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The Dynamic of Factors of Ethnopolitical Conflicts in Post-Sovie! States* Valery A. Tishkov Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences The following indicators were developed and are distributed in the format of an annual survey at scientific seminars to members of the Early Warning Network, who monitor ethnic relations across Russia and in other parts of the former Soviet Union. Participants are asked to evaluate the sociopolitical situation in their states or regions in three ways, assign- ing points based on the following criteria. Using a scale of -2, -1, O. +1, +2, respondents assign a rating to each indicator as to the positive or negative development of concrete ethnopolitical factors in the given period. A "-2" rating would indicate a significant aggravation of factors and their consequences, while a "+2" would indicate a significant improvement in the situation. Using a scale of 0, 1, 2, respondents assign value to the role of each factor in the composition of the ethnopolitical situation. A "2" rating would indicate a relatively strong influence, while a "O" rating would indicate no influence. Using a scale of 0, 1, 2, the respondents indicate the level of their confidence in each sphere represented by the indicators. The results of these surveys are then compiled and compared with data from previous years to determine the changing levels of ethnic tensions over time. The 46 items included in the survey are listed in Table 1. *Excerpt from Tishkov, V. A., and Ye. I. Filippova, eds. 2001. Interethnic Relations and Conflicts in Post-Soviet States, Annual Report, 2000. Moscow: Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, RAS. The introduction has been summarized. Translation and summary by Rita S. Guenther. 215

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216 APPENDIX D TABLE 1 Indicators of Ethnopolitical Conflicts in Post-Soviet States Category No. Indicator 1. Environment 1 Condition of water (drinking, irrigation, water ways, and resources industry related) 2 Soil resources (quality and cost, quantity per person, access, forests and other arable lands) 3 Natural wealth (use, access, user, dividends) 4 Technological influence (hazardous facilities, emissions, waste, seizure of property by right of eminent domain, compensation) 5 Disasters and catastrophes (natural disasters, ecological disasters, industrial disasters, provoked disasters) 2. Demography 6 Resettlement (dynamic of numbers, ethnic proportions, and migration degree and dynamic of urbanization) 7 Mixed marriages and divorce 8 Natural movements of populations (birth rates, mortality, life expectancy) 9 Mechanized movements of population (migration, refugees and dislocated persons, temporary residents) 3. Power, State, 10 State administrative status and Politics 11 Doctrine and regime of power (federalism, Unitarianism, local control, parties and movements, elections and change of power, state programs of various levels) 12 Ethnic representation (in authoritative positions, in business, in the informational, science, and education spheres) 13 Relations of the center to the periphery (legal foundations, negotiations, contacts, advantages and degree of burden) 14 Human rights and collective rights (legal well-being, violations, control, legal rights protection) 15 Social order and control over weapons, legal investigations, and the implementation of court decisions 16 Competence and authority of power and leaders 17 Official symbolism and calendars 4. Economics and 18 Production and dynamic of prices the social sphere 19 Income level and disparity of income 20 Employment and unemployment 21 Distribution of labor (by ethnicity, region, industry, level of societies, exchange of services, trade mediation, prestige of occupation) 22 Socioprofessional mobility (advancement of ethnic groups, change of status in labor activities, existence of marginalized peoples and their composition) 23 Participation in privatization, purchase and sale of land continues

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APPENDIX D TABLE 1 Continued 217 No. Indicator 24 State of social protection Crime and communal violence 5. Culture, 26 Cultural domination education, and 27 Religious life (composition and changes of denominations; information presence of/access to places of worship; ability to conduct rites and rituals; presence and state of sacred objects, leaders, and proselytizing activity; role in the state, region, and community) 28 Language status (laws and instructions, language of power, business, education, information and intergroup contacts) 29 Primary and secondary education (access, infrastructure, guarantees, makeup of teaching staff, teaching materials) 30 Higher education (conditions of admission, makeup of student body, contents of programs, student life) 31 Mass media (structure, composition, control, character of the program, ethnic composition of journalists and television correspondents) 32 Traditional holidays and rituals (conditions, support of power structures, political coloring, participation of various groups of the population) Historical discourse 6. Contacts and 34 Group demands and complaints stereotypes 35 Previous conflicts and collective trauma 36 Ethnic stereotypes (positive, negative, prevalence and use, offensive nicknames, official counteractions) 37 Change in self-consciousness (correlation of ethnic and civic, local and regional revival of old identities and the formation of new identities) 40 38 Myths, fears, and rumors 39 Presence of group idea and ideologies Level of tolerance (intergroup hate, skirmishes and violence) 7. External 41 Presence and influence of diasporas conditions 42 Stability/instability of neighboring and bordering regions and countries 43 Influence of global rivalry 44 Territorial claims and problems of borders 45 External connections and cooperation 46 Changing external image (of a country, region, republic, people, community, regime in a region, republic, country, or world)

