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un Review of the Army Corps of Engineers . R Ill l ~ l , ..~ ~ FEASIBILITY STUDY . Committee to Review the Corps of Engineers Restructured Upper Mississippi River-lllinois Waterway Draft Feasibility Study Water Science and Technology Board Division on Earth and Life Sciences Transportation Research Board NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu .

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for ap- propriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. DACW17-03-C-0003 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Army. Any opinions, findings, conclu- sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project International Standard Book Number 0-309-09133-0 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-52965-4 (PDF) The Upper Mississippi River-Illinois R7ate~ay Draft Feasibility Study: Interim Report is avail- able from National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Wash- ington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metro- politan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Cover design by Michael Dudzik, the National Academies Press. Photos courtesy of John Boland, Johns Hopkins University and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers websites: http://www.mvr.ausace.army.mil/navdata/Pics/12~92~.jpg and ~,~ ~ . Photo on back cover cour- tesy of Jon Duyvejonck, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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TI Ir ~ I ATOMS I A I A ~ A Ire `~ - _ _ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ I`~l _ ~~ _ Y' JO A _ AL ~/~` I _1 ~ ~ _V A ~ ' I i' ' ~ ' r ~ ~ ~ a' `. ~ Risers lo Ine Ideation on event ~ineeung, alla Mealane The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating so- ciety of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedi- cated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the char- ter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors en- gineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS RESTRUCTURED UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER-ILLINOIS WATERWAY DRAFT EASIBILITY STUDY JOHN J. BOLAND, Chair, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland PATRICK BREZONIK, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis ROBERT K. DAVIS, University of Colorado, Boulder (retired) LEO M. EISEL, Brown and Caldwell, Golden, Colorado STEPHEN W. FULLER, Texas A&M University, College Station GERALD E. GALLOWAY, Titan Corporation, Fairfax, Virginia LESTER B. LAVE, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania I OCR for page R1

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Preface The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has a long history of managing navigation, floods, and other water-related issues on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. A recent chapter in that history is the problem of wa- terway congestion at several locks on the lower portion of the Upper Mis- sissippi River. Barges and other vessels must often wait in queues to transit these locks, with delays ranging from several hours to several days. The Corps has studied this problem and its possible solutions since the late 1980s, producing a draft feasibility study in 2000 and an interim report on a restructured feasibility study in 2002. The restructured feasibility study is scheduled for completion late in 2004. This committee was convened to review and provide advice on the most recent phase of the Corps' analytical efforts. The extended duration of the Corps' study is a result of the issue's considerable complexity and of Corps efforts in correctly framing the issue as a systems-level problem, as well as the sometimes conflicting economic and cultural values related to managing this huge and valuable river system. This report follows the committee's initial meeting, in which discus- sions with the Corps, several stakeholders, and among ourselves led to sev- eral first impressions and recommendations regarding the Corps' ongoing restructured feasibility study. Although our committee has much to learn about the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers, waterway traffic, and river ecology, we have been impressed by the complexity of these issues and . . v''

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. . . acts Preface their importance for local people and communities, the nation at large, and the role of U.S. grain production in the world. We look forward to learning . . . more as our investigation proceec as. We thank the Corps' professional staff for providing an abundance of relevant information in a timely and helpful manner. At our September 2003 meeting in Washington, D.C., we spoke with Brigadier General Don- ald Riley, Colonel Duane Gapinski, and Corps study team members Denny Lundburg, Kenneth Barr, and Richard Manguno, among others. We have also received excellent advice and assistance from William Dawson and Richard Worthington at Corps Headquarters in Washington. In speaking with these Corps staff and in learning more about the study, we have come to respect the pressures under which they are operating and appreciate the open exchanges of ideas and information we have had with them. We also appreciated the opportunity to speak with and learn from Christopher Bre- scia, Scott Faber, Rick Moore, Holly Stoerker, and Sander Toth at our Sep- tember 2003 meeting. This report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with the proce- dures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following for their reviews of this report: Phillip Baumel, Iowa State University; Stanley A. Changnon, University of Illinois; lose A. Gomez-Ibanez, Harvard Univer- sity; tames Heaney, University of Colorado; Leroy Poff, Colorado State University; Herald L. Schnoor, University of Iowa; and Leonard Shabman, Resources for the Future. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Walter R. Lynn, Cornell University, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and by Frank H. Stillinger, Princeton University, appointed by the NRC's Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an inde-

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Preface MIX pendent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with in- stitutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully consid- ered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. The committee is particularly grateful for the hard work and wise coun- sel of the prior NRC committee that reviewed the Corps' 2000 draft feasi- bility study and was chaired by Lester Lave. We have also benefited from the constant assistance and support of NRC staff members, including Stephen Parker, Steve Godwin, Joseph Morris, and Anita Hall. Finally, we are most indebted to Study Director Jeffrey Jacobs for the smooth and ef- fective conduct of this review, as well as the considerable achievement of making 11 authors seem to speak in a single voice. John ). Boland, Chair

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER-ILLINOIS WATERWAY Introduction, 6 Information Needs for the UMR-IWW Feasibility Study, 11 2 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Spatial Price Model and Essence, 22 Managing Waterway Congestion, 25 Integrated Systems Planning, 27 Decisions, Implementation, and Institutions, 30 Engineering, 34 REFERENCES APPENDIX A - SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS AND THE U.S. GRAIN SECTOR APPENDIX B - NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL BOARD MEMBERSHIP AND STAFF APPENDIX C - COMMITTEE MEMBER AND STAFF BIOGRAPHIES x 1 6 22 37 39 45 49

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