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THE NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM AT TWENTY-FIVE YEARS: ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND C HALLE N GE S As ST RA CT The purpose of the 7th Disasters Roundtable workshop, held on February 20, 2003, was to review the accomplishments and challenges of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) on its 25th anniversary. Many program accomplishments were noted, including advances in earthquake monitoring and mapping, in research resulting in the design and construction of seismic-resistant buildings and lifelines in risk-prone areas, and in research enabling the development of more effective emergency response and recovery systems. These and other achievements were made possible in part because NEHRP furthered the integration of earthquake science and earthquake engineering and worked with stakeholders throughout the nation. Despite such accomplishments, it was also noted that many challenges still lie ahead. Challenges discussed included the need to bridge the gap between research and applications, to overcome decreased funding levels, and to continue to attract support in an era in which homeland security has become a dominant concern for decision makers and others. Because of the time constraints imposed by a one-day meeting, some accomplishments and challenges were considered at length, while others could only be briefly mentioned in preparation for further discussion at other venues. INT RO D UCTIO N The Disasters Roundtable~ (DR) held its seventh public workshop on February 20, 2003 at the National Academy of Sciences building in Washington, D.C. At this one-day workshop, accomplishments of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) over the last 25 years were reviewed and the present and future challenges of the program were discussed. The 1977 Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (Pub. L. 95-124) was created to reduce risks of life and property from future earthquakes in the United States through the establishment and maintenance of an effective earthquake hazards reduction program. A series of devastating earthquakes, including the 1964 earthquake in lyric Willis Sum Algal and the 1971 Still l4ernantlr' C~lifx~ia earthauake resulted in ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 'l'hc National Research Council defines a "roundtable" as a type of convening activity of the National Academies that provides a means for representatives of government, industry, and academia to gather periodically for the identification and discussion of issues of mutual concern. In contrast to National Research Council study committees and other committees of the National Academies, roundtables are intended solely to enable dialogue and discussion among leek leaders and representatives on a particular issue. They provide a valuable forum for exchanging information and for the presentation of individual views. IIowever, because roundtablcs are not subject to institutional rcquireme~nts concerning conflicts of interest, composition, and balance that apply to NRC committees, roundtables are prohibited by the National Academies from providing any advice or recommendation. 'this paper presents the rapporteur's summary of the forum discussions and does not necessarily reflect the views of the roundtablc members or other participants. . . .
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loss of life and cost millions in property damage. At this time there was also growing excitement and optimism among scientists about the feasibility of short-term earthquake prediction (NRC, 1976~. In 1976 the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy AS lilts formed the Newmark-Stever2 Committee, which was tasked to formulate a program to study and respond to seismic hazards in Southern California and later expanded to include issues on the nationwide earthquake threat. Among the committee's recommendations was the establishment of a national program that, underpinned by research, would lead to the reduction of earthquake risks to life and property. Originally, the law authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (l':i( ~~) and the National Science Foundation (ASIA) to participate in NEHRP. In the 1980 .1 · . - .1 ~ 1 1 ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ /~-t ~ .! ~ \ 1 · 1 reautnor~zanon, the recrera~ emergency management Agency <~ ., wn~cn was formed in 1979, was designated as the lead agency (Public Law 96-472, October 19, 1980) to coordinate activities of the program. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NISI) was also designated as a participating agency. All four agencies (USGS, FEMA, NIST, and NSF) currently make up NEHRP. The program is charged with furthering research on earthquake science, earthquake engineering and social science research related to earthquakes, and implementation efforts related to improving building and infrastructure performance during earthquakes and more effective emergency response, recovery and reconstruction. NEHRP remains the federal government's primary effort to reduce earthquake risks and has been reauthorized by Congress eight times since 1977.4 NEHRP is up for reauthorization again in 2003. The DR steering committee selected an interdisciplinary group of speakers and panelists (See for flee a,~,e~cla ~ t~~-~r s~-~e.~e~s bios) for this one-day workshop to discuss the accomplishments of the program in the past quarter of a century and address the issues and challenges NEHRP faces in the light of reauthorization, budget constraints, changing priorities of government, advances in science and technology, and the changing social landscape. Approximately 100 people participated in the workshop (See .\t3~3er~clix 13 fair ~ list ot ~e~-,istra~rx>. O., O c' 1 \ 1 1 PERSPECTIVES OF NEHRP AGENCIES This sermon ureas a moderated doctor featuring high lerelpoligy makers in the NEHRP agencies focusing on both issues as how the program fits into their agencies ' missions, program accomplishments in the past 25years, andf~t~re challenges. Peter Freeman, Assistant Director of the Computer Information Sciences and Engineering Directorate (CISE), National Science Foundation CASES, explained NSF's role in NEHRP as one of investing in people, ideas, and technologies. As part of its contribution to NEHRP, NSF supports earthquake research at the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research at the State University of New York at Buffalo, the Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center at the University of California at Berkeley, and the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California. Other important earthquake related investments by NSF include A, which is a network of geophysical instruments and observatories, and the George E. Brown, in Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation ~) program, a nationwide distributed system of laboratories for collaborative experimental earthquake engineering research that is scheduled for full operation in 2004. 2 Nathan Newmarl<, a \vorld recognized leader in carthqual~e engineering research from the University of Illinois, and Guyford Stevcr, President Gerald l~ord's science adviser (1974-1977), and head of the National Science l oundation oversaw the preparation of the resulting rapport (US(,S, 199G). 3 J'l~MA has been organized undoer the new Department of l-Ic~mcland Security. I l-,MA interacts with the new science and technology directorate within the [Department of l-Ic~mcland Security. ~ Se`e Appendix; A off O'l'A, 1995 for discussion of change`s in the program. Also talc NS'I'C, 199G for a brief summary of principal accomplishments of Nl 'HRP. 2
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Freeman emphasized that the biggest challenge of earthquake science and engineering at NSF is the effective integration of earthquake relevant research and tools across its directorates: engineering, natural and physical sciences, social and behavioral science, and computer information science and engineering. Part of the annual budget of CISE is dedicated to researching information technology models related to extreme events. As part of its NEHRP activity, NSF funds post-earthquake investigations. This has provided needed experience for responding to willful disasters the nation now faces. Immediately after the September 11 terrorist attacks, NSF directorates issued more than a dozen awards for projects to examine various aspects of the disaster. Subsequently, additional awards were made and of the current total of 137 awards, 16 were for studies on critical infrastructures funded by CISE. Freeman explained that there is a need for greater integration of research on earthquakes and that improved data collection on the subject will not have maximum impact unless advanced computing technology and computational software are applied to manage and process these data. Further, there is a need for improved computing and communication capabilities to prepare for extreme events and for crisis management. Arden L. Bement, Jr., Director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) outlined ongoing NEHRP activities at NIST, such as that related to seismic design and construction standards, earthquake resistant construction, interagency committee coordination, and code evaluation activities. NIST is involved in both basic research and applied engineering. After a disaster, NIST's role is to determine which construction designs were successful and which construction designs failed. NIST works closely with its private sector industrial partners and stakeholders to help fill the technology transfer gap and to develop new technologies such as hybrid pre-cast concrete structural designs, which is