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APPENDIX A
CLIMATE CHANGE FEEDBACKS
WORKSHOP
BOULDER, COLORADO
AUGUST 13-16' 2001
AGENDA
Monday, August 13
8:30 A.M. Introductions, discussion of the motivation for the
workshop, its objectives, the ensuing study process, etc.
Dennis Hartmann
9:00 A.M. Keynote talk: "Perspectives on climate change science and
where we need to be going"
Jerry Mahlman
10:00 A.M. Broad policy and scientific issues associated with
characterizing and reducing feedback uncertainty.
Session Chair: Dan Sarewitz
· Issues viewed from the top
0 Policy implications of characterizing and reducing
feedback uncertainty Neal Lane
· Science
0 Implications of multiple climate change diagnostics
for uncertainties in climate system properties Peter
Stone
0 Reducing feedback uncertainty in climate models—
Syukuro Manabe
137
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138
UNDERSTANDING CLIME TE CHANGE FEEDBACKS
· Policy
A framework for assessing the nonlinear interactions
between multiple climate feedbacks Bill Rossow
o Prioritizing the policy relevance of climate change
feedback research Robert Lempert
o Climate change feedbacks within a broad policy
context Roger Pielke, Jr.
2:00 P.M. Lapse rate, water vapor, and cloud feedbacks
Session Chair: Dian Seidel
Session Rapporteur: David Randall
Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks Brian Soden
Interactions between global warming and stratospheric
ozone depletion—Drew Shindell
Cloud feedbacks—Graeme Stephens
Indirect cloud feedbacks~raham Feingold
Panel discussion—Stephens, Rossow, Soden, Feingold,
Shindell, Sherwood
Tuesday, August 14
8:30 A.M. Ocean circulation and biogeochemical feedbacks on climate
change
Session Chair: Lynne Talley
Session Rapporteur: Andrew Weaver
Thermohaline circulation changes Peter Gent
Other ocean circulation feedbacks Jim McWilliams
Sea ice feedback—Doug Martinson
Marine biogeochemistry Tony Michaels
Panel discussion Gent, Talley, Semtner, Martinson,
McWilliams, Plato, Gruber, Michaels, Lynch, Najjar, and
Levitus
1:45 P.M. Influence of natural modes of variability
Session Chair: Gene Rasmusson
Session Rapporteur: Tony Busalacchi
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APPENDIXA
ENSO and other Pacific modes Kevin Trenberth
Annular mode Mike Wallace
Atlantic modes of variability Jim Hurrell
· Panel discussion Hurrell, Wallace, Shindell, Trenberth
Clement, Lukas, Meehl
Wednesday, August 15
8:30 A.M. Terrestrial feedbacks
Session Chair: Eric Wood
Session Rapporteur: Gordon Bonan
139
· Overview Bob Dickinson
Soil moisture feedback—Alan Betts
· Snow cover feedback Dennis Lettenmaier
· Carbon cycle feedbacks—Richard Houghton
· Vegetation feedbacks—Roger Pielke, Sr.
· Panel discussion—Dickinson, Wofsy, Lettenmaier, Betts,
Pielke Sr.
Synthesis: "Probabilistic Approaches to Determine the
Relative and Absolute Importance of Different Sources of
Uncertainty for Projections of Future Global-mean
Temperature Change"
Tom Wigley
Presentations by Rapporteurs summarize key issues in a
forward-looking manner for each of the workshop's earlier
sessions. The emphasis will be on what we need to do
differently or better, rather than on simply restating the
current state of the science.
Thursday, August 16
8:30 A.M. Synthesis~ontinued
Workshop leaders summarize the key points from the
previous day's discussion and then open up the meeting for a
discussion of the "next steps" in which science needs to
proceed to make progress on characterizing and reducing
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140
UNDERSTANDING CLIAL4TE CHANGE FEEDBACKS
climate change feedback uncertainties.
10:45 A.M. Closed Session
Closed session deliberations of the NRC Panel.
Agenda Postscript:
Because atmospheric chemistry was given only minor attention at this
workshop, the Panel subsequently enlisted Michael Prather as a consultant to
provide additional input.
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APPENDIXA
MEETING PARTICIPANTS
Panel on Climate Change Feedbacks
Dennis Hartmann (Chair) University of Washington
Alan Betts Atmospheric Research
Gordon Bonan National Center for Atmospheric Research
Lee Branscome Environment Dynamics Research, Inc.
Tony Busalacchi University of Maryland
Amanda Lynch University of Colorado
Syukuro Manabe Princeton University
Douglas Martinson Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia
University
Pennsylvania State University
University of Maryland
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration Aeronomy Laboratory
Columbia University
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration Air Resources Laboratory
Colorado State University
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University
of California at San Diego
University of Washington
University of Victoria
Harvard University
Princeton University
Raymond Najjar
Eugene Rasmusson
A. R. Ravishankara
Daniel Sarewitz
Dian Seidel
Graeme Stephens
Lynne Talley
John M. Wallace
Andrew Weaver
Steven Wofsy
Eric Wood
Anjuli Banzai
Roger Barry
Maurice Blackman
David Carson
John Christy
Amy Clement
Robert Dickinson
Randy Dole
141
Participants
National Science Foundation
University of Colorado
National Center for Atmospheric Research
World Climate Research Programme
University of Alabama-Huntsville
University of Miami
Georgia Institute of Technology
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
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142 UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE FEEDBACKS
Mark Eakin National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Graham Feingold National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Peter Gent National Center for Atmospheric Research
Chuck Hakkarinen Electric Power Research Institute
Andrew Heidinger National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Marty Hoerling National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Richard Houghton Woods Hole Research Center
Jim Hurrell National Center for Atmospheric Research
Neal Lane Rice University
David Legler U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability
Program Office
Robert Lempert RAND Corporation
Sydney Levitus National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Johnny Linn University of Colorado
Roger Lukas University of Hawaii
Mike MacCracken U.S. Global Change Research Program
Jerry Mahlman University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research
Jerry Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research
Tony Michaels University of Southern California
Chris Miller National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Jeff Miroche University of Colorado
Mitch Moncrieff National Center for Atmospheric Research
George Ohring National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Roger Pielke, Jr. National Center for Atmospheric Research
Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado State University
Robert Pincus National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
David Randall Colorado State University
Aaron Rivers University of Colorado
William Rossow National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Peter Schultz National Research Council
Bert Semtner Naval Research Laboratory
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APPENDIXA
Steve Sherwood
Drew Shindell
Andrew Slater
Tony Socci
Brian Soden
Jud Stailey
Peter Stone
Yogesh Sud
Kevin Trenberth
Rodney Viereck
Warren Washington
Peter Webster
Tom Wigley
Sam Williamson
143
Yale University
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
University of Colorado
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory
Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorology
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Headquarters
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University of Colorado
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorology
Representative terms from entire chapter:
change feedbacks