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OCR for page 84
Jlnu
Kurt Landgraf,~ President
Educational Testing Service (ETS)
FINDINGS
The United States is expected to face a growing demand for techni-
cally trained workers over the next 20 years as the baby boomers retire.
From 2000 to 2010, for example, the number of job openings for computer
specialists is expected to grow by a remarkable 69 percent, to about 4.9
million jobs. Employment growth for physical scientists (+18 percent),
engineers (+9 percent), and mathematical scientists (+6 percent) is also
expected to be substantial.2
At the same time, the supply of young persons who have the techni-
cal education and training to fill these job openings appears to be shrink-
ing or, at least, the pool is not growing quickly enough to fill the pro-
jected demand. From 1987-88 to 1997-98, the percentage of bachelor's
degrees awarded in engineering (-14 percent), computer science (-22 per-
cent), and mathematics (-26 percent) dropped substantially, while over
the same period the percentage of degrees awarded in physical science
and science technology rose by 9 percent.3
iThe author wishes to thank Paul Barton and Tony Carnevale of Educational Testing Ser-
vice for their contributions to this paper.
2Daniel Hecker, "Employment Outlook: 2000-10," Monthly Labor Review, November 2001,
pp. 65-66.
3National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 2000.
OCR for page 85
UNDERREPRESENTATION OF PERSONS OF COLOR
The training of future scientists and engineers who are Black or His-
panic is a matter of particular concern because these groups have his-
torically been underrepresented in these fields and because they are a
large and growing proportion of our nation's population. As Educa-
tional Testing Service (ETS) policy analyst Paul Barton has observed,
"When we look at where we are going to get more scientists and engi-
neers from our population growth, we run into the stark fact that the
minorities are the majority.... There is thus no clear demarcation be-
tween a discussion of the needs in the science and engineering arena in
general, and a discussion of the needs of increasing 'minority' represen-
tation in specific."4
In recent years, some progress has been made in raising the propor-
tion of higher-education degrees conferred to Black, Hispanic, and Na-
tive American students in particular, bachelor's degrees in science and
engineering. Nonetheless, underrepresentation continues to be a serious
problem ~ see Table 1 ). In 2001, about 3 in 10 individuals in their 20s in
the U.S. were Black non-Hispanic, Hispanic, or American Indian/Alas-
kan Native. However, only 15 percent (or fewer than 2 in 10) of the
bachelor's degree recipients in this country were members of these ra-
cial/ethnic groups, and even lower proportions of master's (8 percent,
or fewer than 1 in 10) and doctorate degree recipients (6 percent) were of
these groups.5
TABLE 1 Science and Engineering Degrees Awarded to
Underrepresented Persons of Color as a Percent of Total Degrees in
Those Fields, 1990 and 1998.
Bachelor's
Degrees
1990 1998
1990 1998
Master's Doctorate
Degrees Degrees
1990 1998
All Underrepresented Groups of Color
Black Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
American Indian/Alaskan Native
9.7 14.7
5.3 7.6
4.0 6.5
0.4 0.6
5.0 8.2
2.6 4.3
2.2
3.5
0.3 0.4
3.9
1.6
2.0
0.2
5.5
2.4
2.8
0.4
Source: Susan T. Hill, National Science Foundation, 2001; cited in Paul Barton, Meeting the
Need for Scientists, Engineers, and an Educated Citizenry in a Technological Society, ETS Policy
Information Report, May 2002
4Paul Barton, Meeting the Needfor Scientists, Engineers, and an Educated Citizenry in a Techno-
logical Society. ETS Policy Information Report, May 2002, p. 18.
5Susan T. Hill, Science and Engineering Degrees by Race/Ethnicity of Recipients: 1990-1998,
National Science Foundation, June 2001.
OCR for page 86
PAN-~CANIZAHONAL SUMMIT
PREPARATION DURING THE K-12 YEARS
K-12 education Is obviously an important factor In dete~ung whether
students pursue (and attain) science and eng~neenng degrees and subsequent
career opportunities. While progress appears to have been made over fume, stu-
dents of color In grades K-12 continue to perform less well Han over student
groups, on average, In ma~emadcs and science as well as In over subject areas.