being done in collaboration with both private industry and academia. Currently, there are about 120 projects at NIST that involve wide-ranging issues, including homeland security. Much of NIST's research experience is being directly applied to the investigation of the World Trade Center building performance following the September 11, 2001 attack. For example, among other things, the agency is providing information about bomb effects, which can shed light on the impacts of the loads on the building induced by the terrorist attack, and helping to review designs to rebuild at the World Trade Center site. NIST not only carries out research to improve and modernize building and fire codes but also dispatches held teams to disaster sites involving Ore, earthquakes and other types of disaster agents. Charles G. Groat, Director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), reported that 5% (amount in 2002 dollars) of the USGS budget is dedicated to earthquake research. The mission of USGS is to advance earth science and to help minimize the effects of disaster, thus this mission supports the goals of NEHRP. Great leaps in technology have helped in the deployment of better seismographic detectors and in the development of better "I" (maps of shaking intensity from earthquakes) each of which helps improve disaster response. New scientific advances have greatly improved the ability of experts to measure and map earthquakes, process digital data and provide almost real-time analysis. For example, the NSF- funded l .~rt}~Scope program coupled with the USGS's Laced Nation Seismic S:~ste~n (ANSS) program 1 ~ 1 . ~ ~ 1 ~ is expected to make significant contributions to NEHRP. It is important to distinguish the two programs from each other. While the USGS-funded ANSS is being built as a nationwide network of at least 7,000 shaking measurement systems that will make it possible to provide real-time earthquake information and building and site responses, the NSF-funded EarthScope Program is a network that will attempt to apply modern observational, analytical and telecommunications technologies to investigate the structure and evolution of the North American continent and the physical processes controlling earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Both programs are models for federal-state-university collaboration.5 Groat pointed to a number of other accomplishments under NEHRP, including advances in hazard assessment and in -5 leer discussions Off ANSS and l-,arthScope see boxes 6-1 and G-2 of N1(C, 2002. 3
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(the geologic study of the past behavior of acitve faults), the latter having extended the history of seismic events back thousands of years. Among the challenges facing NEHRP he noted were the need to operate in an environment in which homeland security is a dominant issue and the need to work extra hard to show the continuing significance of earthquake research and ~itgai~on efforts. The upcoming NEHRP reauthorization hearing may provide an opportunity for showcasing the continuing importance of earthquake research and mtiigaiton efforts. Giving necessary attention to earthquake prediciton, which had cooled off for at least the last dozen years or so, was seen as another challenge facing NEHRP. Groat also emphasized the need for the USGS to have closer ites with social scieni~sts, particularly economists, with the private sector, and with the disaster management community. (For an expanded summary of earth science accomplishments in hazard mapping see, Frankel et al., 2000 and Leyendecker et al., 2000~. , , ~ Anthony S. Lowe, Administrator, Federal Insurance and Mii~gaiton Administration, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), pointed to a number of accomplishments of NEHRP during the past 25 years, including advanced knowledge on how faults behave, the development of seismic building standards and guidelines, and advances In the research infrastructure as exemplified by the earthquake research centers and the development of the Network for Earthquake Engineering Sin~ulai~on program. He indicated that because of its successes, NEHRP is relevant to countering the threat of terrorism as well as earthquakes, and therefore the program should operate in an all hazards environment. Lowe sees a number of challenges facing NEHRP in the years ahead. He suggested that the program should become more performance based, with increasing attention given to ~mplementaiton as well as research. Another challenge he sees is the need for NEHRP to give more attention to research coordination, and a group will soon be formed to consider this issue. Lowe sees funding as one of the most significant challenges facing NEHRP. He emphasized that there is a need for a separate budget for NEHRP aci~viiies In all of the four paritcipai~ng agencies. Lowe stressed that agencies should set