migration in, 244 decentralization of reproductive health “Vigilance committees,” 374 services, 251–253 Violent crime, 266 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World INDEX 529 W World population growth, 1, 3–4, 108–154 Waste disposal, 4, 170–171 concentrated in urban areas, 82–84, “Wasted” children, 272 106 Water supply, 63, 178, 504 distribution by urban/rural and national See also Drinking water; Piped water income level, 13 Weak ties, in social networks, 204 World Urbanization Prospects, 26, 109, Weibull estimator, 278 135–139, 142, 152, 414–416, 487, 489, West Africa, 91n, 303 496, 504 WFS. See World Fertility Survey Women, 123–124, 221, 222, 225, 234, 236, X 238, 266, 300, 504 Xiamen, 104 World Bank, 183–184, 185n, 310, 346, 402 World cities, 80–81 World Development Report, 371 Z World Fertility Survey (WFS), 211, 226–227, Zambia, 224, 283, 348–349 229, 261, 282, 299, 411 Zhuhai, 104 World Health Organization, 186n, 267, 292 Zimbabwe, 237, 293 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Virtually all of the growth in the world's population for the foreseeable future will take place in the cities and towns of the developing world. Over the next twenty years, most developing countries will for the first time become more urban than rural. The benefits from urbanization cannot be overlooked, but the speed and sheer scale of this transformation present many challenges. A new cast of policy makers is emerging to take up the many responsibilities of urban governance—as many national governments decentralize and devolve their functions, programs in poverty, health, education, and public services are increasingly being deposited in the hands of untested municipal and regional governments. Demographers have been surprisingly slow to devote attention to the implications of the urban transformation.

Drawing from a wide variety of data sources, many of them previously inaccessible, Cities Transformed explores the implications of various urban contexts for marriage, fertility, health, schooling, and children's lives. It should be of interest to all involved in city-level research, policy, planning, and investment decisions.

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