Preventing Earthquake Disasters

THE GRAND CHALLENGE IN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING

A Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES)

Committee to Develop a Long-Term Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES)

Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering Preventing Earthquake Disasters THE GRAND CHALLENGE IN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING A Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Committee to Develop a Long-Term Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0135915. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization that provided support for the project. Cover: Medieval illustration of biblical earthquake (woodcut, 1493, Germany). Style of buildings is typical of late-Gothic architecture in Germany. Reproduced courtesy of the National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering, University of California, Berkeley. The Kozak Collection. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09064-4 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-52723-6 (PDF) Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering COMMITTEE TO DEVELOP A LONG-TERM RESEARCH AGENDA FOR THE NETWORK FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING SIMULATION (NEES) WILLIAM F. MARCUSON III, Chair, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (retired), Vicksburg, Mississippi GREGORY C. BEROZA, Stanford University, Stanford, California JACOBO BIELAK, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh REGINALD DESROCHES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta ELDON M. GATH, Earth Consultants International, Tustin, California ROBERT D. HANSON, University of Michigan (retired), Ann Arbor ELIZABETH A. HAUSLER, University of California, Berkeley ANNE S. KIREMIDJIAN, Stanford University, Stanford, California JAMES R. MARTIN II, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Blacksburg DON E. MIDDLETON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DOUGLAS J. NYMAN, D.J. Nyman and Associates, Houston FREDRIC RAICHLEN, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena ANDREW TAYLOR, KPFF Consulting Engineers, Seattle RICHARD N. WRIGHT, National Institute of Standards and Technology (retired), Montgomery Village, Maryland Staff RICHARD G. LITTLE, Project Director KERI H. MOORE, Project Officer, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (until January 2003) DANA CAINES, Financial Associate PATRICIA WILLIAMS, Project Assistant

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering BOARD ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE CONSTRUCTED ENVIRONMENT PAUL GILBERT, Chair, Parsons, Brinckerhoff, Quade, and Douglas, Seattle MASSOUD AMIN, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis RACHEL DAVIDSON, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York REGINALD DESROCHES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta DENNIS DUNNE, California Department of General Services, Sacramento PAUL FISETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst YACOV HAIMES, University of Virginia, Charlottesville HENRY HATCH, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (retired), Oakton, Virginia AMY HELLING, Georgia State University, Atlanta SUE McNEIL, University of Illinois, Chicago DEREK PARKER, Anshen+Allen, San Francisco DOUGLAS SARNO, The Perspectives Group, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia WILL SECRE, Masterbuilders, Inc., Cleveland DAVID SKIVEN, General Motors Corporation, Detroit MICHAEL STEGMAN, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill DEAN STEPHAN, Charles Pankow Builders (retired), Laguna Beach, California ZOFIA ZAGER, County of Fairfax, Virginia CRAIG ZIMRING, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Staff RICHARD G. LITTLE, Director, Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment LYNDA L. STANLEY, Executive Director, Federal Facilities Council MICHAEL COHN, Project Officer DANA CAINES, Financial Associate JASON DREISBACH, Research Associate PATRICIA WILLIAMS, Project Assistant

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering Preface BACKGROUND The George E. Brown, Jr., Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) is a collaboratory for integrated experimentation, computation, theory, databases, and model-based simulation in earthquake engineering research and education intended to improve the seismic design and performance of the U.S. civil and mechanical infrastructure. Administered by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NEES is mandated to be operational by September 30, 2004. The NEES collaboratory will include 16 geographically distributed, shared-use, next-generation earthquake engineering experimental research equipment installations, with teleobservation and teleoperation capabilities networked through the Internet. (Appendix A in this report provides information about the equipment installations.) In addition to providing access for telepresence at the NEES equipment sites, the network will use cutting-edge tools to link high-performance computational and data-storage facilities, including a curated repository for experimental and analytical earthquake engineering data. The network will also provide distributed physical and numerical simulation capabilities and resources for the visualization of experimental and computational data. Through NEES, the earthquake engineering community will use advanced experimental capabilities to test and validate analytical and computerized numerical models that are more complex and comprehensive than ever. When the results of the NEES effort are adopted into building codes and