forth a budget system that Ices all dollars to missions and goals to address concerns regarding coordination, strategic planning, and other issues expressed by Congress. Despite the many accomplishments of the program, For the last 25-years NEHRP's funding has generally been flat (which is a 1/3 loss in value due to inflai~on). Thus the NEHRP budget has declined in constant dollars (see Figure 1) (NRC, 20025. If this budget pattern continues, NEHRP work will have to be more effective and efficient in order to produce worthwhile results. Lowe believes that NEHRP may provide a sound organizing principle for other programs in a similar budget predicament. NEHRP Funding 1978-2002 c c ~ ~ co ,, — rL ·— I — z Year ~ N N Annual NEHRP Funding 978 Dollars ~ Biannual NEHRP Funding Annuai NEHRP Funding (1978 Doliars) FIGURE 1 NEHRP Funding 1978-2002. (Presented by Craig Wingo, FENIA) 4
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PUTTING NEHRP TO USE This Decor Revolved d'~-G~srion or the accomplishments and challenges of~zmplement`ng NEHRP from the perspective of private sector and gorerr~mer~t Take holder-. Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., General Manager of the Emergency Preparedness Department of the City of Los Angeles, discussing his department's goal of making Los Angeles more disaster resistant, underscored the importance of partnerships with local communities to help communities better understand their role in earthquake preparedness. Assisting communities to have a better understanding of their earthquake risks and formulate options for mitigation is one of NEHRP's most promising implementation activities (OTA, 1995~. The Federal Emergency Management Agency works with community redevelopment efforts in Los Angeles to build a model for earthquake preparedness and mitigation. The initiatives of FEMA and California's Citizens Corps have also advanced this cause, along with local chapters of the American Red Cross and the Allstate Insurance Company. Aside from NEHRP, the city also collaborates with private institutions on earthquake related safety. The Institute for Business and Home Safety, a major private insurance company supported organization, has also helped promote non-structural earthquake hazard mitigation in Los Angeles. . An Important part of the Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Department's program Is to examine building codes, restrict unsafe building activity, and identify high-risk structures- based on NEHRP Handbook for the Seismic Evaluation of Existing Buildings. They use support tools such as HAZUS for computer simulation of earthquake damage, ETEAM simulation maps, and GIS decision analysis. The department's Community Emergency Response Teams train people at the local level, by supporting hrst responders, aiding disaster victims, and engaging in non-emergency project work. The department also uses incident management approaches and corporate information sharing (e.g., traffic and weather) to improve emergency preparedness. Lloyd S. Cluff, Director of the Geosciences Department, Pacific Gas and Electric (PO&EN reviewed earthquake related achievements since NEHRP's creation \ , ~ in the areas of paleoseismic investigations, earthquake forecasting and ShakeMaps, national hazard maps, characterizing surface fault rupture effects and near ground motions, and regional hazard assessments. He noted that one accomplishment of NEHRP is its lifeline (i.e., those essential utility and transportation systems that serve communities across all jurisdictions and locales) research efforts (American Lifelines Alliance, 2003~. For example, using the results of NEHRP research, the t+~(~S fling, (~-~:-~ on ( alifornia l~arthquake I'~>I',~:iti~ies is able to move away from short-term predictions and to make regional earthquake probability forecasts (see Figure 29. Figure 2 shows a 70 percent probability of earthquake occurrence in the San Francisco Bay region and more intensely in the areas of Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults, which is part of PG&E service area. Cluff emphasized that PG&E recognizes the importance of public-private partnerships in providing seismic safety. PO&E, under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) on earthquake hazards with USGS, has integrated its strong motion instruments with USGS' ANSS. PG&E also participates in the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center's Lifelines User-Driven Research Programed and the FEMA-sponsored American Lifelines Alliance7. Along with other corporations, PG&E has provided funding support for earthquake disaster reduction efforts to help offset the NEHRP budget erosion caused by inflation. 7 Other members include USGS, NIS 14, the US Bureau of Reclamation, Federal I Iighway Administration, waste\\7ater organizations, telecommunication organizations, and the Michael Balker Corporation.