Further, students of color are less likely to reach the highest levels of
achievement. For example, in the 2000 National Assessment of Educa-
tional Progress, only 4 percent of Hispanic twelfth graders and 3 percent
of Black twelfth graders reached the "proficient" level of mathematics
achievement, compared with 20 percent of white students and 34 percent
of Asian/Pacific Islander students.6 These performance disparities do not
suddenly appear in high school; in fact, researchers have found that ra-
cial/ethnic differences in cognitive development and performance are
evident even at the time children enter kindergarten.7
Part of the problem is that students of color are disproportionately
likely to attend "disadvantaged schools where overall academic and sup-
porting environments are less conducive to learning."8 As a result, they
continue to be substantially underrepresented in advanced high school
courses in mathematics and science, as well as in other areas of study. For
example, only about 3 to 4 percent of Black and Hispanic students take
advanced placement (AP) calculus in high school, compared with about
twice as many white students (7.5 percent) and more than three times as
many Asian/Pacific Islander students (13.4 percent) (see Table 2~.
This is a matter of particular concern because research has shown that
the intensity of a student's high school curriculum is the best predictor of
persistence to college degree; in fact, it is a better predictor than test scores,
GPA, or class rank.9
6Paul Barton, Meeting the Need, p. 16.
7Rich Coley, An Uneven Start: Indicators of Inequality in School Readiness, Policy Information
Report, Educational Testing Service, March 2002; Jerry West, Kristin Denton, and Elvira
Geronimo-Hausken, America's Kindergartners, National Center for Education Statistics,
2000, cited in Barton, p. 19.
Samuel S. Peng, DeeAnn Wright, and Susan T. Hill, Understanding Racial-Ethnic Differ-
ences in Secondary School Science and Mathematics Achievement, U.S. Department of Education,
National Center for Education Statistics, cited in Barton, p. 22.
9Clifford Adelman, Answers in the Tool Box: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and
Bachelor's Degree Attainment, U.S. Department of Education, June 1999, cited in Barton, p. 24.
OCR for page 87
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TABLE 2 Percentage of Public High School Graduates Taking Selected
Mathematics and Science Courses in High School, by Race/Ethnicity,
1998
~7
Courses Asian/
(Carnegie units) Total White Black Hispanic Pacif Isl
Mathematics
Calculus 11.0 12.1 6.6 6.2 18.4
AP Calculus 7.3 7.5 3.4 3.7 13.4
S.
clence
AP/honors biology 16.2 16.7 15.4 12.6 22.2
AP/honors chemistry 4.7 4.8 3.5 4.0 10.9
AP/honors physics 3.0 3.0 2.1 2.1 7.6
Source: Digest of Education Statistics, 2001, Ch. 2, table 142; http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2002/
digest2001 /tables/dtl42.asp
PERSISTENCE IN SCIENCE AND
ENGINEERING DEGREE PROGRAMS
The number of students of color who succeed in advanced high school
math and science curricula is disproportionately small to begin with, and
many of those who do excel in these courses in high school end up decid-
ing not to pursue science, engineering, or mathematics degrees in college.
Further, those who initially plan to do so often change their minds, opting
for other majors instead.
In fact, while 10 percent of Black undergraduate students stated that
their intended major was in the natural sciences, only 6 percent actually
received a degree in that area. Similarly, while 12 percent of Hispanic
undergraduates initially identified engineering as their intended major,
only 6 percent went on to attain an engineering degree.~°
Part of the reason for this attrition may be that students who pursue
math, science, and engineering majors in college have to endure more diffi-
cult requirements and grading standards than other students do. The college
grades of students who passed AP calculus in high school, for example, vary
tremendously by subject area about 85 percent received an A or B for their
English courses, versus about 55 percent for their mathematics courses.
i°Tony Carnevale, Educational Testing Service, personal communication.
iiTony Carnevale, analysis based on Rick Morgan and Len Ramist, Advanced Placement
Students in College: An Investigation of Course Grades at 21 Colleges, ETS Report No. SR-98-13,
February 1998.
OCR for page 88
PAN-~CANIZAHONAL SUMMIT
However, academic pressure and grading practices are not the only
explanations for the defection of students of color from advanced degree
programs in science and engineering. When students of color who drop out
of Ph.D. programs are asked why they left, their reasons tend to have less to
do with the difficulty of the work and more to do with the culture of the
institution or program; 13 percent cited personal reasons for leaving.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Start early, start fairly. Expanded (and improved) early childhood
development and education programs can help to even the academic play-
ing field for underrepresented students of color. By preparing all children
for school success from the earliest years of their lives, we can help to
reduce inequalities in achievement in the K-12 period as well as expand
the supply of high school graduates who are prepared to pursue higher
education and ultimately, careers in science and engineering.