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering incorporated into existing and new buildings and infrastructure, they will improve the seismic design and performance of our nation’s civil and mechanical systems. The NEES equipment includes new and upgraded shake tables, centrifuges, an enlarged tsunami wave basin, large-scale laboratory experimentation systems, and field experimentation and monitoring installations. NEES is envisioned as a new paradigm for earthquake engineering research. To take advantage of NEES’s unique capabilities, NSF requested the assistance of the National Research Council (NRC) in developing a long-term research agenda. The purpose of the NRC effort was both to develop a process for identifying research needs and to consult stakeholders in framing the important questions to be addressed through NEES. The long-term research agenda will guide the next generation of earthquake engineering research and shape the conduct of a program of great national and international importance. THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE NATIONAL RESEACH COUNCIL In response to the request to review the NEES program and to offer recommendations for conducting a long-term research program, the NRC assembled an independent panel of experts, the Committee to Develop a Long-Term Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES), under the auspices of the Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment. The 14 members of the committee have expertise in seismology, earthquake engineering, theoretical structural dynamics, computer modeling and simulation, experimental methods for structures, soil dynamics, coastal engineering, behavior of lifeline infrastructure, group facilitation and consensus building, technology applications for distance learning and remote collaboration, research management, risk assessment, and loss estimation. Members are involved in the major U.S. organizations of the earthquake risk-reduction community (e.g., the Seismological Society of America, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, the American Society of Civil Engineers, and the Association of Engineering Geologists). They have had leading roles in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program since its inception in 1978 and attend the major national and international conferences on earthquake risk reduction. (Biographical information about the committee members is provided in Appendix B.)

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering THE STATEMENT OF TASK The committee was asked to perform the following tasks: Articulate a dynamic, stakeholder-inclusive process for determining research needs that is capable of utilizing the multi-modal research capability embodied by NEES and assess how NEES might fundamentally change the paradigm for earthquake engineering research. Identify the principal issues in earthquake engineering (e.g., structural [connections, soil/structure interaction, lifeline dynamics, tsunami effects, materials, reinforced concrete, steel, masonry, wood], appropriate investigative techniques), and possible synergies arising from an integrated research approach that incorporates analysis, computational modeling, simulation, and physical testing. Assess and comment on the possible roles of information and communication technologies for collaborative on-site and remote research, the sharing of data (including the need for standardization in data reporting), metadata, and simulation codes, and identify additional research resources that are not currently available. Produce a long-term (at least 10 years) research plan based on the short-, intermediate-, and long-term goals developed through the research needs process; identify general programs to achieve them, the estimated costs and benefits, and a business model for the involvement of industry, government (at all levels), and academia in the program. Task 1 is addressed in Chapter 5 and by Recommendation 4. In addition, stakeholder involvement in the committee’s process for determining research needs is described in Chapter 5 and Appendix E. Tasks 2 and 3 are addressed in Chapters 2 and 4, respectively. In response to Task 4, a research plan and business model are presented in Chapter 5. ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT Chapter 1 provides a brief overview of the threat posed by earthquakes, the contributions of earthquake engineering research to reducing that risk, a brief description of NEES, and the role anticipated for NEES in future research. Chapter 2 discusses research issues in the seven topical areas (seismology, tsunamis, geotechnical engineering, buildings, lifelines, risk assessment, and public policy) that the committee believes are key to achieving the prevention of earthquake disasters. Chapter 3 discusses the role of NEES in grand challenge research, outlines several grand challenge research ideas, and presents several examples of how NEES equipment sites could be configured to carry out collaborative research propos-

