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Appendix C Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff STEPHEN POLLOCK (Chair) is Herrick professor of manufacturing in the Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering at the Univer- sity of Michigan. His research interests are in mathematical modeling, op- erations research, and Bayesian decision theoretic methods. A former mem- ber of the U.S. Army Science Board (1994-1999), he was a member of the National Research Council's (NRC) Committee on Applied and Theoreti- cal Statistics, and he also served on the Panel on Statistical Methods for Testing and Evaluating Defense Systems of the Committee on National Statistics. In addition to his career at the University of Michigan, he spent four years at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. He has S.M. and Ph.D. degrees in physics and operations research from the Massachusetts Insti- tute of Technology. SETH BONDER was until recently chairman and chief executive officer of Vector Research. His area of expertise is military strategy and decision making. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a fellow of the Military Operations Research Society, winner of the Kimball Award from the Operations Research Society of America, recipient of the Award for Patriotic Civilian Service (awarded by the secretary of the Army), and the Vance R. Wanner Memorial Award winner from the Military Opera- tions Research Society. He was a member of the U.S. Defense Science Board summer studies on new operational concepts and on fire support opera- tions. He is a member of the U.S. Army Science Board. He served as a first 109

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110 IMPROVED OPERATIONAL TESTING AND EVALUATION lieutenant and a captain of the U.S. Air Force. He has a Ph.D. in industrial engineering (operations research) from Ohio State University. MARION BRYSON is director of research and development at North Tree Fire, International. He was until recently technical director, TEXCOM Experimentation Command, Fort Hood, Texas, and prior to that, director CDEC, Fort Ord, California. He has extensive experience in testing and evaluating defense systems in development. He served as a member of the NRC's Panel on Statistical Methods for Testing and Evaluating Defense Systems of the Committee on National Statistics. He is also a past president and fellow of the Military Operations Research Society, a recipient of the Vance Wanner Memorial Award for leadership in operations research from the Military Operations Research Society, and a recipient of the S.S. Wilks award for research in experimental design. He served as the chief scientist on a task force that developed the requirements for the Apache helicopter, and was a previous associate editor of MORS. He has a Ph.D. in statistics from Iowa State University. MICHAEL L. COHEN is a senior program officer for the Committee on National Statistics. Previously, he was a mathematical statistician at the Energy Information Administration, an assistant professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of Maryland, a research associate at the Committee on National Statistics, and a visiting lecturer at the Depart- ment of Statistics, Princeton University. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association. His general area of research is the use of statistics in public policy, with particular interest in census undercount and model vali- dation. He is also interested in robust estimation. He has a B.S. degree in mathematics from the University of Michigan and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in statistics from Stanford University. NAMES P. McGEE has been since 1994 a senior project officer at the NRC. In addition to directing this panel, he directs the Panel on Assessing the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System of the Committee on Na- tional Statistics; projects on health and safety needs of older workers and on susceptibility of older persons to environmental hazards of the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences; and the panel on soldier sys- tems of the Army Research Laboratory Technical Assessment Board. He has also supported numerous other NRC projects in the areas of human factors psychology, engineering, and education. Prior to joining the NRC,

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APPENDIX C: BIOGRAPHICALSKETCHES 111 he held technical and management positions as an applied cognitive psy- chologist at IBM, General Electric, RCA, General Dynamics, and Sikorsky Aircraft corporations. He has a B.A. from Princeton University and a Ph.D. from Fordham University, both in psychology, and for several years in- structed postsecondary courses in applied psychology. WILLIAM Q. MEEKER is distinguished professor of liberal arts and sci- ences in the Department of Statistics at Iowa State University. His area of expertise is reliability assessment in industrial settings. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association, an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, a winner of the Frank Wilcoxon prize for the best prac- tical application paper in Technometrics (three times), and a winner of the Youden prize for the best expository paper in Technometrics (also three times). His book (coauthored with Luis A. Escobar) Statistical Methods for Reliability Data won the Excellence and Innovation in Engineering Award from the Professional/Scholarly Publishing Division of the Association of American Publishers. He has extensive service as editor and associate editor of Technometrics and other distinguished journals. He has a Ph.D. in statis- tics from Union College. VIlAYAN NAIR is a professor and currently chair in the Department of Statistics at the University of Michigan. Prior to this, he worked for 12 years as a research scientist at Bell Laboratories. His area of expertise is statistical methods applied to industrial problems, especially in experimen- tal design. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association, a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, an elected member of the Interna- tional Statistical Institute, and a senior member of the American Society for Quality. He is a winner of the Frank Wilcoxon prize for best practical appli- cations paper in Technometrics, and he served as its editor from 1990 to 1992. He was a member of the NRC's Panel on Statistical Methods for Testing and Evaluating Defense Systems of the Committee on National Statistics and also served on the Panel on Information Technology. He has a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of California, Berkeley. JOHN ROLPH is a professor and chair of the industrial operations and management department in the Marshall School of Business at the Univer- sity of Southern California. Previously he spent 24 years as a statistician at RAND, 12 of them as head of the statistical research and consulting group. His area of expertise is empirical Bayes estimation and statistics and public

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112 IMPROVED OPERATIONAL TESTING AND EVALUATION policy. He is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, a fellow of the American Statistical Association, a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society. He has served as a member and now chair of the NRC's Committee on National Statistics, and as member of its Panel on Statistical Methods for Testing and Evaluating Defense Systems. He has also served on three other panels of the NRC. He was for three years editor of Chance magazine and in many other editorial capacities. He has a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Cali- fornia, Berkeley. FRITZ SCHOLZ is senior statistical analyst in the applied statistics group of The Boeing Company, where he has worked for 23 years. While work- ing for Boeing he has worked on reliability problems in a large variety of industrial settings, including analysis of airplane accident data, analysis of engine failures, modeling of software reliability, nuclear safety, the reliabil- ity of rocket motors, nonparametric risk assessment, development of com- puter models for lightning risk assessment, spares forecasting, and space debris risk assessment. He has contributed to activities related to MIL- HDBK-5 and -17. He was a presenter at the workshop on reliability issues for defense systems held by the NRC's Committee on National Statistics. He is a Boeing technical fellow and a fellow of the American Statistical Association. He has a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of California, Berkeley. HAL STERN is professor and chair in the Department of Statistics at the University of California, Irvine. His area of expertise is Bayesian methods. He is coauthor of Bayesian Data Analysis (with Andrew Gelman, John Carlin, and Donald Rubin). He is a fellow of the American Statistical Asso- ciation and has served as editor of Chance magazine. He has a Ph.D. from Stanford University. ALYSON WILSON is a technical staff member of the Los Alamos Labora- tory Statistical Sciences Group. Prior to that, she was employed by Cowboy Programming Resources, Inc., where she provided analytic support for U.S. Army operational tests of air defense weapon systems. She has written on operational test and evaluation and the use of Bayesian methods. She has a Ph.D. in statistics from Duke University, where her thesis was selected as the winner of the Savage Dissertation Award by the American Statstical Association's section on bayesian statistics.