Strengthen K-12 math and science education. Strengthening the
teaching of math and science in grades K-12 will be necessary to increase
the number of students who reach the highest levels of achievement and
to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in performance that currently exist.
Improving K-12 science and math education will not only mean increas-
ing the number of teachers, it will also mean changing how teachers are
prepared for science and math teaching, as well as making the teaching
profession more attractive by improving the working environment.~3
High schools must ensure that they offer rigorous math and science
courses and that they encourage and support students of color to take
them. As research has shown, the intensity of the high school curriculum
is an important predictor of whether a student of color succeeds in a col-
lege science or engineering degree program. Success and persistence in
higher education depend on a strong foundation in high school math and
science.
Some have recommended the creation of a pre-engineering course of
study from middle school through high school. Such a program would
include a comprehensive high school curriculum offering college-level
certification and course credits, a middle school technology curriculum,
extensive training for teachers and school counselors, and access to af-
fordable equipment.~4
i2Adapted from Barbara Lovitts, Leaving the Ivory Tower, 2001.
i3Before It's Too Late: A Report to the Nation from the National Commission on Mathematics and
Science Teaching for the 21st Century, September 2000.
i4For example, the High Schools That Work project, cited in Barton, p. 20.
OCR for page 89
OF - 1 TO ~ rTiTf - ~ T ~ T ~~ flex r.~ IT TTf - To
C~^ ~ twined ~ C~ ~ I1~4 ~^~I~
The need for counseling deserves special comment. Even those stu-
dents who achieve well enough in high school to be qualified to enter a
college degree program in science, math, or engineering require counsel-
ing and support to ensure that they do go to college and succeed there.
This is particularly true for students from underresourced backgrounds,
students of color among them because many of these young people lack
the kind of support at home and from relatives that is more readily avail-
able to students from advantaged families. Beyond increasing the avail-
ability of school guidance services and improving the ratio of counselors
to students, there is a need for involvement and support from volunteers
and staff from concerned corporations.
Promote persistence in undergraduate degree programs. Many stu-
dents who enter college, including but not limited to those from ethnic
groups that are underrepresented in college, fail to stay and complete the
degree. Given the projected future shortage of scientists and engineers, it
will be extremely important to take steps to ensure that all students, and
high-ability students of color in particular, persist to graduation.
Although research has shown that ethnicity per se is a poor predictor
of persistence (in fact, the persistence rate among high-ability students of
color is particularly high), there is still room for improvement. Exploring
why some students persist and others do not helps to uncover areas in
need of intervention.
An ETS study has shown that one important characteristic of
"persisters" is that they find the study of math, science, or engineering at
the college level to be enjoyable, interesting, and rewarding, and they have
a personal commitment to these fields as a career. Further, students are
more likely to persist if they have been involved in recruitment or enrich-
ment programs for students of color; and if a scientist or engineer through
a summer job or part-time work has influenced them.~5
These findings indicate the need for programs that give promising
students of color opportunities for summer work in science and engineer-
ing, as well as programs that focus on improving the climate of under-
graduate schools for persons of color.
Train more scientists for industry. As the baby boomers retire over
the next 20 years, the United States will face a substantial shortage of
workers who are trained in science, engineering, and mathematics, espe-
cially for technical or R&D occupations in private industry. Higher-edu-
cation degree programs in science, engineering, and mathematics must
respond to this demand. At present, colleges and universities are produc-
ing an oversupply of science, engineering, and mathematician research
assistants and Ph.D.'s with limited academic job prospects. The real need
is for individuals who are professionally trained in science, engineering,
OCR for page 90
PAN-~CANIZAHONAL SUMMIT
and mathematics and equipped to work in technical industries and occu-
pations outside of academia.
CONCLUSIONS
As the research summarized here shows, our nation's failure to draw
scientists and engineers from its entire population to increase the repre-
sentation of persons of color is a significant and growing problem, given
demographic trends and the rising demand for scientists and engineers.
Fortunately, there is no shortage of information about ways to address
this problem. The challenge is to use the available research wisely to de-
sign programs and interventions that will eradicate racial/ethnic dispari-
ties in academic performance and greatly expand educational and em-
ployment opportunities for persons of color.
Clearly, it is not enough to focus efforts at the graduate education
level and ignore what comes before (or after). To achieve the goals high-
lighted here, it will be necessary to take a comprehensive approach, start-
ing at the earliest years of schooling and continuing through the entire
educational and employment spectrum.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
educational testing