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering als. Chapter 4 discusses the potential impact and possible roles of new information and communications technologies with respect to earthquake engineering research and how these new and evolving technologies will affect NEES. Chapter 4 also considers the issues associated with teleobservation and teleparticipation in research, as well as sharing, archiving, and mining data. Chapter 5 presents the committee’s research plan. Chapter 6 presents the committee’s overall conclusions and specific recommendations on the role of NSF and NEES in preventing earthquake disasters. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report represents the efforts of many individuals and organizations. On behalf of the Committee to Develop a Long-Term Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES), I would like to acknowledge and thank all the engineers and scientists who made presentations to us both in person and via teleconferencing as well as the organizations that supported them. These presentations were informative, understandable, and concise. I want to express my appreciation to members of the committee for candidly expressing their opinions and views. Composed of engineers and scientists interested in earthquake engineering research generally and in the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation specifically, the committee truly represents a cross section of the earthquake engineering profession. The members made substantial contributions to this report and gave unselfishly of their time to ensure its timely completion. Lastly, I want to thank Richard G. Little and other members of the National Research Council staff for their hard work and conscientious efforts on behalf of the committee. William. F. Marcuson III, Chair Committee to Develop a Long-Term Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES)

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Jill H. Andrews, California Institute of Technology, Eddie Bernard, NOAA-Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Susan Cutter, University of South Carolina, William J. Hall, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, James O. Jirsa, University of Texas at Austin, Chris D. Poland, Degenkolb Engineers, Robert V. Whitman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Mary Lou Zoback, U.S. Geological Survey. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Clarence

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering Allen, California Institute of Technology. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   PREVENTING DISASTERS: THE GRAND CHALLENGE FOR EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH   12      The Earthquake Hazard,   12      Earthquake Engineering Research, the National Science Foundation, and NEES,   14      Earthquake Research Centers,   14      The Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES),   15      The Grand Challenge of Earthquake Engineering,   18      Earthquake Engineering Successes,   20      Incorporation of Current Seismic Standards in the Nation’s Building Codes,   20      Government/Industry Cooperation to Develop an Innovative Structural System,   22      Efforts to Improve the Resilience of Lifeline Infrastructure,   22      Performance-Based Seismic Design,   23      References,   25 2   ISSUES IN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH   26      Seismology,   28      Ground Motion,   28      Earthquake Sources,   29

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering      Earthquake Simulation,   29      Path Effects,   30      Wave Effects,   31      Site Effects,   32      Soil-Foundation-Structure Interaction,   32      Ground Motion Prediction,   33      Tsunamis,   34      Tsunami Generation,   34      Historical Impacts,   34      Tsunamis in Waiting,   36      Mitigation Measures,   37      Knowledge Gaps,   39      Geotechnical Engineering,   40      Soil Failure and Earthquake Damage,   40      Soil Improvement Measures,   43      Amplification of Ground Motion,   45      Buildings,   46      Prediction of the Seismic Capacity and Performance of Existing and New Buildings,   46      Evaluation of Nonstructural Systems,   48      Performance of Soil-Foundation-Structure Interaction Systems,   49      Determination of the Performance of Innovative Materials and Structures,   49      Lifelines,   50      Highways, Railroads, and Mass Transit Systems,   51      Ports and Air Transportation Systems,   53      Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Systems,   53      Communications,   54      Gas and Liquid-Fuel Systems,   54      Water and Sewage Systems,   55      Industrial Systems,   55      Risk Assessment,   56      Public Policy,   57      References,   60 3   NEES AND GRAND CHALLENGE RESEARCH   63      The Vision for NEES,   63      Grand Challenge Research,   67      Economical Methods for Retrofit of Existing Structures,   67      Cost-Effective Solutions to Mitigate Seismically Induced Ground Failures Within Our Communities,   67      Full Suite of Standards for Affordable Performance-Based Seismic Design,   68

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering      Convincing Loss Prediction Models to Guide Zoning and Land Use Decisions,   69      Continuous Operation of Critical Infrastructure Following Earthquakes,   70      Prediction and Mitigation Strategies for Coastal Areas Subject to Tsunamis,   70      The NEES Contribution to Grand Challenge Research,   71      Some Examples of Possible NEES Involvement in Meeting the Grand Challenge,   71      Characterizing Soil-Foundation-Structure Interaction,   71      Predicting Building Response to Damaging Earthquakes,   77      Framing Public Policy Discussions,   80      The Promise of NEES,   82      References,   83 4   REVOLUTIONIZING EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH THROUGH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY   84      Foundations for NEES,   88      Collaborative Environments and Directions,   89      Managing, Curating, and Sharing Data,   91      Beyond Experimentation: Simulation, Data Analysis, Visualization, and Knowledge Systems,   95      Building Community,   98      Education and Outreach,   98      References,   99 5   ACHIEVING THE GRAND CHALLENGE: A RESEARCH PLAN FOR NEES   102      Basis for Planning,   102      The Research Plan for NEES,   103      Stakeholder Involvement in Developing the Research Plan,   105      Goals for Research,   106      Seismology,   106      Tsunamis,   107      Geotechnical Engineering,   109      Buildings,   111      Lifelines,   112      Risk Assessment,   113      Public Policy,   115      Expected Benefits of the NEES Research Plan,   116      Seismology,   116      Tsunamis,   116      Geotechnical Engineering,   116