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. . Other Russian Officials and Specialists Consulted During the Project Moscow, Russia April 2000 Yavus Akhmadov, Professor and Member of Coordinating Council Sergey Arutyunov, Head of Caucasus Department, Institute for Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences Aleksandr Blokhin, Minister, Ministry of Nationalities Valentin Bushkov, Head of Middle East Department, Institute for Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences Ramazdan Daurov, Chief Expert for the Caucasus, Institute for Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Oksana Demiankov, Executive Assistant to Deputy Minister, Ministry of Education Yelena Filippova, Senior Researcher, Institute for Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Furman, Senior Specialist, Institute for Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences Dzhabrail Gakaev, Chair of Coordinating Council for Chechen Societies in Moscow Andrey Kokoshin, Director, Institute for Security Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Aleksandr Kondakov, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Education Vladimir Kudryavisev, Vice President, Presidium, Russian Academy of ~ - ~clences Sergey Nikolaev, Chief for International Cooperation, Ministry of Nationalities 218

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APPENDIX D 219 Vladimir Pavlenko, Chief of North Caucasus Department, Ministry of Nationalities Vladimir Podolin, Chief of Department for Crisis and Reconstruction, Ministry of Nationalities Andrey Nikolaevich Sakharov, Director, Institute of History, Russian Academy of Sciences Umar Temirov, Staff Director, Duma Committee on Nationalities Aleksandr Tkachiev, Chair, Duma Committee on Nationalities Yury Ushanov, Deputy Director, Institute for Security Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Yegorov, Chief of Social Sciences Department, Presidium, Russian Academy of Sciences Anatoly Yomskov, Head of Conflict Solutions Department, Institute for Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences

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Chronology of Events Throughout the Project February 2000 The Russian Academy of Sciences proposes an interacademy project on Conflicts in Multiethnic Societies. April 2000 A National Academies team of scholars visits Moscow and consults with Russian academy officials, scholars, and government officials on ethnic-related developments in the former Soviet Union and on the feasibility and importance of an interacademy project. June 2000 The Academies agree on the goals and character of the project, and the project begins. October 2000 A National Academies team of scholars consults with Russian officials and scholars in Moscow, and then travels to Rostov-on-Don where officials and specialists from 12 republics and oblasts of the Southern Federal District assemble in response to an invitation from the Russian Academy of Sciences to participate in consultations. December 2000 The Russian Academy of Sciences hosts an interacademy Symposium on States in Transition and the Challenge of Ethnic Conflict attended by more than 75 Russian and American scholars and officials. June 2001 Professor Valery Tishkov, representing the Russian Academy of Sciences on this project, visits Washington, D.C., to meet with the National Research Council Committee on Conflict and Reconstruction in Multiethnic Societies and plan the next phase of the project. 220

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APPENDIX D 221 October 2001 Three working groups of Russian and American scholars are established to discuss, respectively, collective violence; culture, identity, and conflict; and comparative study of identity conflicts; they begin communicating via e-mail. December 2001 The three working groups meet in Washington, D.C., to prepare proposals on research priorities. The proposals are presented at an interacademy workshop in Washington attended by 30 scholars and policy officials from Russia and the United States. In preparation for the workshop, three Russian policy officials consult with American officials and scholars in Washington. The day before the workshop, President Putin's office informs Vladimir Yu. Zorin, a workshop participant, that he had been appointed Minister of Nationalities. lanuary 2002 President Putin's Representative for the Volga Federal District, Sergey V. Kirienko, speaks on ethnic and religious relations in Russia to an audience of 35 government officials and scholars at the National Academies. lanuary 2002 Representatives of the Academies begin discussions of the next phase of cooperation.

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