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Chris Poland, chairman and president of Degenkolb Engineers, traced the development and contributions of NEHRP efforts that are relevant to structural engineering related to both new and existing buildings. An example of the NEHRP sponsored process for the development of codes and guidance for structural engineering related to existing buildings can be mapped from American Technology Council (ATC) 14, "Evaluating the Seismic Resistance of Existing Buildings" to FEMA 178, "NEHRP Handbook for the Seismic Evaluation of Existing Buildings", to the third generation of evaluation technology in FEMA 310, "Handbook for the Seismic Evaluation of Buildings: A Prestandard". This process is used for most codes that are now being developed and has now accelerated the transfer of new knowledge into the practice. In discussing past NEHRP accomplishments, Poland noted that advanced analysis procedures for buildings have been developed. But much more work is needed, for example to stop strengthening buildings that do not need strengthening and focus on those that do need it. He also pointed to new structural systems have been developed and applied through NEHRP, leading to a reduction in the "brute strength method". Poland emphasized that there is a need to take a more holistic approach to seismic safety as "a matter of public welfare, which involves the potential for loss of life or injury, disruption of lifeline systems, and costs to insurers, property owners, and governments for earthquake losses and recovery" (EERI, 2003~. In this regard, the NEHRP should also find ways to bridge the gap between the public and design professionals by understanding better the public decision making process and the role it plays in designing building that can repel damages. Poland suggested that it is now time to pick up the pace of activities because the vulnerability of the nation is growing. This will require practicing engineers working more closely with engineering researchers funded through NEHRP. ~ ,~ ~~ I: :X, ~ ~!i ~ )~ '. " ' ' ~ ~ ~ ~= ~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~ ':: -- -- N~ ~~ ~~f-~sr~inc==r~:; ~':5''~$'~ ~ ' '; . ..--. ~~ 0t ~~e~n~ ~ ~—n taught ~ ~ hi; ~~--~.~.~ ii~'~x'~-~'r~ :::: :::::: :~: ~ :: : :~: :: ~ ~ :::: :::: :: :: ,~.,,.,.i,,,,,,,,i.',,'.,,.,:~; : ~~:~ ~ '::: ~~ .. .~ i- E,F~nd~ll~ urban Amp-; : I: ~ ~ : ~:~-~ . :: ~ :: .~ ~~ - ~0 ::~ :~: : :~ B.7 or greaser q~eX`-~ - before 2030 on the ~~:~ ~~. Mated fault :~::~ A: :~ : A, Ads for faults that ,` i: ... f At prev,~u~y CHILI fly pr3=bili~y Patties ~~; , ~ . :. ~ In: a, . S ~ /.~3 . . I qua;,`;e o~ - vie ~10~ fits sit segmer~:5 ~ ~ ~~ I ~~1t prob3blssi<~ie~ 4~ ~? ~~nce~ain by in t~o 10~ ;_,] FIGURE 2 San Francisco Bay Region earthquake probability. Source: USGS Working Group on California Earthquake Prediction, 1 999. Clifford Roblee, Chief of Applied Geotechnical and Ground Motion Research at the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), discussed some of the challenges facing NEHRP from the standpoint of transportation users of the information and technology generated by the program. Several NEHRP innovations have been diffused to and adopted by the transportation user community, but much remains to be done. The NEHRP program is generally appreciated for the quality of its researchers, facilities, and educational and training programs, but needs to improve the transparency of the overlapping agency roles and overcome the relatively insular nature of the earthquake research community. Roblee noted that the earthquake research community is a vibrant research network with a high level of scientific innovation and discovery. However, he also indicated that the applied engineering research community has generally not kept pace with the science; thus bridging the gap between researchers and practitioners is a major challenge for NEHRP. The NEHRP research community must shift from a 'science based' discovery-centered orientation toward a greater emphasis on 'applied-engineering based' research and implementation in order to rapidly improve mitigation. Applied research should focus on issues such as systematically gathering basic data used in existing models, verification and calibration of existing engineering models, consensus building and test applications. Roblee also identified the need to get end-users much more involved in NEHRP strategic planning and programmatic decisions to assure applicability to practice. He suggests identifying a 6
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percentage of research funding to be prioritized exclusively by end users rather than by researchers. He pointed to the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center's Lifelines Program as a good example of how both researchers and users can be brought together to advance seismic safety. PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE FRONTIERS IN RESEARCH DISGH]JiO~ I~ this eon focused on NENFRI~ accomplishments arid challenges from the perspective of the science, engineering and social science research communities. Thomas Jordan, W. M. Neck Professor of Geological Sciences and director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, noted that one of NEHRP's major achievements has been promoting the integration of earthquake science and earthquake engineering, resulting in a more coordinated system level science. He expressed hope that the transformation of the field into a system-level science will help close the implementation gap that exists in earthquake research and engineering practice. He maintained that