Click for next page ( R2


The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
I~ r, Ire` '^ r] Operational eating and Evaluation Better Measurement and Test Design for the Interim Brigade Combat Team with Stryker Vehicles Phase I Report Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, DC www.nap.edu

OCR for page R1
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. DASW0 1 -02-C-DO l l between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authorks) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08936-0 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-5 1241-7 (PDF) Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://ww~v.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2003~. Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation: Better Measurement and Test Design for the Interim Brigade Combat Team with Stryker Vehicles. Phase I Report. Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle, Committee on National Statistics. Wash- ington, DC: The National Academies Press.

OCR for page R1
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Stienre, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of ~ . . Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given tO the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

OCR for page R1

OCR for page R1
PANEL ON OPERATIONAL TEST DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF THE INTERIM ARMORED VEHICLE STEPHEN M. POLLOCK (Chair9, Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan SETH BONDER, Consultant, Ann Arbor, Michigan MARION BRYSON, North Tree Fire International, Marina, California WILLIAM Q. MEEKER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University VIIAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan JOHN E. ROLPH, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California FRIEDRICH-WILHELM SCHOLL, The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington HAL S. STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine ALYSON G. WILSON, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JAMES P. McGEE, Staidly Director MICHAEL L. COHEN, Sta~O~icer MICHAEL l. SIRI, Project Assistant v

OCR for page R1
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2002-2003 JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair9, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California JOSEPH G. ALTONII, Department of Economics, Yale University ROBERT BELL, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania ROBERT M. GROVES, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan JOEL HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, Northwestern University WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina ARLEEN LEIBOWITZ, School of Public Policy Research, University of California, Los Angeles THOMAS A. LOUIS, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University VIIAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey KENNETH PREWITT, Department of Political Science, Columbia University NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of Michigan ANDREW A. WHITE, Director v'

OCR for page R1
Contents Preface Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2 Test Process 3 Test Measures 4 Statistical Design 5 Data Analysis 6 Assessing the IBCT/Stryker Operational Test in a Broad Context References v'' . 1X 1 11 23 31 59 76 87 97

OCR for page R1
vIll Appendices A Letter Report of the Panel to the Army Test and Evaluation Command B Force Exchange Ratio, Historical Win Probability, and Winning with Decisive Force C Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff CONTENTS 99 105 109

OCR for page R1
Preface The activities of the National Research Council (NRC) cover a wide variety of assignments, in which panels of experts are asked to prepare con- sensus reports on technical problems or public policy questions; survey scientific, medical, or engineering knowledge; and sponsor roundtables, forums, and meetings that focus on airing and supporting the resolution of . . . controversial Issues. The Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle has been charged with a less common task: providing an assessment and review of an ongoing activity, the operational testing of an important military system. The procedures for the extremely complex and highly sensitive testing, which has yet to be carried out, are specified in the Army's system evaluation plan (SEP) for the Stryker family of vehicles. Both the panel and our sponsor acknowledge that the SEP is a "living document" (or moving target); this has already been manifest by the study's being overtaken by a number of events during the 1 1 months of the panel's tenure: The Interim Armored Vehicle (IAV) in the panel's initial (and offi- cial) name and statement of work has been renamed the Stryker family of vehicles. The Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) concept, for which the Stryker is intended to provide mobility and "situation awareness" support, has been continuously evolving. fix

OCR for page R1
x PREFACE The timing of the initial operational test (JOT) has been delayed from early 2002 to mid-2003. There has been a leadership change in the Army Test and Evalua- tion Command (ATEC), the study sponsor. Three battalions, equipped with Stryker vehicles as they are being produced (but without their armor), are currently undergoing training at Fort Lewis and thus are a potential source of evaluative data. Despite the difficulties of operating in this fluid environment, we have been able to build on the recommendations of an earlier NRC report by treating the Stryker initial operational test as a case study of how the de- fense community might make more effective use of test resources and the analysis of test data. Our main conclusion is that operational tests should be used not only for go/no go decisions or confirming that a system meets predetermined technical criteria, but also, even more important, for the improvement of the capabilities and performance of the system. We have been able to do this only because of the excellent and unfet- tered cooperation and information obtained from the staff of ATEC, in particular its previous commanding officer, Major General John Marcello, Frank I. Apicella (technical director of the Army Evaluation Center), and Major David Rohall (Stryker IOT evaluator). This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with proce- dures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as pos- sible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objec- tivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review com- ments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the re- view of this report: Herman Chernoff, Professor Emeritus of Statistics, Harvard University; John D. Christie, Senior Fellow, Logistics Manage- ment Institute; Donald P. Gaver, fir., Distinguished Professor of Operations Research, Naval Postgraduate School; and Dennis E. Smallwood, Professor of Social Science, U.S. Military Academy. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its

OCR for page R1
PREFACE X' release. The review of this report was overseen by William F. Eddy, Depart- ment of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an indepen- dent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institu- tional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. This report is the collective product of the entire panel, and each mem- ber took an active role in drafting sections of chapters, leading discussions, and reading and commenting on successive drafts. Staff at the NRC made important contributions to our work in many ways. We express our appre- ciation to Andrew White, director of the Committee on National Statistics, for his valuable insight, guidance, and support, and to Michael Siri, the panel's project assistant, who was indispensable in organizing meetings, arranging travel, compiling agenda materials, coordinating with the inter- ested community, copyediting and formatting the report, and managing the exchange of documentation among the committee members. Stephen M. Pollock, Chair James P. McGee, Staidly Director Michael L. Cohen, Sta~O~icer Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle

OCR for page R1