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering      Buildings,   117      Lifelines,   117      Risk Assessment,   117      Public Policy,   118      Implementing the Research Plan,   118      The NEES Business Model,   118      A Stakeholder-Inclusive Process for Guiding NEES Research,   120      Securing Society Against Catastrophic Earthquake Losses,   121      Funding for NEES,   121      References,   123 6   RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MEETING THE GRAND CHALLENGE   124     APPENDIXES         A The George E. Brown, Jr., Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation   135     B Biographies of Committee Members   148     C Time Line of Precipitating Events, Discoveries, and Improvements in Earthquake Engineering, 1811-2004   156     D Agendas for the Committee’s Public Meetings   167     E The Stakeholder Forum   171

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering Figures, Tables, and Sidebars FIGURES 1.1   An aerial photo of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) line near the Denali fault, looking west,   23 1.2   Comparison of retrofitted and unimproved concrete bridge columns following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake,   24 2.1   Nested linkages of activities and disciplines that NEES will bring to the resolution of earthquake engineering problems,   27 2.2   A view of damage in Aonae, a small town on Okushiri, an island in the Sea of Japan, from the 1993 Hokkaido tsunami and related fire,   35 2.3   Foundation failures resulting from liquefaction, 1964 Niigata, Japan, earthquake,   42 2.4   Embankment failure due to liquefaction at the Lower Van Norman Dam, 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake,   43 2.5   Collapse of the Cypress Avenue Freeway, 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake,   46 2.6   Structural damage to masonry building resulting from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake,   47 2.7   Nonstructural building damage at the Olive View Medical Center experienced in the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake,   48 2.8   Failure of a span of the Nishinomiya Bridge during the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake,   52

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering 2.9   Lateral highway offset of 2.5 meters as a result of the 2002 Denali, Alaska, earthquake,   52 2.10   A sociotechnical system view for decision making,   58 3.1   The NEES concept for remote collaboration in analysis, experimentation, simulation, and testing in earthquake engineering research,   64 4.1   An AccessGrid session on NEESgrid,   90 4.2   Visualization of the wave propagation in a layer over a half space due to an earthquake generated over an extended strike-slip fault,   97 5.1   Distribution of costs in the EERI research and action plan budget for fiscal years 2004 to 2023,   122 TABLES ES.1   Summary of Topical Problems and Challenges for Earthquake Engineering Research,   4 1.1   Summary of NEES Equipment Awards,   19 A.1   NEES Equipment Awards,   138 SIDEBARS 1.1   Economic Cost of Selected Earthquakes,   13 1.2   A Note on Annualized Risk,   14 1.3   The Value of Earthquake Engineering Research,   16 1.4   The NEES Vision for Collaboration,   18 3.1   International Benefits of NEES Research,   66 3.2   NEES and the Graduate Researcher,   72 4.1   Collaboratories, the Grid, Cyberinfrastructure, and the Future of Science and Engineering,   86

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering Acronyms ANSS Advanced National Seismic System COSMOS Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems EERI Earthquake Engineering Research Institute FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GIS geographic information system IRIS Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology IT information technology MAST multiaxial subassemblage testing MEMS microelectromechanical system(s) MRE major research equipment MUST-SIM multiaxial full-scale substructures testing and simulation NEES Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation NEHRP National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRC National Research Council NSF National Science Foundation

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Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering PBSD performance-based seismic design PEER Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center PITAC President’s Information Technology Advisory Committee SCEC Southern California Earthquake Center SFSI soil-foundation-structure interaction SIG single-investigator grantee SUNY State University of New York