researchers must look globally at earthquakes in order to better understand U.S. earthquakes. A better understanding is needed to determine how the earth is deforming to cause seismic events. Before and after studies of earthquake deformation may now be easier to conduct given advances in Satellite Assisted Research (SAR) imaging. Given the immense potential of these technologies, Jordan suggested that researchers may be closer to better prediction of strong ground motions. People need to appreciate that "risk" equals hazard multiplied by exposure multiplied by fragility. Therefore, accurate intensity maps are necessary along with deployment of more and better seismometers. Jordan noted that in the United States, only 129 people have perished in earthquakes since 1980. However, earthquake fatalities worldwide over the same period exceed 200,000. Collecting and saving perishable earthquake data are necessary to better understanding the history of earthquake occurrences. Jordan noted that economic losses from earthquakes are rising rapidly, and this in part stems from immense growth in buildings and infrastructure. Jordan reviewed some of what the science has yet to know about earthquakes. There is no physical theory to explain why earthquakes start and stop. There is lack of understanding of near-fault rupture and there is little known about the interaction between faults. However, advances in earthquake science have driven earthquake motion data collection and dissemination to near "real-time." While there are uncertainties about when large earthquakes will occur, the science has a good understanding of where earthquakes are likely to happen. Earthquake prediction has not yet reached a statistically reliable level, though researchers have made significant progress in explaining more about how faults work, in a direction where prediction is approaching statistically reliable levels on decadal terms or shorter. Jordan stressed the importance of education and outreach. Researchers in seismology, geodesy, geology, geotechnical engineering, and rock mechanics need to promote integrated, multi-disciplinary studies of the earthquake phenomenon similar to "distributed collaboratories" used by climate science researchers. Jordan noted that substantially more investment in earthquake research is required and that the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) should be one of the nation's highest science priorities. Thomas D. O'Rourke, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University and president of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute discussed accomplishments and challenges in earthquake engineering research. He indicated that nationwide research programs of the type supported by NEHRP have helped the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) issue guidelines on new building and structures: FEMA 36,8/36'3, which set forth model seismic regulations for new buildings and FEMA 35G/3~7, which focus on seismic retrofitting of existing buildings. O'Rourke pointed to HAZUS, the 7
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national loss estimation methodology, as another major accomplishment of NEHRP. He also mentioned progress in the A, work on lifeline systems, underground construction technology advances, and geographic information technologies. However, he said more work is needed in spite of the progress that has been made over the years. This is reflected in the fact that estimated losses in the 1994 Northridge earthquake exceed $20 billion. (I
activity will be integrated into the new Department of Homeland Security (DHS). He recommends that researchers identify NEHRP work that contributes to specific DHS goals. There are great opportunities that NEHRP interests will kind new partners within the OHS community. As a future direction, Wingo proposed the formation of a new NEHRP subcommittee that would coordinate research activities across the four participating agencies. The chairpersonship would rotate among the agencies. One of the roles of the subcommittee would be to develop a more coordinated research agenda to maximize the existing and emerging resources of NIST, NSF, USGS and FEMA, such as NEES and ANSS. Wingo commented on the need to develop metrics to better measure program progress. He also noted that one of the major challenges facing NEHRP is developing effective incentives that motivate stakeholders to engage in sound seismic mitigation. Wingo stressed that FEMA was committed to leading the completion of the NEHRP strategic plan. Such planning is critical since NEHRP budget for its activities has not kept up with inflation. Such planning should give increased attention to the need for interagency coordination and furthering and expediting the flow of research results into practice. ~ O [ohn Filson directs the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Program. He pointed to several advances under NEHRP, including improved hazard monitoring and the development of paleoseismology. NEHRP is very important to USGS's work and as such the agency has a budget line item for NEHRP activities. In terms of future directions, Filson pointed out that more NEHRP research is needed in Alaska and the northeast; and that increased attention should be given to laying the scientific groundwork for earthquake prediction, which will require some initial strategic thinking. He also indicated that funding for ANSS was a major priority for USGS. In relation to this, the National Research Council has ~ O ~ been asked to conduct a study on the benefits and costs of this system (ANSS). Filson noted that NEHRP