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DPanic Social Nel`-:
cling anil Anal
WORKSHOP SUMMARY AND PAPERS
Ronald Breiger, Kathleen Car~ey, and Phi~ippa Pattison
O- Ink
in
Committee on Human Factors
Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and
the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences
and with regard for appropriate balance.
This work relates to Department of Navy grant N00014-02-1-0997 issued by the Office of Naval Research to the National
Academy of Sciences. The United States Government has a royalty-free license throughout the world in all copyrightable
material contained in the publications. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material
are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-08952-2 (Book)
International Standard Book Number 0-309-51916-0 (PDF)
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 2003107509
Additional copies of this report are available from National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washing-
ton, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2003~. Dynamic Social Network Modeling and Analysis: Workshop
Summary and Papers, Ronald Breiger, Kathleen Carley, and Philippa Pattison. Committee on Human Factors. Board on
Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:
The National Academies Press.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Stienre, Engineering, aniMeditine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general
welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to
advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy
of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members,
sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy
of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and
recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute
acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the
federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V.
Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad commu-
nity of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government.
Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Acad-
emies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the
National Research Council.
www. nationa l-academies.org
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PLANNING SUBCOMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON DYNAMIC SOCIAL NETWORK
MODELING AND ANALYSIS
DANIEL R. ILGEN (Chair), Department of Psychology and Department of Management, Michigan State
University, East Lansing
JOHN M. CARROLL, Center for Human-Computer Interaction, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
University, Blacksburg
MARTHA GRABOWSKI, Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic
Institute; and Information Systems Programs, LeMoyne College
ANNE S. MAYOR, Senior Staff Officer
SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Research Associate
v
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COMMITTEE ON HUMAN FACTORS
RAJA PARASURAMAN (Chair), Department of Psychology, Catholic University
JOHN M. CARROLL, Center for Human-Computer Interaction, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
University, Blacksburg
ROBYN DAWES, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University
COLIN G. DRURY, Department of Industrial Engineering, State University of New York, Buffalo
DONALD FISHER, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Massachusetts,
Amherst
MARTHA GRABOWSKI, Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic
Institute; and Information Systems Programs, LeMoyne College
PETER A. HANCOCK, Department of Psychology, University of Central Florida, Orlando
DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology and Department of Management, Michigan State University,
East Lansing
RICHARD J. JAGACINSKI, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus
BONNIE E. JOHN, Human-Computer Interaction Institute, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon
University
KURT KRAIGER, Department of Psychology, University of Tulsa, Oklahoma
WILLIAM S. MARRAS, Institute for Ergonomics and Department of Industrial, Welding, and Systems
Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus
RICHARD W. PEW, BEN Technologies, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT G. RADWIN, Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison
KARLENE ROBERTS, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
KIM J. VICENTE, Cognitive Engineering Laboratory and Department of Mechanical and Industrial
Engineering, University of Toronto
GREG L. ZACHARIAS, Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ANNE S. MAYOR, Director
SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Research Associate
Al
i
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Preface
The Committee on Human Factors was established in 1980 by the Commission on Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education. Over the years, the committee has pursued a wide range of topics dealing with theoretical
and methodological issues and with the application of principles of human behavior and performance to the design
of systems. Recent interests have included modeling individual and organizational behavior, networks and remote
collaboration, and contributions of the behavioral and organizational sciences to ensuring national security.
Within this context, the Committee on Human Factors was asked by the Office of Naval Research to hold a
workshop on social network modeling and analysis and to examine the potential of research in this area for
application to national security issues. In response, a subgroup of the committee was appointed by the National
Research Council to plan and organize the workshop. Key participants were identified and asked to write papers
and make presentations. Many of the papers focused on current developments in the science of social network
modeling and several discussed various applications, including national security. Part I of this document is a
summary of the major themes and the research issues and prospects that emerged from the presentations and
discussions. Part II contains the papers as submitted.
I would like to thank Rebecca Goolsby from the Office of Naval Research for supporting this effort and for her
interest, insights, and helpful suggestions. I would also like to extend our appreciation to National Research
Council staff Anne Mavor and Susan McCutchen for their assistance in planning and organizing the workshop.
Part I, the workshop summary, has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of
the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments
that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets
institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft
manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their
review of Part I of this report: Karl Chopra, Aptima, Inc., Washington, DC; Patrick Doreian, Department of
Sociology, University of Pittsburgh; and Charles M. Macal, Center for Complex Adaptive Systems Simulation,
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not
asked to endorse the content of the document nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The
review of this report was overseen by Paul Holland, Statistical Theory and Practice, Educational Testing Service,
Princeton, NJ. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an
independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all
review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with
the authors and the institution.
Daniel Ilgen, Chair
Planning Subcommittee
. .
via
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Contents
PART I: WORKSHOP SUMMARY
Introduction, 3
Workshop Sessions and Themes, 3
Research Issues and Prospects, 11
Opening Address
PART II: WORKSHOP PAPERS
Emergent Themes in Social Network Analysis: Results, Challenges, Opportunities 19
Ronald L. Breiger
Session I: Social Network Theory Perspectives
Finding Social Groups: A Meta-Analysis of the Southern Women Data
Linton C. Freeman
Autonomy vs. Equivalence Within Market Network Structure?
Harrison C. White
Social Influence Network Theory: Toward a Science of Strategic Modification of Interpersonal
Influence Systems
Noah E. Friedkin
Information and Innovation in a Networked World
David Lazer
Six
15
39
78
89
101
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x
Session II: Dynamic Social Networks
Informal Social Roles and the Evolution and Stability of Social Networks
Jeffrey C. Johnson, Lawrence A. Palinkas, and James S. Boster
Dynamic Network Analysis
Kathleen M. Carley
Accounting for Degree Distributions in Empirical Analysis of Network Dynamics
Tom A.B. Snijders
Polarization in Dynamic Networks: A Hopfield Model of Emergent Structure
Michael W. Macy, James A. Kitts, Andreas Flache, and Steve Benard
Local Rules and Global Properties: Modeling the Emergence of Network Structure
Martina Morris
Social Networks: From Sexual Networks to Threatened Networks.
H. Eugene Stanley and Shlomo Havlin
Session III: Metrics and Models
Sensitivity Analysis of Social Network Data and Methods: Some Preliminary Results
Stanley Wasserman and Douglas Steinley
Spectral Methods for Analyzing and Visualizing Networks: An Introduction
Andrew J. Seary and William D. Richards
Statistical Models for Social Networks: Inference and Degeneracy
Mark S. Handcock
The Key Player Problem
Stephen P. Borgatti
Balancing Efficiency and Vulnerability in Social Networks
Elisa Jayne Bienenstock and Phillip Bonacich
Data Mining on Large Graphs
Christopher R. Palmer, Phillip B. Gibbons, and Christos Faloutsos
Session IV: Networked Worlds
Data Mining in Social Networks
David Jensen and Jennifer Neville
Random Effects Models for Network Data
Peter D. Hoff
Predictability of Large-Scale Spatially Embedded Networks
Carter T. Butts
CONTENTS
121
133
146
162
174
187
197
209
229
241
253
265
289
303
313
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CONTENTS
Using Multi-Theoretical Multi-Level (MTML) Models to Study Adversarial Networks
Noshir S. Contractor and Peter R. Monge
Identifying International Networks: Latent Spaces and Imputation
Michael D. Ward, Peter D. Hold, and Corey Lowell Lofdahl
Summary: Themes, Issues, and Applications
Linking Capabilities to Needs
Kathleen M. Carley
A Workshop Agenda
B Biographical Sketches
x
324
345
363
APPENDIXES
373
376
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