faces management and other major challenges. He said NEHRP requires strong leadership with a stronger program oversight from Congress. Congressional authorization and appropriation committee staffs must collaborate in addressing NEHRP. He also called for the creation of national and regional NEHRP platforms, venues, or opportunities that would allow stakeholders to get together to discuss their needs. Priscilla Nelson, senior advisor in the Directorate for Engineering at NSF, saw a number of major challenges facing NEHRP. These include providing adequate funding for research to be carried out through NEES he and wow ~c ~ ~) implementing the ~2~ understanding , , the human dynamics of earthquake hazard reduction, and furthering performance-based engineering. Nelson said that one of the highest priorities for the program should be to develop an integrated cross-agency program that enables the earthquake community to make progress in research leading to hazards reduction, and that effectively implements the NEHRP strategic plan. NEHRP agencies also need to develop a strategy for making the case to the Office of Management and Budget that the program deserves strong support. Nelson pointed out other priority needs including increased multi-hazard activities (especially involving the social sciences), a greater incorporation of information technology into research and related activities, more international cooperation, and increased attention to earthquake hazard reduction workforce needs. Shyam Sunder, chief of the Materials and Construction Research Division in NIST's Building and Fire Research Laboratory, noted that when NEHRP was created federal construction activities became part of the program's concern. Thus, NEHRP's Interagency Committee for Seismic Safety in Construction (ICSSC) was formed in 1978, which NIST has chaired since 1982. A major success for NEHRP has been the development of provisions for seismic safety for existing and new buildings, an effort in which NIST had a key role. Sunder noted that NIST was recently given new authority to investigate building failures, which is similar to responsibilities the National Transportation Safety Board has for investigating major transportation 9
accidents. In this capacity, NIST operates as a neutral third party. NIST is researching the problem of progressive building collapse with the aim to promote retrofitting to prevent failures caused by multiple agents. Sunder noted that one of the major challenges facing NEHRP is the promotion of improved lifeline seismic codes. He indicated that a private sector partnership is working to develop such codes with FEMA funding and the ICSSC is working to do the same for federal lifelines. Comparing damages from different disasters, he pointed out that while the United States annualized losses for wind damage is about $8 billion, and about $12 billion for fire damage, earthquake damages are about $4 billion, but a single earthquake event can exceed $100 billion in damages. REFLECTIONS ON NEHRP Th~sfir~al seizors Molted reflections or the program by a senior Take/older. Robert A. Olson, president of Robert Olson Associates, reviewed the legislative history of NEHRP. He took special note of the role of NEHRP's congressional champions, A, (~o~p,ress~nan C,e(~4,e 1 . 1317~:~) and (~O114,FeSS11]aI] (~1eS if. FL`~'sher who formed an advocacy coalition , , that built political support for the program. Olson asserted that the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake was a watershed event that helped propel national earthquake research. This interest was later reinforced by the losses caused by the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. Reflecting on his own knowledge and drawing on comments made earlier during the workshop, Olson made several observations about NEHRP: · In terms of real dollars, NEHRP's purchasing power has declined steadily to the level where essential program activities are being sacrificed because appropriations have not kept pace at least with inflation. Additionally, the community has identified other important needs that will further risk reduction if funding is provided. · FEMA was assigned the leadership role in NEHRP in 1980. How the leadership role will be carried out now that FEMA is a part of the Department of Homeland Security is a concern for many in the earthquake community. · In addition to the four NEHRP agencies, many federal agencies, such as Department of Defense, Department of Veterans Affairs, and General Services Administration, are directly involved in construction, which in many areas deals with earthquake risks. While NEHRP acknowledges these agencies, mechanisms for integrating these other risk reduction activities would increase seismic safety in the nation. · A significant gap exists between the production and utilization of knowledge. There is a real need to reduce this gap through the program and quicken the pace of knowledge application. · NEHRP agency representatives work in very complex and competitive environments. The agencies housing NEHRP activities have other missions and priorities. Thus any changes to NEHRP must be sensitive to these environments and address the organizational and financial capabilities needed to implement them successfully. · Earthquake forecasting has been a useful tool in furthering community mitigation and preparedness actions. Perhaps earthquake prediction deserves to be revisited, especially given the advances that have been made in forecasting, accumulated knowledge in the earth sciences, and in relevant technology. 10
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